921 resultados para Long term prediction
Resumo:
A method for maintaining viable cultures of ectomycorrhizal Hebeloma strains in cold liquid culture medium is described. Isolates of Hebeloma spp., collected over a wide geographic range, were stored at 2 °C for a period of three years. All cultures survived this storage period, a greater time period and success rate than has previously been reported for the long term storage of ectomycorrhizal basidiomycetes. The method may prove useful for long-term storage of other basidiomycete genera.
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Over the past 50 years, many millions of European honey bee (Apis mellifera) colonies have died as the ectoparasitic mite, Varroa destructor, has spread around the world. Subsequent studies have indicated that the mite's association with a group of RNA viral pathogens (Deformed Wing Virus, DWV) correlates with colony death. Here, we propose a phenomenon known as superinfection exclusion that provides an explanation of how certain A. mellifera populations have survived, despite Varroa infestation and high DWV loads. Next-generation sequencing has shown that a non-lethal DWV variant 'type B' has become established in these colonies and that the lethal 'type A' DWV variant fails to persist in the bee population. We propose that this novel stable host-pathogen relationship prevents the accumulation of lethal variants, suggesting that this interaction could be exploited for the development of an effective treatment that minimises colony losses in the future.The ISME Journal advance online publication, 27 October 2015; doi:10.1038/ismej.2015.186.
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Based on numerous studies showing that testing studied material can improve long-term retention more than restudying the same material, it is often suggested that the number of tests in education should be increased to enhance knowledge acquisition. However, testing in real-life educational settings often entails a high degree of extrinsic motivation of learners due to the common practice of placing important consequences on the outcome of a test. Such an effect on the motivation of learners may undermine the beneficial effects of testing on long-term memory because it has been shown that extrinsic motivation can reduce the quality of learning. To examine this issue, participants learned foreign language vocabulary words, followed by an immediate test in which one-third of the words were tested and one-third restudied. To manipulate extrinsic motivation during immediate testing, participants received either monetary reward contingent on test performance or no reward. After 1 week, memory for all words was tested. In the immediate test, reward reduced correct recall and increased commission errors, indicating that reward reduced the number of items that can benefit from successful retrieval. The results in the delayed test revealed that reward additionally reduced the gain received from successful retrieval because memory for initially successfully retrieved words was lower in the reward condition. However, testing was still more effective than restudying under reward conditions because reward undermined long-term memory for concurrently restudied material as well. These findings indicate that providing performance–contingent reward in a test can undermine long-term knowledge acquisition.
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1. Species’ distributions are likely to be affected by a combination of environmental drivers. We used a data set of 11 million species occurrence records over the period 1970–2010 to assess changes in the frequency of occurrence of 673 macro-moth species in Great Britain. Groups of species with different predicted sensitivities showed divergent trends, which we interpret in the context of land-use and climatic changes. 2. A diversity of responses was revealed: 260 moth species declined significantly, whereas 160 increased significantly. Overall, frequencies of occurrence declined, mirroring trends in less species-rich, yet more intensively studied taxa. 3. Geographically widespread species, which were predicted to be more sensitive to land use than to climate change, declined significantly in southern Britain, where the cover of urban and arable land has increased. 4. Moths associated with low nitrogen and open environments (based on their larval host plant characteristics) declined most strongly, which is also consistent with a land-use change explanation. 5. Some moths that reach their northern (leading edge) range limit in southern Britain increased, whereas species restricted to northern Britain (trailing edge) declined significantly, consistent with a climate change explanation. 6. Not all species of a given type behaved similarly, suggesting that complex interactions between species’ attributes and different combinations of environmental drivers determine frequency of occurrence changes. 7. Synthesis and applications. Our findings are consistent with large-scale responses to climatic and land-use changes, with some species increasing and others decreasing. We suggest that land-use change (e.g. habitat loss, nitrogen deposition) and climate change are both major drivers of moth biodiversity change, acting independently and in combination. Importantly, the diverse responses revealed in this species-rich taxon show that multifaceted conservation strategies are needed to minimize negative biodiversity impacts of multiple environmental changes. We suggest that habitat protection, management and ecological restoration can mitigate combined impacts of land-use change and climate change by providing environments that are suitable for existing populations and also enable species to shift their ranges.
