Evolution of stress deficit and changing rates of seismicity in cellular automaton models of earthquake faults

We investigate the internal dynamics of two cellular automaton models with heterogeneous strength fields and differing nearest neighbour laws. One model is a crack-like automaton, transferring ail stress from a rupture zone to the surroundings. The other automaton is a partial stress drop automaton, transferring only a fraction of the stress within a rupture zone to the surroundings. To study evolution of stress, the mean spectral density. f(k(r)) of a stress deficit held is: examined prior to, and immediately following ruptures in both models. Both models display a power-law relationship between f(k(r)) and spatial wavenumber (k(r)) of the form f(k(r)) similar tok(r)(-beta). In the crack model, the evolution of stress deficit is consistent with cyclic approach to, and retreat from a critical state in which large events occur. The approach to criticality is driven by tectonic loading. Short-range stress transfer in the model does not affect the approach to criticality of broad regions in the model. The evolution of stress deficit in the partial stress drop model is consistent with small fluctuations about a mean state of high stress, behaviour indicative of a self-organised critical system. Despite statistics similar to natural earthquakes these simplified models lack a physical basis. physically motivated models of earthquakes also display dynamical complexity similar to that of a critical point system. Studies of dynamical complexity in physical models of earthquakes may lead to advancement towards a physical theory for earthquakes.

Accelerating seismic energy release and evolution of event time and size statistics: Results from two heterogeneous cellular automaton models

The evolution of event time and size statistics in two heterogeneous cellular automaton models of earthquake behavior are studied and compared to the evolution of these quantities during observed periods of accelerating seismic energy release Drier to large earthquakes. The two automata have different nearest neighbor laws, one of which produces self-organized critical (SOC) behavior (PSD model) and the other which produces quasi-periodic large events (crack model). In the PSD model periods of accelerating energy release before large events are rare. In the crack model, many large events are preceded by periods of accelerating energy release. When compared to randomized event catalogs, accelerating energy release before large events occurs more often than random in the crack model but less often than random in the PSD model; it is easier to tell the crack and PSD model results apart from each other than to tell either model apart from a random catalog. The evolution of event sizes during the accelerating energy release sequences in all models is compared to that of observed sequences. The accelerating energy release sequences in the crack model consist of an increase in the rate of events of all sizes, consistent with observations from a small number of natural cases, however inconsistent with a larger number of cases in which there is an increase in the rate of only moderate-sized events. On average, no increase in the rate of events of any size is seen before large events in the PSD model.

Simultaneous steady state and dynamic design of process systems using structural indicators

The simultaneous design of the steady-state and dynamic performance of a process has the ability to satisfy much more demanding dynamic performance criteria than the design of dynamics only by the connection of a control system. A method for designing process dynamics based on the use of a linearised systems' eigenvalues has been developed. The eigenvalues are associated with system states using the unit perturbation spectral resolution (UPSR), characterising the dynamics of each state. The design method uses a homotopy approach to determine a final design which satisfies both steady-state and dynamic performance criteria. A highly interacting single stage forced circulation evaporator system, including control loops, was designed by this method with the goal of reducing the time taken for the liquid composition to reach steady-state. Initially the system was successfully redesigned to speed up the eigenvalue associated with the liquid composition state, but this did not result in an improved startup performance. Further analysis showed that the integral action of the composition controller was the source of the limiting eigenvalue. Design changes made to speed up this eigenvalue did result in an improved startup performance. The proposed approach provides a structured way to address the design-control interface, giving significant insight into the dynamic behaviour of the system such that a systematic design or redesign of an existing system can be undertaken with confidence.

An assumption-driven case-specific model editor

A case sensitive intelligent model editor has been developed for constructing consistent lumped dynamic process models and for simplifying them using modelling assumptions. The approach is based on a systematic assumption-driven modelling procedure and on the syntax and semantics of process,models and the simplifying assumptions.

Tidal fluctuations in a leaky confined aquifer: Dynamic effects of an overlying phreatic aquifer

Tidal fluctuations in a leaky confined coastal aquifer are damped significantly due to leakage into an overlying phreatic aquifer. Jiao and Tang [1999] presented an analytical solution to a simple model describing this phenomenon. Their solution assumes that the tidal fluctuations in the overlying phreatic aquifer are negligible (i.e,, a static phreatic aquifer), Here we examine dynamic effects of the overlying aquifer based on a new approximate analytical solution. The numerical results indicate that the dynamic effects can be significant for a relatively large leakage and a high transmissivity of the phreatic aquifer.

