947 resultados para Mean field models


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Wave breaking in the open ocean and coastal zones remains an intriguing yet incompletely understood process, with a strong observed association with wave groups. Recent numerical study of the evolution of fully nonlinear, two-dimensional deep water wave groups identified a robust threshold of a diagnostic growth-rate parameter that separated nonlinear wave groups that evolved to breaking from those that evolved with recurrence. This paper investigates whether these deep water wave-breaking results apply more generally, particularly in finite-water-depth conditions. For unforced nonlinear wave groups in intermediate water depths over a flat bottom, it was found that the upper bound of the diagnostic growth-rate threshold parameter established for deep water wave groups is also applicable in intermediate water depths, given by k(0) h greater than or equal to 2, where k(0) is the mean carrier wavenumber and h is the mean depth. For breaking onset over an idealized circular arc sandbar located on an otherwise flat, intermediate-depth (k(0) h greater than or equal to 2) environment, the deep water breaking diagnostic growth rate was found to be applicable provided that the height of the sandbar is less than one-quarter of the ambient mean water depth. Thus, for this range of intermediate-depth conditions, these two classes of bottom topography modify only marginally the diagnostic growth rate found for deep water waves. However, when intermediate-depth wave groups ( k(0) h greater than or equal to 2) shoal over a sandbar whose height exceeds one-half of the ambient water depth, the waves can steepen significantly without breaking. In such cases, the breaking threshold level and the maximum of the diagnostic growth rate increase systematically with the height of the sandbar. Also, the dimensions and position of the sandbar influenced the evolution and breaking threshold of wave groups. For sufficiently high sandbars, the effects of bottom topography can induce additional nonlinearity into the wave field geometry and associated dynamics that modifies the otherwise robust deep water breaking-threshold results.

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A one-year field study was conducted to determine the conversion ratio of phytoplankton biomass carbon (Phyto-C) to chlorophyll-a (Chl-a) in Jiaozhou Bay, China. We measured suspended particulate organic carbon (POC) and phytoplankton Chl-a samples collected in surface water monthly from March 2005 to February 2006. The temporal and spatial variations of Chl-a and POC concentrations were observed in the bay. Based on the field measurements, a linear regression model II was used to generate the conversion ratio of Phyto-C to Chl-a. In most cases, a good linear correlation was found between the observed POC and Chl-a concentrations, and the calculated conversion ratios ranged from 26 to 250 with a mean value of 56 A mu g A mu g(-1). The conversion ratio in the fall was higher than that in the winter and spring months, and had the lowest values in the summer. The ratios also exhibited spatial variations, generally with low values in the near shore regions and relatively high values in offshore waters. Our study suggests that temperature was likely to be the main factor influencing the observed seasonal variations of conversion ratios while nutrient supply and light penetration played important roles in controlling the spatial variations.

