Study of n-fold Weibull competing risk model

This paper deals with an n-fold Weibull competing risk model. A characterisation of the WPP plot is given along with estimation of model parameters when modelling a given data set. These are illustrated through two examples. A study of the different possible shapes for the density and failure rate functions is also presented. (C) 2003 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Special twin environments, genetic influences and their effects on the handedness of twins and their siblings

It has been suggested that twinning may influence handedness through the effects of birth order, intra-uterine crowding and mirror imaging. The influence of these effects on handedness (for writing and throwing) was examined in 3657 Monozygotic (MZ) and 3762 Dizygotic (DZ) twin pairs (born 1893-1992). Maximum likelihood analyses revealed no effects of birth order on the incidence of left-handedness. Twins were no more likely to be left-handed than their singleton siblings (n = 1757), and there were no differences between the DZ co-twin and sibling-twin covariances, suggesting that neither intra-uterine crowding nor the experience of being a twin affects handedness. There was no evidence of mirror imaging; the co-twin correlations of monochorionic and dichorionic MZ twins did not differ. Univariate genetic analyses revealed common environmental factors to be the most parsimonious explanation of familial aggregation for the writing-hand measure, while additive genetic influences provided a better interpretation of the throwing hand data.

Estimates of global and regional potential health gains from reducing multiple major risk factors

Background Estimates of the disease burden due to multiple risk factors can show the potential gain from combined preventive measures. But few such investigations have been attempted, and none on a global scale. Our aim was to estimate the potential health benefits from removal of multiple major risk factors. Methods We assessed the burden of disease and injury attributable to the joint effects of 20 selected leading risk factors in 14 epidemiological subregions of the world. We estimated population attributable fractions, defined as the proportional reduction in disease or mortality that would occur if exposure to a risk factor were reduced to an alternative level, from data for risk factor prevalence and hazard size. For every disease, we estimated joint population attributable fractions, for multiple risk factors, by age and sex, from the direct contributions of individual risk factors. To obtain the direct hazards, we reviewed publications and re-analysed cohort data to account for that part of hazard that is mediated through other risks. Results Globally, an estimated 47% of premature deaths and 39% of total disease burden in 2000 resulted from the joint effects of the risk factors considered. These risks caused a substantial proportion of important diseases, including diarrhoea (92%-94%), lower respiratory infections (55-62%), lung cancer (72%), chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (60%), ischaemic heart disease (83-89%), and stroke (70-76%). Removal of these risks would have increased global healthy life expectancy by 9.3 years (17%) ranging from 4.4 years (6%) in the developed countries of the western Pacific to 16.1 years (43%) in parts of sub-Saharan Africa. Interpretation Removal of major risk factors would not only increase healthy life expectancy in every region, but also reduce some of the differences between regions, The potential for disease prevention and health gain from tackling major known risks simultaneously would be substantial.

Determination of the effect of lipophilicity on the in vitro permeability and tissue reservoir characteristics of topically applied solutes in human skin layers

In order to establish the relationship between solute lipophilicity and skin penetration (including flux and concentration behavior), we examined the in vitro penetration and membrane concentration of a series of homologous alcohols (C2-C10) applied topically in aqueous solutions to human epidermal, full-thickness, and dermal membranes. The partitioning/distribution of each alcohol between the donor solution, stratum corneum, viable epidermis, dermis, and receptor phase compartments was determined during the penetration process and separately to isolated samples of each tissue type. Maximum flux and permeability coefficients are compared for each membrane and estimates of alcohol diffusivity are made based on flux/concentration data and also the related tissue resistance (the reciprocal of permeability coefficient) for each membrane type. The permeability coefficient increased with increasing lipophilicity to alcohol C8 (octanol) with no further increase for C10 (decanol). Log vehicle:stratum corneum partition coefficients were related to logP , and the concentration of alcohols in each of the tissue layers appeared to increase with lipophilicity. No difference was measured in the diffusivity of smaller more polar alcohols in the three membranes; however, the larger more lipophilic solutes showed slower diffusivity values. The study showed that the dermis may be a much more lipophilic environment than originally believed and that distribution of smaller nonionized solutes into local tissues below a site of topical application may be estimated based on knowledge of their lipophilicity alone.

