974 resultados para Lorenz curve
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Abstract: INTRODUCTION: The treatment of individuals with active tuberculosis (TB) and the identification and treatment of latent tuberculosis infection (LTBI) contacts are the two most important strategies for the control of TB. The objective of this study was compare the performance of tuberculin skin testing (TST) with QuantiFERON-TB Gold In TUBE(r) in the diagnosis of LTBI in contacts of patients with active TB. METHODS: Cross-sectional analytical study with 60 contacts of patients with active pulmonary TB. A blood sample of each contact was taken for interferon-gamma release assay (IGRA) and subsequently performed the TST. A receiver operating characteristic curve was generated to assess the cutoff points and the sensitivity, predictive values, and accuracy were calculated. The agreement between IGRA and TST results was evaluated by Kappa coefficient. RESULTS: Here, 67.9% sensitivity, 84.4% specificity, 79.1% PPV, 75% NPV, and 76.7% accuracy were observed for the 5mm cutoff point. The prevalence of LTBI determined by TST and IGRA was 40% and 46.7%, respectively. CONCLUSIONS: Both QuantiFERON-TB Gold In TUBE(r) and TST showed good performance in LTBI diagnosis. The creation of specific diagnostic methods is necessary for the diagnosis of LTBI with higher sensitivity and specificity, preferably with low cost and not require a return visit for reading because with early treatment of latent forms can prevent active TB.
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Since 1958, we have studied experimental Chagas' disease (CD) by subcutaneous inoculation of 1,000 blood forms of Trypanosoma cruzi (Y strain) in Balb/C. mice. Evolution of parasitemia remained constant, beginning on the 5th and 6th day of the disease, increasing progressively, achieving a maximum on about the 30th day. After another month, only a few forms were present, and they disappeared from the circulation after the third month, as determined from direct examination of slides and the use of a Neubauer Counting Chamber. These events coincided with the appearance of amastigote nests in the tissues (especially the cardiac ones), starting the first week, and following the Gauss parasitemia curve, but they were not in parallel until the chronic stage. In 1997, we began to note the following changes: Parasites appeared in the circulation during the first week and disappeared starting on the 7th day, and there was a coincident absence of the amastigote nests in the tissues. A careful study verified that young forms in the evolutionary cycle of T. cruzi (epi + amastigotes) began to appear alongside the trypomastigotes in the circulation on the 5th and 7th post-inoculation day. At the same time, rounded, oval, and spindle shapes were seen circulating through the capillaries and sinusoids of the tissues, principally of the hematopoietic organs. Stasis occurs because the diameter of the circulating parasites is greater than the vessels, and this makes them more visible. Examination of the sternal bone marrow revealed young cells with elongated forms and others truncated in the shape of a "C" occupying the internal surface of the blood cells that had empty central portions (erythrocytes?). We hypothesize that there could be a loss of virulence or mutation of the Y strain of Trypanosoma cruzi.
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This work reviews the recent research on ion and UV irradiation of β-
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Based on the report for the unit “Foresight Analysis Methods” of the PhD program on Technology Assessment in 2013. This unit was supervised by Prof. António Moniz. The paper had meanwhile contributions from the supervisor and Dr. Douglas Robinson.
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Diffusion of Innovation is a topic of interest for researchers and practitioners. Although substantial research is conducted on user categories, researchers often focus on the first half of the curve, ignoring the late adopters. We conduct two studies to measure the attributes of late adopters. In our first study of mobile phone users, we develop the Late-Adopter Scale. We then test it on a sample of laptop users. This scale is multi-dimensional, presents nomological and discriminant validity and has three dimensions: 1) rate of adoption, 2) resistance to innovation, and 3) skepticism. Findings reveal that all three Late Adopter Scale dimensions are significantly associated with low price preference. Moreover, in both samples skepticism is associated with high preference for simple products, lower leading edge status, and lower product involvement. Discussion focuses on implications of this new scale to theory and practice of new product development and diffusion of innovation.
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OBJECTIVE: To evaluate the effects of 2 different doses of exogenous surfactant on pulmonary mechanics and on the regularity of pulmonary parenchyma inflation in newborn rabbits. METHOD: Newborn rabbits were submitted to tracheostomy and randomized into 4 study groups: the Control group did not receive any material inside the trachea; the MEC group was instilled with meconium, without surfactant treatment; the S100 and S200 groups were instilled with meconium and were treated with 100 and 200 mg/kg of exogenous surfactant (produced by Instituto Butantan) respectively. Animals from the 4 groups were mechanically ventilated during a 25-minute period. Dynamic compliance, ventilatory pressure, tidal volume, and maximum lung volume (P-V curve) were evaluated. Histological analysis was conducted using the mean linear intercept (Lm), and the lung tissue distortion index (SDI) was derived from the standard deviation of the means of the Lm. One-way analysis of variance was used with a = 0.05. RESULTS: After 25 minutes of ventilation, dynamic compliance (mL/cm H2O · kg) was 0.87 ± 0.07 (Control); 0.49 ± 0.04 (MEC*); 0.67 ± 0.06 (S100); and 0.67 ± 0.08 (S200), and ventilatory pressure (cm H2O) was 9.0 ± 0.9 (Control); 16.5 ± 1.7 (MEC*); 12.4 ± 1.1 (S100); and 12.1 ± 1.5 (S200). Both treated groups had lower Lm values and more homogeneity in the lung parenchyma compared to the MEC group: SDI = 7.5 ± 1.9 (Control); 11.3 ± 2.5 (MEC*), 5.8 ± 1.9 (S100); and 6.7 ± 1.7 (S200) (*P < 0.05 versus all the other groups). CONCLUSIONS: Animals treated with surfactant showed significant improvement in pulmonary mechanics and more regularity of the lung parenchyma in comparison to untreated animals. There was no difference in results after treatment with either of the doses used.