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Application of long-term exploration for oil and gas shows that the reservoir technology of prediction is one of the most valuable methods. Quantitative analysis of reservoir complexity is also a key technology of reservoir prediction. The current reservoir technologies of prediction are based on the linear assumption of various physical relationships. Therefore, these technologies cannot handle complex reservoirs with thin sands, high heterogeneities in lithological composition and strong varieties in petrophysical properties. Based on the above-mentioned complex reservoir, this paper conducts a series of researches. Both the comprehending and the quantitative analysis of reservoir heterogeneities have been implemented using statistical and non-linear theories of geophysics. At the beginning, the research of random media theories about reservoir heterogeneities was researched in this thesis. One-dimensional (1-D) and two-dimensional (2-D) random medium models were constructed. The autocorrelation lengths of random medium described the mean scale of heterogeneous anomaly in horizontal and deep directions, respectively. The characteristic of random medium models were analyzed. We also studied the corresponding relationship between the reservoir heterogeneities and autocorrelation lengths. Because heterogeneity of reservoir has fractal nature, we described heterogeneity of reservoir by fractal theory based on analyzing of the one-dimensional (1-D) and two-dimensional (2-D) random medium models. We simulated two-dimensional (2-D) random fluctuation medium in different parameters. From the simulated results, we can know that the main features of the two-dimensional (2-D) random medium mode. With autocorrelation lengths becoming larger, scales of heterogeneous geologic bodies in models became bigger. In addition, with the autocorrelation lengths becoming very larger, the layer characteristic of the models is very obvious. It would be difficult to identify sandstone such as gritstone, clay, dense sandstone and gas sandstone and so on in the reservoir with traditional impedance inversion. According to the obvious difference between different lithologic and petrophysical impedance, we studied multi-scale reservoir heterogeneities and developed new technologies. The distribution features of reservoir lithological and petrophysical heterogeneities along vertical and transverse directions were described quantitatively using multi-scale power spectrum and heterogeneity spectrum methods in this paper. Power spectrum (P spectrum) describes the manner of the vertical distribution of reservoir lithologic and petrophysical parameters and the large-scale and small-scale heterogeneities along vertical direction. Heterogeneity spectrum (H spectrum) describes the structure of the reservoir lithologic and petrophysical parameters mainly, that is to say, proportional composition of each lithological and petrophysical heterogeneities are calculated in this formation. The method is more reasonable to describe the degree of transverse multi-scale heterogeneities in reservoir lithological and petrophysical parameters. Using information of sonic logs in Sulige oil field, two spectral methods have been applied to the oil field, and good analytic results have been obtained. In order to contrast the former researches, the last part is the multi-scale character analysis of reservoir based on the transmission character of wave using the wavelet transform. We discussed the method applied to demarcate sequence stratigraphy and also analyzed the reservoir interlayer heterogeneity.