Gene flow in great bustard populations across the Strait of Gibraltar as elucidated from excremental PCR and mtDNA sequencing

Recent advances in molecular biology have made it possible to use the trace amounts of DNA in faeces to non-invasively sample endangered species for genetic studies. Here we use faeces as a source of DNA and mtDNA sequence data to elucidate the relationship among Spanish and Moroccan populations of great bustards. 834 bp of combined control region and cytochrome-b mtDNA fragments revealed four variable sites that defined seven closely related haplotypes in 54 individuals. Morocco was fixed for a single mtDNA haplotype that occurs at moderate frequency (28%) in Spain. We could not differentiate among the sampled Spanish populations of Caceres and Andalucia but these combined populations were differentiated from the Moroccan population. Estimates of gene flow (Nm = 0.82) are consistent with extensive observations on the southern Iberian peninsular indicating that few individuals fly across the Strait of Gibraltar. We demonstrate that both this sea barrier and mountain barriers in Spain limit dispersal among adjacent great bustard populations to a similar extent. The Moroccan population is of high ornithological significance as it holds the only population of great bustards in Africa. This population is critically small and genetic and observational data indicate that it is unlikely to be recolonised via immigration from Spain should it be extirpated. In light of the evidence presented here it deserves the maximum level of protection.

Measuring the accumulated hazards of smoking: global and regional estimates for 2000

Objective: Current prevalence of smoking, even where data are available, is a poor proxy for cumulative hazards of smoking, which depend on several factors including the age at which smoking began, duration of smoking, number of cigarettes smoked per day, degree of inhalation, and cigarette characteristics such as tar and nicotine content or filter type. Methods: We extended the Peto-Lopez smoking impact ratio method to estimate accumulated hazards of smoking for different regions of the world. Lung cancer mortality data were obtained from the Global Burden of Disease mortality database. The American Cancer Society Cancer Prevention Study, phase 11 (CPS-II) with follow up for the years 1982 to 1988 was the reference population. For the global application of the method, never-smoker lung cancer mortality rates were chosen based on the estimated use of coal for household energy in each region. Results: Men in industrialised countries of Europe, North America, and the Western Pacific had the largest accumulated hazards of smoking. Young and middle age males in many regions of the developing world also had large smoking risks. The accumulated hazards of smoking for women were highest in North America followed by Europe. Conclusions: In the absence of detailed data on smoking prevalence and history, lung cancer mortality provides a robust indicator of the accumulated hazards of smoking. These hazards in developing countries are currently more concentrated among young and middle aged males.

Estimates of global mortality attributable to smoking in 2000

Background Smoking is a risk factor for several diseases and has been increasing in many developing countries. Our aim was to estimate global and regional mortality in 2000 caused by smoking, including an analysis of uncertainty. Methods Following the methods of Peto and colleagues, we used lung-cancer mortality as an indirect marker for accumulated smoking risk. Never-smoker lung-cancer mortality was estimated based on the household use of coal with poor ventilation. Relative risks were taken from the American Cancer Society Cancer Prevention Study, phase II, and the retrospective proportional mortality analysis of Liu and colleagues in China. Relative risks were corrected for confounding and extrapolation to other regions. Results We estimated that in 2000, 4.83 (uncertainty range 3.94-5.93) million premature deaths in the world were attributable to smoking; 2.41 (1.80-3.15) million in developing countries and 2.43 (2.13-2.78) million in industrialised countries. 3.84 million of these deaths were in men. The leading causes of death from smoking were cardiovascular diseases (1.69 million deaths), chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (0.97 million deaths), and lung cancer (0.85 million deaths). Interpretation Smoking was an important cause of global mortality in 2000. In view of the expected demographic and epidemiological transitions and current smoking patterns in the developing world, the health loss due to smoking will grow even larger unless effective interventions and policies that reduce smoking among men and prevent increases among women in developing countries are implemented.

Relationships and estimates of longitudinal growth stress in Eucalyptus dunnii at different ages

O objetivo desse trabalho foi obter estimativas da tensão de crescimento longitudinal em árvores vivas e verificar a sua relação com algumas características da madeira de Eucalyptus dunnii Maiden aos oito, treze, quinze e dezenove anos de idade. O material foi proveniente da Empresa Procopiak Compensados e Embalagens S.A., localizada no Município de Canoinhas, Santa Catarina. Os níveis de tensão longitudinal de crescimento foram mensurados indiretamente pelo método do "CIRAD-Forêt", na árvore viva, e estimados a partir do módulo de elasticidade dinâmico e do módulo de elasticidade obtido no ensaio de tração paralela à grã. A deformação residual longitudinal (DRL) e as estimativas das tensões de crescimento longitudinais apresentaram tendência de aumento, na média, com a idade do material. A DRL apresentou correlação, positiva e significativa, com todas as estimativas das tensões de crescimento longitudinais, sendo de maior magnitude aos 13, 15 e 19 anos de idade. A densidade básica apresentou maiores correlações, positivas e significativas, com o módulo de elasticidade dinâmico, estimado no sentido longitudinal, para a madeira na condição de saturação e a 12% de umidade, em todas as idades avaliadas. Todas as estimativas das tensões de crescimento longitudinais apresentam elevadas correlações, positivas e significativas, entre si.

