Causal relationships vs. emergent patterns in the global controls of fire frequency

Global controls on month-by-month fractional burnt area (2000–2005) were investigated by fitting a generalised linear model (GLM) to Global Fire Emissions Database (GFED) data, with 11 predictor variables representing vegetation, climate, land use and potential ignition sources. Burnt area is shown to increase with annual net primary production (NPP), number of dry days, maximum temperature, grazing-land area, grass/shrub cover and diurnal temperature range, and to decrease with soil moisture, cropland area and population density. Lightning showed an apparent (weak) negative influence, but this disappeared when pure seasonal-cycle effects were taken into account. The model predicts observed geographic and seasonal patterns, as well as the emergent relationships seen when burnt area is plotted against each variable separately. Unimodal relationships with mean annual temperature and precipitation, population density and gross domestic product (GDP) are reproduced too, and are thus shown to be secondary consequences of correlations between different controls (e.g. high NPP with high precipitation; low NPP with low population density and GDP). These findings have major implications for the design of global fire models, as several assumptions in current models – most notably, the widely assumed dependence of fire frequency on ignition rates – are evidently incorrect.

Christian Gottlob Heyne and the changing fortunes of the commentary in the age of Altertumswissenschaft

This chapter discusses the pedagogic and scholarly priorities that informed Heyne’s commentaries on Tibullus (1755), Virgil (1767-75) and Homer (1802), as well as their initial critical reception. Like those of his teachers, Gesner and Ernesti, Heyne’s works eschew detailed textual scholarship in favour of aesthetic and historicizing appreciation of literary works as wholes. Their formal innovations – most notably the relegation of advanced philological discussions to endnotes and the inclusion of excursuses on significant historical and cultural questions – are an attempt to tailor a traditional format to the demands of an Enlightened age and the cultural-historical interests of the new Altertumswissenschaft. The chapter discusses their contrasting critical receptions in order to raise questions about the viability of Heyne’s endeavours to make a traditional medium fit new concerns.

Vertical structure and physical processes of the Madden-Julian oscillation: Linking hindcast fidelity to simulated diabatic heating and moistening

Many theories for the Madden-Julian oscillation (MJO) focus on diabatic processes, particularly the evolution of vertical heating and moistening. Poor MJO performance in weather and climate models is often blamed on biases in these processes and their interactions with the large-scale circulation. We introduce one of three components of a model-evaluation project, which aims to connect MJO fidelity in models to their representations of several physical processes, focusing on diabatic heating and moistening. This component consists of 20-day hindcasts, initialised daily during two MJO events in winter 2009-10. The 13 models exhibit a range of skill: several have accurate forecasts to 20 days' lead, while others perform similarly to statistical models (8-11 days). Models that maintain the observed MJO amplitude accurately predict propagation, but not vice versa. We find no link between hindcast fidelity and the precipitation-moisture relationship, in contrast to other recent studies. There is also no relationship between models' performance and the evolution of their diabatic-heating profiles with rain rate. A more robust association emerges between models' fidelity and net moistening: the highest-skill models show a clear transition from low-level moistening for light rainfall to mid-level moistening at moderate rainfall and upper-level moistening for heavy rainfall. The mid-level moistening, arising from both dynamics and physics, may be most important. Accurately representing many processes may be necessary, but not sufficient for capturing the MJO, which suggests that models fail to predict the MJO for a broad range of reasons and limits the possibility of finding a panacea.

Vertical structure and physical processes of the Madden-Julian oscillation: synthesis and summary

The "Vertical structure and physical processes of the Madden-Julian oscillation (MJO)" project comprises three experiments, designed to evaluate comprehensively the heating, moistening and momentum associated with tropical convection in general circulation models (GCMs). We consider here only those GCMs that performed all experiments. Some models display relatively higher or lower MJO fidelity in both initialized hindcasts and climate simulations, while others show considerable variations in fidelity between experiments. Fidelity in hindcasts and climate simulations are not meaningfully correlated. The analysis of each experiment led to the development of process-oriented diagnostics, some of which distinguished between GCMs with higher or lower fidelity in that experiment. We select the most discriminating diagnostics and apply them to data from all experiments, where possible, to determine if correlations with MJO fidelity hold across scales and GCM states. While normalized gross moist stability had a small but statistically significant correlation with MJO fidelity in climate simulations, we find no link with fidelity in medium-range hindcasts. Similarly, there is no association between timestep-to-timestep rainfall variability, identified from short hindcasts, and fidelity in medium-range hindcasts or climate simulations. Two metrics that relate precipitation to free-tropospheric moisture--the relative humidity for extreme daily precipitation, and variations in the height and amplitude of moistening with rain rate--successfully distinguish between higher- and lower-fidelity GCMs in hindcasts and climate simulations. To improve the MJO, developers should focus on relationships between convection and both total moisture and its rate of change. We conclude by offering recommendations for further experiments.

Vertical structure and physical processes of the Madden-Julian oscillation: exploring key model physics in climate simulations

Aimed at reducing deficiencies in representing the Madden-Julian oscillation (MJO) in general circulation models (GCMs), a global model evaluation project on vertical structure and physical processes of the MJO was coordinated. In this paper, results from the climate simulation component of this project are reported. It is shown that the MJO remains a great challenge in these latest generation GCMs. The systematic eastward propagation of the MJO is only well simulated in about one-fourth of the total participating models. The observed vertical westward tilt with altitude of the MJO is well simulated in good MJO models, but not in the poor ones. Damped Kelvin wave responses to the east of convection in the lower troposphere could be responsible for the missing MJO preconditioning process in these poor MJO models. Several process-oriented diagnostics were conducted to discriminate key processes for realistic MJO simulations. While large-scale rainfall partition and low-level mean zonal winds over the Indo-Pacific in a model are not found to be closely associated with its MJO skill, two metrics, including the low-level relative humidity difference between high and low rain events and seasonal mean gross moist stability, exhibit statistically significant correlations with the MJO performance. It is further indicated that increased cloud-radiative feedback tends to be associated with reduced amplitude of intraseasonal variability, which is incompatible with the radiative instability theory previously proposed for the MJO. Results in this study confirm that inclusion of air-sea interaction can lead to significant improvement in simulating the MJO.