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This study combines a narrative and modelling framework to analyse the development of Kazakhstan’s oil sector since its takeoff following separation from the USSR. As in the case of other emerging or transitional countries with large natural resource endowments, a key question is whether the exploitation of the natural resource is a benefit to longer term economic development: is it a curse, a blessing – or neither? Narrative evidence suggests that the establishment of good governance, in terms of institutions and policies, provides a background to sound long-term development, especially if combined with the development of sectors outside the natural resource sector, for example diversification into manufacturing and services, often through attracting FDI. The narrative is supported by econometric modelling of the relationship between domestic output, overseas output and exports of oil, which finds in favour of a sustained positive effect of oil exports on GDP. The model then provides a basis for projection of the growth in GDP given a consensus view of likely developments in the oil price.
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A dynamical wind-wave climate simulation covering the North Atlantic Ocean and spanning the whole 21st century under the A1B scenario has been compared with a set of statistical projections using atmospheric variables or large scale climate indices as predictors. As a first step, the performance of all statistical models has been evaluated for the present-day climate; namely they have been compared with a dynamical wind-wave hindcast in terms of winter Significant Wave Height (SWH) trends and variance as well as with altimetry data. For the projections, it has been found that statistical models that use wind speed as independent variable predictor are able to capture a larger fraction of the winter SWH inter-annual variability (68% on average) and of the long term changes projected by the dynamical simulation. Conversely, regression models using climate indices, sea level pressure and/or pressure gradient as predictors, account for a smaller SWH variance (from 2.8% to 33%) and do not reproduce the dynamically projected long term trends over the North Atlantic. Investigating the wind-sea and swell components separately, we have found that the combination of two regression models, one for wind-sea waves and another one for the swell component, can improve significantly the wave field projections obtained from single regression models over the North Atlantic.
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Changes in land management practices may have significant implications for soil microbial communities important in organic P turnover. Soil bacteria can increase plant P availability by excreting phosphatase enzymes which catalyze the hydrolysis of ester-phosphate bonds. Examining the diversity and abundance of alkaline phosphatase gene harboring bacteria may provide valuable insight into alkaline phosphatase production in soils. This study examined the effect of 20 years of no input organic (ORG), organic with composted manure (ORG + M), conventional (CONV) and restored prairie (PRA) management on soil P bioavailability, alkaline phosphatase activity (ALP), and abundance and diversity of ALP gene (phoD) harboring bacteria in soils from the northern Great Plains of Canada. Management system influenced bioavailable P (P < 0.001), but not total P, with the lowest concentrations in the ORG systems and the highest in PRA. Higher rates of ALP were observed in the ORG and ORG + M treatments with a significant negative correlation between bioavailable P and ALP in 2011 (r2 = 0.71; P = 0.03) and 2012 (r2 = 0.51; P = 0.02), suggesting that ALP activity increased under P limiting conditions. The phoD gene abundance was also highest in ORG and ORG + M resulting in a significant positive relationship between bacterial phoD abundance and ALP activity (r2 = 0.71; P = 0.009). Analysis of phoD bacterial community fingerprints showed a higher number of species in CONV compared to ORG and ORG + M, contrary to what was expected considering greater ALP activity under ORG management. In 2012, banding profiles of ORG + M showed fewer phoD bacterial species following the second manure application, although ALP activity is higher than in 2011. This indicates that a few species may be producing more ALP and that quantitative gene analysis was a better indicator of activity than the number of species present.
Resumo:
Bacterial transformation of phosphorus (P) compounds in soil is largely dependent on soil microbial community function, and is therefore sensitive to anthropogenic disturbances such as fertilization or cropping systems. However, the effect of soil management on the transcription of bacterial genes that encode phosphatases, such as phoD, is largely unknown. This greenhouse study examined the effect of long-term management and P amendment on potential alkaline phosphatase (ALP) activity and phoD gene (DNA) and transcript (RNA) abundance. Soil samples (0–15 cm) were collected from the Glenlea Long-term Rotation near Winnipeg, Manitoba, to compare organic, conventional and prairie management systems. In the greenhouse, pots of soil from each management system were amended with P as either soluble mineral fertilizer or cattle manure and then planted with Italian ryegrass (Lolium multiforum). Soils from each pot were sampled for analysis immediately and after 30 and 106 days. Significant differences among the soil/P treatments were detected for inorganic P, but not the organic P in NaHCO3-extracts. At day 0, ALP activity was similar among the soil/P treatments, but was higher after 30 days for all P amendments in soil from organically managed plots. In contrast, ALP activity in soils under conventional and prairie management responded to increasing rates of manure only, with significant effects from medium and high manure application rates at 30 and 106 days. Differences in ALP activity at 30 days corresponded to the abundance of bacterial phoD genes, which were also significantly higher in soils under organic management. However, this correlation was not significant for transcript abundance. Next-generation sequencing allowed the identification of 199 unique phoD operational taxonomic units (OTUs) from the metagenome (soil DNA) and 35 unique OTUs from the metatranscriptome (soil RNA), indicating that a subset of phoD genes was being transcribed in all soils.