Variabilidade genética em famílias de meios-irmãos de cafeeiro robusta

O cultivo do café é uma das atividades do agronegócio de maior importância socioeconômica dentre as diferentes atividades ligadas ao comércio agrícola mundial. Uma das maiores contribuições da genética quantitativa para o melhoramento genético é a possibilidade de prever ganhos genéticos. Quando diferentes critérios de seleção são considerados, a predição de ganhos referentes a cada critério tem grande importância, pois indica os melhoristas sobre como utilizar o material genético disponível, visando obter o máximo de ganhos possível para as características de interesse. O presente trabalho foi instalado em julho de 2004, na Fazenda Experimental de Bananal do Norte, conduzida pelo Incaper, no distrito de Pacotuba, município de Cachoeiro de Itapemirim, região Sul do Estado, com o objetivo de selecionar as melhores plantas entre e dentro de progênies de meios- irmãos de Coffea canephora, por meio de diferentes critérios de seleção. Foram realizadas análises de variância individuais e conjuntas para 26 progênies de meios- irmãos Coffea canephora. O delineamento experimental utilizado foi em blocos ao acaso com quatro testemunhas adicionais com quatro repetições e parcela composta por cinco plantas, com o espaçamento de 3,0 m x 1,2 m. Neste trabalho, considerou-se os dados das últimas cinco colheitas. As características mensuradas foram: florescimento, maturação, tamanho do grão, peso, porte, vigor, ferrugem, mancha cercóspora, seca de ponteiros, escala geral, porcentagem de frutos boia e bicho mineiro. Todas as análises estatísticas foram realizadas com o aplicativo computacional em genética e estatística (GENES). Foram estimados os ganhos de seleção em função da porcentagem de seleção de 20% entre e dentro, sendo as mesmas mantidas para todas as características. Todas as características foram submetidas a seleção no sentido positivo, exceto para florescimento, porte, ferrugem, mancha cercóspora, seca de ponteiros, porcentagem de frutos boia e bicho mineiro, para obter decréscimo em suas médias originais. Os critérios de seleção estudados foram: seleção convencional entre e dentro das famílias, índice de seleção combinada, seleção massal e seleção massal estratificada. Esta dissertação é composta por dois capítulos, em que foram realizadas análises biométricas, como a obtenção de estimativas de parâmetros genéticos. Na maioria das características estudadas, verificaram-se diferenças significativas (P<0,05) para genótipos que, associados aos coeficientes de variação genotípicos e também ao coeficiente de determinação genotípico e à relação CVg/CVe, indicam a existência de variabilidade genética nos materiais genéticos para a maioria das características e condições favoráveis para obtenção de ganhos genéticos pela seleção. Essas características também foram correlacionadas. Os dados foram submetidos às análises de variância e multivariada, aplicando-se a técnica de agrupamento e UPGMA, teste de médias e estudo de correlações. Na técnica de agrupamento, foi utilizada a distância generalizada de Mahalanobis como medida de dissimilaridade, e na delimitação dos grupos, o método de Tocher. Foi encontrada diversidade genética para as características associadas à qualidade fisiológica, mobilização de reserva das sementes, dimensões e biomassa das plântulas. Quatro grupos de genótipos puderam ser formados. Peso de massa seca de sementes, redução de reserva de sementes e peso de massa seca de plântulas estão positivamente correlacionados entre si, enquanto a redução de reserva das sementes e a eficiência na conversão dessas reservas em plântulas estão negativamente correlacionadas. De acordo com os resultados obtidos, verificou-se que todas as características apresentaram níveis diferenciados de variabilidade genética e os critérios de seleção utilizados mostraram-se eficientes para o melhoramento, no qual o índice de seleção combinada é o critério de seleção que apresentou os melhores resultados em termos de ganhos, sendo indicado como critério mais apropriado para o melhoramento genético da população estudada. Nos estudos de correlações, em 70% dos casos, a correlação fenotípica foi superior à genotípica, mostrando maior influência dos fatores ambientais em relação aos genotípicos e condições propícias ao melhoramento dos diferentes caracteres. No estudo de divergência genética, observou-se que pelo agrupamento de genótipos, pela técnica de Tocher, indicou que os genótipos foram distribuídos em três grupos.

