Geodetic mass balance of Azarova glacier, Kodar Mountains, eastern Siberia, and its links to observed and projected climatic change

The Kodar Mountains in eastern Siberia accommodate 30 small, cold-based glaciers with a combined surface area of about 19 km2. Very little is known about these glaciers, with the first survey conducted in the late 1950s. In this paper, we use terrestrial photogrammetry to calculate changes in surface area, elevation, volume and geodetic mass balance of the Azarova Glacier between 1979 and 2007 and relate these to meteorological data from nearby Chara weather station (1938-2007). The glacier surface area declined by 20±6.9% and surface lowered on average by 20±1.8 m (mean thinning: 0.71 m a-1) resulting in a strongly negative cumulative and average mass balance of -18±1.6 m w.e. and -640±60 mm w.e.a-1 respectively. The July-August air temperature increased at a rate of 0.036oC a-1 between 1979 and 2007 and the 1980-2007 period was, on average, around 1oC warmer than 1938-1979. The regional climate projections for A2 and B2 CO2 emission scenarios developed using PRECIS regional climate model indicate that summer temperatures will increase in 2071–2100 by 2.6-4.7°C and 4.9-6.2°C respectively in comparison with 1961–1990. The annual total of solid precipitation will increase by 20% under B2 scenario but decline by 3% under A2 scenario. The length of the ablation season will extend from July–August to June-September. The Azarova Glacier exhibits high sensitivity to climatic warming due to its low elevation, exposure to comparatively high summer temperatures, and the absence of a compensating impact of cold season precipitation. Further summer warming and decline of solid precipitation projected under the A2 scenario will force Azarova to retreat further while impacts of an increase in solid precipitation projected under the B2 scenario require further investigation.

Estimating relationships between air mass origin and chemical composition

Observations of a chemical at a point in the atmosphere typically show sudden transitions between episodes of high and low concentration. Often these are associated with a rapid change in the origin of air arriving at the site. Lagrangian chemical models riding along trajectories can reproduce such transitions, but small timing errors from trajectory phase errors dramatically reduce the correlation between modeled concentrations and observations. Here the origin averaging technique is introduced to obtain maps of average concentration as a function of air mass origin for the East Atlantic Summer Experiment 1996 (EASE96, a ground-based chemistry campaign). These maps are used to construct origin averaged time series which enable comparison between a chemistry model and observations with phase errors factored out. The amount of the observed signal explained by trajectory changes can be quantified, as can the systematic model errors as a function of air mass origin. The Cambridge Tropospheric Trajectory model of Chemistry and Transport (CiTTyCAT) can account for over 70% of the observed ozone signal variance during EASE96 when phase errors are side-stepped by origin averaging. The dramatic increase in correlation (from 23% without averaging) cannot be achieved by time averaging. The success of the model is attributed to the strong relationship between changes in ozone along trajectories and their origin and its ability to simulate those changes. The model performs less well for longer-lived chemical constituents because the initial conditions 5 days before arrival are insufficiently well known.

The effects of variation in snow properties on snow mass estimation using the Chang algorithm

Estimating snow mass at continental scales is difficult but important for understanding landatmosphere interactions, biogeochemical cycles and Northern latitudes’ hydrology. Remote sensing provides the only consistent global observations, but the uncertainty in measurements is poorly understood. Existing techniques for the remote sensing of snow mass are based on the Chang algorithm, which relates the absorption of Earth-emitted microwave radiation by a snow layer to the snow mass within the layer. The absorption also depends on other factors such as the snow grain size and density, which are assumed and fixed within the algorithm. We examine the assumptions, compare them to field measurements made at the NASA Cold Land Processes Experiment (CLPX) Colorado field site in 2002–3, and evaluate the consequences of deviation and variability for snow mass retrieval. The accuracy of the emission model used to devise the algorithm also has an impact on its accuracy, so we test this with the CLPX measurements of snow properties against SSM/I and AMSR-E satellite measurements.

Highly accurate detection of ovarian cancer using CA125 but limited improvement with serum matrix-assisted laser desorption/ionization time-of-flight mass spectrometry profiling

