959 resultados para MODEL-PREDICTIVE CONTROL
Resumo:
Several methods and approaches for measuring parameters to determine fecal sources of pollution in water have been developed in recent years. No single microbial or chemical parameter has proved sufficient to determine the source of fecal pollution. Combinations of parameters involving at least one discriminating indicator and one universal fecal indicator offer the most promising solutions for qualitative and quantitative analyses. The universal (nondiscriminating) fecal indicator provides quantitative information regarding the fecal load. The discriminating indicator contributes to the identification of a specific source. The relative values of the parameters derived from both kinds of indicators could provide information regarding the contribution to the total fecal load from each origin. It is also essential that both parameters characteristically persist in the environment for similar periods. Numerical analysis, such as inductive learning methods, could be used to select the most suitable and the lowest number of parameters to develop predictive models. These combinations of parameters provide information on factors affecting the models, such as dilution, specific types of animal source, persistence of microbial tracers, and complex mixtures from different sources. The combined use of the enumeration of somatic coliphages and the enumeration of Bacteroides-phages using different host specific strains (one from humans and another from pigs), both selected using the suggested approach, provides a feasible model for quantitative and qualitative analyses of fecal source identification.
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BACKGROUND: Left atrial (LA) dilatation is associated with a large variety of cardiac diseases. Current cardiovascular magnetic resonance (CMR) strategies to measure LA volumes are based on multi-breath-hold multi-slice acquisitions, which are time-consuming and susceptible to misregistration. AIM: To develop a time-efficient single breath-hold 3D CMR acquisition and reconstruction method to precisely measure LA volumes and function. METHODS: A highly accelerated compressed-sensing multi-slice cine sequence (CS-cineCMR) was combined with a non-model-based 3D reconstruction method to measure LA volumes with high temporal and spatial resolution during a single breath-hold. This approach was validated in LA phantoms of different shapes and applied in 3 patients. In addition, the influence of slice orientations on accuracy was evaluated in the LA phantoms for the new approach in comparison with a conventional model-based biplane area-length reconstruction. As a reference in patients, a self-navigated high-resolution whole-heart 3D dataset (3D-HR-CMR) was acquired during mid-diastole to yield accurate LA volumes. RESULTS: Phantom studies. LA volumes were accurately measured by CS-cineCMR with a mean difference of -4.73 ± 1.75 ml (-8.67 ± 3.54%, r2 = 0.94). For the new method the calculated volumes were not significantly different when different orientations of the CS-cineCMR slices were applied to cover the LA phantoms. Long-axis "aligned" vs "not aligned" with the phantom long-axis yielded similar differences vs the reference volume (-4.87 ± 1.73 ml vs. -4.45 ± 1.97 ml, p = 0.67) and short-axis "perpendicular" vs. "not-perpendicular" with the LA long-axis (-4.72 ± 1.66 ml vs. -4.75 ± 2.13 ml; p = 0.98). The conventional bi-plane area-length method was susceptible for slice orientations (p = 0.0085 for the interaction of "slice orientation" and "reconstruction technique", 2-way ANOVA for repeated measures). To use the 3D-HR-CMR as the reference for LA volumes in patients, it was validated in the LA phantoms (mean difference: -1.37 ± 1.35 ml, -2.38 ± 2.44%, r2 = 0.97). Patient study: The CS-cineCMR LA volumes of the mid-diastolic frame matched closely with the reference LA volume (measured by 3D-HR-CMR) with a difference of -2.66 ± 6.5 ml (3.0% underestimation; true LA volumes: 63 ml, 62 ml, and 395 ml). Finally, a high intra- and inter-observer agreement for maximal and minimal LA volume measurement is also shown. CONCLUSIONS: The proposed method combines a highly accelerated single-breathhold compressed-sensing multi-slice CMR technique with a non-model-based 3D reconstruction to accurately and reproducibly measure LA volumes and function.
