Forecasting tourism demand using consumer expectations

Abstract Purpose- There is a lack of studies on tourism demand forecasting that use non-linear models. The aim of this paper is to introduce consumer expectations in time-series models in order to analyse their usefulness to forecast tourism demand. Design/methodology/approach- The paper focuses on forecasting tourism demand in Catalonia for the four main visitor markets (France, the UK, Germany and Italy) combining qualitative information with quantitative models: autoregressive (AR), autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA), self-exciting threshold autoregressions (SETAR) and Markov switching regime (MKTAR) models. The forecasting performance of the different models is evaluated for different time horizons (one, two, three, six and 12 months). Findings- Although some differences are found between the results obtained for the different countries, when comparing the forecasting accuracy of the different techniques, ARIMA and Markov switching regime models outperform the rest of the models. In all cases, forecasts of arrivals show lower root mean square errors (RMSE) than forecasts of overnight stays. It is found that models with consumer expectations do not outperform benchmark models. These results are extensive to all time horizons analysed. Research limitations/implications- This study encourages the use of qualitative information and more advanced econometric techniques in order to improve tourism demand forecasting. Originality/value- This is the first study on tourism demand focusing specifically on Catalonia. To date, there have been no studies on tourism demand forecasting that use non-linear models such as self-exciting threshold autoregressions (SETAR) and Markov switching regime (MKTAR) models. This paper fills this gap and analyses forecasting performance at a regional level. Keywords Tourism, Forecasting, Consumers, Spain, Demand management Paper type Research paper

Role of brachytherapy in the treatment of cancers of the anal canal. Long-term follow-up and multivariate analysis of a large monocentric retrospective series.

BACKGROUND AND PURPOSE: There are few data on long-term clinical results and tolerance of brachytherapy in anal canal cancer. We present one of the largest retrospective analyses of anal canal cancers treated with external beam radiotherapy with/without (±) chemotherapy followed by a brachytherapy boost. MATERIALS AND METHODS: We performed a retrospective analysis of clinical results in terms of efficacy and toxicity. The impact of different clinical and therapeutic variables on these outcomes was studied. RESULTS: From May 1992 to December 2009, 209 patients received brachytherapy after external beam radiotherapy ± chemotherapy. Of these patients, 163 were stage II or stage IIIA (UICC 2002) and 58 were N1-3. According to age, ECOG performance status (PS), and comorbidities, patients received either radiotherapy alone (58/209) or radiochemotherapy (151/209). The median follow-up was 72.8 months. The 5- and 10-year local control rates were 78.6 and 73.9 %, respectively. Globally, severe acute and late G3-4 reactions (NCI-CTC scale v. 4.0) occurred in 11.2 and 6.3 % of patients, respectively. Univariate analysis showed the statistical impact of the pelvic treatment volume (p = 0.046) and of the total dose (p = 0.02) on the risk of severe acute and late toxicities, respectively. Only six patients required permanent colostomy because of severe late anorectal toxicities. CONCLUSION: After a long follow-up time, brachytherapy showed an acceptable toxicity profile and high local control rates in patients with anal canal cancer.

Dynamic Criteria: a Longitudinal Analysis of Professional Basketball Players" Outcomes

This paper describes the fluctuations of temporal criteria dynamics in the context of professional sport. Specifically, we try to verify the underlying deterministic patterns in the outcomes of professional basketball players. We use a longitudinal approach based on the analysis of the outcomes of 94 basketball players over ten years, covering practically players" entire career development. Time series were analyzed with techniques derived from nonlinear dynamical systems theory. These techniques analyze the underlying patterns in outcomes without previous shape assumptions (linear or nonlinear). These techniques are capable of detecting an intermediate situation between randomness and determinism, called chaos. So they are very useful for the study of dynamic criteria in organizations. We have found most players (88.30%) have a deterministic pattern in their outcomes, and most cases are chaotic (81.92%). Players with chaotic patterns have higher outcomes than players with linear patterns. Moreover, players with power forward and center positions achieve better results than other players. The high number of chaotic patterns found suggests caution when appraising individual outcomes, when coaches try to find the appropriate combination of players to design a competitive team, and other personnel decisions. Management efforts must be made to assume this uncertainty.