Objectives: Our objective was to test the performance of CA125 in classifying serum samples from a cohort of malignant and benign ovarian cancers and age-matched healthy controls and to assess whether combining information from matrix-assisted laser desorption/ionization (MALDI) time-of-flight profiling could improve diagnostic performance. Materials and Methods: Serum samples from women with ovarian neoplasms and healthy volunteers were subjected to CA125 assay and MALDI time-of-flight mass spectrometry (MS) profiling. Models were built from training data sets using discriminatory MALDI MS peaks in combination with CA125 values and tested their ability to classify blinded test samples. These were compared with models using CA125 threshold levels from 193 patients with ovarian cancer, 290 with benign neoplasm, and 2236 postmenopausal healthy controls. Results: Using a CA125 cutoff of 30 U/mL, an overall sensitivity of 94.8% (96.6% specificity) was obtained when comparing malignancies versus healthy postmenopausal controls, whereas a cutoff of 65 U/mL provided a sensitivity of 83.9% (99.6% specificity). High classification accuracies were obtained for early-stage cancers (93.5% sensitivity). Reasons for high accuracies include recruitment bias, restriction to postmenopausal women, and inclusion of only primary invasive epithelial ovarian cancer cases. The combination of MS profiling information with CA125 did not significantly improve the specificity/accuracy compared with classifications on the basis of CA125 alone. Conclusions: We report unexpectedly good performance of serum CA125 using threshold classification in discriminating healthy controls and women with benign masses from those with invasive ovarian cancer. This highlights the dependence of diagnostic tests on the characteristics of the study population and the crucial need for authors to provide sufficient relevant details to allow comparison. Our study also shows that MS profiling information adds little to diagnostic accuracy. This finding is in contrast with other reports and shows the limitations of serum MS profiling for biomarker discovery and as a diagnostic tool

Evaluation of peak-picking algorithms for protein mass spectrometry

Peak picking is an early key step in MS data analysis. We compare three commonly used approaches to peak picking and discuss their merits by means of statistical analysis. Methods investigated encompass signal-to-noise ratio, continuous wavelet transform, and a correlation-based approach using a Gaussian template. Functionality of the three methods is illustrated and discussed in a practical context using a mass spectral data set created with MALDI-TOF technology. Sensitivity and specificity are investigated using a manually defined reference set of peaks. As an additional criterion, the robustness of the three methods is assessed by a perturbation analysis and illustrated using ROC curves.

Stereoscopic imaging of an Earth-impacting solar coronal mass ejection: a major milestone for the STEREO mission

We present stereoscopic images of an Earth-impacting Coronal Mass Ejection (CME). The CME was imaged by the Heliospheric Imagers onboard the twin STEREO spacecraft during December 2008. The apparent acceleration of the CME is used to provide independent estimates of its speed and direction from the two spacecraft. Three distinct signatures within the CME were all found to be closely Earth-directed. At the time that the CME was predicted to pass the ACE spacecraft, in-situ observations contained a typical CME signature. At Earth, ground-based magnetometer observations showed a small but widespread sudden response to the compression of the geomagnetic cavity at CME impact. In this case, STEREO could have given warning of CME impact at least 24 hours in advance. These stereoscopic observations represent a significant milestone for the STEREO mission and have significant potential for improving operational space weather forecasting.

Critical Mass: Sermon for the Church of the Atom (part of A Theatre to Address at Arnolfini, Bristol and Late at Tate Britain)

A Theatre to Address explores the work of contemporary artists who use text as both a visual and sonic form. In this programme, text appears not primarily as a means of communication, but as something which has shape and structure of its own. The Reading Room will also be displaying work that looks at text as concrete or visual poetry, and the script in artists' practice. Clare Gasson presents a new work The traveller - walking walking walking through ... that explores the connection between the text, the rhythm and the action. Maryam Jafri presents a performance-lecture Death With Friends, a body of visual and textual material that forms the basis for her new film of the same name. Pil and Galia Kollectiv present a radical worship for the apocalypse, featuring a sermon for the Church of the Atom with live music by Gelbart.

Changes in fat, fat-free mass and body water in human normal pregnancy

Measurements of body weight, total body water and total body potassium (40K) were made serially on three occasions during pregnancy and once post partum in 27 normal pregnant women. Skinfold thickness and fat cell diameter were also measured. A model of body composition was formulated to permit the estimation of changes in fat, lean tissue and water content of the maternal body. Total maternal body fat increased during pregnancy, reaching a peak towards the end of the second trimester before diminishing. Serial measurements of fat cell diameter showed poor correlation, whilst total body fat calculated from skinfold thickness correlated well with our estimated values for total body fat in pregnancy.

Evolution of coronal mass ejection morphology with increasing heliocentric distance. II. In Situ observations

Interplanetary coronal mass ejections (ICMEs) are often observed to travel much faster than the ambient solar wind. If the relative speed between the two exceeds the fast magnetosonic velocity, then a shock wave will form. The Mach number and the shock standoff distance ahead of the ICME leading edge is measured to infer the vertical size of an ICME in a direction that is perpendicular to the solar wind flow. We analyze the shock standoff distance for 45 events varying between 0.5 AU and 5.5 AU in order to infer their physical dimensions. We find that the average ratio of the inferred vertical size to measured radial width, referred to as the aspect ratio, of an ICME is 2.8 ± 0.5. We also compare these results to the geometrical predictions from Paper I that forecast an aspect ratio between 3 and 6. The geometrical solution varies with heliocentric distance and appears to provide a theoretical maximum for the aspect ratio of ICMEs. The minimum aspect ratio appears to remain constant at 1 (i.e., a circular cross section) for all distances. These results suggest that possible distortions to the leading edge of ICMEs are frequent. But, these results may also indicate that the constants calculated in the empirical relationship correlating the different shock front need to be modified; or perhaps both distortions and a change in the empirical formulae are required.