Data-driven estimates of the number of clusters in multivariate time series

An important problem in unsupervised data clustering is how to determine the number of clusters. Here we investigate how this can be achieved in an automated way by using interrelation matrices of multivariate time series. Two nonparametric and purely data driven algorithms are expounded and compared. The first exploits the eigenvalue spectra of surrogate data, while the second employs the eigenvector components of the interrelation matrix. Compared to the first algorithm, the second approach is computationally faster and not limited to linear interrelation measures.

[Lung transplantation in chronic obstructive lung diseases]

Lung transplantation (uni- or bilateral) is an accepted treatment option for patients with end-stage chronic obstructive pulmonary disease. Pulmonary function improves significantly and 5-year-actuarial survival is more than 70% at acceptable early mortality rates. Careful evaluation of risks and benefits in necessary because of the known donor-organ shortage and the risks of life-long immunosuppressive treatment. The bronchiolitis obliterans syndrome is still a nonsolved problem in the long-term course after LTx and it can influence late graft function and patient survival.

Identification of prognostic factors for chronicity in patients with low back pain: a review of screening instruments

Low back pain (LBP) is currently the most prevalent and costly musculoskeletal problem in modern societies. Screening instruments for the identification of prognostic factors in LBP may help to identify patients with an unfavourable outcome. In this systematic review screening instruments published between 1970 and 2007 were identified by a literature search. Nine different instruments were analysed and their different items grouped into ten structures. Finally, the predictive effectiveness of these structures was examined for the dependent variables including "work status", "functional limitation", and "pain". The strongest predictors for "work status" were psychosocial and occupational structures, whereas for "functional limitation" and "pain" psychological structures were dominating. Psychological and occupational factors show a high reliability for the prognosis of patients with LBP. Screening instruments for the identification of prognostic factors in patients with LBP should include these factors as a minimum core set.

C-Port Flex-A-assisted automated anastomosis for high-flow extracranial-intracranial bypass surgery in patients with symptomatic carotid artery occlusion: a feasibility study. Clinical article

OBJECT: Preliminary experience with the C-Port Flex-A Anastomosis System (Cardica, Inc.) to enable rapid automated anastomosis has been reported in coronary artery bypass surgery. The goal of the current study was to define the feasibility and safety of this method for high-flow extracranial-intracranial (EC-IC) bypass surgery in a clinical series. METHODS: In a prospective study design, patients with symptomatic carotid artery (CA) occlusion were selected for C-Port-assisted high-flow EC-IC bypass surgery if they met the following criteria: 1) transient or moderate permanent symptoms of focal ischemia; 2) CA occlusion; 3) hemodynamic instability; and 4) had provided informed consent. Bypasses were done using a radial artery graft that was proximally anastomosed to the superficial temporal artery trunk, the cervical external, or common CA. All distal cerebral anastomoses were performed on M2 branches using the C-Port Flex-A system. RESULTS: Within 6 months, 10 patients were enrolled in the study. The distal automated anastomosis could be accomplished in all patients; the median temporary occlusion time was 16.6+/-3.4 minutes. Intraoperative digital subtraction angiography (DSA) confirmed good bypass function in 9 patients, and in 1 the anastomosis was classified as fair. There was 1 major perioperative complication that consisted of the creation of a pseudoaneurysm due to a hardware problem. In all but 1 case the bypass was shown to be patent on DSA after 7 days; furthermore, in 1 patient a late occlusion developed due to vasospasm after a sylvian hemorrhage. One-week follow-up DSA revealed transient asymptomatic extracranial spasm of the donor artery and the radial artery graft in 1 case. Two patients developed a limited zone of infarction on CT scanning during the follow-up course. CONCLUSIONS: In patients with symptomatic CA occlusion, C-Port Flex-A-assisted high-flow EC-IC bypass surgery is a technically feasible procedure. The system needs further modification to achieve a faster and safer anastomosis to enable a conclusive comparison with standard and laser-assisted methods for high-flow bypass surgery.

Better conduct of clinical trials: the control group in critical care trials

OBJECTIVE: To review trial design issues related to control groups. DESIGN: Review of the literature with specific reference to critical care trials. MAIN RESULTS AND CONCLUSIONS: Performing randomized controlled trials in the critical care setting presents specific problems: studies include patients with rapidly lethal conditions, the majority of intensive care patients suffer from syndromes rather than from well-definable diseases, the severity of such syndromes cannot be precisely assessed, and the treatment consists of interacting therapies. Interactions between physiology, pathophysiology, and therapies are at best marginally understood and may have a major impact on study design and interpretation of results. Selection of the right control group is crucial for the interpretation and clinical implementation of results. Studies comparing new interventions with current ones or different levels of current treatments have the problem of the necessity of defining "usual care." Usual care controls without any constraints typically include substantial heterogeneity. Constraints in the usual therapy may help to reduce some variation. Inclusion of unrestricted usual care groups may help to enhance safety. Practice misalignment is a novel problem in which patients receive a treatment that is the direct opposite of usual care, and occurs when fixed-dose interventions are used in situations where care is normally titrated. Practice misalignment should be considered in the design and interpretation of studies on titrated therapies.