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The reversal of congenital hypogonadotropic hypogonadism (CHH) is a relatively recent phenomenon that has gained increasing attention over the past 10 years. Yet to date, only one prospective study has been conducted estimating that 10% (95% confidence interval [CI]: 2%-18%) of cases undergo reversal. [1] Other retrospective studies have reported rates in the range of 5%-8% [2],[3] and a recent study showed 44/308 (14%, 95% CI: 11%-19%) CHH patients underwent reversal. [4] Moreover, a time-to-event analysis in this large cohort revealed a lifetime reversal incidence of 22%. The article by Mao and colleagues presented in this issue is a meaningful contribution to our understanding of reversal as it examines the largest retrospective cohort to date. [5] Interestingly, they report the rate of reversal as 5% (95% CI: 3%-8%) in this Chinese cohort. It is difficult to reconcile the discrepancies in rates of reversibility and direct comparisons are hampered by the variable definitions employed. Using a novel definition for reversal (i.e, either endogenous testosterone (T) >270 ng dl−1 , serum T gradually increasing above 150 ng dl−1 with increased testicular volume, or normal spontaneous sperm production/normal erectile function/ejaculation), Mao and colleagues posit that testicular size and triptorelin-stimulated LH levels are reliable predictive factors for reversal. However, these cannot be considered as hard and fast rules for predicting reversal as the groups intersect - akin to the overlap observed between CHH patients and those with delayed puberty. Indeed, the fact that approximately half (44%, 95% CI: 25%-66%) of the reversal patients in the study by Mao et al.[5] were diagnosed between 17 and 19 years of age, underscores the challenge in differentiating CHH from extreme normal variants of puberty. This study further lends credence the recently reported observations that reversals may relapse. [4],[6] The notion that reversal may not be lasting highlights the vulnerability of the reproductive axis among CHH patients. While the mechanism(s) for relapse are unclear, it seems plausible that environmental, metabolic or psychiatric stressors could contribute. The factors that Mao and colleagues identify as significantly different in cases of reversal, were not informative for identifying those cases that relapsed back to a hypogonadal state. Notably, reversal has been reported in probands harboring mutations in genes underlying CHH. [1],[3],[4],[6] Unfortunately, comprehensive genetic screening on the Chinese cohort is not available. The reversal phenomenon is fascinating for its glimpse into the plasticity of the neuroendocrine control of reproduction. Future directions will almost certainly include investigation of specific genetic signatures and novel biomarkers for predicting reversal (and relapse). Yet CHH is a rare condition and to fully elucidate the biology of reversible CHH, it will be important to harmonize definitions of what constitutes a reversal, carefully phenotype patients and chart the natural history of their CHH. In this way, this unique human disease model may offer further insights into the control of human reproduction and provide opportunities to translate discoveries into enhanced approaches to improve the care and quality of life for these patients.
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Over the past decade, various implantable devices have been developed to treat diseases that were previously difficult to manage such diabetes, chronic pain, and neurodegenerative disorders. However, translation of these novel technologies into clinical practice is often difficult because fibrotic encapsulation and/or rejection impairs device function after body implantation. Ideally, cells of the host tissue should perceive the surface of the implant being similar to the normal extracellular matrix. Here, we developed an innovative approach to provide implant surfaces with adhesive protein micropatterns. The patterns were designed to promote adhesion of fibroblasts and macrophages by simultaneously suppressing fibrogenic activation of both cell types. In a rat model, subcutaneously implanted silicone pads provided with the novel micropatterns caused 6-fold lower formation of inflammatory giant cells compared with clinical grade, uncoated, or collagen-coated silicone implants. We further show that micropatterning of implants resulted in 2-3-fold reduced numbers of pro-fibrotic myofibroblast by inhibiting their mechanical activation. Our novel approach allows controlled cell attachment to implant surfaces, representing a critical advance for enhanced biointegration of implantable medical devices.