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As powerful tools to study the lithosphere dynamics, the effective elastic thickness (Te) as well as the envelope of yielding stress of lithosphere have been attracted great attention of geoscientists in the past thirty years. The oceanic lithosphere, contrary to the continental lithosphere, has more fruits for its simple structures and evolution process. In continent, the lithosphere commonly is complex and variable in the rheological, thermal structures, and has a complicated history. Therefore, the application of the effective elastic thickness in continent is still a subject to learn in a long time. Te, with the definition of the thickness of an elastic plate in theory flexured by the equal benging of the real stress in the lithosphere plate (Turcotte, 1982), marks the depth of transition between elastic and fluid behaviors of rocks subjected to stress exceeding 100 MPa over the geological timescales (McNutt, 1990). There are three methods often adapted: admittance or isostatic response function, coherence and forwarding. In principle, the models of Te consist of thermal-rheological, non-linear Maxwell, non-linear work hardening and rheological layered models. There is a tentative knowledge of Te that it is affected by the following factors: crustal thickness, crust-mantle decoupling, plate bending, boundary conditions of plate (end forces and bending moments), stress state, sedimentary layer, faulting effect, variation in the mountain belts' strike, foreland basin, inheritance of tectonic evolution, convection of mantle, seismic depth and lithosphere strength. In this thesis, the author introduces the geological sketch of the Dabie collisional orogenic belt and the Hefei Basin. The Dabie Mts. is famous for the ultra-high pressure metamorphism. The crustal materials subducted down to the depth of at least 100 km and exhumed. So that the front subjects arise such as the deeply subduction of continent, and the post-collisional crust-mantle interaction. In a geological journey at June of 1999, the author found the rarely variolitic basaltic andesite in the Dabie Mts. It occurs in Susong Group, near Zhifenghe Countryside, Susong County, Anhui Province. It is just to the south of the boundary between the high-grade Susong melange and the ultra-high grade South Dabie melange. It has a noticeable knobby or pitted appearance in the surface. The size of the varioles is about 1-4 mm. In hand-specimen and under microscope, there are distinct contacts between the varioles and the matrice. The mineralogy of the varioles is primarily radiate plagioclase, with little pyroxene, hornblende and quartz. The pyroxene, hornblende and quartz are in the interstices between plagioclase. The matrix is consisted of glass, and micro-crystals of chlorite, epidote and zoisite. It is clearly subjected and extensive alteration. The andesite has an uncommon chemical composition. The SiO_2 content is about 56.8%, TiO_2 = 0.9%, MgO = 6.4%, (Fe_2O_3)_(Total) = 6.7% ~ 7.6%, 100 Mg/(Mg+Fe) = 64.1 ~ 66.2. Mg# is significantly high. The andesite has higher abundances of large-lithophile trace elements (e.g. K, Ba, Sr, LREE), e.g. La/Nd = 5.56-6.07, low abundances of high-strength-field elements (HFSE, e.g. Ta, Nb, P, Ti), particularly Ta and Nb strongly depleted. These are consistent with the characteristics of subducted-related magmas (Pearcce, 1982; Sun and McDonaugh, 1989). In the spider diagram of trace elements, from Ce to right hand, the abundances of elements decrease quickly, showing a characteristic of the continental margins (Pearce, 1982). There has a strongly enrichment of light-rare-earth elements, with a significant diffraction of REEs (the mean value of (La/Yb)_N is 32.84). No Eu anomaly, but there are anomaly high (La/Yb)_N = 28.63-36.74, (La/Y)_N = 70.33 - 82.84. The elements Y and Yb depleted greatly, Y < 20 ppm, Y_N = 2.74-2.84, Yb_N = 2.18 - 2.35. From the La-(La/Sm) diagram, the andesite is derived from partial melting. But the epsilone value of Nd is -18.7 ~ -19.2, so that the material source may be the mantle materials affected by the crustal materials. The Nd model age is 1.9 Ga indicating that the basaltic andesite was resulted from the post-collisional crust-mantle interaction between the subducted Yangze carton and the mantle of Sino-Korea carton. To obtain the Te of the lithosphere beneath the Dabie Mts. and the Hefei Basin, the author applies the coherence method in this thesis. The author makes two topography-gravity profiles (profiles 7~(th) and 9~(th)) across the Dabie Mts. and the Hefei Basin, and calculates the auto-coherence, across coherence, power spectrum, across power spectrum of the topography and gravity of the two profiles. From the relationships between the coherence and the wave-number of profiles. From the relationships between the coherence and the wave-number of profiles 7~(th) and 9~(th), it is obtained that the characteristic wavelengths respectively are 157 km and 126 km. Consequently the values of effective elastic thickness are 6.5 km and 4.8 km, respectively. However, the Te values merely are the minimum value of the lithosphere because the coherencemethod in a relative small region will generate a systemic underestimation. Why there is a so low Te value? In order to check the strength of the lithosphere beneath the Dabie Mts., the authore tries to outline the yielding-stress envelope of the lithosphere. It is suggested that the elastic layers in the crust and upper mantle are 18 km and 35 km, respectively. Since there exist a low viscosity layer about 3-5 km thickness, so it is reasonable that the decoupling between the crust and mantle occurred. So the effective thickness of the lithosphere can be estimated from the two elastic layers. Te is about 34 km. This is the maximum strength of the lithosphere. We can make an approximately estimation about the strength of the lithosphere beneath the Dabie Mts.: Te is about 20-30 km. The author believes that the following factors should be responsible for the low Te value: (1) the Dabie Mts. has elevated strongly since K_3-J_1. The north part of the Dabie Mts. elevates faster than the south part today; (2) there occur large active striking faults in this area. And in the east, the huge Tan-Lu striking fault anyway tends to decrease the lithosphere strength; (3) the lithosphere beneath the Dabie Mts. is heter-homogeneous in spatio-temporal; (4) the study area just locates in the adjacent region between the eastern China where the lithosphere thickness is significantly reduced and the normal western China. These factors will decrease the lithosphere strength.

