Global Climate Change Impacts in the United States: a state of knowledge report from the U.S. Global Change Research Program

Executive Summary: Observations show that warming of the climate is unequivocal. The global warming observed over the past 50 years is due primarily to human-induced emissions of heat-trapping gases. These emissions come mainly from the burning of fossil fuels (coal, oil, and gas), with important contributions from the clearing of forests, agricultural practices, and other activities. Warming over this century is projected to be considerably greater than over the last century. The global average temperature since 1900 has risen by about 1.5ºF. By 2100, it is projected to rise another 2 to 11.5ºF. The U.S. average temperature has risen by a comparable amount and is very likely to rise more than the global average over this century, with some variation from place to place. Several factors will determine future temperature increases. Increases at the lower end of this range are more likely if global heat-trapping gas emissions are cut substantially. If emissions continue to rise at or near current rates, temperature increases are more likely to be near the upper end of the range. Volcanic eruptions or other natural variations could temporarily counteract some of the human-induced warming, slowing the rise in global temperature, but these effects would only last a few years. Reducing emissions of carbon dioxide would lessen warming over this century and beyond. Sizable early cuts in emissions would significantly reduce the pace and the overall amount of climate change. Earlier cuts in emissions would have a greater effect in reducing climate change than comparable reductions made later. In addition, reducing emissions of some shorter-lived heat-trapping gases, such as methane, and some types of particles, such as soot, would begin to reduce warming within weeks to decades. Climate-related changes have already been observed globally and in the United States. These include increases in air and water temperatures, reduced frost days, increased frequency and intensity of heavy downpours, a rise in sea level, and reduced snow cover, glaciers, permafrost, and sea ice. A longer ice-free period on lakes and rivers, lengthening of the growing season, and increased water vapor in the atmosphere have also been observed. Over the past 30 years, temperatures have risen faster in winter than in any other season, with average winter temperatures in the Midwest and northern Great Plains increasing more than 7ºF. Some of the changes have been faster than previous assessments had suggested. These climate-related changes are expected to continue while new ones develop. Likely future changes for the United States and surrounding coastal waters include more intense hurricanes with related increases in wind, rain, and storm surges (but not necessarily an increase in the number of these storms that make landfall), as well as drier conditions in the Southwest and Caribbean. These changes will affect human health, water supply, agriculture, coastal areas, and many other aspects of society and the natural environment. This report synthesizes information from a wide variety of scientific assessments (see page 7) and recently published research to summarize what is known about the observed and projected consequences of climate change on the United States. It combines analysis of impacts on various sectors such as energy, water, and transportation at the national level with an assessment of key impacts on specific regions of the United States. For example, sea-level rise will increase risks of erosion, storm surge damage, and flooding for coastal communities, especially in the Southeast and parts of Alaska. Reduced snowpack and earlier snow melt will alter the timing and amount of water supplies, posing significant challenges for water resource management in the West. (PDF contains 196 pages)

“El Niño” study based on analysis of ocean surface temperatures 1935-57

ENGLISH: The following report describes the findings of an "El Niño" project carried out at the Department of Meteorology of the University of California, Los Angeles, at the request of, and with funds provided from, the Inter-American Tropical Tuna Commission. The project was, in its early stages, supervised by Professor M. Neiburger, but was in June 1959 transferred to Professor J. Bjerknes, who thereby became the sole author of this final report. Readers who may be interested in the general background of knowledge of the maritime meteorology of the Eastern Pacific are herewith referred to Professor Neiburger's final report of the "Subtropical Pacific Meteorology Project." That report, submitted in September 1958 to the Office of Naval Research, summarizes the results of all the meteorological soundings released at sea since 1949 from California in the north to Peru in the south. The soundings off Ecuador and Peru were all taken by the "Shellback" expedition during July 1952. Important as this first exploration of the atmosphere over the Eastern Equatorial Pacific was, it did not even begin to explore " El Niño " itself, which is confined to the southern summer season and, moreover, only reaches catastrophic proportions in a few exceptional years. SPANISH: Este estudio da a conocer los resultados de una investigación que, bajo el nombre de Proyecto "El Niño", ha sido efectuada en el Departamento de Meteorología de la Universidad de California, Los Angeles, a solicitud de la Comisión Interamericana del Atún Tropical y con fondos provistos por ésta. En sus primeras etapas, el proyecto fué supervisado por el Profesor M. Neiburger, pero en junio de 1959 fué transferido al Profesor J. Bjerknes, quien de este modo vino a ser el solo autor de este informe final. A los lectores interesados en los conocimientos de fondo de la meteorología marítima del Pacífico Oriental se les recomienda consultar el informe final del Profesor Neiburger intitulado "Subtropical Pacific Meteorology Project". Este informe, sometido a la "Office of Naval Research" en septiembre de 1958 sumariza los resultados de todos los sondeos meteorológicos efectuados en el mar desde 1949 en el área entre California en el norte y Perú en el sur. Todos los sondeos frente al Ecuador y el Perú fueron hechos por la Expedición "Shellback" durante el mes de julio de 1952. Importante como fué esta primera exploración de la atmósfera sobre el Pacífico Ecuatorial del Este, ni siquiera comenzó a explorar "El Niño" en sí, que se confina a la estación de verano en el sur y, más aún, sólo alcanza proporciones catastróficas en unos pocos años excepcionales.