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Maximum entropy modeling (Maxent) is a widely used algorithm for predicting species distributions across space and time. Properly assessing the uncertainty in such predictions is non-trivial and requires validation with independent datasets. Notably, model complexity (number of model parameters) remains a major concern in relation to overfitting and, hence, transferability of Maxent models. An emerging approach is to validate the cross-temporal transferability of model predictions using paleoecological data. In this study, we assess the effect of model complexity on the performance of Maxent projections across time using two European plant species (Alnus giutinosa (L.) Gaertn. and Corylus avellana L) with an extensive late Quaternary fossil record in Spain as a study case. We fit 110 models with different levels of complexity under present time and tested model performance using AUC (area under the receiver operating characteristic curve) and AlCc (corrected Akaike Information Criterion) through the standard procedure of randomly partitioning current occurrence data. We then compared these results to an independent validation by projecting the models to mid-Holocene (6000 years before present) climatic conditions in Spain to assess their ability to predict fossil pollen presence-absence and abundance. We find that calibrating Maxent models with default settings result in the generation of overly complex models. While model performance increased with model complexity when predicting current distributions, it was higher with intermediate complexity when predicting mid-Holocene distributions. Hence, models of intermediate complexity resulted in the best trade-off to predict species distributions across time. Reliable temporal model transferability is especially relevant for forecasting species distributions under future climate change. Consequently, species-specific model tuning should be used to find the best modeling settings to control for complexity, notably with paleoecological data to independently validate model projections. For cross-temporal projections of species distributions for which paleoecological data is not available, models of intermediate complexity should be selected.
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This research examines the impacts of the Swiss reform of the allocation of tasks which was accepted in 2004 and implemented in 2008 to "re-assign" the responsibilities between the federal government and the cantons. The public tasks were redistributed, according to the leading and fundamental principle of subsidiarity. Seven tasks came under exclusive federal responsibility; ten came under the control of the cantons; and twenty-two "common tasks" were allocated to both the Confederation and the cantons. For these common tasks it wasn't possible to separate the management and the implementation. In order to deal with nineteen of them, the reform introduced the conventions-programs (CPs), which are public law contracts signed by the Confederation with each canton. These CPs are generally valid for periods of four years (2008-11, 2012-15 and 2016-19, respectively). The third period is currently being prepared. By using the principal-agent theory I examine how contracts can improve political relations between a principal (Confederation) and an agent (canton). I also provide a first qualitative analysis by examining the impacts of these contracts on the vertical cooperation and on the implication of different actors by focusing my study on five CPs - protection of cultural heritage and conservation of historic monuments, encouragement of the integration of foreigners, economic development, protection against noise and protection of the nature and landscape - applied in five cantons, which represents twenty-five cases studies.
Resumo:
Tutkimus tarkastelee taloudellisia mallintamismahdollisuuksia metsäteollisuuden liiketoimintayksikössä. Tavoitteena on suunnitella ja luoda taloudellinen malli liiketoimintayksikölle, jonka avulla sen tuloksen analysoiminen ja ennustaminen on mahdollista. Tutkimusta tarkastellaan konstruktiivisen tutkimusmenetelmän avulla. Teoreettinen viitekehys tarkastelee olemassa olevan informaation muotoilemista keskittyen tiedon jalostamisen tarpeisiin, päätöksenteon asettamiin vaatimuksiin sekä mallintamiseen. Toiseksi, teoria esittää informaatiolle asetettavia vaatimuksia organisatorisen ohjauksen näkökulmasta.Empiirinen tieto kerätään osallistuvan havainnoinnin avulla hyödyntäen epävirallisia keskusteluja, tietojärjestelmiä ja laskentatoimen dokumentteja. Tulokset osoittavat, että liikevoiton ennustaminen mallin avulla on vaikeaa, koska taustalla vaikuttavien muuttujien määrä on suuri. Tästä johtuen malli täytyykin rakentaa niin, että se tarkastelee liikevoittoa niin yksityiskohtaisella tasolla kuin mahdollista. Testauksessa mallin tarkkuus osoittautui sitä paremmaksi, mitä tarkemmalla tasolla ennustaminen tapahtui. Lisäksi testaus osoitti, että malli on käyttökelpoinen liiketoiminnan ohjauksessa lyhyellä aikavälillä. Näin se luo myös pohjan pitkän aikavälin ennustamiselle.
