PERFORMANCE ANALYSIS OF A TACTICAL ASSET ALLOCATION – Evidence from the Black–Litterman model based fixed income portfolio

Over time the demand for quantitative portfolio management has increased among financial institutions but there is still a lack of practical tools. In 2008 EDHEC Risk and Asset Management Research Centre conducted a survey of European investment practices. It revealed that the majority of asset or fund management companies, pension funds and institutional investors do not use more sophisticated models to compensate the flaws of the Markowitz mean-variance portfolio optimization. Furthermore, tactical asset allocation managers employ a variety of methods to estimate return and risk of assets, but also need sophisticated portfolio management models to outperform their benchmarks. Recent development in portfolio management suggests that new innovations are slowly gaining ground, but still need to be studied carefully. This thesis tries to provide a practical tactical asset allocation (TAA) application to the Black–Litterman (B–L) approach and unbiased evaluation of B–L models’ qualities. Mean-variance framework, issues related to asset allocation decisions and return forecasting are examined carefully to uncover issues effecting active portfolio management. European fixed income data is employed in an empirical study that tries to reveal whether a B–L model based TAA portfolio is able outperform its strategic benchmark. The tactical asset allocation utilizes Vector Autoregressive (VAR) model to create return forecasts from lagged values of asset classes as well as economic variables. Sample data (31.12.1999–31.12.2012) is divided into two. In-sample data is used for calibrating a strategic portfolio and the out-of-sample period is for testing the tactical portfolio against the strategic benchmark. Results show that B–L model based tactical asset allocation outperforms the benchmark portfolio in terms of risk-adjusted return and mean excess return. The VAR-model is able to pick up the change in investor sentiment and the B–L model adjusts portfolio weights in a controlled manner. TAA portfolio shows promise especially in moderately shifting allocation to more risky assets while market is turning bullish, but without overweighting investments with high beta. Based on findings in thesis, Black–Litterman model offers a good platform for active asset managers to quantify their views on investments and implement their strategies. B–L model shows potential and offers interesting research avenues. However, success of tactical asset allocation is still highly dependent on the quality of input estimates.

Economic capital allocation

For my Licentiate thesis, I conducted research on risk measures. Continuing with this research, I now focus on capital allocation. In the proportional capital allocation principle, the choice of risk measure plays a very important part. In the chapters Introduction and Basic concepts, we introduce three definitions of economic capital, discuss the purpose of capital allocation, give different viewpoints of capital allocation and present an overview of relevant literature. Risk measures are defined and the concept of coherent risk measure is introduced. Examples of important risk measures are given, e. g., Value at Risk (VaR), Tail Value at Risk (TVaR). We also discuss the implications of dependence and review some important distributions. In the following chapter on Capital allocation we introduce different principles for allocating capital. We prefer to work with the proportional allocation method. In the following chapter, Capital allocation based on tails, we focus on insurance business lines with heavy-tailed loss distribution. To emphasize capital allocation based on tails, we define the following risk measures: Conditional Expectation, Upper Tail Covariance and Tail Covariance Premium Adjusted (TCPA). In the final chapter, called Illustrative case study, we simulate two sets of data with five insurance business lines using Normal copulas and Cauchy copulas. The proportional capital allocation is calculated using TCPA as risk measure. It is compared with the result when VaR is used as risk measure and with covariance capital allocation. In this thesis, it is emphasized that no single allocation principle is perfect for all purposes. When focusing on the tail of losses, the allocation based on TCPA is a good one, since TCPA in a sense includes features of TVaR and Tail covariance.

Benefits and challenges of Enterprise Resource Planning for Pakistani SMEs

Enterprise resource planning (ERP) software is used to combine all the functions happening inside the organization with the help of one software. All the data is centralized which makes it easy to manage information for all participants. The literature on ERP is studied thoroughly the whole process of adoption till the implementation and final evaluations. But studies that focus on small and medium sized enterprises are limited in number when compared to the large scale enterprises. In case of Pakistan, research is very limited. In this thesis, the author tries to analyze the current status of SMEs usage of ERP system. The benefits obtained and challenges faced by SMEs of Pakistan are studied. Framework presented by Shang and Seddon (2000) is used to understand the benefits obtained by the SMEs in Pakistan. This is a comprehensive framework that classifies the benefits obtained by the ERP adoption, into five categories: operational benefits, managerial benefits, Strategic benefits, IT benefits, and Organizational benefits. The results show that SMEs of Pakistan are also getting many benefits after adoption of ERP. Most of the firms had implemented SAP software. Operational benefits were mentioned by all the firms. The most important benefits were report generation, quick access to critical information, better product and cost planning. Respondents also mentioned that they had reduced corruption as a result of ERP implementation. It is also an important benefit considering high corruption rate in Pakistan. Along with benefits, challenges faced by Pakistani SMEs included infrastructure problems like electricity, difficulties with integration of one module with other module, costs of adoption and lack of skilled ERP consultants. Further studies in this regard can be conducted on cloud based ERP which is fast growing all around the world.

