Preliminary comparison of natural versus model-predicted recovery of vessel-generated seagrass injuries in Florida Keys National Marine Sanctuary

Each year, more than 500 motorized vessel groundings cause widespread damage to seagrasses in Florida Keys National Marine Sanctuary (FKNMS). Under Section 312 of the National Marine Sanctuaries Act (NMSA), any party responsible for the loss, injury, or destruction of any Sanctuary resource, including seagrass, is liable to the United States for response costs and resulting damages. As part of the damage assessment process, a cellular automata model is utilized to forecast seagrass recovery rates. Field validation of these forecasts was accomplished by comparing model-predicted percent recovery to that which was observed to be occurring naturally for 30 documented vessel grounding sites. Model recovery forecasts for both Thalassia testudinum and Syringodium filiforme exceeded natural recovery estimates for 93.1% and 89.5% of the sites, respectively. For Halodule wrightii, the number of over- and under-predictions by the model was similar. However, where under-estimation occurred, it was often severe, reflecting the well-known extraordinary growth potential of this opportunistic species. These preliminary findings indicate that the recovery model is consistently generous to Responsible Parties in that the model forecasts a much faster recovery than was observed to occur naturally, particularly for T. testudinum, the dominant seagrass species in the region and the species most often affected. Environmental setting (i.e., location, wave exposure) influences local seagrass landscape pattern and may also play a role in the recovery dynamics for a particular injury site. An examination of the relationship between selected environmental factors and injury recovery dynamics is currently underway. (PDF file contains 20 pages.)

A quantitative witness for Greenberger-Horne-Zeilinger entanglement

Along with the vast progress in experimental quantum technologies there is an increasing demand for the quantification of entanglement between three or more quantum systems. Theory still does not provide adequate tools for this purpose. The objective is, besides the quest for exact results, to develop operational methods that allow for efficient entanglement quantification. Here we put forward an analytical approach that serves both these goals. We provide a simple procedure to quantify Greenberger-Horne-Zeilinger-type multipartite entanglement in arbitrary three-qubit states. For two qubits this method is equivalent to Wootters' seminal result for the concurrence. It establishes a close link between entanglement quantification and entanglement detection by witnesses, and can be generalised both to higher dimensions and to more than three parties.

Measures of turbidity in coastal waters, Coconut Island, Oahu, Hawaii, August 31 - September 2, 2005: workshop proceedings

A three day workshop on turbidity measurements was held at the Hawaii Institute of Marine Biology from August 3 1 to September 2, 2005. The workshop was attended by 30 participants from industry, coastal management agencies, and academic institutions. All groups recognized common issues regarding the definition of turbidity, limitations of consistent calibration, and the large variety of instrumentation that nominally measure "turbidity." The major recommendations, in order of importance for the coastal monitoring community are listed below: 1. The community of users in coastal ecosystems should tighten instrument design configurations to minimize inter-instrument variability, choosing a set of specifications that are best suited for coastal waters. The IS0 7027 design standard is not tight enough. Advice on these design criteria should be solicited through the ASTM as well as Federal and State regulatory agencies representing the majority of turbidity sensor end users. Parties interested in making turbidity measurements in coastal waters should develop design specifications for these water types rather than relying on design standards made for the analysis of drinking water. 2. The coastal observing groups should assemble a community database relating output of specific sensors to different environmental parameters, so that the entire community of users can benefit from shared information. This would include an unbiased, parallel study of different turbidity sensors, employing a variety of designs and configuration in the broadest range of coastal environments. 3. Turbidity should be used as a measure of relative change in water quality rather than an absolute measure of water quality. Thus, this is a recommendation for managers to develop their own local calibrations. See next recommendation. 4. If the end user specifically wants to use a turbidity sensor to measure a specific water quality parameter such as suspended particle concentration, then direct measurement of that water quality parameter is necessary to correlate with 'turbidity1 for a particular environment. These correlations, however, will be specific to the environment in which they are measured. This works because there are many environments in which water composition is relatively stable but varies in magnitude or concentration. (pdf contains 22 pages)