Resumo:
PURPOSE: According to estimations around 230 people die as a result of radon exposure in Switzerland. This public health concern makes reliable indoor radon prediction and mapping methods necessary in order to improve risk communication to the public. The aim of this study was to develop an automated method to classify lithological units according to their radon characteristics and to develop mapping and predictive tools in order to improve local radon prediction. METHOD: About 240 000 indoor radon concentration (IRC) measurements in about 150 000 buildings were available for our analysis. The automated classification of lithological units was based on k-medoids clustering via pair-wise Kolmogorov distances between IRC distributions of lithological units. For IRC mapping and prediction we used random forests and Bayesian additive regression trees (BART). RESULTS: The automated classification groups lithological units well in terms of their IRC characteristics. Especially the IRC differences in metamorphic rocks like gneiss are well revealed by this method. The maps produced by random forests soundly represent the regional difference of IRCs in Switzerland and improve the spatial detail compared to existing approaches. We could explain 33% of the variations in IRC data with random forests. Additionally, the influence of a variable evaluated by random forests shows that building characteristics are less important predictors for IRCs than spatial/geological influences. BART could explain 29% of IRC variability and produced maps that indicate the prediction uncertainty. CONCLUSION: Ensemble regression trees are a powerful tool to model and understand the multidimensional influences on IRCs. Automatic clustering of lithological units complements this method by facilitating the interpretation of radon properties of rock types. This study provides an important element for radon risk communication. Future approaches should consider taking into account further variables like soil gas radon measurements as well as more detailed geological information.
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Industry's growing need for higher productivity is placing new demands on mechanisms connected with electrical motors, because these can easily lead to vibration problems due to fast dynamics. Furthermore, the nonlinear effects caused by a motor frequently reduce servo stability, which diminishes the controller's ability to predict and maintain speed. Hence, the flexibility of a mechanism and its control has become an important area of research. The basic approach in control system engineering is to assume that the mechanism connected to a motor is rigid, so that vibrations in the tool mechanism, reel, gripper or any apparatus connected to the motor are not taken into account. This might reduce the ability of the machine system to carry out its assignment and shorten the lifetime of the equipment. Nonetheless, it is usually more important to know how the mechanism, or in other words the load on the motor, behaves. A nonlinear load control method for a permanent magnet linear synchronous motor is developed and implemented in the thesis. The purpose of the controller is to track a flexible load to the desired velocity reference as fast as possible and without awkward oscillations. The control method is based on an adaptive backstepping algorithm with its stability ensured by the Lyapunov stability theorem. As a reference controller for the backstepping method, a hybrid neural controller is introduced in which the linear motor itself is controlled by a conventional PI velocity controller and the vibration of the associated flexible mechanism is suppressed from an outer control loop using a compensation signal from a multilayer perceptron network. To avoid the local minimum problem entailed in neural networks, the initial weights are searched for offline by means of a differential evolution algorithm. The states of a mechanical system for controllers are estimated using the Kalman filter. The theoretical results obtained from the control design are validated with the lumped mass model for a mechanism. Generalization of the mechanism allows the methods derived here to be widely implemented in machine automation. The control algorithms are first designed in a specially introduced nonlinear simulation model and then implemented in the physical linear motor using a DSP (Digital Signal Processor) application. The measurements prove that both controllers are capable of suppressing vibration, but that the backstepping method is superior to others due to its accuracy of response and stability properties.
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Mountain regions worldwide are particularly sensitive to on-going climate change. Specifically in the Alps in Switzerland, the temperature has increased twice as fast than in the rest of the Northern hemisphere. Water temperature closely follows the annual air temperature cycle, severely impacting streams and freshwater ecosystems. In the last 20 years, brown trout (Salmo trutta L) catch has declined by approximately 40-50% in many rivers in Switzerland. Increasing water temperature has been suggested as one of the most likely cause of this decline. Temperature has a direct effect on trout population dynamics through developmental and disease control but can also indirectly impact dynamics via food-web interactions such as resource availability. We developed a spatially explicit modelling framework that allows spatial and temporal projections of trout biomass using the Aare river catchment as a model system, in order to assess the spatial and seasonal patterns of trout biomass