An analysis of the Galveston Hurricane using the 20CR data set

The Twentieth Century Reanalysis (20CR) is an atmospheric dataset consisting of 56 ensemble members, which covers the entire globe and reaches back to 1871. To assess the suitability of this dataset for studying past extremes, we analysed a prominent extreme event, namely the Galveston Hurricane, which made landfall in September 1900 in Texas, USA. The ensemble mean of 20CR shows a track of the pressure minimum with a small standard deviation among the 56 ensemble members in the area of the Gulf of Mexico. However, there are systematic differences between the assimilated “Best Track” from the International Best Track Archive for Climate Stewardship (IBTrACS) and the ensemble mean track in 20CR. East of the Strait of Florida, the tracks derived from 20CR are located systematically northeast of the assimilated track while in the Gulf of Mexico, the 20CR tracks are systematically shifted to the southwest compared to the IBTrACS position. The hurricane can also be observed in the wind field, which shows a cyclonic rotation and a relatively calm zone in the centre of the hurricane. The 20CR data reproduce the pressure gradient and cyclonic wind field. Regarding the amplitude of the wind speeds, the ensemble mean values from 20CR are significantly lower than the wind speeds known from measurements.

The Samoa Hurricane, 15-16 March 1889

Analysing historical weather extremes such as the tropical cyclone in Samoa in March 1889 could add to our understanding of extreme events. However, up to now the availability of suitable data was limiting the analysis of historical extremes, particularly in remote regions. The new “Twentieth Century Reanalysis” (20CR), which provides six-hourly, three-dimensional data for the entire globe back to 1871, might provide the means to study this and other early events. While its suitability for studying historical extremes has been analysed for events in the northern extratropics (see other papers in this volume), the representation of tropical cyclones, especially in early times, remains unknown. The aim of this paper is to study to the hurricane that struck Samoa on 15-16 March 1889. We analyse the event in 20CR as well as in contemporary observations. We find that the event is not reproduced in the ensemble mean of 20CR, nor is it within the ensemble spread. We argue that this is due to the paucity of data assimilated into 20CR. A preliminary compilation of historical observations from ships for that period, in contrast, provides a relatively consistent picture of the event. This shows that more observations would be available and implies that future versions of surface-based reanalyses might profit from digitizing further observations in the tropical region.

Investigating the sensitivity of hurricane intensity and trajectory to sea surface temperatures using the regional model WRF

The influence of sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies on the hurricane characteristics are investigated in a set of sensitivity experiments employing the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model. The idealised experiments are performed for the case of Hurricane Katrina in 2005. The first set of sensitivity experiments with basin-wide changes of the SST magnitude shows that the intensity goes along with changes in the SST, i.e., an increase in SST leads to an intensification of Katrina. Additionally, the trajectory is shifted to the west (east), with increasing (decreasing) SSTs. The main reason is a strengthening of the background flow. The second set of experiments investigates the influence of Loop Current eddies idealised by localised SST anomalies. The intensity of Hurricane Katrina is enhanced with increasing SSTs close to the core of a tropical cyclone. Negative nearby SST anomalies reduce the intensity. The trajectory only changes if positive SST anomalies are located west or north of the hurricane centre. In this case the hurricane is attracted by the SST anomaly which causes an additional moisture source and increased vertical winds.

A process evaluation of the childhood lead poisoning prevention program in Houston, Texas, 1992--1995

A process evaluation of the Houston Childhood Lead Poisoning Prevention Program, 1992-1995, was conducted. The Program's goal is to reduce lead poisoning prevalence. The study proposed to determine to what extent the Program was implemented as planned by measuring how well Program services were actually: (1) received by the intended target population; (2) delivered to children with elevated blood lead levels; (3) delivered in compliance with the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention and Program guidelines and timetables; and (4) able to reduce lead poisoning prevalence among those rescreened. Utilizing a program monitoring design, the Program's pre-collected computer records were reviewed. The study sample consisted of 820 children whose blood lead levels were above 15 micrograms per deciLiter, representing approximately 2.9% of the 28,406 screened over this period. Three blood lead levels from each participant were examined: the initial elevated result; the confirmatory result; and the next rescreen result, after the elevated confirmatory level. Results showed that the Program screened approximately 18% (28,406 of 161,569) of Houston's children under age 6 years for lead poisoning. Based on Chi-square tests of significance, results also showed that lead-poisoned participants were more likely to be younger than 3 years, male and Hispanic, compared to those not lead poisoned. The age, gender and ethnic differences observed were statistically significant (p =.01, p =.00, p =.00). Four of the six Program services: medical evaluations, rescreening, environmental inspections and confirmation, had satisfactory delivery completion rates of 71%-98%. Delivery timetable compliance rates for three of the six services examined: outreach contacts, home visits and environmental inspections were below 32%. However, dangerously elevated blood lead levels fell and lead poisoning prevalence dropped from 3.3% at initial screening to 1.2% among those rescreened, after intervention. From a public health perspective, reductions in lead poisoning prevalence are very meaningful. Based on these findings, the following are recommendations for future research: (1) integrate Program database files by utilizing a computer database management program; (2) target services at Hispanic male children under age 3 years living in the highest risk neighborhoods; (3) increase resources to: improve tracking and documentation of service delivery and provide more non-medical case management and environmental services; and (4) share the evaluation methodology/findings with the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention administrators; the implications may be relevant to other program managers conducting such assessments. ^

The Olive Tree, Vol. 3 Number 1, 1995

The Winter/Spring issue of The Olive Tree features articles about library projects, collections, technological innovations, and events at Fogler Library, University of Maine.

The influence of absorbed solar radiation by Saharan dust on hurricane genesis

To date, the radiative impact of dust and the Sahar an air layer (SAL) on North Atlantic hurricane activity is not yet known. According to previous studies, dust stabilizes the atmosphere due to absorption of solar radiation but thus shifts convection to regions more conducive for hurricane genesis. Here we analyze differences in hurricane genesis and frequency from ensemble sensitivity simulations with radiatively active and inactive dust in the aerosol-climate model ECHAM6-HAM. We investigate dust burden and other hurricane-related variables and determine their influence on disturbances which develop into hurricanes (developing disturbances, DDs) and those which do not (nondeveloping disturbances, NDDs). Dust and the SAL are found to potentially have both inhibiting and supporting influences on background conditions for hurricane genesis. A slight southward shift of DDs is determined when dust is active as well as a significant warming of the SAL, which leads to a strengthening of the vertical circulation associated with the SAL. The dust burden of DDs is smaller in active dust simulations compared to DDs in simulations with inactive dust, while NDDs contain more dust in active dust simulations. However, no significant influence of radiatively active dust on other variables in DDs and NDDs is found. Furthermore, no substantial change in the DD and NDD frequency due to the radiative effects of dust can be detected.