Back to square one: Identification issues in DSGE models

We investigate identifiability issues in DSGE models and their consequences for parameter estimation and model evaluation when the objective function measures the distance between estimated and model impulse responses. We show that observational equivalence, partial and weak identification problems are widespread, that they lead to biased estimates, unreliable t-statistics and may induce investigators to select false models. We examine whether different objective functions affect identification and study how small samples interact with parameters and shock identification. We provide diagnostics and tests to detect identification failures and apply them to a state-of-the-art model.

Interdisciplinary research for the analysis and risk assesment : the case of the municipality of Uspantan Guatemala

Short description of the proposed presentation * lees than 100 words This paper describes the interdisciplinary work done in Uspantán, Guatemala, a city vulnerable to natural hazards. We investigated local responses to landslides that happened in 2007 and 2010 and had a strong impact on the local community. We show a complete example of a systemic approach that incorporates physical, social and environmental aspects in order to understand risks. The objective of this work is to present the combination of social and geological data (mapping), and describe the methodology used for identification and assessment of risk. The article discusses both the limitations and methodological challenges encountered when conducting interdisciplinary research. Describe why it is important to present this topic at the Global Platform in less than 50 words This work shows the benefits of addressing risk in an interdisciplinary perspective, in particular how integrating social sciences can help identify new phenomena and natural hazards and assess risk. It gives a practical example of how one can integrate data from different fields. What is innovative about this presentation? * The use of mapping to combine qualitative and quantitative data. By coupling approaches, we could associate a hazard map with qualitative data gathered by interviews with the population. This map is an important document for the authorities. Indeed, it allows them to be aware of the most dangerous zones, the affected families and the places where it is most urgent to intervene.

Nest distribution and nesting habits of Xylocopa ordinaria Smith (Hymenoptera, Apidae) in a restinga area in the northern Rio de Janeiro State, Brazil

This paper aims to study the distribution of natural nests of Xylocopa ordinaria and characterize its nesting habits in the restinga of Grussai/Iquipari (RJ), supporting future studies on the pollinators management in the northern Rio de Janeiro state. The data obtained from Aug/2003 to Dec/2004, in an area of 11.6ha, were related to the nest distribution, substrate identification and dimensions, emergence, sex ratio, nest structure (n= 23 nests) and pollen content analysis of provisioning masses and feces. X. ordinaria nests were abundant and presented a clustered distribution. These bees do not present taxonomical affinity for nesting substrates, but preferences for wood availability and characteristics, being Pera glabrata the main substrate. X. ordinaria is a multivoltine species that tolerates co-specifics in their nests. These bees were generalist on their nectar and pollen consumption, but presented floral constancy while provisioning brood cells. These behaviors, activity along the year, flights throughout the day, and legitimate visits to flowers indicate the importance of X. ordinaria on the pollination of plants in the restinga.

Concepção de uma Estratégia de Geoconservação para Cabo Verde e sua Aplicação à Ilha de Santiago

A singularidade de certos registos geológicos impressos em rochas, as peculiaridades estruturais e dinâmicas dos diversos elementos dos geossistemas, a análise dos seus valores intrínsecos, bem como da sua vulnerabilidade e dos perigos de degradação que os podem afectar, entre outros parâmetros, são factores que concorrem para a necessidade de assegurar a conservação do património geológico. É neste contexto que surge a geoconservação que preconiza a gestão do património geológico com base num conjunto de medidas e acções para a identificação, manutenção ou recuperação do valor natural dos elementos da geodiversidade numa perspectiva de sustentabilidade dos recursos geológicos que integram a componente abiótica do sistema natural. A geoconservação, à escala internacional, tem um desenvolvimento irregular. Enquanto algumas regiões estão bastante avançadas, como na Europa, outras revelam ainda alguma inércia relativamente à implementação de iniciativas que se devem enquadrar no âmbito da conservação da Natureza e do ordenamento do território. Em África, são ainda pontuais os exemplos de geoconservação pelo que, este trabalho, pretende ser promotor de uma política de geoconservação neste continente. No presente trabalho, concebemos uma estratégia de geoconservação para Cabo Verde e aplicamo-la, a título de exemplo, à ilha de Santiago. A metodologia utilizada, baseada em critérios internacionalmente reconhecidos e aceites para o inventário do património geológico de valor científico, consiste no estabelecimento de “categorias temáticas” que representam as características e evolução geológica do arquipélago. Foram propostas nove categorias para Cabo Verde e, para cada uma delas, foram inventariados diversos locais de interesse, dos quais 40 foram propostos como geossítios na ilha de Santiago. Com base nestes geossítios, propuseram-se linhas metodológicas para as etapas subsequentes que integram uma estratégia de geoconservação, nomeadamente, a quantificação, classificação, conservação, valorização, divulgação e monitorização de geossítios. Embora a conservação da geodiversidade esteja prevista, embora de forma pouco clara, na actual legislação ambiental cabo-verdiana, a execução desta estratégia de geoconservação poderá representar um dos primeiros passos para a definição, caracterização e valorização, sistemáticas, do património geológico nacional e contribuir para a implementação de uma política de sustentabilidade ambiental para o país.

