967 resultados para Markov chains


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Depiction of an analysis of the loads and stress distribution in sideflexing chains revolving in 3D-conveyor systems. The article describes the results of measurements of chain tensile forces under different loads and in different conveyor sections. Consecutively new equations for the tension rise in sliding curves are developed and compared to the measurements.

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Stochastische Einflüsse wirken auf alle elementaren Prozesse einer Lieferkette. Sie äußern sich in variablen Fertigungs-, Transport- oder Durchlaufzeiten sowie Lagerbeständen zur Prozessentkopplung. Die Auswirkungen auf Liefertreue, Vorlaufzeiten, Bestände oder Kos¬ten für die gesamte Supply Chain sind zurzeit nur simulativ abschätzbar. Das hier vorge¬stellte numerische Verfahren kann mit geringem Aufwand ähnliche, statistisch abgesicherte Kennzahlen für das Zeitverhalten liefern.

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We present a new model formulation for a multi-product lot-sizing problem with product returns and remanufacturing subject to a capacity constraint. The given external demand of the products has to be satisfied by remanufactured or newly produced goods. The objective is to determine a feasible production plan, which minimizes production, holding, and setup costs. As the LP relaxation of a model formulation based on the well-known CLSP leads to very poor lower bounds, we propose a column-generation approach to determine tighter bounds. The lower bound obtained by column generation can be easily transferred into a feasible solution by a truncated branch-and-bound approach using CPLEX. The results of an extensive numerical study show the high solution quality of the proposed solution approach.

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A high-resolution α, x-ray, and γ-ray coincidence spectroscopy experiment was conducted at the GSI Helmholtzzentrum für Schwerionenforschung. Thirty correlated α-decay chains were detected following the fusion-evaporation reaction Ca48+Am243. The observations are consistent with previous assignments of similar decay chains to originate from element Z=115. For the first time, precise spectroscopy allows the derivation of excitation schemes of isotopes along the decay chains starting with elements Z>112. Comprehensive Monte Carlo simulations accompany the data analysis. Nuclear structure models provide a first level interpretation.

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This paper reports a comparison of three modeling strategies for the analysis of hospital mortality in a sample of general medicine inpatients in a Department of Veterans Affairs medical center. Logistic regression, a Markov chain model, and longitudinal logistic regression were evaluated on predictive performance as measured by the c-index and on accuracy of expected numbers of deaths compared to observed. The logistic regression used patient information collected at admission; the Markov model was comprised of two absorbing states for discharge and death and three transient states reflecting increasing severity of illness as measured by laboratory data collected during the hospital stay; longitudinal regression employed Generalized Estimating Equations (GEE) to model covariance structure for the repeated binary outcome. Results showed that the logistic regression predicted hospital mortality as well as the alternative methods but was limited in scope of application. The Markov chain provides insights into how day to day changes of illness severity lead to discharge or death. The longitudinal logistic regression showed that increasing illness trajectory is associated with hospital mortality. The conclusion is reached that for standard applications in modeling hospital mortality, logistic regression is adequate, but for new challenges facing health services research today, alternative methods are equally predictive, practical, and can provide new insights. ^

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This paper addresses the rarely studied relationship between job vacancies and inter-firm upward, lateral, and downward status mobility in an occupationally segmented labor market, taking Switzerland as the example. To conceptualize mobility mechanisms in this type of labor market, we introduce the concept of “occupational mobility chains” and test its validity. This concept provides the backdrop for developing time-dependent measures of individual job opportunities based on Swiss Job Monitor data. We link these measures with career data taken from the Swiss Life History Study and employ event history analysis to test different propositions of the ways in which status mobility is contingent on the number and the status of vacant positions. Results support our assumption that in occupationally segmented labor markets vacant positions affect status mobility only to the degree that they are located within workers’ occupational mobility chains.