Workshop on climate change and salmon production, Vancouver, March 26-27, 1998: technical report

The Workshop on Climate Change and Salmon Production was held in Vancouver, Canada, 26-27 March 1998. The Workshop was organized and sponsored by the North Pacific Anadromous Fish Commission (NPAFC). Each Party to the Commission designated one scientist to the Workshop Steering Committee. Each member of the Steering Committee chaired one half-day session of the Workshop. All necessary arrangements were made by the NPAFC Secretariat in cooperation with the Steering Committee and the Canadian Party to the Commission. (PDF contains 60 pages) Over 70 scientists, industry representatives and fisheries officials attended the Workshop. There were 20 presentations of scientific papers followed by the discussion sessions. Extended abstracts are included in this Technical Report, which also contains opening address by the Chairman of the Steering Committee and short review of the Workshop by the Coordinator. The material presented in the Technical Report has not been peer reviewed and does not necessarily reflect the views of either the NPAFC or the Parties. The material has been edited by the technical editor for clarity and publication purposes only. Items in this Report should not be cited except as personal communication and with the author's permission.

Entgiftungsstoffwechsel der Nordsee-Kliesche (Limanda limanda)

In the framework of monitoring programmes organized under several sea protection conventions (HELSINKI Conv., OSPAR Conv.) the contracting parties are requested to develop appropriate techniques for Biological-Effect- Monitoring. In following these recommendations the Institut for Fisheries Ecology studies the 7-ethoxyresorufin- O-deethylase (EROD) activity in the liver of dab. EROD represents one enzyme of the cytochrome P-450 species, also called mixed function oxygenases (MFO), which is induced by certain organic contaminants, e.g. PCBs. On the other hand, an influence of natural factors like season, temperature or spawning on the EROD activity may be possible. The present study represents an insight into the status of the EROD activity in North Sea dab. Ultimately, we intend to decide if EROD activity is an appropriate tool to detect effects of contaminants. The EROD activity in the liver of 687 dabs, caught in the North Sea at different seasons in 1995 and 1996 with the fishery research vessel “Walther Herwig III”, has been determined and the data obtained have been statistically evaluated. The logarithmically transformed values of the EROD activity are following approximately a normal distribution. Due to the wide variation of the enzyme activities and due to the small number of samples minor differences between samples are not detectable. Nevertheless, comparing the enzyme activities at different sites of the North Sea, some significant differences have been identified. A model for the discription of seasonal variations of EROD activity, developed at the Biologische Anstalt Helgoland, could be helpful for interpretation.

The long road of climate negotiations: From Kyoto to Paris stopping over in Doha

4 p.

Awakening a sleeping giant: The riddle of Latino political participation

For some time now, the Latino voice has been gradually gaining strength in American politics, particularly in such states as California, Florida, Illinois, New York, and Texas, where large numbers of Latino immigrants have settled and large numbers of electoral votes are at stake. Yet the issues public officials in these states espouse and the laws they enact often do not coincide with the interests and preferences of Latinos. The fact that Latinos in California and elsewhere have not been able to influence the political agenda in a way that is commensurate with their numbers may reflect their failure to participate fully in the political process by first registering to vote and then consistently turning out on election day to cast their ballots.

To understand Latino voting behavior, I first examine Latino political participation in California during the ten general elections of the 1980s and 1990s, seeking to understand what percentage of the eligible Latino population registers to vote, with what political party they register, how many registered Latinos to go the polls on election day, and what factors might increase their participation in politics. To ensure that my findings are not unique to California, I also consider Latino voter registration and turnout in Texas for the five general elections of the 1990s and compare these results with my California findings.