Modelling solute transport in structured soils: Performance evaluation of the ADR and TRM models

The movement of chemicals through the soil to the groundwater or discharged to surface waters represents a degradation of these resources. In many cases, serious human and stock health implications are associated with this form of pollution. The chemicals of interest include nutrients, pesticides, salts, and industrial wastes. Recent studies have shown that current models and methods do not adequately describe the leaching of nutrients through soil, often underestimating the risk of groundwater contamination by surface-applied chemicals, and overestimating the concentration of resident solutes. This inaccuracy results primarily from ignoring soil structure and nonequilibrium between soil constituents, water, and solutes. A multiple sample percolation system (MSPS), consisting of 25 individual collection wells, was constructed to study the effects of localized soil heterogeneities on the transport of nutrients (NO3-, Cl-, PO43-) in the vadose zone of an agricultural soil predominantly dominated by clay. Very significant variations in drainage patterns across a small spatial scale were observed tone-way ANOVA, p < 0.001) indicating considerable heterogeneity in water flow patterns and nutrient leaching. Using data collected from the multiple sample percolation experiments, this paper compares the performance of two mathematical models for predicting solute transport, the advective-dispersion model with a reaction term (ADR), and a two-region preferential flow model (TRM) suitable for modelling nonequilibrium transport. These results have implications for modelling solute transport and predicting nutrient loading on a larger scale. (C) 2001 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved.

Using stochastic dynamic programming to determine optimal fire management for Banksia ornata

1. A model of the population dynamics of Banksia ornata was developed, using stochastic dynamic programming (a state-dependent decision-making tool), to determine optimal fire management strategies that incorporate trade-offs between biodiversity conservation and fuel reduction. 2. The modelled population of B. ornata was described by its age and density, and was exposed to the risk of unplanned fires and stochastic variation in germination success. 3. For a given population in each year, three management strategies were considered: (i) lighting a prescribed fire; (ii) controlling the incidence of unplanned fire; (iii) doing nothing. 4. The optimal management strategy depended on the state of the B. ornata population, with the time since the last fire (age of the population) being the most important variable. Lighting a prescribed fire at an age of less than 30 years was only optimal when the density of seedlings after a fire was low (< 100 plants ha(-1)) or when there were benefits of maintaining a low fuel load by using more frequent fire. 5. Because the cost of management was assumed to be negligible (relative to the value of the persistence of the population), the do-nothing option was never the optimal strategy, although lighting prescribed fires had only marginal benefits when the mean interval between unplanned fires was less than 20-30 years.

Disaggregation of polygons of surficial geology and soil maps using spatial modelling and legacy data

Examples from the Murray-Darling basin in Australia are used to illustrate different methods of disaggregation of reconnaissance-scale maps. One approach for disaggregation revolves around the de-convolution of the soil-landscape paradigm elaborated during a soil survey. The descriptions of soil ma units and block diagrams in a soil survey report detail soil-landscape relationships or soil toposequences that can be used to disaggregate map units into component landscape elements. Toposequences can be visualised on a computer by combining soil maps with digital elevation data. Expert knowledge or statistics can be used to implement the disaggregation. Use of a restructuring element and k-means clustering are illustrated. Another approach to disaggregation uses training areas to develop rules to extrapolate detailed mapping into other, larger areas where detailed mapping is unavailable. A two-level decision tree example is presented. At one level, the decision tree method is used to capture mapping rules from the training area; at another level, it is used to define the domain over which those rules can be extrapolated. (C) 2001 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved.

Efficient discovery of immune response targets by cyclical refinement of QSAR models of peptide binding

Peptides that induce and recall T-cell responses are called T-cell epitopes. T-cell epitopes may be useful in a subunit vaccine against malaria. Computer models that simulate peptide binding to MHC are useful for selecting candidate T-cell epitopes since they minimize the number of experiments required for their identification. We applied a combination of computational and immunological strategies to select candidate T-cell epitopes. A total of 86 experimental binding assays were performed in three rounds of identification of HLA-All binding peptides from the six preerythrocytic malaria antigens. Thirty-six peptides were experimentally confirmed as binders. We show that the cyclical refinement of the ANN models results in a significant improvement of the efficiency of identifying potential T-cell epitopes. (C) 2001 by Elsevier Science Inc.

Integrable Kondo impurity in one-dimensional q-deformed t-J models

Integrable Kondo impurities in two cases of one-dimensional q-deformed t-J models are studied by means of the boundary Z(2)-graded quantum inverse scattering method. The boundary K matrices depending on the local magnetic moments of the impurities are presented as nontrivial realizations of the reflection equation algebras in an impurity Hilbert space. Furthermore, these models are solved by using the algebraic Bethe ansatz method and the Bethe ansatz equations are obtained.

