Evolutionary and convergence stability for continuous phenotypes in finite populations derived from two-allele models.

The evolution of a quantitative phenotype is often envisioned as a trait substitution sequence where mutant alleles repeatedly replace resident ones. In infinite populations, the invasion fitness of a mutant in this two-allele representation of the evolutionary process is used to characterize features about long-term phenotypic evolution, such as singular points, convergence stability (established from first-order effects of selection), branching points, and evolutionary stability (established from second-order effects of selection). Here, we try to characterize long-term phenotypic evolution in finite populations from this two-allele representation of the evolutionary process. We construct a stochastic model describing evolutionary dynamics at non-rare mutant allele frequency. We then derive stability conditions based on stationary average mutant frequencies in the presence of vanishing mutation rates. We find that the second-order stability condition obtained from second-order effects of selection is identical to convergence stability. Thus, in two-allele systems in finite populations, convergence stability is enough to characterize long-term evolution under the trait substitution sequence assumption. We perform individual-based simulations to confirm our analytic results.

A Laboratory-based Approach to Biological Control of Snails

Development of Schistosoma mansoni in the intermediate host Biomphalaria glabrata is influenced by a number of parasite and snail genes. Understanding the genetics involved in this complex host/parasite relationship may lead to an often discussed approach of introducing resistant B. glabrata into the field as a means of biological control for the parasite. For the snail, juvenile susceptibility to the parasite is controlled by at least four genes, whereas one gene seems to be responsible for adult nonsusceptibility. Obtaining DNA from F2 progeny snails from crosses between parasite-resistant and-susceptible snails, we have searched for molecular markers that show linkage to either the resistant or susceptible phenotype. Both restriction fragment length polymorphism (RFLP) and random amplified polymorphic DNA (RAPD) approaches have been used. To date, using a variety of snail and heterologous species probes, no RFLP marker has been found that segregates with either the resistant or susceptible phenotype in F2 progeny snails. More promising results however have been found with the RAPD approach, where a 1.3 kb marker appears in nearly all resistant progeny, and a 1.1 kb marker appears in all susceptible progeny

Physical Factors Influencing the Oviposition of Lutzomyia migonei (Diptera: Psychodidae) in Laboratory Conditions

To determine the influence of physical factors on oviposition of Lutzomyia migonei (Diptera: Psychodidae) under laboratory conditions, two sets of experiments were performed. The first test was to determine the influence of the size of pots on oviposition. Gravid flies were placed individually or in groups in different oviposition pots. The number of eggs laid, oviposition time and survival of gravid females were observed. In the second experiment, the influence of irregular surfaces on oviposition was studied. The results suggested that physical space was not an important factor in the oviposition behavior of L. migonei and that the flies showed a preference to oviposit on irregular horizontal surfaces in response to thigmotropic behavior

Technology, business models and network structure in the airline industry

Network airlines have been increasingly focusing their operations on hub airports through the exploitation of connecting traffic, allowing them to take advantage of economies of traffic density, which are unequivocal in the airline industry. Less attention has been devoted to airlines' decisions on point-to-point thin routes, which could be served using different aircraft technologies and different business models. This paper examines, both theoretically and empirically, the impact on airlines' networks of the two major innovations in the airline industry in the last two decades: the regional jet technology and the low-cost business model. We show that, under certain circumstances, direct services on point-to-point thin routes can be viable and thus airlines may be interested in deviating passengers out of the hub. Keywords: regional jet technology; low-cost business model; point-to-point network; hub-and-spoke network JEL Classi…fication Numbers: L13; L2; L93

Estimation of parametric and nonparametric models for univariate claim severity distributions - an approach using R

This paper presents an analysis of motor vehicle insurance claims relating to vehicle damage and to associated medical expenses. We use univariate severity distributions estimated with parametric and non-parametric methods. The methods are implemented using the statistical package R. Parametric analysis is limited to estimation of normal and lognormal distributions for each of the two claim types. The nonparametric analysis presented involves kernel density estimation. We illustrate the benefits of applying transformations to data prior to employing kernel based methods. We use a log-transformation and an optimal transformation amongst a class of transformations that produces symmetry in the data. The central aim of this paper is to provide educators with material that can be used in the classroom to teach statistical estimation methods, goodness of fit analysis and importantly statistical computing in the context of insurance and risk management. To this end, we have included in the Appendix of this paper all the R code that has been used in the analysis so that readers, both students and educators, can fully explore the techniques described

Calibration of surface contamination monitors for the detection of iodine incorporation in the thyroid gland.