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3D wave equation prestack depth migration is the effective tool for obtaining the exact imaging result of complex geology structures. It's a part of the 3D seismic data processing. 3D seismic data processing belongs to high dimension signal processing, and there are some difficult problems to do with. They are: How to process high dimension operators? How to improve the focusing? and how to construct the deconvolution operator? The realization of 3D wave equation prestack depth migration, not only realized the leap from poststack to prestack, but also provided the important means to solve the difficult problems in high dimension signal processing. In this thesis, I do a series research especially for the solve of the difficult problems around the 3D wave equation prestack depth migration and using it as a mean. So this thesis service for the realization of 3D wave equation prestack depth migration for one side and improve the migration effect for another side. This thesis expatiates in five departs. Summarizes the main contents as the follows: In the first part, I have completed the projection from 3D data point area to low dimension are using de big matrix transfer and trace rearrangement, and realized the liner processing of high dimension signal. Firstly, I present the mathematics expression of 3D seismic data and the mean according to physics, present the basic ideal of big matrix transfer and describe the realization of five transfer models for example. Secondly, I present the basic ideal and rules for the rearrange and parallel calculate of 3D traces, and give a example. In the conventional DMO focusing method, I recall the history of DM0 process firstly, give the fundamental of DMO process and derive the equation of DMO process and it's impulse response. I also prove the equivalence between DMO and prestack time migration, from the kinematic character of DMO. And derive the relationship between DMO base on wave equation and prestack time migration. Finally, I give the example of DMO process flow and synthetic data of theoretical models. In the wave equation prestak depth migration, I firstly recall the history of migration from time to depth, from poststack to prestack and from 2D to 3D. And conclude the main migration methods, point out their merit and shortcoming. Finally, I obtain the common image point sets using the decomposed migration program code.In the residual moveout, I firstly describe the Viterbi algorithm based on Markov process and compound decision theory and how to solve the shortest path problem using Viterbi algorithm. And based on this ideal, I realized the residual moveout of post 3D wave equation prestack depth migration. Finally, I give the example of residual moveout of real 3D seismic data. In the migration Green function, I firstly give the concept of migration Green function and the 2D Green function migration equation for the approximate of far field. Secondly, I prove the equivalence of wave equation depth extrapolation algorithms. And then I derive the equation of Green function migration. Finally, I present the response and migration result of Green function for point resource, analyze the effect of migration aperture to prestack migration result. This research is benefit for people to realize clearly the effect of migration aperture to migration result, and study on the Green function deconvolution to improve the focusing effect of migration.

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A molecular mechanics field, Alchemy II, was utilized to model the chiral recognition between S-N-acetyl-alpha-methyl-alpha-naphthylamine and (R, S)-N-(3, 5-dinitrophrnyl)-alpha-methyl-benzeneacetamide and between beta-cyclodextrin and (R, S)-fenoprofen. Some preliminary results have: been obtained to sustain the three-point action models and the induce-fit action in enantiorecognition.

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Based on social survey data conducted by local research group in some counties executed in the nearly past five years in China, the author proposed and solved two kernel problems in the field of social situation forecasting: i) How can the attitudes’ data on individual level be integrated with social situation data on macrolevel; ii) How can the powers of forecasting models’ constructed by different statistic methods be compared? Five integrative statistics were applied to the research: 1) algorithm average (MEAN); 2) standard deviation (SD); 3) coefficient variability (CV); 4) mixed secondary moment (M2); 5) Tendency (TD). To solve the former problem, the five statistics were taken to synthesize the individual and mocrolevel data of social situations on the levels of counties’ regions, and form novel integrative datasets, from the basis of which, the latter problem was accomplished by the author: modeling methods such as Multiple Regression Analysis (MRA), Discriminant Analysis (DA) and Support Vector Machine (SVM) were used to construct several forecasting models. Meanwhile, on the dimensions of stepwise vs. enter, short-term vs. long-term forecasting and different integrative (statistic) models, meta-analysis and power analysis were taken to compare the predicting power of each model within and among modeling methods. Finally, it can be concluded from the research of the dissertation: 1) Exactly significant difference exists among different integrative (statistic) models, in which, tendency (TD) integrative models have the highest power, but coefficient variability (CV) ones have the lowest; 2) There is no significant difference of the power between stepwise and enter models as well as short-term and long-term forecasting models; 3) There is significant difference among models constructed by different methods, of which, support vector machine (SVM) has the highest statistic power. This research founded basis in all facets for exploring the optimal forecasting models of social situation’s more deeply, further more, it is the first time methods of meta-analysis and power analysis were immersed into the assessments of such forecasting models.