Glycyrrhetinic acid food supplementation lowers serum potassium concentration in chronic hemodialysis patients

Hyperkalemia is a common life-threatening problem in hemodialysis patients. Because glycyrrhetinic acid (GA) inhibits the enzyme 11beta-hydroxy-steroid dehydrogenase II and thereby increases cortisol availability to the colonic mineralocorticoid receptor, it has the potential to lower serum potassium concentrations. To test this, 10 patients in a 6 month prospective, double-blind, placebo-controlled crossover study were given cookies or bread rolls supplemented with glycyrrhetinic acid or placebo. Twenty-four-hour blood pressure measurements were performed at baseline and week 6 and 12 of each treatment period. The ratio of plasma cortisol/cortisone was significantly increased in all patients on GA as compared to baseline or placebo, indicating appropriate enzyme inhibition. Nine of the 10 patients had a persistent decrease in predialysis serum potassium concentration. On GA, mean predialysis serum potassium was significantly lower than at baseline or on placebo. On placebo, serum potassium was significantly elevated above the upper limit of normal in 76% compared to 30% of measurements during GA treatment. Furthermore, on this treatment the frequency of severe hyperkalemia significantly decreased from 9% to 0.6%. No differences were found in parameters reflecting sodium retention. Although these studies show that prolonged GA supplementation persistently lowers serum potassium in dialysis patients, a long-term toxicity study will be mandatory before we recommend the routine use of this treatment.

Color polymorphism and intrasexual competition in assemblages of cichlid fish

The origin and maintenance of phenotypic polymorphisms is a classical problem in evolutionary ecology. Aggressive male-male competition can be a source of negative frequency-dependent selection stabilizing phenotypic polymorphisms when aggression is biased toward the own morph. We studied experimental assemblages of red and blue color morphs of the Lake Victoria cichlid fish Pundamilia. Aggression was investigated in mixed-color and single-color assemblages. We found that aggression was indeed biased toward males of the same color, which could in theory reduce aggression levels in mixed-color assemblages and promote coexistence. However, previous studies showed high aggression levels in red and dominance of red over blue males in dyadic interactions, which could hinder coexistence. We found that coexistence in mixed-color assemblages reduced the level of aggression in red males but not in blue males. Red and blue males were equally dominant in mixed-color assemblages, suggesting that predictions derived from dyadic interactions may not be valid for an assemblage situation. The results are consistent with field data: the geographic range of red is nested within that of blue, suggesting that red cannot displace blue. Our study suggests that male-male competition may be a significant force for maintaining phenotypic diversity.

Diseases in neonatal foals. Part 1: the 30 day incidence of disease and the effect of prophylactic antimicrobial drug treatment during the first three days post partum

REASONS FOR PERFORMING STUDY: Neonatal diseases have been grouped and analysed but up-to-date statistically significant information about the incidence and prevalence of diseases in foals is limited. Since the 1950s it has been a common management practice to administer a 3 day course of antimicrobial drugs to neonatal foals. This was shown to significantly reduce the incidence of infections (Platt 1977). Since then management practices have improved and it is widely believed that prophylactic antimicrobial drugs are no longer necessary in foal rearing. OBJECTIVES: To determine the 30 day incidences or prevalences (depending on case definition) of various diseases and conditions in the neonatal foal and ascertain the influence of a prophylactic 3 day treatment on the frequency of infections. METHODS: The population consisted of Thoroughbred foals born on stud farms in the Newmarket (UK) area in 2005 (n = 1031). Depending on the stud farm's practice in the use of prophylactic antimicrobial drugs, 2 groups of newborn foals (treated and untreated) were identified and followed for 30 days. RESULTS: The 30 day incidences of infectious diseases under study were between 0.2% (osteomyelitis) and 5.85% (systemic disease with diarrhoea). The overall incidence for 'total infectious diseases' was 8.27%. The most commonly observed noninfectious condition was limb deformities (12.11% of all foals). There was no significant difference in the incidence of infectious diseases between the 2 groups. CONCLUSION: Infectious diseases are still an important problem in neonatal foals requiring further investigation as to which factors other than antimicrobial prophylaxis are relevant for disease prevention. POTENTIAL RELEVANCE: The results provide an up-to-date overview about the frequencies of various neonatal foal diseases. They do not support the traditional prophylactic use of antimicrobials to prevent infectious diseases in healthy newborn foals. However, it should be noted that this study was not a randomised controlled trial and therefore does not provide the strongest possible evidence for this conclusion.