Identifying the gap between need and intervention for alcohol use disorders in Europe.

AIMS: A literature review of existing research on the prevalence of alcohol use disorders (AUDs) and availability of alcohol interventions in Europe was conducted. The review also explored what is known about the gap between need and provision of alcohol interventions in Europe. METHODS: The review search strategy included: (i) descriptive studies of alcohol intervention systems in Europe; (ii) studies of alcohol service provision in Europe; and (iii) studies of prevalence of AUD and alcohol needs assessment in Europe. RESULTS: Europe has a relatively high level of alcohol consumption and the resulting disabilities are the highest in the world. Most research on implementation of alcohol interventions in Europe has been restricted to screening and brief interventions. Alcohol needs assessment methodology has been developed but has not been applied in comparative studies across countries in Europe. CONCLUSIONS: This review points to key gaps in knowledge related to alcohol interventions in Europe. There is a lack of comparative data on variations in alcohol treatment systems across European countries and there is also a lack of comparative data on the prevalence of alcohol use disorders across European countries and the relative gap between need and access to treatment. The forthcoming Alcohol Measures for Public Health Research Alliance (AMPHORA) research project work package on 'Early identification and treatment' aims to address these gaps.

A hypomorphic mutation in lpin1 induces progressively improving neuropathy and lipodystrophy in the rat.

The Lpin1 gene encodes the phosphatidate phosphatase (PAP1) enzyme Lipin 1, which plays a critical role in lipid metabolism. In this study we describe the identification and characterization of a rat model with a mutated Lpin1 gene (Lpin1(1Hubr)), generated by N-ethyl-N-nitrosourea mutagenesis. Lpin1(1Hubr) rats are characterized by hindlimb paralysis and mild lipodystrophy that are detectable from the second postnatal week. Sequencing of Lpin1 identified a point mutation in the 5'-end splice site of intron 18 resulting in mis-splicing, a reading frameshift, and a premature stop codon. As this mutation does not induce nonsense-mediated decay, it allows the production of a truncated Lipin 1 protein lacking PAP1 activity. Lpin1(1Hubr) rats developed hypomyelination and mild lipodystrophy rather than the pronounced demyelination and adipocyte defects characteristic of Lpin1(fld/fld) mice, which carry a null allele for Lpin1. Furthermore, biochemical, histological, and molecular analyses revealed that these lesions improve in older Lpin1(1Hubr) rats as compared with young Lpin1(1Hubr) rats and Lpin1(fld/fld) mice. We observed activation of compensatory biochemical pathways substituting for missing PAP1 activity that, in combination with a possible non-enzymatic Lipin 1 function residing outside of its PAP1 domain, may contribute to the less severe phenotypes observed in Lpin1(1Hubr) rats as compared with Lpin1(fld/fld) mice. Although we are cautious in making a direct parallel between the presented rodent model and human disease, our data may provide new insight into the pathogenicity of recently identified human LPIN1 mutations.

Identification of a mammalian H(+)-myo-inositol symporter expressed predominantly in the brain.

Inositol and its phosphorylated derivatives play a major role in brain function, either as osmolytes, second messengers or regulators of vesicle endo- and exocytosis. Here we describe the identification and functional characterization of a novel H(+)-myo- inositol co-transporter, HMIT, expressed predominantly in the brain. HMIT cDNA encodes a 618 amino acid polypeptide with 12 predicted transmembrane domains. Functional expression of HMIT in Xenopus oocytes showed that transport activity was specific for myo-inositol and related stereoisomers with a Michaelis-Menten constant of approximately 100 microM, and that transport activity was strongly stimulated by decreasing pH. Electrophysiological measurements revealed that transport was electrogenic with a maximal transport activity reached at pH 5.0. In rat brain membrane preparations, HMIT appeared as a 75-90 kDa protein that could be converted to a 67 kDa band upon enzymatic deglycosylation. Immunofluorescence microscopy analysis showed HMIT expression in glial cells and some neurons. These data provide the first characterization of a mammalian H(+)-coupled myo- inositol transporter. Predominant central expression of HMIT suggests that it has a key role in the control of myo-inositol brain metabolism.