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We seek to both detect and segment objects in images. To exploit both local image data as well as contextual information, we introduce Boosted Random Fields (BRFs), which uses Boosting to learn the graph structure and local evidence of a conditional random field (CRF). The graph structure is learned by assembling graph fragments in an additive model. The connections between individual pixels are not very informative, but by using dense graphs, we can pool information from large regions of the image; dense models also support efficient inference. We show how contextual information from other objects can improve detection performance, both in terms of accuracy and speed, by using a computational cascade. We apply our system to detect stuff and things in office and street scenes.

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Background: Ototoxicity is a known side effect of combined radiation therapy and cisplatin chemotherapy for the treatment of medulloblastoma. the delivery of an involved field boost by intensity modulated radiation therapy (IMRT) may reduce the dose to the inner ear when compared with conventional radiotherapy. the dose of cisplatin may also affect the risk of ototoxicity. A retrospective study was performed to evaluate the impact of involved field boost using IMRT and cisplatin dose on the rate of ototoxicity.Methods: Data from 41 medulloblastoma patients treated with IMRT were collected. Overall and disease-free survival rates were calculated by Kaplan-Meier method Hearing function was graded according to toxicity criteria of Pediatric Oncology Group (POG). Doses to inner ear and total cisplatin dose were correlated with hearing function by univariate and multivariate data analysis.Results: After a mean follow-up of 44 months (range: 14 to 72 months), 37 patients remained alive, with two recurrences, both in spine with CSF involvement, resulting in a disease free-survival and overall survival of 85.2% and 90.2%, respectively. Seven patients (17%) experienced POG Grade 3 or 4 toxicity. Cisplatin dose was a significant factor for hearing loss in univariate analysis (p < 0.03). in multivariate analysis, median dose to inner ear was significantly associated with hearing loss (p < 0.01). POG grade 3 and 4 toxicity were uncommon with median doses to the inner ear bellow 42 Gy (p < 0.05) and total cisplatin dose of less than 375 mg/m(2) (p < 0.01).Conclusions: IMRT leads to a low rate of severe ototoxicity. Median radiation dose to auditory apparatus should be kept below 42 Gy. Cisplatin doses should not exceed 375 mg/m(2).

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This paper considers forecasting the conditional mean and variance from a single-equation dynamic model with autocorrelated disturbances following an ARMA process, and innovations with time-dependent conditional heteroskedasticity as represented by a linear GARCH process. Expressions for the minimum MSE predictor and the conditional MSE are presented. We also derive the formula for all the theoretical moments of the prediction error distribution from a general dynamic model with GARCH(1, 1) innovations. These results are then used in the construction of ex ante prediction confidence intervals by means of the Cornish-Fisher asymptotic expansion. An empirical example relating to the uncertainty of the expected depreciation of foreign exchange rates illustrates the usefulness of the results. © 1992.