Water Temperatures and Climatological Conditions South of New England, 1974-83

From 1974 through 1983, we conducted monitoring to provide the first long-term, year-round record of sea water temperatures south of New England from surface to bottom, and from nearshore to the continental slope. Expendable bathythermograph transects were made approximately monthly during the ten years by scientists and technicians from numerous institutions, working on research vessels that traversed the continental shelf off southern New England. Ten-year (1974-83) means and variability are presented for coastal and bottom water temperatures, for mid-shelf water column temperatures, and for some atmospheric and oceanographic conditions that may influence shelf and upper-slope water temperatures. Possible applications of ocean temperature monitoring to fishery ecology are noted. Some large departures from mean conditions are discussed; particularly notable during the decade were the response of water temperatures to the passage of Gulf Stream warm-core rings, and the magnitude and persistence of shelf-water cooling associated with air temperatures in three successive very cold winters (1976-77, 1977-78, and 1978-79). (PDF file contains 51 pages.)

Distribution and Abundance of Juvenile Salmonids off Oregon and Washington, 1981-1985

This report is a summary of the results of 883 purse seine sets made for juvenile salmonids during 15 cruises off the coasts of Oregon and Washington during the springs and summers of 1981-1985. Juvenile coho salmon (Oncorhynchus kisutch) occurred most frequently, followed by chinook salmon (0. tshawytscha). The juveniles of these two species co-occurred more frequently than expected. Juvenile chum, pink and sockeye salmon (0. keta, O. gorbuscha, and O. nerka), steelhead (0. mykiss) and cutthroat trout (0. clarki clarki) were caught much less frequently and in lower numbers than coho or chinook salmon. We found no evidence of large schools ofjuvenile salmonids. A northerly movement of juvenile coho salmon wa~ suggested by decreased catches off Oregon and increased catches off Washington between early and late summer. Highest catch per set of juvenile coho salmon was usually found inshore of 37.2 km. Juvenile chinook salmon were usually found within 27.9 km of the coast. Juvenile salmonids were found over a broad range of surface salinities and temperatures. High catches of juvenile coho salmon occurred in both the low salinity waters of the Columbia River plume and in adjacent higher salinity waters. Preferences for specific salinities or temperatures were not obvious for any species, although catch rates of juvenile coho salmon were highest in years when chlorophyll content was also high. Based on expansions of fish with coded wire tags, we estimated that hatchery coho salmon smolts comprised 74%, on average, of the juvenile coho salmon catches. The remaining 26% were presumably wild fish or hatchery fish released as fingerlings. Hatchery coho salmon were caught roughly in proportion to the numbers released. However, hatchery fish from the Columbia River and private coastal facilities were caught at slightly higher rates while those from coastal Washington and public coastal Oregon hatcheries were caught at slightly lower rates than expected from the numbers released. No juvenile coho salmon with coded wire tags were caught that had originated from either California or Puget Sound hatcheries. (PDF file contains 88 pages.)

Effects of temperature on the biology of the northern shrimp, Pandalus borealis, in the Gulf of Maine

Length-frequency data collected from inshore and offshore locations in the Gulf of Maine in 1966-1968 indicated that ovigerous female northern shrimp (Pandalus borealis) first appeared offshore in August and September and migrated inshore in the fall and winter. Once eggs hatched, surviving females returned offshore. Juveniles and males migrated offshore during their first two years of life. Sex transition occurred in both inshore and oll'shore waters, but most males changed sex offshore during their third and fourth years. Most shrimp changed sex and matured as females for the first time in their fourth year. Smaller females and females exposed to colder bottom temperatures spawned first. The incidence of egg parasitism peaked in January and was higher for shrimp exposed to warmer bottom temperatures. Accelerated growth at higher temperatures appeared to result in earlier or more rapid sex transition. Males and non-ovigerous females were observed to make diurnal vertical migrations, but were not found in near- surface waters where the temperature exceeded 6°C. Ovigerous females fed more heavily on benthic molluscs in inshore waters in the winter, presumably because the egg masses they were carrying prevented them from migrating vertically at night. Northern shrimp were more abundant in the southwestern region of the Gulf of Maine where bottom temperatures remain low throughout the year. Bottom trawl catch rates were highest in Jeffreys Basin where bottom temperatures were lower than at any other sampling location. Catch rates throughout the study area were inversely related to bottom temperature and reached a maximum at 3°C. An increase of 40% in fecundity between 1973 and 1979 was associated with a decline of 2-3°C in April-July offshore bottom temperatures. Furthermore, a decrease in mean fecundity per 25 mm female between 1965 and 1970 was linearly related to reduced landings between 1969 and 1974. It is hypothesized that temperature-induced changes in fecundity and, possibly, in the extent of egg mortality due to parasitism, may provide a mechanism which could partially account for changes in the size of the Gulf of Maine northern shrimp population during the last thirty years. (PDF file contains 28 pages.)