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Consistently with a priori predictions, school retention (repeating a year in school) had largely positive effects for a diverse range of 10 outcomes (e.g., math self-concept, self-efficacy, anxiety, relations with teachers, parents and peers, school grades, and standardized achievement test scores). The design, based on a large, representative sample of German students (N = 1,325, M age = 11.75 years) measured each year during the first five years of secondary school, was particularly strong. It featured four independent retention groups (different groups of students, each repeating one of the four first years of secondary school, total N = 103), with multiple post-test waves to evaluate short- and long-term effects, controlling for covariates (gender, age, SES, primary school grades, IQ) and one or more sets of 10 outcomes realised prior to retention. Tests of developmental invariance demonstrated that the effects of retention (controlling for covariates and pre-retention outcomes) were highly consistent across this potentially volatile early-to-middle adolescent period; largely positive effects in the first year following retention were maintained in subsequent school years following retention. Particularly considering that these results are contrary to at least some of the accepted wisdom about school retention, the findings have important implications for educational researchers, policymakers and parents.
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This in vitro study evaluated the microtensile bond strength of a resin composite to Er:YAG-prepared dentin after long-term storage and thermocycling. Eighty bovine incisors were selected and their roots removed. The crowns were ground to expose superficial dentin. The samples were randomly divided according to cavity preparation method (I-Er:YAG laser and II-carbide bur). Subsequently, an etch & rinse adhesive system was applied and the samples were restored with a resin composite. The samples were subdivided according to time of water storage (WS)/number of thermocycles (TC) performed: A) 24 hours WS/no TC; B) 7 days WS/500 TC; C) 1 month WS/2,000 TC; D) 6 months WS/12,000 TC. The teeth were sectioned in sticks with a cross-sectional area of 1.0-mm(2), which were loaded in tension in a universal testing machine. The data were subjected to two-way ANOVA, Scheffe and Fisher`s tests at a 5% level. In general, the bur-prepared group displayed higher microtensile bond strength values than the laser-treated group. Based on one-month water storage and 2,000 thermocycles, the performance of the tested adhesive system to Er:YAG-laser irradiated dentin was negatively affected (Group IC), while adhesion of the bur-prepared group decreased only within six months of water storage combined with 12,000 thermocycles (Group IID). It may be concluded that adhesion to the Er:YAG laser cavity preparation was more affected by the methods used for simulating degradation of the adhesive interface.
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Background: the Mini Nutritional Assessment (MNA) is a multidimensional method of nutritional evaluation that allows the diagnosis of malnutrition and risk of malnutrition in elderly people, it is important to mention that this method has not been well studied in Brazil. Objective: to verify the use of the MNA in elderly people that has been living in long term institutions for elderly people. Design: transversal study. Participants: 89 people (>= 60 years), being 64.0% men. The average of age for both genders was 73.7 +/- 9.1 years old, being 72.8 +/- 8.9 years old for men, and 75.3 +/- 9.3 years old for women. Setting: long-term institutions for elderly people located in the Southeast of Brazil. Methods: it was calculated the sensibility, specificity, and positive and negative predictive values. It was data to set up a ROC curve to verify the accuracy of the MNA. The variable used as a ""standard"" for the nutritional diagnosis of the elderly people was the corrected arm muscle area because it is able to provide information or an estimative of the muscle reserve of a person being considered a good indicator of malnutrition in elderly people. Results: the sensibility was 84.0%, the specificity was 36.0%, the positive predictive value was 77.0%, and the negative predictive value was 47.0%; the area of the ROC curve was 0.71 (71.0%). Conclusion: the MNA method has showed accuracy, and sensibility when dealing with the diagnosis of malnutrition and risk of malnutrition in institutionalized elderly groups of the Southeastern region of Brazil, however, it presented a low specificity.
