Annual stream flow variability over the western United States [abstract]

EXTRACT (SEE PDF FOR FULL ABSTRACT): The variability of mean annual streamflow over the western United States is described and related to indices of large scale atmospheric circulation over the Pacific Ocean and western U.S. Principal component analysis reveal [sic] four statistically significant modes of streamflow variability across the region.

400 years of precipitation variability in central and southern California reconstructed from tree-rings [abstract]

EXTRACT (SEE PDF FOR FULL ABSTRACT): Precipitation variability at 31 stations hanging from San Diego to San Francisco and from the coast to the Sierras was characterized ...

Specificity of reflex adaptation for task-relevant variability.

The motor system responds to perturbations with reflexes, such as the vestibulo-ocular reflex or stretch reflex, whose gains adapt in response to novel and fixed changes in the environment, such as magnifying spectacles or standing on a tilting platform. Here we demonstrate a reflex response to shifts in the hand's visual location during reaching, which occurs before the onset of voluntary reaction time, and investigate how its magnitude depends on statistical properties of the environment. We examine the change in reflex response to two different distributions of visuomotor discrepancies, both of which have zero mean and equal variance across trials. Critically one distribution is task relevant and the other task irrelevant. The task-relevant discrepancies are maintained to the end of the movement, whereas the task-irrelevant discrepancies are transient such that no discrepancy exists at the end of the movement. The reflex magnitude was assessed using identical probe trials under both distributions. We find opposite directions of adaptation of the reflex response under these two distributions, with increased reflex magnitudes for task-relevant variability and decreased reflex magnitudes for task-irrelevant variability. This demonstrates modulation of reflex magnitudes in the absence of a fixed change in the environment, and shows that reflexes are sensitive to the statistics of tasks with modulation depending on whether the variability is task relevant or task irrelevant.

Application of an acoustic–trawl survey design to improve estimates of rockfish biomass

Biomass estimates of several species of Alaskan rockfishes exhibit large interannual variations. Because rockfishes are long lived and relatively slow growing, large, short-term shifts in population abundance are not likely. We attribute the variations in biomass estimates to the high variability in the spatial distribution of rockfishes that is not well accounted for by the survey design currently used. We evaluated the performance of an experimental survey design, the Trawl and Acoustic Presence/Absence Survey (TAPAS), to reduce the variability in estimated biomass for Pacific ocean perch (Sebastes alutus). Analysis of archived acoustic backscatter data produced an acoustic threshold for delineating potential areas of high (“patch”) and low (“background”) catch per unit of effort (CPUE) in real time. In 2009, we conducted a 12-day TAPAS near Yakutat, Alaska. We completed 59 trawls at 19 patch stations and 40 background stations. The design performed well logistically, and Pacific ocean perch (POP) accounted for 55% of the 31 metric tons (t) of the catch from this survey. The resulting estimates of rockfish biomass were slightly less precise than estimates from simple random sampling. This difference in precision was due to the weak relationship of CPUE to mean volume backscattering and the relatively low variability of POP CPUE encountered. When the data were re-analyzed with a higher acoustic threshold than the one used in the field study, performance was slightly better with this revised design than with the original field design. The TAPAS design could be made more effective by establishing a stronger link between acoustic backscatter and CPUE and by deriving an acoustic threshold that allows better identification of backscatter as that from the target species.

Seasonal and interannual variation in juvenile salmonids and associated fish assemblage in open waters of the lower Columbia River estuary

The transition between freshwater and marine environments is associated with high mortality for juvenile anadromous salmonids, yet little is known about this critical period in many large rivers. To address this deficiency, we investigated the estuarine ecology of juvenile salmonids and their associated fish assemblage in open-water habitats of the lower Columbia River estuary during spring of 2007–10. For coho (Oncorhynchus kisutch), sockeye (O. nerka), chum (O. keta), and yearling (age 1.0) Chinook (O. tshawytscha) salmon, and steelhead (O. mykiss), we observed a consistent seasonal pattern characterized by extremely low abundances in mid-April, maximum abundances in May, and near absence by late June. Subyearling (age 0.0) Chinook salmon were most abundant in late June. Although we observed interannual variation in the presence, abundance, and size of juvenile salmonids, no single year was exceptional across all species-and-age classes. We estimated that >90% of juvenile Chinook and coho salmon and steelhead were of hatchery origin, a rate higher than previously reported. In contrast to juvenile salmonids, the abundance and composition of the greater estuarine fish assemblage, of which juvenile salmon were minor members, were extremely variable and likely responding to dynamic physical conditions in the estuary. Comparisons with studies conducted 3 decades earlier suggest striking changes in the estuarine fish assemblage—changes that have unknown but potentially important consequences for juvenile salmon in the Columbia River estuary.