Quality changes in canned tilapia stored at ambient and accelerated temperatures

Changes in the quality of canned tilapia packed in oil and tomato sauce at ambient and accelerated temperatures were examined by microbiological and sensory evaluation. Canned tilapia were found to be microbiologically stable and organoleptically acceptable after six months storage period. Total viable count (TVC) were generally low (2.5 x 10 super(2)). Thermophilic organisms (Clostridium) were absent in all samples. The yield of edible part of tilapia was 72% after dressing. Pre-cooking of tilapia resulted in a loss of 21.5% of its dressed weight. Comparison of canned tilapia with available canned fishes (geisha and bonga) showed similar trends in the taste, proximate composition, microbiological stability and sensory scores.The possibility for investment in tilapia cannary was also investigated. It was found that production of canned tilapia will be economically viable if a ten hectare tilapia farm is used as a source of raw materials.

Displacive To Order-Disorder Two-Step Phase Transition Model For Para-Ferroelectric Transition

Two-step phase transition model, displacive to order-disorder, is proposed. The driving forces for these two transitions are fundamentally different. The displacive phase transition is one type of the structural phase transitions. We clearly define the structural phase transition as the symmetry broking of the unit cell and the electric dipole starts to form in the unit cell. Then the dipole-dipole interaction takes place as soon as the dipoles in unit cells are formed. We believe that the dipole-dipole interaction may cause an order-disorder phase transition following the displacive phase transition. Both structural and order-disorder phase transition can be first-order or second-order or in between. We found that the structural transition temperatures can be lower or equal or higher than the order-disorder transition temperature. The para-ferroelectric phase transition is the combination of the displacive and order-disorder phase transitions. It generates a variety of transition configurations along with confusions. In this paper, we discuss all these configurations using our displacive to order-disorder two-step phase transition model and clarified all the confusions.

Hoffnung für einige Nordseefischbestände

In the first quarter of 1997 R.V. “Walther Herwig III” took part in the internationally (ICES) coordinated International Bottom Trawl Survey (IBTS) in the North Sea. A total of 365 half-hour tows using a standardized GOV-net were made by seven research vessels in order to determine the strength of incoming yearclasses of cod, haddock, whiting, Norway pout, herring, sprat, and mackerel. Overall results, though preliminary show a considerable increase of the index figures for cod, Norway pout, herring, and mackerel whereas the indices for haddock, sprat, and whiting indicate lower recruitment figures. Water temperatures and salinity values were unhomogeneously below and above of the longterm mean.

Development of arc root attachment in the nozzle of 1 kW N2 and H2-N2 arcjet thrusters

Arc root behavior affects the energy transfer and nozzle erosion in an arcjet thruster. To investigate the development of arc root attachment in 1 kW class N2 and H2-N2 arcjet thrusters from the time of ignition to the stably working condition, a kinetic series of end-on view images of the nozzle obtained by a high-speed video camera was analyzed. The addition of hydrogen leads to higher arc voltage levels and the determining factor for the mode of arc root attachment was found to be the nozzle temperature. At lower nozzle temperatures, constricted type attachment with unstable motions of the arc root was observed, while a fully diffused and stable arc root was observed at elevated nozzle temperatures.