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BACKGROUND: Dropouts and missing data are nearly-ubiquitous in obesity randomized controlled trails, threatening validity and generalizability of conclusions. Herein, we meta-analytically evaluate the extent of missing data, the frequency with which various analytic methods are employed to accommodate dropouts, and the performance of multiple statistical methods. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: We searched PubMed and Cochrane databases (2000-2006) for articles published in English and manually searched bibliographic references. Articles of pharmaceutical randomized controlled trials with weight loss or weight gain prevention as major endpoints were included. Two authors independently reviewed each publication for inclusion. 121 articles met the inclusion criteria. Two authors independently extracted treatment, sample size, drop-out rates, study duration, and statistical method used to handle missing data from all articles and resolved disagreements by consensus. In the meta-analysis, drop-out rates were substantial with the survival (non-dropout) rates being approximated by an exponential decay curve (e(-lambdat)) where lambda was estimated to be .0088 (95% bootstrap confidence interval: .0076 to .0100) and t represents time in weeks. The estimated drop-out rate at 1 year was 37%. Most studies used last observation carried forward as the primary analytic method to handle missing data. We also obtained 12 raw obesity randomized controlled trial datasets for empirical analyses. Analyses of raw randomized controlled trial data suggested that both mixed models and multiple imputation performed well, but that multiple imputation may be more robust when missing data are extensive. CONCLUSION/SIGNIFICANCE: Our analysis offers an equation for predictions of dropout rates useful for future study planning. Our raw data analyses suggests that multiple imputation is better than other methods for handling missing data in obesity randomized controlled trials, followed closely by mixed models. We suggest these methods supplant last observation carried forward as the primary method of analysis.

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Axisymmetric radiating and scattering structures whose rotational invariance is broken by non-axisymmetric excitations present an important class of problems in electromagnetics. For such problems, a cylindrical wave decomposition formalism can be used to efficiently obtain numerical solutions to the full-wave frequency-domain problem. Often, the far-field, or Fraunhofer region is of particular interest in scattering cross-section and radiation pattern calculations; yet, it is usually impractical to compute full-wave solutions for this region. Here, we propose a generalization of the Stratton-Chu far-field integral adapted for 2.5D formalism. The integration over a closed, axially symmetric surface is analytically reduced to a line integral on a meridional plane. We benchmark this computational technique by comparing it with analytical Mie solutions for a plasmonic nanoparticle, and apply it to the design of a three-dimensional polarization-insensitive cloak.

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This paper presents a comparison of fire field model predictions with experiment for the case of a fire within a compartment which is vented (buoyancydriven) to the outside by a single horizontal ceiling vent. Unlike previous work, the mathematical model does not employ a mixing ratio to represent vent temperatures but allows the model to predict vent temperatures a priori. The experiment suggests that the flow through the vent produces oscillatory behaviour in vent temperatures with puffs of smoke emerging from the fire compartment. This type of flow is also predicted by the fire field model. While the numerical predictions are in good qualitative agreement with observations, they overpredict the amplitudes of the temperature oscillations within the vent and also the compartment temperatures. The discrepancies are thought to be due to three-dimensional effects not accounted for in this model as well as using standard ‘practices’ normally used by the community with regards to discretization and turbulence models. Furthermore, it is important to note that the use of the k–ε turbulence model in a transient mode, as is used here, may have a significant effect on the results. The numerical results also suggest that a linear relationship exists between the frequency of vent temperature oscillation (n) and the heat release rate (Q0) of the type n∝Q0.290, similar to that observed for compartments with two horizontal vents. This relationship is predicted to occur only for heat release rates below a critical value. Furthermore, the vent discharge coefficient is found to vary in an oscillatory fashion with a mean value of 0.58. Below the critical heat release rate the mean discharge coefficient is found to be insensitive to fire size.

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This work is concerned with the development of a numerical scheme capable of producing accurate simulations of sound propagation in the presence of a mean flow field. The method is based on the concept of variable decomposition, which leads to two separate sets of equations. These equations are the linearised Euler equations and the Reynolds-averaged Navier–Stokes equations. This paper concentrates on the development of numerical schemes for the linearised Euler equations that leads to a computational aeroacoustics (CAA) code. The resulting CAA code is a non-diffusive, time- and space-staggered finite volume code for the acoustic perturbation, and it is validated against analytic results for pure 1D sound propagation and 2D benchmark problems involving sound scattering from a cylindrical obstacle. Predictions are also given for the case of prescribed source sound propagation in a laminar boundary layer as an illustration of the effects of mean convection. Copyright © 1999 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.