In Switzerland, individuals exposed to the risk of activity intake are required to perform regular monitoring. Monitoring consists in a screening measurement and is meant to be performed using commonly available laboratory instruments. More particularly, iodine intake is measured using a surface contamination monitor. The goal of the present paper is to report the calibration method developed for thyroid screening instruments. It consists of measuring the instrument response to a known activity located in the thyroid gland of a standard neck phantom. One issue of this procedure remains that the iodine radioisotopes have a short half-life. Therefore, the adequacy and limitations to simulate the short-lived radionuclides with so-called mock radionuclides of longer half-life were also evaluated. In light of the results, it has been decided to use only the appropriate iodine sources to perform the calibration.

What do we gain from simplicity versus complexity in species distribution models?

Species distribution models (SDMs) are widely used to explain and predict species ranges and environmental niches. They are most commonly constructed by inferring species' occurrence-environment relationships using statistical and machine-learning methods. The variety of methods that can be used to construct SDMs (e.g. generalized linear/additive models, tree-based models, maximum entropy, etc.), and the variety of ways that such models can be implemented, permits substantial flexibility in SDM complexity. Building models with an appropriate amount of complexity for the study objectives is critical for robust inference. We characterize complexity as the shape of the inferred occurrence-environment relationships and the number of parameters used to describe them, and search for insights into whether additional complexity is informative or superfluous. By building 'under fit' models, having insufficient flexibility to describe observed occurrence-environment relationships, we risk misunderstanding the factors shaping species distributions. By building 'over fit' models, with excessive flexibility, we risk inadvertently ascribing pattern to noise or building opaque models. However, model selection can be challenging, especially when comparing models constructed under different modeling approaches. Here we argue for a more pragmatic approach: researchers should constrain the complexity of their models based on study objective, attributes of the data, and an understanding of how these interact with the underlying biological processes. We discuss guidelines for balancing under fitting with over fitting and consequently how complexity affects decisions made during model building. Although some generalities are possible, our discussion reflects differences in opinions that favor simpler versus more complex models. We conclude that combining insights from both simple and complex SDM building approaches best advances our knowledge of current and future species ranges.

Participation of interleukin-5, interleukin-8 and leukotriene B4 in eosinophil accumulation in two different experimental models

There are several experimental models describing in vivo eosinophil (EO) migration, including ip injection of a large volume of saline (SAL) or Sephadex beads (SEP). The aim of this study was to investigate the mechanisms involved in the EO migration in these two models. Two consecutive injections of SAL given 48 hr apart, induced a selective recruitment of EO into peritoneal cavity of rats, which peaked 48 hr after the last injection. SEP, when injected ip, promoted EO accumulation in rats. The phenomenom was dose-related and peaked 48 hr after SEP injection. To investigate the mediators involved in this process we showed that BW A4C, MK 886 and dexamethasone (DXA) inhibited the EO migration induced by SAL and SEP. To investigate the source of the EO chemotactic factor we showed that mast cells, macrophages (MO), but not lymphocytes, incubated in vitro in presence of SAL released a factor which induced EO migration. With SEP, only mast cells release a factor that induced EO migration, which was inhibited by BW A4C, MK 886 and DXA. Furthermore, the chemotactic activity of SAL-stimulated mast cells was inhibited by antisera against IL-5 and IL-8 (interleukin). SAL-stimulated MO were only inhibited by anti-IL-8 antibodies as well SEP-stimulated mast cells. These results suggest that the EO migration induced by SAL may be dependent on resident mast cells and MO and mediated by LTB4, IL-5 and IL-8. SEP-induced EO migration was dependent on mast cells and may be mediated by LTB4 and IL-8. Furthermore, IL-5 and IL-8 induced EO migration, which was also dependent on resident cells and mediated by LTB4 . In conclusion, EO migration induced by SAL is dependent on mast cells and MO, whereas that induced by SEP is dependent on mast cells alone. Stimulated mast cells release LTB4, IL-5 and IL-8 while MO release LTB4 and IL-8. The IL-5 and IL-8 release by the SAL or SEP-stimulated resident cells may act in an autocrine fashion, thus potentiating LTB4 release.