Quantifying intrapopulation variability in stable isotope data for Spotted Seatrout (Cynoscion nebulosus)

Stable isotope (SI) values of carbon (δ13C) and nitrogen (δ15N) are useful for determining the trophic connectivity between species within an ecosystem, but interpretation of these data involves important assumptions about sources of intrapopulation variability. We compared intrapopulation variability in δ13C and δ15N for an estuarine omnivore, Spotted Seatrout (Cynoscion nebulosus), to test assumptions and assess the utility of SI analysis for delineation of the connectivity of this species with other species in estuarine food webs. Both δ13C and δ15N values showed patterns of enrichment in fish caught from coastal to offshore sites and as a function of fish size. Results for δ13C were consistent in liver and muscle tissue, but liver δ15N showed a negative bias when compared with muscle that increased with absolute δ15N value. Natural variability in both isotopes was 5–10 times higher than that observed in laboratory populations, indicating that environmentally driven intrapopulation variability is detectable particularly after individual bias is removed through sample pooling. These results corroborate the utility of SI analysis for examination of the position of Spotted Seatrout in an estuarine food web. On the basis of these results, we conclude that interpretation of SI data in fishes should account for measurable and ecologically relevant intrapopulation variability for each species and system on a case by case basis.

Spatial and temporal variability in the distribution and abundance of larval and juvenile fishes associated with pelagic Sargassum

A survey of the larval and juvenile fishes associated with the pelagic Sargassum habitat in the South Atlantic Bight and adjacent western Atlantic Ocean was conducted from July 1991 through March 1993. Fishes representing 104 taxonomic categories were identified, including reef fishes, coastal demersal, coastal pelagic, epipelagic and mesopelagic species. The most important families were Balistidae and Carangidae, each represented by 15 species. Species composition, species diversity and abundance varied both seasonally and regionally. Diversity was highest during spring through fall over the outer continental shelf and in the Gulf Stream. Abundance decreased from spring through winter and from the continental shelf into offshore waters. The numbers of fishes and fish biomass were found to be positively correlated with the wet weight of algae in most cases examined. The results of this study will be useful to fisheries managers assessing the potential impacts of commercial Sargassum harvesting in the region.

The Southeast Bering Sea Ecosystem: implications for marine resource management (Final Report: Southeast Bering Sea Carrying Capacity).

Southeast Bering Sea Carrying Capacity (SEBSCC, 1996–2002) was a NOAA Coastal Ocean Program project that investigated the marine ecosystem of the southeastern Bering Sea. SEBSCC was co-managed by the University of Alaska Fairbanks, NOAA Alaska Fisheries Science Center, and NOAA Pacific Marine Environmental Laboratory. Project goals were to understand the changing physical environment and its relationship to the biota of the region, to relate that understanding to natural variations in year-class strength of walleye pollock (Theragra chalcogramma), and to improve the flow of ecosystem information to fishery managers. In addition to SEBSCC, the Inner Front study (1997–2000), supported by the National Science Foundation (Prolonged Production and Trophic Transfer to Predators: Processes at the Inner Front of the S.E. Bering Sea), was active in the southeastern Bering Sea from 1997 to 1999. The SEBSCC and Inner Front studies were complementary. SEBSCC focused on the middle and outer shelf. Inner Front worked the middle and inner shelf. Collaboration between investigators in the two programs was strong, and the joint results yielded a substantially increased understanding of the regional ecosystem. SEBSCC focused on four central scientific issues: (1) How does climate variability influence the marine ecosystem of the Bering Sea? (2) What determines the timing, amount, and fate of primary and secondary production? (3) How do oceanographic conditions on the shelf influence distributions of fish and other species? (4) What limits the growth of fish populations on the eastern Bering Sea shelf? Underlying these broad questions was a narrower focus on walleye pollock, particularly a desire to understand ecological factors that affect year-class strength and the ability to predict the potential of a year class at the earliest possible time. The Inner Front program focused on the role of the structural front between the well-mixed waters of the coastal domain and the two-layer system of the middle domain. Of special interest was the potential for prolonged post-spring-bloom production at the front and its role in supporting upper trophic level organisms such as juvenile pollock and seabirds. Of concern to both programs was the role of interannual and longer-term variability in marine climates and their effects on the function of sub-arctic marine ecosystems and their ability to support upper trophic level organisms.