I offer a new approach to studying Latino political participation in which I rely on county-level aggregate data, rather than on individual survey data, and employ the ecological inference method of generalized bounds. I calculate and compare Latino and white voting-age populations, registration rates, turnout rates, and party affiliation rates for California's fifty-eight counties. Then, in a secondary grouped logit analysis, I consider the factors that influence these Latino and white registration, turnout, and party affiliation rates.

I find that California Latinos register and turn out at substantially lower rates than do whites and that these rates are more volatile than those of whites. I find that Latino registration is motivated predominantly by age and education, with older and more educated Latinos being more likely to register. Motor voter legislation, which was passed to ease and simplify the registration process, has not encouraged Latino registration . I find that turnout among California's Latino voters is influenced primarily by issues, income, educational attainment, and the size of the Spanish-speaking communities in which they reside. Although language skills may be an obstacle to political participation for an individual, the number of Spanish-speaking households in a community does not encourage or discourage registration but may encourage turnout, suggesting that cultural and linguistic assimilation may not be the entire answer.

With regard to party identification, I find that Democrats can expect a steady Latino political identification rate between 50 and 60 percent, while Republicans attract 20 to 30 percent of Latino registrants. I find that education and income are the dominant factors in determining Latino political party identification, which appears to be no more volatile than that of the larger electorate.

Next, when I consider registration and turnout in Texas, I find that Latino registration rates are nearly equal to those of whites but that Texas Latino turnout rates are volatile and substantially lower than those of whites.

Low turnout rates among Latinos and the volatility of these rates may explain why Latinos in California and Texas have had little influence on the political agenda even though their numbers are large and increasing. Simply put, the voices of Latinos are little heard in the halls of government because they do not turn out consistently to cast their votes on election day.

While these findings suggest that there may not be any short-term or quick fixes to Latino participation, they also suggest that Latinos should be encouraged to participate more fully in the political process and that additional education may be one means of achieving this goal. Candidates should speak more directly to the issues that concern Latinos. Political parties should view Latinos as crossover voters rather than as potential converts. In other words, if Latinos were "a sleeping giant," they may now be a still-drowsy leviathan waiting to be wooed by either party's persuasive political messages and relevant issues.

International Climate Finance and its Influence on Fairness and Policy

27 p.

A dynamic CGE modelling approach for analyzing trade-offs in climate change policy options: the case of Green Climate Fund

38 p.

Etnogeografia do underground cristão brasileiro: concentração e dispersão das Tribos em nome do Senhor

A presente pesquisa visa investigar as identidades e formas espaciais cambiantes produzidas pelo movimento emergente underground cristão. Situados dentro de um campo mais vasto ao qual estão ligados os evangélicos e jovens de outras redes de afinidade estética , o movimento agrega diferentes grupamentos e manifestações religiosas, identitário-culturais que, a despeito de suas distinções visuais, musicais, rituais e bíblico-doutrinárias, estão unidos por uma causa, na verdade um Ideal: levar Cristo a todas as culturas juvenis urbanas que, historicamente, são alvos de preconceito e negligência por parte das igrejas tradicionais católicas ou protestantes. Assim, configuram heterotopias do sagrado que revelam as novas tendências de identificação, filiação e ritualização religiosas, assim como as novas práticas de compromisso assumidas por estes jovens subversivos que, pela ideia de militância comunitária, lutam simbolicamente contra o institucionalismo, o marketing selvagem e a impessoalidade que dominam o cenário cristão atual, bem como buscam respostas, pela via da cultura, para as inquietações, radicalismos e outros distúrbios de uma Nova Era pós-secular, onde a geografia do sagrado faz-se imanente nos indivíduos, e onde a territorialidade não se restringe mais aos templos e ao controle de autoridades eclesiásticas. Um panorama desse tipo permite compreender como os cristãos emergentes configuram lugares religiosos e itinerários simbólicos para, simultaneamente, reabastecer a fé e alcançar os cativos do Mundo.