Role of eosinophilic airway inflammation in models of asthma

Eosinophils play a central role in the establishment and outcome of bronchial inflammation in asthma. Animal models of allergy are useful to answer questions related to mechanisms of allergic inflammation. We have used models of sensitized and boosted guinea pigs to investigate the nature of bronchial inflammation in allergic conditions. These animals develop marked bronchial infiltration composed mainly of CD4+ T-lymphocytes and eosinophils. Further provocation with antigen leads to degranulation of eosinophils and ulceration of the bronchial mucosa. Eosinophils are the first cells to increase in numbers in the mucosa after antigen challenge and depend on the expression of alpha 4 integrin to adhere to the vascular endothelium and transmigrate to the mucosa. Blockage of alpha4 integrin expression with specific antibody prevents not only the transmigration of eosinophils but also the development of bronchial hyperresponsiveness (BHR) to agonists in sensitized and challenged animals, clearly suggesting a role for this cell type in this altered functional state. Moreover, introduction of antibody against Major Basic Protein into the airways also prevents the development of BHR in similar model. BHR can also be suppressed by the use of FK506, an immunosuppressor that reduces in almost 100% the infiltration of eosinophils into the bronchi of allergic animals. These data support the concept that eosinophil is the most important pro-inflammatory factor in bronchial inflammation associated with allergy.

Genetic Variation among Natural and Laboratory Colony Populations of Lutzomyia longipalpis (Lutz & Neiva, 1912)(Diptera:Psychodidae) from Colombia

Genetic diversity among three field populations of Lutzomyia longipalpis in Colombia was studied using isozyme analysis. Study sites were as much as 598 km apart and included populations separated by the eastern Cordillera of the Andes. Genetic variability among populations, estimated by heterozygosity, was within values typical for insects in general (8.1%). Heterozygosity for field populations were compared with a laboratory colony from Colombia (Melgar colony) and were only slightly lower. These results suggest that establishment and long term maintenance of the Melgar colony has had little effect on the level of isozyme variability it carries. Genetic divergences between populations was evaluated using estimates of genetic distance. Genetic divergence among the three field populations was low (D=0.021), suggesting they represent local populations within a single species. Genetic distance between field populations and the Melgar colony was also low (D=0.016), suggesting that this colony population does not depart significantly from natural populations. Finally, comparisons were made between Colombian populations and colonies from Brazil and Costa Rica. Genetic distance values were high between Colombian and both Brazil and Costa Rica colony populations (D=0.199 and 0.098 respectively) providing additional support for our earlier report that populations from the three countries represent distinct species

Helminth Parasites of Conventionally Maintained Laboratory Mice: II- Inbred Strains with an Adaptation of the Anal Swab Technique

Worm burdens recovered from inbred mice strains, namely C57Bl/6, C57Bl/10, CBA, BALB/c, DBA/2 and C3H/He, conventionally maintained in two institutional animal houses in the State of Rio de Janeiro, RJ, Brazil, were analyzed and compared, regarding their prevalences and mean intensities.Three parasite species were observed: the nematodes Aspiculuris tetraptera, Syphacia obvelata and the cestode Vampirolepis nana. A modification of the anal swab technique is also proposed for the first time as an auxiliary tool for the detection of oxyurid eggs in mice

Mixture of bivariate Poisson regression models with an application to insurance

In a recent paper Bermúdez [2009] used bivariate Poisson regression models for ratemaking in car insurance, and included zero-inflated models to account for the excess of zeros and the overdispersion in the data set. In the present paper, we revisit this model in order to consider alternatives. We propose a 2-finite mixture of bivariate Poisson regression models to demonstrate that the overdispersion in the data requires more structure if it is to be taken into account, and that a simple zero-inflated bivariate Poisson model does not suffice. At the same time, we show that a finite mixture of bivariate Poisson regression models embraces zero-inflated bivariate Poisson regression models as a special case. Additionally, we describe a model in which the mixing proportions are dependent on covariates when modelling the way in which each individual belongs to a separate cluster. Finally, an EM algorithm is provided in order to ensure the models’ ease-of-fit. These models are applied to the same automobile insurance claims data set as used in Bermúdez [2009] and it is shown that the modelling of the data set can be improved considerably.

Population Biology of Rhodnius domesticus Neiva & Pinto, 1923 (Hemiptera: Reduviidae) under Laboratory Conditions

The entire life cycle of Rhodnius domesticus, fed weekly on mice, was studied under controlled conditions. Aspects related to hatching, life time, mortality, feeding behaviour and fecundity for each stage of the insect life-cycle were evaluated. The hatching rate observed in 100 eggs was 57% and the mean time of hatching was 15.6 days. Forty-six nymphs (80.7%) completed the cycle and the mean time from NI to adult was 93.8 days. The average span in days for each stage was 12.4 for NI, 9.8 for NII, 14.2 for NIII, 16.8 for NIV and 25.0 for NV. The number of bloodmeals in each nymphal stage varied from 1 to 3. The mortality rate was 12.3% for NI, 3.5% for NII and 1.7% for NIII and NV nymphs. The mean number of eggs laid per female in a 9-month period was 333.1. Average adult survival rates were 287.6 +133 and 328 +73 days for males and females respectively.