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A estrutura temporal das taxas de juro, também conhecida por yield curve ou curva de rendimentos define a relação entre as taxas de juros e o prazo de vencimento (ou maturidades) dos investimentos feitos. Assim, o desenvolvimento de modelos que possibilitem a obtenção de previsões precisas sobre a estrutura temporal das taxas de juro e que permitam estudar a dinâmica da evolução das taxas de juro é de crucial importância em diversas áreas de financiamento. Neste estudo investigou-se a performance de diferentes métodos de previsão para obter a estrutura temporal das taxas de juro da Zona Euro, considerando o período entre 2009 e 2015. Em termos mais específicos, foi analisada a capacidade preditiva do modelo de Nelson-Siegel & Svensson assumindo que os parâmetros resultantes da estimação da especificação paramétrica podem ser modelizados através de métodos de séries temporais univariados (modelos ARIMA, Random walk) e multivariados (modelos VAR) e Redes Neuronais Artificiais (RNA) individuais e conjuntas. Os resultados deste estudo mostram que (i) as RNA com a previsão dos parâmetros em simultâneo exibem os valores de erro mais baixos para as maturidades de curto e médio prazo (3 meses a 5 anos); (ii) As RNAs individuais são melhores para prever as taxas de juro nas maturidades compreendidas entre os 7 e os 10 anos, e que (iii) para as maturidades de longo e muito longo prazo (15 e 30 anos respetivamente) deverá ser escolhido o modelo VAR(1). Estes resultados são robustos e consistentes para todos os horizontes de previsão analisados (1,2 e 3 meses). Contudo, no período analisado nenhum dos modelos testados apresenta valores de erro inferiores aos obtidos com o modelo Random Walk.
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The effect of freeze–thaw cycles on concrete is of great importance for durability evaluation of concrete structures in cold regions. In this paper, damage accumulation was studied by following the fractional change of impedance (FCI) with number of freeze–thaw cycles (N). The nano-carbon black (NCB), carbon fiber (CF) and steel fiber (SF) were added to plain concrete to produce the triphasic electrical conductive (TEC) and ductile concrete. The effects of NCB, CF and SF on the compressive strength, flexural properties, electrical impedance were investigated. The concrete beams with different dosages of conductive materials were studied for FCI, N and mass loss (ML), the relationship between FCI and N of conductive concrete can be well defined by a first order exponential decay curve. It is noted that this nondestructive and sensitive real-time testing method is meaningful for evaluating of freeze–thaw damage in concrete.
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The residual power of deltametrine FW (25 mg 1 .a/m2) was evaluated and compared to that of DDT (2 g i.a./m2) by means of biological tests. The different kinds of material used in constructing houses in Amazonia, such as: masonry, wood, and wattle and daub, were used. Data from logistic regression showed that the drop in mortality, the inclination of the curve in relation to time, was similar for the two insecticides in the first samples. The negative coeficient for the variable, months after application, confirmed a reduction in the activity of both insecticides. Wooden and wattle walls showed positive and negative coeficiencies respectively from the beginning. The wooden walls retained a residual effect but the wattle walls were shown to be the least indicated for the application of insecticides The experiments demonstrated a more prolonged residual effect for deltametrine as compared to DDT, and that insecticides work better on brick and cement and wooden walls than they do on wattle and daub constructions. For these reasons, it would be necessary to spray brick and cement walls every 8 months, wooden ones every 9 months and wattle constructions every 7 months to control the vectors of malaria.
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With the constant need to improve and make the production of asphalt mixtures more sustainable, new production techniques have been developed, the implementation of which implies the correct knowledge of their performance. One of the most promising asphalt production techniques is the use of foamed bitumen. However, it is essential to understand how this binder will behave when subject to the expansion process. The loss of volume of the foamed bitumen could be translated by a decay curve, which allows to determine the ideal temperature and water content added to the bitumen in order to assure adequate conditions to the mix the bitumen with the aggregates. On the present study, a conventional 160/220 pen grade bitumen was tested by using different temperatures and water contents, and it was concluded that the optimum temperature for the production of foamed bitumen (with the studied bitumen) is 150 ºC, which corresponds to a viscosity of 0.1 Pa.s. The water content mostly influence the half-life of the bitumen foam, resulting in quicker volume reductions for higher water contents.