An adenovirus-based fluorescent reporter vector to identify and isolate HIV-infected cells.

A procedure is described that allows the simple identification and sorting of live human cells that transcribe actively the HIV virus, based on the detection of GFP fluorescence in cells. Using adenoviral vectors for gene transfer, an expression cassette including the HIV-1 LTR driving the reporter gene GFP was introduced into cells that expressed stably either the Tat transcriptional activator, or an inactive mutant of Tat. Both northern and fluorescence-activated cell sorting (FACS) analysis indicate that cells containing the functional Tat protein presented levels of GFP mRNA and GFP fluorescence several orders of magnitude higher than control cells. Correspondingly, cells infected with HIV-1 showed similar enhanced reporter gene activation. HIV-1-infected cells of the lymphocytic line Jurkat were easily identified by fluorescence-activated cell sorting (FACS) as they displayed a much higher green fluorescence after transduction with the reporter adenoviral vector. This procedure could also be applied on primary human cells as blood monocyte-derived macrophages exposed to the adenoviral LTR-GFP reporter presented a much higher fluorescence when infected with HIV-1 compared with HIV-uninfected cells. The vector described has the advantages of labelling cells independently of their proliferation status and that analysis can be carried on intact cells which can be isolated subsequently by fluorescence-activated cell sorting (FACS) for further culture. This work suggests that adenoviral vectors carrying a virus-specific transcriptional control element controlling the expressions of a fluorescent protein will be useful in the identification and isolation of cells transcribing actively the viral template, and to be of use for drug screening and susceptibility assays.

ANIBAL, stable isotope-based quantitative proteomics by aniline and benzoic acid labeling of amino and carboxylic groups

Identification and relative quantification of hundreds to thousands of proteins within complex biological samples have become realistic with the emergence of stable isotope labeling in combination with high throughput mass spectrometry. However, all current chemical approaches target a single amino acid functionality (most often lysine or cysteine) despite the fact that addressing two or more amino acid side chains would drastically increase quantifiable information as shown by in silico analysis in this study. Although the combination of existing approaches, e.g. ICAT with isotope-coded protein labeling, is analytically feasible, it implies high costs, and the combined application of two different chemistries (kits) may not be straightforward. Therefore, we describe here the development and validation of a new stable isotope-based quantitative proteomics approach, termed aniline benzoic acid labeling (ANIBAL), using a twin chemistry approach targeting two frequent amino acid functionalities, the carboxylic and amino groups. Two simple and inexpensive reagents, aniline and benzoic acid, in their (12)C and (13)C form with convenient mass peak spacing (6 Da) and without chromatographic discrimination or modification in fragmentation behavior, are used to modify carboxylic and amino groups at the protein level, resulting in an identical peptide bond-linked benzoyl modification for both reactions. The ANIBAL chemistry is simple and straightforward and is the first method that uses a (13)C-reagent for a general stable isotope labeling approach of carboxylic groups. In silico as well as in vitro analyses clearly revealed the increase in available quantifiable information using such a twin approach. ANIBAL was validated by means of model peptides and proteins with regard to the quality of the chemistry as well as the ionization behavior of the derivatized peptides. A milk fraction was used for dynamic range assessment of protein quantification, and a bacterial lysate was used for the evaluation of relative protein quantification in a complex sample in two different biological states

New perspectives in the use of ink evidence in forensic science: Part III: Operational applications and evaluation

The research reported in this series of article aimed at (1) automating the search of questioned ink specimens in ink reference collections and (2) at evaluating the strength of ink evidence in a transparent and balanced manner. These aims require that ink samples are analysed in an accurate and reproducible way and that they are compared in an objective and automated way. This latter requirement is due to the large number of comparisons that are necessary in both scenarios. A research programme was designed to (a) develop a standard methodology for analysing ink samples in a reproducible way, (b) comparing automatically and objectively ink samples and (c) evaluate the proposed methodology in forensic contexts. This report focuses on the last of the three stages of the research programme. The calibration and acquisition process and the mathematical comparison algorithms were described in previous papers [C. Neumann, P. Margot, New perspectives in the use of ink evidence in forensic science-Part I: Development of a quality assurance process for forensic ink analysis by HPTLC, Forensic Sci. Int. 185 (2009) 29-37; C. Neumann, P. Margot, New perspectives in the use of ink evidence in forensic science- Part II: Development and testing of mathematical algorithms for the automatic comparison of ink samples analysed by HPTLC, Forensic Sci. Int. 185 (2009) 38-50]. In this paper, the benefits and challenges of the proposed concepts are tested in two forensic contexts: (1) ink identification and (2) ink evidential value assessment. The results show that different algorithms are better suited for different tasks. This research shows that it is possible to build digital ink libraries using the most commonly used ink analytical technique, i.e. high-performance thin layer chromatography, despite its reputation of lacking reproducibility. More importantly, it is possible to assign evidential value to ink evidence in a transparent way using a probabilistic model. It is therefore possible to move away from the traditional subjective approach, which is entirely based on experts' opinion, and which is usually not very informative. While there is room for the improvement, this report demonstrates the significant gains obtained over the traditional subjective approach for the search of ink specimens in ink databases, and the interpretation of their evidential value.