[Occurrence of Clostridium perfringens type A and type C in piglets of the Swiss swine population]

Necrotizing enteritis (NE) of newborn piglets still represents an economical problem in Swiss pig breeding and production. The aim of our study was to identify risk factors for NE and evaluate the prevalence of C. perfringens with the toxingenes cpb and cpb2 in Swiss pig breeding farms. The prevalence of theses C. perfringens was investigated using fecal swabs followed by bacteriological culturing and genotyping. Close proximity to other breeding farms and large herd sizes were shown to predispose to NE. C. perfringens type C, carrying the genes cpa, cpb and cpb2 were frequently identified in herds with acute outbreaks of NE. Farms not affected by NE or those using prophylactic vaccination against NE were predominantly positive for C. perfringens type A strains with cpb2 and showed much lower prevalence of C. perfringens type C, compared to acutely affected herds. Our results demonstrate that C. perfringens type A strains with cpb2 are not associated with NE. Besides typical necropsy finding, only the identification of cpb can be used for the diagnosis of NE in affected herds.

The Car Resequencing Problem with Pull-Off Tables

The car sequencing problem determines sequences of different car models launched down a mixed-model assembly line. To avoid work overloads of workforce, car sequencing restricts the maximum occurrence of labor-intensive options, e.g., a sunroof, by applying sequencing rules. We consider this problem in a resequencing context, where a given number of buffers (denoted as pull-off tables) is available for rearranging a stirred sequence. The problem is formalized and suited solution procedures are developed. A lower bound and a dominance rule are introduced which both reduce the running time of our graph approach. Finally, a real-world resequencing setting is investigated.

Prophylactic and therapeutic efficacy of nitazoxanide against Cryptosporidium parvum in experimentally challenged neonatal calves

Diarrhoea caused by Cryptosporidium parvum is a major problem in calves younger than 4 weeks of age. To date only a few compounds have been approved for prophylactic and none for therapeutic use. Nitazoxanide (NTZ) has proven its efficacy in vitro against C. parvum and is approved by FDA for the treatment of human cryptosporidiosis. In a first experimental study, 3 uninfected calves were treated with NTZ and pharmacokinetics was followed through blood samples. Serum samples of uninfected treated calves contained both NTZ metabolites (tizoxanide and tizoxanide glucuronide) and oral administration at 12 h intervals was considered as optimal. Three groups of three calves (1-3 days old) were then each inoculated with 1x10(7) oocysts of C. parvum (cattle genotype): the prophylactic group received 15 mg/kg body weight NTZ twice daily orally in milk from 1 day before to 8 days postinoculation (dpi). The therapeutic group received the same dosage of NTZ for 10 days from the appearance of diarrhoea (between 1 and 5 dpi). The control group was left untreated. All calves were monitored daily from day -1 to 28 dpi and faecal samples were collected for evaluation of consistency and for determination of oocyst numbers per gram (OPG) of faeces. Diarrhoea was observed in all calves within the first week. Neither prophylactic nor therapeutic use of NTZ improved the clinical appearance and calves of the therapeutic showed a longer diarrheic episode (p<0.05) with strong altered faecal consistency compared to the untreated control group. The number of days with oocyst excretion did not differ significantly between the groups. In 5 out of 6 infected and treated calves oocyst excretion stopped only after discontinuation of treatment. In the prophylactic and in the control group mean values of the sum of the daily OPG per calf (8.5x10(6) and 8.0x10(6), respectively) and of the mean daily number of OPG (0.3x10(6) and 0.3x10(6), respectively) were similar, while the therapeutic group showed significantly lower values (1.9x10(6) and 0.06x10(6), respectively, p<0.05). However oocyst determinations in this group may have been altered by the severe diarrhoea, diluting oocyst densities in the analysed faecal samples. In conclusion, these preliminary results about the first prophylactic and therapeutic use of NTZ in calves did not show the expected positive effect on the course of the Cryptosporidium-infection, neither on reducing the clinical severity, nor on oocyst excretion.

Non-ignorable loss to follow-up: correcting mortality estimates based on additional outcome ascertainment

Loss to follow-up (LTFU) is a common problem in many epidemiological studies. In antiretroviral treatment (ART) programs for patients with human immunodeficiency virus (HIV), mortality estimates can be biased if the LTFU mechanism is non-ignorable, that is, mortality differs between lost and retained patients. In this setting, routine procedures for handling missing data may lead to biased estimates. To appropriately deal with non-ignorable LTFU, explicit modeling of the missing data mechanism is needed. This can be based on additional outcome ascertainment for a sample of patients LTFU, for example, through linkage to national registries or through survey-based methods. In this paper, we demonstrate how this additional information can be used to construct estimators based on inverse probability weights (IPW) or multiple imputation. We use simulations to contrast the performance of the proposed estimators with methods widely used in HIV cohort research for dealing with missing data. The practical implications of our approach are illustrated using South African ART data, which are partially linkable to South African national vital registration data. Our results demonstrate that while IPWs and proper imputation procedures can be easily constructed from additional outcome ascertainment to obtain valid overall estimates, neglecting non-ignorable LTFU can result in substantial bias. We believe the proposed estimators are readily applicable to a growing number of studies where LTFU is appreciable, but additional outcome data are available through linkage or surveys of patients LTFU. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Obesity and overweight as a risk factor for pneumonia in polytrauma patients: a retrospective cohort study