Geometric stopping of a random walk and its applications to valuing equity-linked death benefits

We study discrete-time models in which death benefits can depend on a stock price index, the logarithm of which is modeled as a random walk. Examples of such benefit payments include put and call options, barrier options, and lookback options. Because the distribution of the curtate-future-lifetime can be approximated by a linear combination of geometric distributions, it suffices to consider curtate-future-lifetimes with a geometric distribution. In binomial and trinomial tree models, closed-form expressions for the expectations of the discounted benefit payment are obtained for a series of options. They are based on results concerning geometric stopping of a random walk, in particular also on a version of the Wiener-Hopf factorization.

Counter-propagating dual-trap optical tweezers based on linear momentum conservation

We present a dual-trap optical tweezers setup which directly measures forces using linear momentum conservation. The setup uses a counter-propagating geometry, which allows momentum measurement on each beam separately. The experimental advantages of this setup include low drift due to all-optical manipulation, and a robust calibration (independent of the features of the trapped object or buffer medium) due to the force measurement method. Although this design does not attain the high-resolution of some co-propagating setups, we show that it can be used to perform different single molecule measurements: fluctuation-based molecular stiffness characterization at different forces and hopping experiments on molecular hairpins. Remarkably, in our setup it is possible to manipulate very short tethers (such as molecular hairpins with short handles) down to the limit where beads are almost in contact. The setup is used to illustrate a novel method for measuring the stiffness of optical traps and tethers on the basis of equilibrium force fluctuations, i.e., without the need of measuring the force vs molecular extension curve. This method is of general interest for dual trap optical tweezers setups and can be extended to setups which do not directly measure forces.

Anticipating linear stochastic differential equations driven by a Lévy process

In this paper we study the existence of a unique solution for linear stochastic differential equations driven by a Lévy process, where the initial condition and the coefficients are random and not necessarily adapted to the underlying filtration. Towards this end, we extend the method based on Girsanov transformations on Wiener space and developped by Buckdahn [7] to the canonical Lévy space, which is introduced in [25].

Hierarchical linear models in Psychiatry: A bibliometric study

Development of research methods requires a systematic review of their status. This study focuses on the use of Hierarchical Linear Modeling methods in psychiatric research. Evaluation includes 207 documents published until 2007, included and indexed in the ISI Web of Knowledge databases; analyses focuses on the 194 articles in the sample. Bibliometric methods are used to describe the publications patterns. Results indicate a growing interest in applying the models and an establishment of methods after 2000. Both Lotka"s and Bradford"s distributions are adjusted to the data.

Mikrozystisches Makulaödem bei Optikusatrophie: eine Fallserie Microcystic Macular Edema in Optic Nerve Atrophy: A Case Series.

Background:Microcystic macular edema can occur after optic neuropathies of various etiologies, and is easily demonstrated by OCT. We report a cohort of patients with microcystic macular edema. Patients and Methods: All patients with optic neuropathy and microcystic macular edema were enrolled. Demographics, visual function, retinal angiographies and OCT parameters were studied. Results: Nineteen patients (23 eyes) exhibited microcystic macular edema: 10 men/9 women, aged 17-91 years. Etiologies of optic nerve atrophy were compressive (5), inflammatory (4), glaucoma (3), ischemic (3), trauma (2), degenerative (1), and hereditary (1). Median visual acuity was 4/10 (NLP-12/10). Fluorescein angiography showed no leakage. Topography of the microcystic macular edema correlated with near infrared images but with visual field defects in only 26 %. OCT parameters were all abnormal. Conclusions: Microcystic macular edema is a non-specific manifestation from an optic neuropathy of any etiology. The precise mechanism leading to microcystic macular edema remains unknown but trans-synaptic retrograde degeneration with Müller cells dysfunction is likely. Zusammenfassung Hintergrund: Das mikrozystische Makulaödem kann im Rahmen einer Optikusatrophie jeglicher Ätiologie auftreten und ist leicht mit dem OCT zu erkennen. Wir berichten über eine Patientenkohorte mit mikrozystischem Makulaödem. Patienten und Methoden: Alle Patienten mit einer Optikusneuropathie und einem mikrozystischen Makulaödem wurden in diese Studie eingeschlossen. Die Demografie, die Sehfunktion, die Netzhautangiografie und die OCT-Parameter wurden untersucht. Ergebnisse: Neunzehn Patienten (23 Augen) hatten ein mikrozystisches Makulaödem: 10 Männer/9 Frauen im Alter von 17 bis 91 Jahren. Die Ursachen der Optikusatrophie waren Kompressionen (5), Entzündungen (4), Glaukom (3), Ischämien (3), Traumata (2), Degenerationen (1) und genetisch (1). Der mittlere Visus war 0,4 (keine Lichtwahrnehmung 1,2). In der Fluoreszenzangiografie fand sich keine Leckage. Das OCT des mikrozystischen Makulaödems korrelierte immer mit den Infrarot-Bildern (Nahaufnahme), jedoch nur in 26 % mit den Gesichtsfelddefekten. Alle OCT-Parameter waren abnormal. Schlussfolgerungen: Das mikrozystische Makulaödem ist eine unspezifische Manifestation einer Optikusneuropathie jeglicher Ätiologie. Der genaue Mechanismus, der zu einem mikrozystischen Makulaödem führt, ist unbekannt, eine trans-synaptische retrograde Degeneration mit Dysfunktion der Müller-Zellen ist jedoch wahrscheinlich.