Modernizing human resource management : the importance of values-based leadership in the Canadian federal public service /

Over the past several decades, many theories have been advanced as to why efforts to reform the public service have met with only limited success. Clearly, the role of leadership with respect to reform must be examined, since successful organizational leaders should be extremely accomplished in the promotion and protection of the values that underlie decision-making. The issue of effective leadership is particularly significant for the future of the public service of Canada. Large numbers of public servants in the executive ranks are due to retire within the next five years. Given their central role, it is vital that there be enough dedicated and committed public servants to staff future vacancies. It is also essential that future public service leaders possess the competencies and values associated with a world-class public service and, a new type of public organization. Related to this point is the importance of people-management skills. People management in the public service is an issue that has historically faced - and will continue to face - major challenges with respect to recruiting and retaining the leaders it requires for its continued success. It is imperative that the public service not only be revitalized and be seen as an employer of choice, but also that the process by which it accomplishes this goal - the practice of human resource management - be modernized. To achieve the flexibility needed to remain effective, the public service requires the kind ofleadership that supports new public service values such as innovation and which emphasizes a "people- first" approach. This thesis examines the kind of public service leadership needed to modernize the human resource management regime in the federal public service. A historical examination of public service values is presented to help determine the values that are important for public service leaders with respect to modernizing human resource management. Since replenishing the 2 ranks of public service leaders is crucial to ensure the quality of service to Canadians, leadership that supports career planning will be a major focus of this paper. In addition, this thesis demonstrates that while traditional public service values continue to endure, innovative leaders must effectively reconcile new public service values with traditional values in order to increase the possibilities for successful reform as well as achieve business objectives. Much of the thesis is devoted to explaining the crucial role of post-bureaucratic leadership to successful reform. One of the major findings of the thesis is that leaders who demonstrate a blending of new public service values and traditional values are critical to creating effective employment relationships, which are key to modernizing human resource management in the federal public service. It will be apparent that public service leaders must ensure that an appropriate accountability framework is in place before embarking on reform. However, leaders who support new public service values such as innovation and empowerment and who emphasize the importance of people are essential to successful reform.

Exploring the experiences of parents with children who have communication delays, as a population at risk for the development of behavioural concerns

Existing research identifies preschoolers with communication delays as a population at risk for the development of behavioural concerns. This risk increases when additional environmental factors such as parental stress and family conflict are also present. Research has also shown that behavioural concerns can be stable over time when they develop early. However, early intervention has been shown to be effective in addressing these concerns. The effectiveness of early intervention in addressing both child and family outcomes increases when interventions are delivered in a family-centred approach. This research project made use of data related to child behaviour and parenting, gathered through the Family Resource Project which explored the parenting experiences and resource access and allocation decisions of families who have preschool children with and without communication delays. Cluster analysis was used to explore whether there were identifiable clusters of children and families within each sample. Interview data fi"om each identified family cluster was then explored further, to identify how parents described their child's behaviour and their experience of parenting. Results show that, within this sample, parents of preschoolers with communication delays described their child's behaviour and their experience of parenting differently than did parents of children without communication delays. Results also showed that within this sample parents experiencing parental stress and/or family conflict described their child's behaviour and their experience of parenting differently than did parents from other clusters. Results suggest support for early intervention and the use of family-centred intervention, particularly for families of children with communication delays.

An exploration of intergenerational exchanges between grandparents and their older grandcildren

Changes within the family unit have resulted in changes in interactions between grandparents and older grandchildren. Existing research indicates that these relationships can result in positive outcomes. A relevant task for researchers is to continue to explore th~se intergenerational relationships. This qualitative phenomenological study explores the question: What functional patterns exist when grandparents interact with older grandchildren? Six grandparent-older grandchild pairs agreed to be involved. Kennedy's (1992) formulation of grandparent-older grandchild activity clusters was reviewed and revised. Activities were clustered related to socialization, companionship, support, entertainment, and education. Findings unique to this study indicate that shared activities were mutually chosen with consideration of activity tolerance, and were consistently evaluated as enjoyable. Partners were chosen because of a comfortable relationship established through frequent past and present interactions, and not because of family lineage preferences. Both grandparents and older grandchildren stated a desire to have a generation peer share activities with them. Exploration of dimension concepts for the "McMaster Model of Family Functioning" indicated that these relationships have potential to contribute to healthy family functioning. The implications for practice, theory development and further research are suggested.

Using genetic algorithms for the single allocation hub location problem

Hub location problem is an NP-hard problem that frequently arises in the design of transportation and distribution systems, postal delivery networks, and airline passenger flow. This work focuses on the Single Allocation Hub Location Problem (SAHLP). Genetic Algorithms (GAs) for the capacitated and uncapacitated variants of the SAHLP based on new chromosome representations and crossover operators are explored. The GAs is tested on two well-known sets of real-world problems with up to 200 nodes. The obtained results are very promising. For most of the test problems the GA obtains improved or best-known solutions and the computational time remains low. The proposed GAs can easily be extended to other variants of location problems arising in network design planning in transportation systems.

Human Resource Training and National Sport Organization Managers: Examining the Impact of Training on Individual and Organizational Performance

Within sport, a tremendous amount of effort is committed to the on-the-field performance of athletes and coaches, neglecting the off-the-field performance and development of sport managers. This study examines the impact of human resource training on the performance of five Canadian national sport organizations (NSO) and their managers (N=22). Data were collected on three outcome variables (learning, individual performance, organizational performance) and three mediating variables (motivation to transfer, training design, organizational climate) at three time measures (pre-training, post-training1, post-training2). Results indicate that training improves the learning and individual performance of sport managers, as well as the organizational performance of NSOs. Varying relationships were found at each of the three time measures, demonstrating that a progression to training-related performance change exists, while providing support for three levels of analysis (individual, organizational, systemic). Implications and future research directions are discussed and highlight the need for on-going training opportunities for Canadian sport managers.