variation. Given that biomass has a seasonal variation depending on trout life history stage, we developed seasonal biomass variation models for three periods of the year (Autumn-Winter, Spring and Summer). Because stream water temperature is a critical parameter for brown trout development, we first calibrated a model to predict water temperature as a function of air temperature to be able to further apply climate change scenarios. We then built a model of trout biomass variation by linking water temperature to trout biomass measurements collected by electro-fishing in 21 stations from 2009 to 2011. The different modelling components of our framework had overall a good predictive ability and we could show a seasonal effect of water temperature affecting trout biomass variation. Our statistical framework uses a minimum set of input variables that make it easily transferable to other study areas or fish species but could be improved by including effects of the biotic environment and the evolution of demographical parameters over time. However, our framework still remains informative to spatially highlight where potential changes of water temperature could affect trout biomass. (C) 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.-
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Stromal fibroblast senescence has been linked to the aging-associated increase of tumors. However, in epithelial cancer, density and proliferation of cancer associated fibroblasts (CAF) are frequently increased, rather than decreased. We previously showed that genetic deletion or down-modulation of the canonical Notch effector CSL/RBP-JK in dermal fibroblasts is sufficient for CAF activation with consequent development of keratinocyte-derived tumors. We show here that CSL silencing induces senescence of primary fibroblasts from dermis, oral mucosa, breast and lung. CSL functions in these cells as direct repressor of multiple senescence- and CAF-effector genes. It also physically interacts with p53, repressing its activity. CSL is down-modulated in stromal fibroblasts of premalignant skin actinic keratosis lesions and squamous cell carcinomas (SCC), while p53 gene expression and function is down-modulated only in the latter, with paracrine influences of incipient cancer cells as a likely culprit. Concomitant loss of CSL and p53 overcomes fibroblast senescence, enhances CAF effector gene expression and promotes stromal and cancer cell expansion. The findings support a CAF activation/stromal co-evolution model under convergent CSL/p53 control of likely clinical relevance.
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Le cancer testiculaire, bien que peu fréquent, revêt une importance particulière en oncologie ; il représente actuellement un modèle pour optimiser un suivi radiologique tout en essayant de diminuer l'apparition de tumeurs radio-induites.En effet, cette pathologie présente un taux très élevé de survie nécessitant, au vu du jeune âge des patients, des bilans radiologiques à long terme, auxquels pourront être liés des effets secondaires, en particulier les tumeurs secondaires.Afin de diminuer cela, les recommandations de prise en charge ont évolué et les protocoles de radiologie s'améliorent afin d'exposer à moins de rayonnements ionisants pour un résultat identique.Il est donc devenu primordial de maintenir un suivi optimal tout en essayant d'en minimiser la toxicité. Despite being rare cancers, testicular seminoma and non-seminoma play an important role in oncology: they represent a model on how to optimize radiological follow-up, aiming at a lowest possible radiation exposure and secondary cancer risk. Males diagnosed with testicular cancer undergo frequently prolonged follow-up with CT-scans with potential toxic side effects, in particular secondary cancers. To reduce the risks linked to ionizing radiation, precise follow-up protocols have been developed. The number of recommended CT-scanners has been significantly reduced over the last 10 years. The CT scanners have evolved technically and new acquisition protocols have the potential to reduce the radiation exposure further.
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SAMP8 is a strain of mice with accelerated senescence. These mice have recently been the focus of attention as they show several alterations that have also been described in Alzheimer"s disease (AD) patients. The number of dendritic spines, spine plasticity, and morphology are basic to memory formation. In AD, the density of dendritic spines is severely decreased. We studied memory alterations using the object recognition test. We measured levels of synaptophysin as a marker of neurotransmission and used Golgi staining to quantify and characterize the number and morphology of dendritic spines in SAMP8 mice and in SAMR1 as control animals. While there were no memory differences at 3 months of age, the memory of both 6- and 9-month-old SAMP8 mice was impaired in comparison with age-matched SAMR1 mice or young SAMP8 mice. In addition, synaptophysin levels were not altered in young SAMP8 animals, but SAMP8 aged 6 and 9 months had less synaptophysin than SAMR1 controls and also less than 3-month-old SAMP8 mice. Moreover, while spine density remained stable with age in SAMR1 mice, the number of spines started to decrease in SAMP8 animals at 6 months, only to get worse at 9 months. Our results show that from 6 months onwards SAMP8 mice show impaired memory. This age coincides with that at which the levels of synaptophysin and spine density decrease. Thus, we conclude that together with other studies that describe several alterations at similar ages, SAMP8 mice are a very suitable model for studying AD.