Stochastic structure and individual-tree growth models

The majority of past and current individual-tree growth modelling methodologies have failed to characterise and incorporate structured stochastic components. Rather, they have relied on deterministic predictions or have added an unstructured random component to predictions. In particular, spatial stochastic structure has been neglected, despite being present in most applications of individual-tree growth models. Spatial stochastic structure (also called spatial dependence or spatial autocorrelation) eventuates when spatial influences such as competition and micro-site effects are not fully captured in models. Temporal stochastic structure (also called temporal dependence or temporal autocorrelation) eventuates when a sequence of measurements is taken on an individual-tree over time, and variables explaining temporal variation in these measurements are not included in the model. Nested stochastic structure eventuates when measurements are combined across sampling units and differences among the sampling units are not fully captured in the model. This review examines spatial, temporal, and nested stochastic structure and instances where each has been characterised in the forest biometry and statistical literature. Methodologies for incorporating stochastic structure in growth model estimation and prediction are described. Benefits from incorporation of stochastic structure include valid statistical inference, improved estimation efficiency, and more realistic and theoretically sound predictions. It is proposed in this review that individual-tree modelling methodologies need to characterise and include structured stochasticity. Possibilities for future research are discussed. (C) 2001 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved.

Mathematical models in percutaneous absorption

A number of mathematical models have been used to describe percutaneous absorption kinetics. In general, most of these models have used either diffusion-based or compartmental equations. The object of any mathematical model is to a) be able to represent the processes associated with absorption accurately, b) be able to describe/summarize experimental data with parametric equations or moments, and c) predict kinetics under varying conditions. However, in describing the processes involved, some developed models often suffer from being of too complex a form to be practically useful. In this chapter, we attempt to approach the issue of mathematical modeling in percutaneous absorption from four perspectives. These are to a) describe simple practical models, b) provide an overview of the more complex models, c) summarize some of the more important/useful models used to date, and d) examine sonic practical applications of the models. The range of processes involved in percutaneous absorption and considered in developing the mathematical models in this chapter is shown in Fig. 1. We initially address in vitro skin diffusion models and consider a) constant donor concentration and receptor conditions, b) the corresponding flux, donor, skin, and receptor amount-time profiles for solutions, and c) amount- and flux-time profiles when the donor phase is removed. More complex issues, such as finite-volume donor phase, finite-volume receptor phase, the presence of an efflux. rate constant at the membrane-receptor interphase, and two-layer diffusion, are then considered. We then look at specific models and issues concerned with a) release from topical products, b) use of compartmental models as alternatives to diffusion models, c) concentration-dependent absorption, d) modeling of skin metabolism, e) role of solute-skin-vehicle interactions, f) effects of vehicle loss, a) shunt transport, and h) in vivo diffusion, compartmental, physiological, and deconvolution models. We conclude by examining topics such as a) deep tissue penetration, b) pharmacodynamics, c) iontophoresis, d) sonophoresis, and e) pitfalls in modeling.

General properties of cosmological models with an isotropic singularity

Much of the published work regarding the Isotropic Singularity is performed under the assumption that the matter source for the cosmological model is a barotropic perfect fluid, or even a perfect fluid with a gamma-law equation of state. There are, however, some general properties of cosmological models which admit an Isotropic Singularity, irrespective of the matter source. In particular, we show that the Isotropic Singularity is a point-like singularity and that vacuum space-times cannot admit an Isotropic Singularity. The relationships between the Isotropic Singularity, and the energy conditions, and the Hubble parameter is explored. A review of work by the authors, regarding the Isotropic Singularity, is presented.

Kinetics of photoacclimation in corals

Traditional models describing the relationship between photosynthesis (P) and irradiance (I) do not account for photoacclimation to short-term variation in irradiance. Here we develop and test a model that predicts the rate of photosynthesis under fluctuating irradiances at the scale of days to weeks. Using oxygen respirometry, we measured the rates of change in the P-I model parameters P-max (maximum rate of gross photosynthesis) and I-k (sub-saturation irradiance) of the photo-symbiotic coral Turbinaria mesenterina (Lamarck) following large and small increases and decreases in growth irradiance. We analyse the behaviour of the dynamic P-I model in turbid-water conditions using a dataset of 3-month continuous irradiance as the input variable. In response to upward or downward changes in experimental growth irradiance, I-k values decreased or increased exponentially, reaching new and stable levels within 5-10 days. I-k responded 4 times stronger than P-max to changes in growth irradiance. The kinetics of I-k did not show hysteresis, and changed in similar ways when irradiance was increased or decreased in small or large amounts. This suggests that mechanisms associated with photo-protection during increases in irradiance, and the maximisation of photosynthetic efficiency during decreases in irradiance, are equally potent. On the scale of months, the dynamic P-I model did not predict higher rates of photosynthesis than the static P-I model, but buffered the variation in photosynthesis during periods of reduced irradiance. Fourier analysis indicated that the kinetics of I-k closely matches the main periodicities in daily irradiance (1-2 weeks). The recorded kinetics of photoacclimation in the Turbinaria-zooxanthella symbiosis is comparable to that of free-living phytoplankton and faster than that of higher plants.