Australia and Japan after the second world war: constructing new futures in Asia

The subject of my lecture is Australian-Japanese relations since the end of the Second World War, but I’m keen to explore these relations in the context of ideas, efforts and practical results in relation to collaborative and other efforts towards regionalism in the Asia Pacific. My general argument is that, on the one hand, Australian-Japanese relations have developed with a strength that would have been hard to imagine in 1945, and with an important focus on regional growth and security. The incremental steps taken may have been small and at a steady pace but, given the legacy of deep scars resulting from the Second World War and given the limitations on the defence aspects of Japan’s postwar involvement in regional affairs (ie the self defence requirement of the Constitution and the practice of spending not more than one per cent of Gross National Product on defence), these have been very successfully negotiated steps. On the other hand, there are some opportunities for greater joint leadership in the region which may or may not be realized. The incremental steps took place in difficult and changing circumstances; and what I would like to do now is remind us of how many unknowns attached to what might happen in Australian- Japan relationships after the Second World War, partly because there were so many unknowns about how the post-war international order would settle, and partly because Australian-Japanese relations started from such a desperately low point. I will try to walk through some of the key features of different periods, as I see the periodisation logically falling out after the war, and draw some thoughts together in relation to more recent initiatives on regional and bilateral co-operation. My training is as a historian, and that shapes the way this lecture works, and for most of my career I have been an Australian historian of international relations, looking particularly at Australia’s changing role in world affairs, and that is also likely to show in what follows－possibly at the expense of greater detail from Japanese perspectives. But I hope you will understand that, and also the limitations involved in trying to paint with a broad brush on a huge historical canvas.

The relevance of Asian development bank: existing in the shadow of the Asian infrastructure investment bank

This paper analyses the potential impact of the China-led Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank (AIIB) on the Japan-USA-led Asian Development Bank (ADB). Given the financial strengths and the technical know-how of the newly formed AIIB there is a question about thefuture role and indeed relevance of the ADB. The questions canvassed in this article refer to ADB’s ability to change and adapt to the new situation, where it is no longer the dominant multi-lateral development bank (MDB) in the Asia-Pacific region. Against this background the discussion turns to issues concerning the geo-political sphere of influence of the ADB andAIIB and analyses the ADB – AIIB geo-political equilibrium in the Asia-Pacific region. Subsequently this paper discusses factors that may impact on ADB’s future relevance.

Has China displaced its competitors in high tech trade?

This paper empirically investigated the extent to which China displaced its competitors in high-tech exports using disaggregated data for the period 1992–2013. To address the endogeneity problem, we used a comprehensive set of instruments for Chinese high-tech exports in relevant markets, including China's GDP and distances to those markets. Results of our IV regressions revealed that in most of the high-tech sectors, Chinese exports had displaced the exports of its developing competitors such as India, South American exporters like Brazil and Mexico, and South-East Asian countries like Malaysia, Singapore, Thailand and Vietnam, especially in the period prior to the 2007–08 global financial crisis. Yet, Chinese exports had been associated with more high-tech exports of developed exporters like OECD countries, South Korea and Japan. Our findings suggest that while China became the world's top high-tech exporter, its high-tech exported products had been substitutes to those of other developing and emerging economies but complementary to that of developed economies.

China na América Latina: uma análise da perspectiva dos investimentos diretos estrangeiros

Este trabalho discute a dinâmica dos investimentos diretos da China para as economias mundiais e, particularmente, para a América do Sul. Após mais de três décadas de intenso crescimento econômico e de forte aumento de sua participação no comércio mundial, a economia chinesa vem realizando crescentes investimentos no exterior. No caso das economias da América do Sul, a influência comercial chinesa tem alterado substancialmente a importância de tradicionais parceiros comerciais e mesmo a importância do Brasil na região. Os fluxos de investimentos diretos, mesmo que ainda em pequena escala, indicam o mesmo caminho de aumento de sua influência sobre as diversas economias da região, especialmente na exploração de fontes de materiais primais e de alimentos. Com isso, a China reforça não somente pela via comercial, mas também pelos influxos de investimentos, a característica agrícolaprimária das economias da região.

Essays on the general equilibrium effects of barriers to trade on economic growth, foreign trade and the location of economic activity in Brazil