Manejo do pastejo de cultivares de Brachiaria brizantha (Hochst) Stapf e de Panicum maximum Jacq

A definição dos princípios adequados de manejo do pastejo capazes de possibilitar que as pastagens mantenham-se produtivas e persistentes tem sido uma preocupação constante dos pesquisadores brasileiros. No entanto, foi durante as duas últimas décadas que ocorreram grandes mudanças e um avanço significativo na compreensão dos processos determinantes da correta utilização das plantas forrageiras tropicais em pastagens. Este texto tem por objetivo apresentar e discutir os principais resultados obtidos sobre o manejo do pastejo de alguns cultivares de Panicum maximum e de Brachiaria brizantha, bem como a importância da utilização de metas de pasto como guia de campo para o monitoramento e controle do processo de pastejo para planejar e recomendar práticas de manejo eficientes.

Selection of full-sib families of Panicum maximum Jacq under low light conditions

The silvopastoral system is a viable technological alternative to extensive cattle grazing, however, for it to be successful, forage grass genotypes adapted to reduced light need to be identified. The objective of this study was to select progenies of Panicum maximum tolerant to low light conditions for use in breeding programs and to study the genetic control and performance of some traits associated with shade tolerance. Six full-sib progenies were evaluated in full sun, 50% and 70% of light reduction in pots and subjected to cuttings. Progeny genotypic values ​​(GV) increased with light reduction in relation to plant height (H) and specific leaf area (SLA). The traits total dry mass accumulation (DM) and leaf dry mass accumulation (LDM) had GV higher in 50% shade and intermediate in 70% shade. The GV of tiller number (TIL) and root dry mass accumulation (RDM) decreased with light reduction. The highest positive correlations were obtained for the traits H and RDM with SLA and DM; the highest negative correlations were between TIL and SLA and RDM, and H and LDM. The progenies showed higher tolerance to 50% light reduction and, among them, two stood out and will be used in breeding programs. It was also found that it is not necessary to evaluate some traits under all light conditions. All traits had high broad sense heritability and high genotypic correlation between progenies in all light intensities. There is genetic difference among the progenies regarding the response to different light intensities, which will allow selection for shade tolerance

A DC-DC Step-Up mu-Power Converter for Energy Harvesting Applications, Using Maximum Power PointTracking, Based on Fractional Open Circuit Voltage

A DC-DC step-up micro power converter for solar energy harvesting applications is presented. The circuit is based on a switched-capacitorvoltage tripler architecture with MOSFET capacitors, which results in an, area approximately eight times smaller than using MiM capacitors for the 0.131mu m CMOS technology. In order to compensate for the loss of efficiency, due to the larger parasitic capacitances, a charge reutilization scheme is employed. The circuit is self-clocked, using a phase controller designed specifically to work with an amorphous silicon solar cell, in order to obtain themaximum available power from the cell. This will be done by tracking its maximum power point (MPPT) using the fractional open circuit voltage method. Electrical simulations of the circuit, together with an equivalent electrical model of an amorphous silicon solar cell, show that the circuit can deliver apower of 1132 mu W to the load, corresponding to a maximum efficiency of 66.81%.

A Step-up mu-Power Converter for Solar Energy Harvesting Applications, using Hill Climbing Maximum Power Point Tracking

This paper presents a step-up micro-power converter for solar energy harvesting applications. The circuit uses a SC voltage tripler architecture, controlled by an MPPT circuit based on the Hill Climbing algorithm. This circuit was designed in a 0.13 mu m CMOS technology in order to work with an a-Si PV cell. The circuit has a local power supply voltage, created using a scaled down SC voltage tripler, controlled by the same MPPT circuit, to make the circuit robust to load and illumination variations. The SC circuits use a combination of PMOS and NMOS transistors to reduce the occupied area. A charge re-use scheme is used to compensate the large parasitic capacitors associated to the MOS transistors. The simulation results show that the circuit can deliver a power of 1266 mu W to the load using 1712 mu W of power from the PV cell, corresponding to an efficiency as high as 73.91%. The simulations also show that the circuit is capable of starting up with only 19% of the maximum illumination level.

Maximum penetration of microgeneration photovoltaic panels in distribution network

In smart grids context, the distributed generation units based in renewable resources, play an important rule. The photovoltaic solar units are a technology in evolution and their prices decrease significantly in recent years due to the high penetration of this technology in the low voltage and medium voltage networks supported by governmental policies and incentives. This paper proposes a methodology to determine the maximum penetration of photovoltaic units in a distribution network. The paper presents a case study, with four different scenarios, that considers a 32-bus medium voltage distribution network and the inclusion storage units.