Testosterone and doping control.

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVES: Anabolic steroids are synthetic derivatives of testosterone, modified to enhance its anabolic actions (promotion of protein synthesis and muscle growth). They have numerous side effects, and are on the International Olympic Committee's list of banned substances. Gas chromatography-mass spectrometry allows identification and characterisation of steroids and their metabolites in the urine but may not distinguish between pharmaceutical and natural testosterone. Indirect methods to detect doping include determination of the testosterone/epitestosterone glucuronide ratio with suitable cut-off values. Direct evidence may be obtained with a method based on the determination of the carbon isotope ratio of the urinary steroids. This paper aims to give an overview of the use of anabolic-androgenic steroids in sport and methods used in anti-doping laboratories for their detection in urine, with special emphasis on doping with testosterone. METHODS: Review of the recent literature of anabolic steroid testing, athletic use, and adverse effects of anabolic-androgenic steroids. RESULTS: Procedures used for detection of doping with endogenous steroids are outlined. The World Anti-Doping Agency provided a guide in August 2004 to ensure that laboratories can report, in a uniform way, the presence of abnormal profiles of urinary steroids resulting from the administration of testosterone or its precursors, androstenediol, androstenedione, dehydroepiandrosterone or a testosterone metabolite, dihydrotestosterone, or a masking agent, epitestosterone. CONCLUSIONS: Technology developed for detection of testosterone in urine samples appears suitable when the substance has been administered intramuscularly. Oral administration leads to rapid pharmacokinetics, so urine samples need to be collected in the initial hours after intake. Thus there is a need to find specific biomarkers in urine or plasma to enable detection of long term oral administration of testosterone.

Chemical and mineralogical changes in a Brazilian Rhodic Paleudult under different land use and managements

Changes in land use and management can affect the dynamic equilibrium of soil systems and induce chemical and mineralogical alterations. This study was based on two long-term experiments (10 and 27 years) to evaluate soil used for no-tillage maize cultivation, with and without poultry litter application (NTPL and NTM), and with grazed native pasture fertilized with cattle droppings (GrP), on the chemical and mineralogical characteristics of a Rhodic Paleudult in Southern Brazil, in comparison with the same soil under native grassland (NGr). In the four treatments, soil was sampled from the 0.0-2.5 and 2.5-5.0 cm layers. In the air-dried fine soil (ADFS) fraction (∅ < 2 mm), chemical characteristics of solid and liquid phases and the specific surface area (SSA) were evaluated. The clay fraction (∅ < 0.002 mm) in the 0.0-2.5 cm layer was analyzed by X-ray diffraction (XRD) after treatments for identification and characterization of 2:1 clay minerals. Animal waste application increased the total organic C concentration (COT) and specific surface area (SSA) in the 0.0-2.5 cm layer. In comparison to NGr, poultry litter application (NTPL) increased the concentrations of Ca and CECpH7, while cattle droppings (GrP) increased the P and K concentrations. In the soil solution, the concentration of dissolved organic C was positively related with COT levels. With regard to NGr, the soil use with crops (NTM and NTPL) had practically no effect on the chemical elements in solution. On the other hand, the concentrations of most chemical elements in solution were higher in GrP, especially of Fe, Al and Si. The Fe and Al concentrations in the soil iron oxides were lower, indicating reductive/complexive dissolution of crystalline forms. The X-ray diffraction (XRD) patterns of clay in the GrP environment showed a decrease in intensity and reflection area of the 2:1 clay minerals. This fact, along with the intensified Al and Si activity in soil solution indicate dissolution of clay minerals in soil under cattle-grazed pasture fertilized with animal droppings.