This work presents a fully operational interstate CGE model implemented for the Brazilian economy that tries to quantify both the role of barriers to trade on economic growth and foreign trade performance and how the distribution of the economic activity may change as the country opens up to foreign trade. Among the distinctive features embedded in the model, modeling of external scale economies, port efficiency and land-maritime transport costs provides an innovative way of dealing explicitly with theoretical issues related to integrated regional systems. In order to illustrate the role played by the quality of infrastructure and geography on the country‟s foreign and interregional trade performance, a set of simulations is presented where barriers to trade are significantly reduced. The relative importance of trade policy, port efficiency and land-maritime transport costs for the country trade relations and regional growth is then detailed and quantified, considering both short run as well as long run scenarios. A final set of simulations shed some light on the effects of liberal trade policies on regional inequality, where the manufacturing sector in the state of São Paulo, taken as the core of industrial activity in the country, is subjected to different levels of external economies of scale. Short-run core-periphery effects are then traced out suggesting the prevalence of agglomeration forces over diversion forces could rather exacerbate regional inequality as import barriers are removed up to a certain level. Further removals can reverse this balance in favor of diversion forces, implying de-concentration of economic activity. In the long run, factor mobility allows a better characterization of the balance between agglomeration and diversion forces among regions. Regional dispersion effects are then clearly traced-out, suggesting horizontal liberal trade policies to benefit both the poorest regions in the country as well as the state of São Paulo. This long run dispersion pattern, on one hand seems to unravel the fragility of simple theoretical results from recent New Economic Geography models, once they get confronted with more complex spatially heterogeneous (real) systems. On the other hand, it seems to capture the literature‟s main insight: the possible role of horizontal liberal trade policies as diversion forces leading to a more homogeneous pattern of interregional economic growth.

The promotion of outward foreign direct investment: a comparative analysis of Bric countries

Esta dissertação procurou identificar o papel dos governos na internacionalização produtiva de empresas dos países BRIC. Por meio de uma análise comparativa do comportamento dos investimentos diretos no exterior (IDE) destes países e dos mecanismos existentes de suporte à internacionalização das empresas, foi possível identificar as diferentes maneiras de envolvimento desses governos na internacionalização produtiva de suas empresas e apontar lacunas de políticas públicas nestes países. Destarte, esta dissertação contribui à compreensão inicial sobre como e por que os governos destes países têm promovido o desenvolvimento de multinacionais. A rápida ascensão das multinacionais dos países BRIC é um fenômeno recente. Apesar de terem investido no exterior anteriormente, apenas a partir do início dos anos 2000 que o IDE de empresas destes países tornou-se significativo. Desde então, as multinacionais dos países BRIC estão se tornando importantes players em diversas indústrias, adquirindo competidores de países desenvolvidos e em desenvolvimento, e redesenhando a concorrência em muitas indústrias globais. Neste processo, os governos dos países BRIC têm desempenhado um papel importante. Até o início dos anos 1990, o IDE era restringido porque era associado a efeitos negativos sobre as economias domésticas (como por exemplo, à redução de investimentos no país de origem, à exportação de empregos, e a problemas na balança de pagamentos). Desde o início dos anos 2000, entretanto, os governos dos países BRIC mudaram de percepção e passaram a adotar políticas favoráveis à internacionalização produtiva de empresas domésticas. Eles perceberam a importância da internacionalização para a manutenção ou expansão da competitividade das empresas domésticas em um mundo globalizado. A China, e em menor grau a Índia, estão um passo adiante, tendo já posto em prática um conjunto de instrumentos específicos que facilitam a internacionalização de suas empresas. O Brasil e a Rússia ainda têm de tomar novas medidas para criar um ambiente propício para que suas empresas possam mais facilmente explorar as vantagens da expansão global.

Foreign support, internal political disputes and mass killings

This paper studies the incentives underlying the relations between foreign countries and rival domestic groups. It models the interaction in a infinitely-repeated game between these three players. The domestic groups bargain for a split of the domestic surplus and may engage in violent dispute for power and in unilateral mass killing processes. The foreign country may choose to support one of these groups in exchange for monetary transfers. The paper characterizes the parametric set in which strategies leading to no violent disputes nor mass killings are Subgame Perfect Nash Equilibra in the presence of foreign support, but not in its absence.

Brazilian foreign policy in the Cardoso era: The search for autonomy through integration

The Fernando Henrique Cardoso administration attempted to replace a reactive foreign policy agenda dominated by a logic of autonomy through distance with a proactive international agenda guided by a logic of autonomy through integration. In adopting this agenda, the administration maintained that Brazil would be able to confront its problems and secure more control over its future if it actively contributed to elaborating the norms and guidelines of the administration of the global order. Because of structural weaknesses, however, this policy of integration, adherence, and participation was not adequately accompanied by positions entailing practical responsibilities - responsibilities that would have prepared both government and civil society for a higher profile in the post - cold-war era. In the end, the gains achieved during Cardoso's tenure failed to alter Brazil's international standing in any significant way. © 2007 Latin American Perspectives.

Foreign Direct Investment in Latin America and the Caribbean 2010

Includes bibliography

Foreign Direct Investment in Latin America and the Caribbean 2011

Includes bibliography

Foreign Investment in Latin America and the Caribbean 2000

Includes bibliography

Latin America and the Caribbean in the World Economy 2005-2006

Includes bibliography

Latin America and the Caribbean in the World Economy 2010-2011: The region in the decade of the emerging economies

Incluye Bibliografía

Latin America and the Caribbean in the World Economy 2011-2012: Continuing crisis in the centre and new opportunities for developing economies

Includes bibliography