Nuevas series anuales de población de América Latina desde el siglo XIX hasta el 2000

El estudio de la población en América Latina es un tema central en la historiografía de la región, sin embargo, las distintas estimaciones existentes muestran importantes discrepancias para los siglos XIX y XX. A partir del contraste de distintas bases de datos, la principal contribución del artículo consiste en ofrecer nuevas series de población homogéneas para el conjunto de países de América Latina, junto a una detallada explicación de la obtención de los datos, así como un análisis de las discrepancias que las distintas fuentes muestran. Los países que aborda este trabajo son Argentina, Brasil, Bolivia, Chile, Colombia, Costa Rica, Cuba, Guatemala, Ecuador, Haití, Honduras, México, Nicaragua, Panamá, Paraguay, Perú, República Dominicana, Uruguay y Venezuela; a lo que se agrega la suma de todos ellos para obtener la población latinoamericana. Estas nuevas series pueden resultar de gran utilidad para reinterpretar la historia económica de América Latina en el largo plazo. The analysis of population levels in Latin America plays an important role in the regional historiography. The estimated series appeared until now offers huge discrepancies, therefore, we believe essential to provide homogeneous series for the 19th and the 20th centuries. In our work we shed new light on this issue, from an exhaustive study of the existing Latin American historical sources for the region. Along with a detailed explanation of the data collection, we also provide an analysis of the discrepancies and the accuracy of sources. The study offers data from 21 countries in Latin America: Argentina, Brazil, Bolivia, Chile, Colombia, Costa Rica, Cuba, Guatemala, Ecuador, Haiti, Honduras, Mexico, Nicaragua, Panama, Paraguay, Peru, Dominican Republic, Uruguay and Venezuela. This new evidence can be a crucial information to revisit Latin American Economic History in the long run.

Integrating Socket Server to the Workstation Environment of Series 40 Platform

Shortening development times of mobile phones are also accelerating the development times of mobile phone software. New features and software components should be partially implemented and tested before the actual hardware is ready. This brings challenges to software development and testing environments, especially on the user interface side. New features should be able to be tested in an environment, which has a look and feel like a real phone. Simulation environments are used to model real mobile phones. This makes possible to execute software in a mobile phone that does not yet exist. The purpose of this thesis is to integrate Socket Server software component to Series 40 simulation environments on Linux and Windows platforms. Socket Server provides TCP/IP connectivity for applications. All other software and hardware components below Socket Server do not exist in simulation environments. The scope of this work is to clarify how that can be done without connectivity problems, including design, implementation and testing phases.