BACKGROUND Obesity is a growing problem in western societies. The aim of this retrospective cohort study was to determine the association between the overweight and obese polytrauma patients and pneumonia after injury. METHODS A total of 628 patients with an Injury Severity Score (ISS) of 16 or greater and 16 years or older were included in this retrospective study. The sample was subdivided into three groups as follows: body mass index (BMI) of less than 25 kg/m2; BMI of 25 kg/m2 to 30 kg/m2; and BMI more than 30 kg/m2. The Murray score was assessed at admission and at its maximum during hospitalization to determine pulmonary problems. Pneumonia was defined as bacteriologically positive sputum with appropriate radiologic and laboratory changes (C-reactive protein and interleukin 6). Data are given as mean ± SEM. One-way analysis of variance and the Kruskal-Wallis test were used for the analyses, and the significance level was set at p < 0.05; Bonferroni-Dunn test was performed as post hoc analysis. RESULTS The Abbreviated Injury Scale (AIS) score for the thorax was 3.2 ± 0.1 in the group with a BMI of less than 25 kg/m2, 3.3 ± 0.1 in the group with a BMI of 25 kg/m2 to 30 kg/m2, and 2.8 ± 0.2 in the group with BMI of more than 30 kg/m2 (p = 0.044). The Murray score at admission was elevated with increasing BMI (0.8 ± 0.8 for BMI < 25 kg/m2, 0.9 ± 0.9 for BMI 25–30 kg/m2, and 1.0 ± 0.8 for BMI > 30 kg/m2; p = 0.137); the maximum Murray score during hospitalization revealed significant differences (1.2 ± 0.9 for BMI < 25 kg/m2, 1.6 ± 1.0 for BMI 25–30 kg/m2, and 1.5 ± 0.9 for BMI > 30 kg/m2; p < 0.001). The incidence of pneumonia also increased with increasing BMI (1.6% for BMI < 25 kg/m2, 2.0% for BMI 25–30 kg/m2, and 3.1% for BMI > 30 kg/m2; p = 0.044). CONCLUSION Obesity leads to an increased incidence of pneumonia in a polytrauma situation. LEVEL OF EVIDENCE Prognostic/epidemiologic study, level IV.

The influence of body mass index on injury pattern in polytrauma: thorax as the main source of complications

Background: Obesity is a growing problem in industrial nations. The aim of this study was to determine the relationship between the body mass index (BMI) and the pattern of injury after polytrauma. Methods: This retrospective study included 651 patients with an injury severity score (ISS) ≥16 and aged ≥16 years who were subdivided into three groups: BMI < 25 kg/m2, BMI 25–30 kg/m2, and BMI > 30 kg/m2. The Abbreviated Injury Scale (AIS) was used to quantify the injuries in the different anatomical regions. The Murray score was assessed at admission and at its maximum during hospitalization to evaluate pulmonary problems. Data are presented as means ± standard errors of the means. One way analysis of variance, χ2 test and Kruskal-Wallis test were used for the analyses and the significance level was set at p < 0.05. Results: The AIS of the thorax was 3.2 ± 0.1 in the BMI < 25 kg/m2 group, 3.3 ± 0.1 in the BMI 25–30 kg/m2 group, and 2.8 ± 0.2 in the BMI > 30 kg/m2 group; p < 0.05. The Murray score at admission increased significantly with increasing BMI (0.8 ± 0.8 for BMI < 25 kg/m2, 0.9 ± 0.9 for BMI 25–30 kg/m2, and 1.0 ± 0.8 for BMI > 30 kg/m2; p < 0.05) as was the maximum Murray score during hospitalization (1.2 ± 0.9 for BMI < 25 kg/m2, 1.6 ± 1.0 for BMI 25–30 kg/m2, and 1.5 ± 0.9 for BMI > 30 kg/m2; p < 0.001). The number of ventilator days was also elevated significantly with increasing BMI (5.9 ± 0.4 for BMI < 25 kg/m2, 7.7 ± 0.8 for BMI 25–30 kg/m2, and 7.9 ± 1.6 for BMI > 30 kg/m2; p < 0.05). Conclusion: Overweight and obesity lead to a higher incidence of thoracic trauma in a polytrauma situation and may additionally handicap ventilation in an obstructive manner.