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Background: Chronic, intermittent exposure to psychostimulant drugs results in striatal neuroadaptations leading to an increase in an array of behavioral responses on subsequent challenge days. A brain-specific striatal-enriched tyrosine phosphatase (STEP) regulates synaptic strengthening by dephosphorylating and inactivating several key synaptic proteins. This study tests the hypothesis that a substrate-trapping form of STEP will prevent the development of amphetamine-induced stereotypies. Methods: A substrate-trapping STEP protein, TAT-STEP (C-S), was infused into the ventrolateral striatum on each of 5 consecutive exposure days and I hour before amphetamine injection. Animals were challenged to see whether sensitization to the stereotypy-producing effects of amphetamine developed. The same TAT-STEP (C-S) protein was used on acute striatal slices to determine the impact on long-term potentiation and depression. Results: Infusion of TAT-STEP (C-S) blocks the increase of amphetamine-induced stereotypies when given during the 5-day period of sensitization. The TAT-STEP (C-S) has no effect if only infused on the challenge day. Treatment of acute striatal slices with TAT-STEP (C-S) blocks the induction of long-term potentiation and potentates long-term depression. Conclusions: A substrate trapping form of STEP blocks the induction of amphetamine-induced neuroplasticity within the ventrolateral striatum and supports the hypothesis that STEP functions as a tonic break on synaptic strengthening.
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Behavioral consequences of convulsive episodes are well documented, but less attention was paid to changes that occur in response to subconvulsant doses of drugs. We investigated short- and long-term effects of a single systemic injection of a subconvulsant dose of pilocarpine on the behavior of rats as evaluated in the elevated plus maze. Pilocarpine induced an anxiogenic-like profile 24 h later, and this effect persisted for up to 3 months (% of time spent on open arms at 24 h, control = 35.47 +/- 3.23; pilocarpine 150 = 8.2 +/- 2.6; 3 months, control = 31.9 +/- 5.5; pilocarpine 150 = 9.3 +/- 4.9). Temporary inactivation of fimbria-fornix with lidocaine 4% promoted an anxiolytic-like effect per se, suggesting a tonic control of this pathway on the modulation of anxiety-related behaviors. Lidocaine also reduced the anxiogenic-like profile of animals tested 1 month after pilocarpine treatment (% of time spent on open arms, saline + phosphate-buffered saline (PBS) = 31.7 + 3.7; saline + lidocaine = 54.4 + 4.7; pilocarpine + PBS = 10.3 + 4.1; pilocarpine + lidocaine = 40.1 + 9.1). To determine whether the anxiogenic-like effect was mediated by septal region or by direct hippocampal projections to the diencephalon, the neural transmission of post-commissural fornix was blocked, and a similar reduction in the anxiogenic-like effect of pilocarpine was observed. Our findings suggest that a single systemic injection of pilocarpine may induce long-lasting anxiogenic-like behavior in rats, an effect that appears to be mediated, in part, through a direct path from hippocampus to medial hypothalamic sites involved in fear responses.
Resumo:
Long-term effects of angiotensin II (Ang II) on vacuolar H(+)-ATPase were studied in a SV40-transformed cell line derived from rat proximal tubules (IRPTC). Using pH(i) measurements with the fluorescent dye BCECF, the hormone increased Na(+)-independent pH recovery rate from an NH(4)Cl pulse from 0.066 +/- 0.014 pH U/min (n = 7) to 0.14 +/- 0.021 pH U/min (n = 13; p < 0.05) in 10 h Ang II (10(-9) M)-treated cells. The increased activity of H(+)-ATPase did not involve changes in mRNA or protein abundance of the B2 subunit but increased cell surface expression of the V-ATPase. Inhibition of tyrosine kinase by genistein blocked Ang II-dependent stimulation of H(+)-ATPase. Inhibition of phosphatidylinositol-3-kinase (PI3K) by wortmannin and of p38 mitogen-activated protein kinase (MAPK) by SB 203580 also blocked this effect. Thus, long-term exposure of IRPTC cells to Ang II causes upregulation of H(+)-ATPase activity due, at least in part, to increased B2 cell surface expression. This regulatory pathway is dependent on mechanisms involving tyrosine kinase, p38 MAPK, and PI3K activation.