The potential consequences of climate variability and change on coastal areas and marine resources: report of the Coastal Areas and Marine Resources Sector Team, U.S. National Assessment of the Potential Consequences of Climate Variability and Change, U.S. Global Change Research Program

Coastal and marine ecosystems support diverse and important fisheries throughout the nation’s waters, hold vast storehouses of biological diversity, and provide unparalleled recreational opportunities. Some 53% of the total U.S. population live on the 17% of land in the coastal zone, and these areas become more crowded every year. Demands on coastal and marine resources are rapidly increasing, and as coastal areas become more developed, the vulnerability of human settlements to hurricanes, storm surges, and flooding events also increases. Coastal and marine environments are intrinsically linked to climate in many ways. The ocean is an important distributor of the planet’s heat, and this distribution could be strongly influenced by changes in global climate over the 21st century. Sea-level rise is projected to accelerate during the 21st century, with dramatic impacts in low-lying regions where subsidence and erosion problems already exist. Many other impacts of climate change on the oceans are difficult to project, such as the effects on ocean temperatures and precipitation patterns, although the potential consequences of various changes can be assessed to a degree. In other instances, research is demonstrating that global changes may already be significantly impacting marine ecosystems, such as the impact of increasing nitrogen on coastal waters and the direct effect of increasing carbon dioxide on coral reefs. Coastal erosion is already a widespread problem in much of the country and has significant impacts on undeveloped shorelines as well as on coastal development and infrastructure. Along the Pacific Coast, cycles of beach and cliff erosion have been linked to El Niño events that elevate average sea levels over the short term and alter storm tracks that affect erosion and wave damage along the coastline. These impacts will be exacerbated by long-term sea-level rise. Atlantic and Gulf coastlines are especially vulnerable to long-term sea-level rise as well as any increase in the frequency of storm surges or hurricanes. Most erosion events here are the result of storms and extreme events, and the slope of these areas is so gentle that a small rise in sea level produces a large inland shift of the shoreline. When buildings, roads and seawalls block this natural migration, the beaches and shorelines erode, threatening property and infrastructure as well as coastal ecosystems.

Characterization of Hypoxia: Topic I Report for the Integrated Assessment on Hypoxia in the Gulf of Mexico

Nutrient overenrichment from human activities is one of the major stresses affecting coastal ecosystems. There is increasing concern in many areas around the world that an oversupply of nutrients from multiple sources is having pervasive ecological effects on shallow coastal and estuarine areas. These effects include reduced light penetration, loss of aquatic habitat, harmfid algal blooms, a decrease in dissolved oxygen (or hypoxia), and impacts on living resources. The largest zone of oxygen-depleted coastal waters in the United States, and the entire western Atlantic Ocean, is found in the northern Gulf of Mexico on the Louisiana-Texas continental shelf. This zone is influenced by the freshwater discharge and nutrient flux of the Mississippi River system. This report describes the seasonal, interannual, and long-term variability in hypoxia in the northern Gulf of Mexico and its relationship to nutrient loading. It also documents the relative roles of natural and human-induced factors in determining the size and duration of the hypoxic zone.

Small-scale spatial and temporal variability in growth and mortality of fish larvae in the subtropical northcentral Gulf of Mexico: implications for assessing recruitment success

Extensive plankton collections were taken during seven September cruises (1990–93) along the inner continental shelf of the northcentral Gulf of Mexico (GOM). Despite the high productivity and availability of food during these cruises, significant small-scale spatial variability was found in larval growth rates for both Atlantic bumper (Chloroscombrus chrysurus, Carangidae) and vermilion snapper (Rhomboplites aurorubens, Lutjanidae). The observed variability in larval growth rates was not correlated with changes in water temperature or associated with conspicuous hydrographic features and suggested the existence of less-recognizable regions where conditions for growth vary. Cruise estimates of mortality coefficients (Z) for larval Atlantic bumper (n=32,241 larvae from six cruises) and vermilion snapper (n= 2581 larvae from four cruises) ranged from 0.20 to 0.37 and 0.19 to 0.29, respectively. Even in a subtropical climate like the GOM, where larval-stage durations may be as short as two weeks, observed variability in growth rates, particularly when combined with small changes in mortality rates, can cause order-of-magnitude differences in cumulative larval survival. To what extent the observed differences in growth rates at small spatial scales are fine-scale “noise” that ultimately is smoothed by larger-scale processes is not known. Future research is needed to further characterize the small-scale variability in growth rates of larvae, particularly with regard to microzooplankton patchiness and the temporal and spatial pattern of potential predators. Small-scale spatial variability in larval growth rates may in fact be the norm, and understanding the implications of this subtle mosaic may help us to better evaluate our ability to partition the causes of recruitment variability.