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Customer lifetime value (LTV) enables using client characteristics, such as recency, frequency and monetary (RFM) value, to describe the value of a client through time in terms of profitability. We present the concept of LTV applied to telemarketing for improving the return-on-investment, using a recent (from 2008 to 2013) and real case study of bank campaigns to sell long- term deposits. The goal was to benefit from past contacts history to extract additional knowledge. A total of twelve LTV input variables were tested, un- der a forward selection method and using a realistic rolling windows scheme, highlighting the validity of five new LTV features. The results achieved by our LTV data-driven approach using neural networks allowed an improvement up to 4 pp in the Lift cumulative curve for targeting the deposit subscribers when compared with a baseline model (with no history data). Explanatory knowledge was also extracted from the proposed model, revealing two highly relevant LTV features, the last result of the previous campaign to sell the same product and the frequency of past client successes. The obtained results are particularly valuable for contact center companies, which can improve pre- dictive performance without even having to ask for more information to the companies they serve.
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In the Brazilian Amazon, large areas of abandoned lands may revert to secondary forest. In the process, pioneer tree species have an important role to restore productivity in old fields and improve environmental conditions. To determine potential photosynthesis (Apot), stomatal conductance (g), transpiration (E), and leaf micronutrient concentrations in Ochroma pyramidale (Cav. ex Lam.) Urban a study was carried out in the Brazilian Amazon (01o 51' S; 60o 04' W). Photosynthetic parameters were measured at increasing [CO2], saturating light intensity (1 mmol (photons) m-2 s-1), and ambient temperature. The rate of electron-transport (J), Apot,and water-use efficiency (WUE) increased consistently at increasing internal CO2 concentration (Ci). Conversely, increasing [CO2] decreased gs, E, and photorespiration (Pr). At the CO2-saturated region of the CO2 response curve (1.1 mmol (CO2) mol-1(air), J was 120 μmol (e-) m-2s-1 and Apot reached up to 24 μmol (CO2) m-2s-1. Likewise, at saturating C1 g and E were 30 and 1.4 mmol (H2O) m-2s-1, respectively, and P 2 r about 1.5 μmol (CO2) m-2s-1. Foliar nutrients were 185, 134, 50, and 10 μmol (element) m-2 (leaf area) for Fe, Mn, Zn, and Cu, respectively. It was concluded that [CO ] probably limits light saturated photosynthesis in this site. Furthermore, from a nutritional point of view, the low Fe to Cu ratio (15:1) may reflect nutritional imbalance in O. pyramidale at this site.
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Tese de Doutoramento em Psicologia - Especialidade em Psicologia Experimental e Ciências Cognitivas
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The receiver-operating characteristic (ROC) curve is the most widely used measure for evaluating the performance of a diagnostic biomarker when predicting a binary disease outcome. The ROC curve displays the true positive rate (or sensitivity) and the false positive rate (or 1-specificity) for different cut-off values used to classify an individual as healthy or diseased. In time-to-event studies, however, the disease status (e.g. death or alive) of an individual is not a fixed characteristic, and it varies along the study. In such cases, when evaluating the performance of the biomarker, several issues should be taken into account: first, the time-dependent nature of the disease status; and second, the presence of incomplete data (e.g. censored data typically present in survival studies). Accordingly, to assess the discrimination power of continuous biomarkers for time-dependent disease outcomes, time-dependent extensions of true positive rate, false positive rate, and ROC curve have been recently proposed. In this work, we present new nonparametric estimators of the cumulative/dynamic time-dependent ROC curve that allow accounting for the possible modifying effect of current or past covariate measures on the discriminatory power of the biomarker. The proposed estimators can accommodate right-censored data, as well as covariate-dependent censoring. The behavior of the estimators proposed in this study will be explored through simulations and illustrated using data from a cohort of patients who suffered from acute coronary syndrome.
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This study focuses on the prospective mediation role of family coping between burden and cortisol levels in informal caregivers of addicts as well as on the feasible use of two different ways to analyse the salivary cortisol levels. Participants were 120 Portuguese informal caregivers of addicts. The cortisol samples were collected at awakening, 45 minutes later and after a 30 minute presentation of images taken from the International Affective Picture System. Family coping and caregiver burden were measured using the Portuguese versions of the Caregiver Reaction Assessment, and the Family Crisis Oriented Personal Evaluation Scale. Cortisol samples were collected in salivettes and the results were computed in order to determine the Area Under the Curve scores (AUCg, AUCi). Results found family coping to be negatively correlated with burden and AUCg levels (i.e. overall intensity) and positively correlated with either AUCg and AUCi (i.e. change over time). The mediation model revealed that family coping was a partial mediator in the relationship between the burden and AUCg levels. Therefore, Family Coping appears to be an essential variable in understanding the stress response and should be considered in further studies and interventions. In addition, the use of two different formulas for calculating cortisol levels provided important new information concerning the relationship between cortisol, burden and family coping. It seems that burden has a more profound effect on the overall intensity of the neuroendocrine response to caregiver stress and not so much on the sensitivity of the system.