Understanding Political Knowledge and Its Influence on Voting Preferences in the 2007 Federal Election

In this article we propose a model to explain how voters' perceptions of their ideological proximity to a party affect their propensity to vote for that party. We argue that political knowledge plays a crucial moderating role in the relationship between party proximity and voting propensity. It is necessary, however, to distinguish between institutional knowledge (information about the political system) and party knowledge (information about the parties' left-right positions). An analysis of survey data from the 2007 Swiss federal elections supports our main hypothesis that party knowledge enhances the link between party proximity and voting propensity. Institutional knowledge may have additional influence, but clear evidence for this effect was obtained only for propensities to vote for the Swiss People's Party (SVP). Overall, the impact of political knowledge was found to be substantial, even after controlling for the outstanding influence of party identification and other predictors of voting propensities

The contributions of sensory dominance and attentional bias to cross-modal enhancement of visual cortex excitability.

Approaching or looming sounds (L-sounds) have been shown to selectively increase visual cortex excitability [Romei, V., Murray, M. M., Cappe, C., & Thut, G. Preperceptual and stimulus-selective enhancement of low-level human visual cortex excitability by sounds. Current Biology, 19, 1799-1805, 2009]. These cross-modal effects start at an early, preperceptual stage of sound processing and persist with increasing sound duration. Here, we identified individual factors contributing to cross-modal effects on visual cortex excitability and studied the persistence of effects after sound offset. To this end, we probed the impact of different L-sound velocities on phosphene perception postsound as a function of individual auditory versus visual preference/dominance using single-pulse TMS over the occipital pole. We found that the boosting of phosphene perception by L-sounds continued for several tens of milliseconds after the end of the L-sound and was temporally sensitive to different L-sound profiles (velocities). In addition, we found that this depended on an individual's preferred sensory modality (auditory vs. visual) as determined through a divided attention task (attentional preference), but not on their simple threshold detection level per sensory modality. Whereas individuals with "visual preference" showed enhanced phosphene perception irrespective of L-sound velocity, those with "auditory preference" showed differential peaks in phosphene perception whose delays after sound-offset followed the different L-sound velocity profiles. These novel findings suggest that looming signals modulate visual cortex excitability beyond sound duration possibly to support prompt identification and reaction to potentially dangerous approaching objects. The observed interindividual differences favor the idea that unlike early effects this late L-sound impact on visual cortex excitability is influenced by cross-modal attentional mechanisms rather than low-level sensory processes.

Data-driven clustering : new methods and applications

Abstract : This work is concerned with the development and application of novel unsupervised learning methods, having in mind two target applications: the analysis of forensic case data and the classification of remote sensing images. First, a method based on a symbolic optimization of the inter-sample distance measure is proposed to improve the flexibility of spectral clustering algorithms, and applied to the problem of forensic case data. This distance is optimized using a loss function related to the preservation of neighborhood structure between the input space and the space of principal components, and solutions are found using genetic programming. Results are compared to a variety of state-of--the-art clustering algorithms. Subsequently, a new large-scale clustering method based on a joint optimization of feature extraction and classification is proposed and applied to various databases, including two hyperspectral remote sensing images. The algorithm makes uses of a functional model (e.g., a neural network) for clustering which is trained by stochastic gradient descent. Results indicate that such a technique can easily scale to huge databases, can avoid the so-called out-of-sample problem, and can compete with or even outperform existing clustering algorithms on both artificial data and real remote sensing images. This is verified on small databases as well as very large problems. Résumé : Ce travail de recherche porte sur le développement et l'application de méthodes d'apprentissage dites non supervisées. Les applications visées par ces méthodes sont l'analyse de données forensiques et la classification d'images hyperspectrales en télédétection. Dans un premier temps, une méthodologie de classification non supervisée fondée sur l'optimisation symbolique d'une mesure de distance inter-échantillons est proposée. Cette mesure est obtenue en optimisant une fonction de coût reliée à la préservation de la structure de voisinage d'un point entre l'espace des variables initiales et l'espace des composantes principales. Cette méthode est appliquée à l'analyse de données forensiques et comparée à un éventail de méthodes déjà existantes. En second lieu, une méthode fondée sur une optimisation conjointe des tâches de sélection de variables et de classification est implémentée dans un réseau de neurones et appliquée à diverses bases de données, dont deux images hyperspectrales. Le réseau de neurones est entraîné à l'aide d'un algorithme de gradient stochastique, ce qui rend cette technique applicable à des images de très haute résolution. Les résultats de l'application de cette dernière montrent que l'utilisation d'une telle technique permet de classifier de très grandes bases de données sans difficulté et donne des résultats avantageusement comparables aux méthodes existantes.