O agravamento do risco no contrato de seguro

Este trabalho objetivou demonstrar o que é e quais os requisitos adotados pela doutrina e pela jurisprudência para que seja aplicado o instituto do agravamento do risco (previsto nos artigos 768 e 769 do Código Civil) nos contratos de seguro, e quais os seus efeitos jurídicos. Para tanto, examinou-se o contrato de seguro buscando revelar a dimensão coletiva que este tipo negocial possui por excelência, em detrimento de parte da doutrina ainda restrita a uma leitura atomística e individualista deste contrato. Partiu-se, ainda, da premissa de que a boa-fé (seja na sua acepção objetiva ou subjetiva) é qualificada no contrato de seguro, eis que este tipo contratual é todo sob ela estruturado. O princípio da boa-fé é uma via de mão dupla que cria deveres para ambas as partes, cujas declarações e comportamentos serão fundamentais para a delimitação do objeto do seguro e para o alcance da função social desse tipo contratual. A boa-fé estará, ainda, incisivamente presente e modelando a relação obrigacional do seguro em todas as fases contratuais: antes da conclusão do contrato, na apresentação da proposta do contrato; durante a relação obrigacional, nas declarações necessárias sobre eventuais alterações no risco (tais como o seu agravamento), e, ainda, na fase pós-contratual, sempre considerando a natureza comunitária do seguro. Passou-se, também, por algumas questões polêmicas envolvendo a utilização de determinadas cláusulas no seguro, tidas como contrárias à boa-fé, a exemplo da cláusula perfil, cuja validade deve ser avaliada no caso concreto, e possui íntima relação com o agravamento do risco.

Essays on Correlated Equilibrium and Voter Turnout

This thesis consists of three essays in the areas of political economy and game theory, unified by their focus on the effects of pre-play communication on equilibrium outcomes.

Communication is fundamental to elections. Chapter 2 extends canonical voter turnout models, where citizens, divided into two competing parties, choose between costly voting and abstaining, to include any form of communication, and characterizes the resulting set of Aumann's correlated equilibria. In contrast to previous research, high-turnout equilibria exist in large electorates and uncertain environments. This difference arises because communication can coordinate behavior in such a way that citizens find it incentive compatible to follow their correlated signals to vote more. The equilibria have expected turnout of at least twice the size of the minority for a wide range of positive voting costs.

In Chapter 3 I introduce a new equilibrium concept, called subcorrelated equilibrium, which fills the gap between Nash and correlated equilibrium, extending the latter to multiple mediators. Subcommunication equilibrium similarly extends communication equilibrium for incomplete information games. I explore the properties of these solutions and establish an equivalence between a subset of subcommunication equilibria and Myerson's quasi-principals' equilibria. I characterize an upper bound on expected turnout supported by subcorrelated equilibrium in the turnout game.

Chapter 4, co-authored with Thomas Palfrey, reports a new study of the effect of communication on voter turnout using a laboratory experiment. Before voting occurs, subjects may engage in various kinds of pre-play communication through computers. We study three communication treatments: No Communication, a control; Public Communication, where voters exchange public messages with all other voters, and Party Communication, where messages are exchanged only within one's own party. Our results point to a strong interaction effect between the form of communication and the voting cost. With a low voting cost, party communication increases turnout, while public communication decreases turnout. The data are consistent with correlated equilibrium play. With a high voting cost, public communication increases turnout. With communication, we find essentially no support for the standard Nash equilibrium turnout predictions.

A dor no corpo : identidade , gênero e sociabilidade em festas BDSM no Rio de Janeiro

Esta dissertação é uma etnografia realizada em três festas fetichistas/sadomasoquistas (autodenominadas BDSM), abertas ao público em geral, que acontecem na cidade do Rio de Janeiro. Meu objetivo foi investigar este tipo de sociabilidade, tendo como foco dois importantes temas das Ciências Sociais: festas e sexualidade. A revisão teórica e a análise do material de campo buscam o diálogo com estes temas através de uma reflexão sobre identidade e gênero.