Tietämysperustainen aluenäkemys: Case Kanta-Häme

Tutkimuksen tavoitteena oli arvioida alueellista kehitystä tietämysperustaisesta aluenäkemyksestä käsin Kanta-Hämeen maakunnassa. Tarkoituksena oli myös selvittää millaisia resursseja alueella on tai tulisi olla tulevaisuuden kestävää kilpailukykyä ajatellen. Tietämysperustaisen aluenäkemyksen mukaan kaikista alueella käytettävissä olevista resursseista alueen kestävän kilpailukyvyn lähteenä on tieto, erityisesti hiljainen tieto. Kirjallisuus korostaa myös innovaatioiden merkitystä kilpailukyvyn lähteenä. Työssä käytetystä näkökulmasta katsoen innovaatiot ovat epälineaarisia ja vuorovaikutteisia oppimisprosesseja, joissa sosiaaliset tekijät, kuten yhteistyö ja oppiminen ovat tärkeitä. Työn empiirinen osuus koostuu ryhmähaastatteluista ja yrityskyselystä. Ryhmähaastatteluja käytettiin alueen nykyisen teknotaloudellisen tilanteen ymmärtämiseksi. Ryhmä koostui viidestätoista alueen kehittäjäorganisaatioihin kuuluneesta toimijasta. Ryhmähaastattelujen perusteella yhteistyö, vuorovaikutus ja sosiaalinen pääoma olivat niiden tekijöiden joukossa, jotka vaikuttavat alueen pitkän aikavälin kehittämiseen. Ryhmähaastattelujen avulla oli myös mahdollista muodostaa joitakin ehdotuksia alueen kilpailukykyä koskevista kehittämisen edellytyksistä. Nämä ehdotukset täytyy testata tulevaisuudessa. Tarvitaan myös tarkempaa tutkimusta esimerkiksi sen ymmärtämiseksi, mitkä tekijät vaikuttavat sosiaalisen pääoman muotoutumiseen alueen eri toimijoiden välillä. Yrityskysely koostui 86 yrityksen tiedoista. Kysely toteutettiin kesällä 2004. Tuote- ja palveluinnovaatioilla ja innovaatiotoimintaan tehdyillä tutkimus- ja kehittämispanostuksilla mitaten alueen yrityksissä on innovaatiotoimintaa. Kyselyn perusteella oli myös mahdollista saada selville joitain yritysten innovaatioympäristön kannalta tärkeitä tekijöitä. Toisaalta eräät tulokset olivat osittain ristiriitaisia. Tämän vuoksi esimerkiksi alueen yritysten innovaatiokyvykkyyteen on lähitulevaisuudessa kiinnitettävä enemmän huomiota.

Translations and Translators of English-language Literature in Catalan Literary Publications and Series between 1868 and 1910

Translations into Catalan of English and American authors during the final quarter of the nineteenth century are few and far between. Numerically, English-language literature most likely ranks fifth or sixth among all the translations of this period. We take inventory here of translations found in Catalan magazines from this time (the oldest dates from 1868) and in published series that came out at this time (if these continued until later, we trace them up to their final year). At the same time, the translators are examined, including reference, where available, as to whether the translations are direct or indirect. Finally, we consider some possible causes for the low English-language volume in Catalan translation during the period.

Source separation techniques applied to linear prediction

The prediction filters are well known models for signal estimation, in communications, control and many others areas. The classical method for deriving linear prediction coding (LPC) filters is often based on the minimization of a mean square error (MSE). Consequently, second order statistics are only required, but the estimation is only optimal if the residue is independent and identically distributed (iid) Gaussian. In this paper, we derive the ML estimate of the prediction filter. Relationships with robust estimation of auto-regressive (AR) processes, with blind deconvolution and with source separation based on mutual information minimization are then detailed. The algorithm, based on the minimization of a high-order statistics criterion, uses on-line estimation of the residue statistics. Experimental results emphasize on the interest of this approach.

Exploring Non-linear Transformations for an Entropybased Voice Activity Detector

In this paper we explore the use of non-linear transformations in order to improve the performance of an entropy based voice activity detector (VAD). The idea of using a non-linear transformation comes from some previous work done in speech linear prediction (LPC) field based in source separation techniques, where the score function was added into the classical equations in order to take into account the real distribution of the signal. We explore the possibility of estimating the entropy of frames after calculating its score function, instead of using original frames. We observe that if signal is clean, estimated entropy is essentially the same; but if signal is noisy transformed frames (with score function) are able to give different entropy if the frame is voiced against unvoiced ones. Experimental results show that this fact permits to detect voice activity under high noise, where simple entropy method fails.