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Cognitive impairment in schizophrenia and psychosis is ubiquitous and acknowledged as a core feature of clinical expression, pathophysiology, and prediction of functioning. However, assessment of cognitive functioning is excessively time-consuming in routine practice, and brief cognitive instruments specific to psychosis would be of value. Two screening tools have recently been created to address this issue, i.e., the Brief Cognitive Assessment Tool for Schizophrenia (B-CATS) and the Screen for Cognitive Impairment in Psychiatry (SCIP). The aim of this research was to examine the comparative validity of these two brief instruments in relation to a global cognitive score. 161 patients with psychosis (96 patients diagnosed with schizophrenia and 65 patients diagnosed with bipolar disorder) and 76 healthy control subjects were tested with both instruments to examine their concurrent validity relative to a more comprehensive neuropsychological assessment battery. Scores from the B-CATS and the SCIP were highly correlated in the three diagnostic groups, and both scales showed good to excellent concurrent validity relative to a Global Cognitive Composite Score (GCCS) derived from the more comprehensive examination. The SCIP-S showed better predictive value of global cognitive impairment than the B-CATS. Partial and semi-partial correlations showed slightly higher percentages of both shared and unique variance between the SCIP-S and the GCCS than between the B-CATS and the GCCS. Brief instruments for assessing cognition in schizophrenia and bipolar disorders, such as the SCIP-S and B-CATS, seem to be reliable and promising tools for use in routine clinical practice.
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The objective of my thesis is to assess mechanisms of ecological community control in macroalgal communities in the Baltic Sea. In the top-down model, predatory fish feed on invertebrate mesograzers, releasing algae partly from grazing pressure. Such a reciprocal relationship is called trophic cascade. In the bottom-up model, nutrients increase biomass in the food chain. The nutrients are first assimilated by algae and, via food chain, increase also abundance of grazers and predators. Previous studies on oceanic shores have described these two regulative mechanisms in the grazer - alga link, but how they interact in the trophic cascades from fish to algae is still inadequately known. Because the top-down and bottom-up mechanisms are predicted to depend on environmental disturbances, such as wave stress and light, I have studied these models at two distinct water depths. There are five factorial field experiments behind the thesis, which were all conducted in the Finnish Archipelago Sea. In all the experiments, I studied macroalgal colonization - either density, filament length or biomass - on submerged colonization substrates. By excluding predatory fish and mesograzers from the algal communities, the studies compared the strength of the top-down control to natural algal communities. A part of the experimental units were, in addition, exposed to enriched nitrogen and phosphorus concentrations, which enabled testing of bottom-up control. These two models of community control were further investigated in shallow (<1 m) and deep (ca. 3 m) water. Moreover, the control mechanisms were also expected to depend on grazer species. Therefore different grazer species were enclosed into experimental units and their impacts on macroalgal communities were followed specifically. The community control in the Baltic rocky shores was found to follow theoretical predictions, which have not been confirmed by field studies before. Predatory fish limited grazing impact, which was seen as denser algal communities and longer algal filaments. Nutrient enrichment increased density and filament length of annual algae and, thus, changed the species composition of the algal community. The perennial alga Fucus vesiculosusA and the red alga Ceramium tenuicorne suffered from the increased nutrient availabilities. The enriched nutrient conditions led to denser grazer fauna, thereby causing strong top-down control over both the annual and perennial macroalgae. The strength of the top-down control seemed to depend on the density and diversity of grazers and predators as well as on the species composition of macroalgal assemblages. The nutrient enrichment led to, however, weaker limiting impact of predatory fish on grazer fauna, because fish stocks did not respond as quickly to enhanced resources in the environment as the invertebrate fauna. According to environmental stress model, environmental disturbances weaken the top-down control. For example, on a wave-exposed shore, wave stress causes more stress to animals close to the surface than deeper on the shore. Mesograzers were efficient consumers at both the depths, while predation by fish was weaker in shallow water. Thus, the results supported the environmental stress model, which predicts that environmental disturbance affects stronger the higher a species is in the food chain. This thesis assessed the mechanisms of community control in three-level food chains and did not take into account higher predators. Such predators in the Baltic Sea are, for example, cormorant, seals, white-tailed sea eagle, cod and salmon. All these predatory species were recently or are currently under intensive fishing, hunting and persecution, and their stocks have only recently increased in the region. Therefore, it is possible that future densities of top predators may yet alter the strengths of the controlling mechanisms in the Baltic littoral zone.