Coastal management measures for the lower Maumee Watershed, Lake Erie

In January 2006 the Maumee Remedial Action Plan (RAP) Committee submitted a State II Watershed Restoration Plan for the Maumee River Great Lakes Area of Concern (AOC) area located in NW Ohio to the State of Ohio for review and endorsement (MRAC, 2006). The plan was created in order to fulfill the requirements, needs and/or use of five water quality programs including: Ohio Department of Natural Resources (DNR) Watershed Coordinator Program; Ohio EPA Great Lakes RAP Program; Ohio DNR Coastal Non-point Source Pollution Control Program; Ohio EPA Total Maximum Daily Load Program; and US Fish & Wildlife Service Natural Resources Damage Program. The plan is intended to serve as a comprehensive regional management approach for all jurisdictions, agencies, organizations, and individuals who are working to restore the watershed, waterways and associated coastal zone. The plan includes: background information and mapping regarding hydrology, geology, ecoregions, and land use, and identifies key causes and sources for water quality concerns within the six 11-digit hydrological units (HUCs), and one large river unit that comprise the Maumee AOC. Tables were also prepared that contains detailed project lists for each major watershed and was organized to facilitate the prioritization of research and planning efforts. Also key to the plan and project tables is a reference to the Ohio DNR Coastal Management Measures that may benefit from the implementation of an identified project. This paper will examine the development of the measures and their importance for coastal management and watershed planning in the Maumee AOC. (PDF contains 4 pages)

Black holes in the early universe, in compact binaries, and as energy sources inside solar-type stars

This thesis consists of three separate studies of roles that black holes might play in our universe.

In the first part we formulate a statistical method for inferring the cosmological parameters of our universe from LIGO/VIRGO measurements of the gravitational waves produced by coalescing black-hole/neutron-star binaries. This method is based on the cosmological distance-redshift relation, with "luminosity distances" determined directly, and redshifts indirectly, from the gravitational waveforms. Using the current estimates of binary coalescence rates and projected "advanced" LIGO noise spectra, we conclude that by our method the Hubble constant should be measurable to within an error of a few percent. The errors for the mean density of the universe and the cosmological constant will depend strongly on the size of the universe, varying from about 10% for a "small" universe up to and beyond 100% for a "large" universe. We further study the effects of random gravitational lensing and find that it may strongly impair the determination of the cosmological constant.

In the second part of this thesis we disprove a conjecture that black holes cannot form in an early, inflationary era of our universe, because of a quantum-field-theory induced instability of the black-hole horizon. This instability was supposed to arise from the difference in temperatures of any black-hole horizon and the inflationary cosmological horizon; it was thought that this temperature difference would make every quantum state that is regular at the cosmological horizon be singular at the black-hole horizon. We disprove this conjecture by explicitly constructing a quantum vacuum state that is everywhere regular for a massless scalar field. We further show that this quantum state has all the nice thermal properties that one has come to expect of "good" vacuum states, both at the black-hole horizon and at the cosmological horizon.

In the third part of the thesis we study the evolution and implications of a hypothetical primordial black hole that might have found its way into the center of the Sun or any other solar-type star. As a foundation for our analysis, we generalize the mixing-length theory of convection to an optically thick, spherically symmetric accretion flow (and find in passing that the radial stretching of the inflowing fluid elements leads to a modification of the standard Schwarzschild criterion for convection). When the accretion is that of solar matter onto the primordial hole, the rotation of the Sun causes centrifugal hangup of the inflow near the hole, resulting in an "accretion torus" which produces an enhanced outflow of heat. We find, however, that the turbulent viscosity, which accompanies the convective transport of this heat, extracts angular momentum from the inflowing gas, thereby buffering the torus into a lower luminosity than one might have expected. As a result, the solar surface will not be influenced noticeably by the torus's luminosity until at most three days before the Sun is finally devoured by the black hole. As a simple consequence, accretion onto a black hole inside the Sun cannot be an answer to the solar neutrino puzzle.

The role of women in artisanal fisheries along the Lower Benue River

A questionnaire survey was carried out to assess the role of women in the artisanal fisheries of fish markets sector along the Lower Benue River. Four (4) fishing settlement communities of fish markets along the Lower Benue were selected. They are namely North Bank, Wadata, Abinse and Gbajimba . Structure and unstructured questionnaire were administered to cover areas of personal data, fish production activities, processing and marketing among others. The study revealed that women along the Lower Benue River participate activity in the artisanal fisheries sub-sector. However, the major role played by the women was in the area of processing and preservation, marketing and distribution. These accounted 52 and 42% respectively. The distribution of the women was not tribally based however, Jukun women accounted for 66.20% followed by Agatu women 13.00%. The age bracket of the women mostly involved in fisheries activities was between 31-40 years. About 86% of them was married. The initial capital base was low and mostly by personal saving accounting for 52%. Need for government assistance was the highlight in this study. About 86% sought for Federal Government intervention from the National Poverty Eradication Programme. This they felt will be a welcome development to boost women participation in the Artisanal fisheries sub-sector along the Lower Benue River

The Health Impacts of Climate Change: A Study of Cholera in Tanzania

27 p.

The DICER Model: Methodological Issues and Initial Results

31 p.