O divisor de águas da política imperial: D. Pedro II, a conciliação e o Marquês de Paraná (1853-1856)

A Conciliação política foi um tema muito altercado no meado do Oitocentos no Segundo Reinado brasileiro. Este debate fora intensamente travado entre os principais partidos imperiais, Liberal e Conservador, que se alternavam no poder ao longo de quase 50 anos de comando do imperador D. Pedro II. Sobre seu governo, considerado por Joaquim Nabuco como a Grande Era Brasileira, é que este autor legou à historiografia posterior a sua obra máxima: Um Estadista do Império. Nossa dissertação parte da seguinte premissa: D. Pedro II no desejo de reinar, governar e administrar, acima dos partidos, encetou o seu Pensamento Augusto, isto é, a Conciliação. Os liberais acusavam a Conciliação de esvaziar suas propostas ao serem implementadas pelos conservadores. Estes que se encontravam no poder desde 1848, liderados pelos saquaremas, rechaçaram completamente tal ideia, pois entendiam que esta política patrocinada pela Coroa poderia enfraquecer seu partido. O Receio virou realidade, mediante algumas das medidas tomadas pelo Gabinete, pois para tal empreendimento, de compor um ministério com políticos liberais e conservadores, a Coroa contou com Honório Hermeto Carneiro Leão, Marquês de Paraná, para chefiar o primeiro gabinete conciliatório da história do Segundo Reinado enfrentando várias resistências, principalmente entre os referidos saquaremas. O sucesso do gabinete creditou-se à força, tato e prudência do Marquês e, principalmente, ao pensamento do Imperador. A partir daí a história política do Segundo Reinado tomou novas feições.

O segundo tempo do regime internacional dos investimentos: a nova geração de tratados e a prevenção de controvérsias investidor-Estado

No contexto de avanço da globalização, o Investimento Estrangeiro Direto (IED) mostra-se como um dos principais veículos para a inserção internacional dos países. Como os objetivos das empresas transnacionais e dos Estados hospedeiros não são os mesmos, há a necessidade de adoção de políticas que levem à convergência. No plano legal, observou-se nas últimas décadas a consolidação do regime internacional dos investimentos, com o crescimento exponencial do número de tratados de investimento e de arbitragens investidor-Estado fundadas nos mesmos. Mas há insatisfações de parte a parte com o sistema. Por um lado, os países tentam limitar o ativismo dos árbitros mediante a revisão de seus tratados. Por outro, tanto os investidores como os Estados começam a perceber que não há vencedores reais na arbitragem, dadas as suas diversas deficiências. Nomeadamente: custos elevados, longa duração, incoerência nas decisões e desgaste para as relações investidor-Estado no longo prazo. Nesse diapasão, surgem propostas de alternativas. Pensadores do sistema, valendo-se do Planejamento de Sistemas de Disputas, têm desenvolvido Políticas de Prevenção de Controvérsias. Tais políticas fundamentam-se nas dinâmicas de busca de soluções baseadas em interesses contrapostas às baseadas na força e nos direitos seguindo processos de administração precoce de conflitos. Diversos países, em diferentes níveis de desenvolvimento, têm tido êxito na implementação dessas políticas. A difusão das melhores práticas, movimento apoiado por organizações internacionais, oferece oportunidades para a melhora da governança, através da promoção de maior coerência e coordenação nas ações do Estado, da transparência e do império da lei. O tema é de interesse para o Brasil, país que, diferentemente dos demais, nunca ratificou um único tratado de investimento. Isso porque já surgem vozes na indústria clamando por uma mudança de posição, diante da emergência do país também como um exportador de capital. Caso tal inflexão se confirme, o Brasil tem a oportunidade de tomar partido das melhores experiências internacionais, usando tais tratados como instrumentos na sua estratégia de desenvolvimento.