Vertical structure and physical processes of the Madden-Julian oscillation: Biases and uncertainties at short range

An analysis of diabatic heating and moistening processes from 12-36 hour lead time forecasts from 12 Global Circulation Models are presented as part of the "Vertical structure and physical processes of the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO)" project. A lead time of 12-36 hours is chosen to constrain the large scale dynamics and thermodynamics to be close to observations while avoiding being too close to the initial spin-up for the models as they adjust to being driven from the YOTC analysis. A comparison of the vertical velocity and rainfall with the observations and YOTC analysis suggests that the phases of convection associated with the MJO are constrained in most models at this lead time although the rainfall in the suppressed phase is typically overestimated. Although the large scale dynamics is reasonably constrained, moistening and heating profiles have large inter-model spread. In particular, there are large spreads in convective heating and moistening at mid-levels during the transition to active convection. Radiative heating and cloud parameters have the largest relative spread across models at upper levels during the active phase. A detailed analysis of time step behaviour shows that some models show strong intermittency in rainfall and differences in the precipitation and dynamics relationship between models. The wealth of model outputs archived during this project is a very valuable resource for model developers beyond the study of the MJO. In addition, the findings of this study can inform the design of process model experiments, and inform the priorities for field experiments and future observing systems.

Climate versus carbon dioxide controls on biomass burning: a model analysis of the glacial–interglacial contrast

Climate controls fire regimes through its influence on the amount and types of fuel present and their dryness. CO2 concentration constrains primary production by limiting photosynthetic activity in plants. However, although fuel accumulation depends on biomass production, and hence on CO2 concentration, the quantitative relationship between atmospheric CO2 concentration and biomass burning is not well understood. Here a fire-enabled dynamic global vegetation model (the Land surface Processes and eXchanges model, LPX) is used to attribute glacial–interglacial changes in biomass burning to an increase in CO2, which would be expected to increase primary production and therefore fuel loads even in the absence of climate change, vs. climate change effects. Four general circulation models provided last glacial maximum (LGM) climate anomalies – that is, differences from the pre-industrial (PI) control climate – from the Palaeoclimate Modelling Intercomparison Project Phase~2, allowing the construction of four scenarios for LGM climate. Modelled carbon fluxes from biomass burning were corrected for the model's observed prediction biases in contemporary regional average values for biomes. With LGM climate and low CO2 (185 ppm) effects included, the modelled global flux at the LGM was in the range of 1.0–1.4 Pg C year-1, about a third less than that modelled for PI time. LGM climate with pre-industrial CO2 (280 ppm) yielded unrealistic results, with global biomass burning fluxes similar to or even greater than in the pre-industrial climate. It is inferred that a substantial part of the increase in biomass burning after the LGM must be attributed to the effect of increasing CO2 concentration on primary production and fuel load. Today, by analogy, both rising CO2 and global warming must be considered as risk factors for increasing biomass burning. Both effects need to be included in models to project future fire risks.

Targeted activation of toll-like receptors: conjugation of a toll-like receptor 7 agonist to a monoclonal antibody maintains antigen binding and specificity

Therapeutic activation of Toll-like receptors (TLR) has potential for cancer immunotherapy, for augmenting the activity of anti-tumor monoclonal antibodies (mAbs), and for improved vaccine adjuvants. A previous attempt to specifically target TLR agonists to dendritic cells (DC) using mAbs failed because conjugation led to non-specific binding and mAbs lost specificity. We demonstrate here for the first time the successful conjugation of a small molecule TLR7 agonist to an anti-tumour mAb (the anti-hCD 20 rituximab) without compromising antigen specificity. The TLR7 agonist UC-1V150 was conjugated to rituximab using two conjugation methods and yield, molecular substitution ratio, retention of TLR7 activity and specificity of antigen binding were compared. Both conjugation methods produced rituximab-UC-1V150 conjugates with UC-1V150 : rituximab ratio ranging from 1:1 to 3:1 with drug loading quantified by UV spectroscopy and drug substitution ratio verified by MALDI TOF mass spectroscopy. The yield of purified conjugates varied with conjugation method, and dropped as low as 31% using a method previously described for conjugating UC-1V150 to proteins, where a bifunctional crosslinker was firstly reacted with rituximab, and secondly to the TLR7 agonist. We therefore developed a direct conjugation method by producing an amine-reactive UV active version of UC-1V150, termed NHS:UC-1V150. Direct conjugation with NHS:UC-1V150 was quick and simple and gave improved conjugate yields of 65-78%. Rituximab-UC-1V150 conjugates had the expected pro-inflammatory activity in vitro (EC50 28-53 nM) with a significantly increased activity over unconjugated UC-1V150 (EC50 547 nM). Antigen binding and specificity of the rituxuimab-UC-1V150 conjugates was retained, and after incubation with human peripheral blood leukocytes, all conjugates bound strongly only to CD20-expressing B cells whilst no non-specific binding to CD20-negative cells was observed. Selective targeting of Toll-like receptor activation directly within tumors or to DC is now feasible.

Responses of leaf traits to climatic gradients: adaptive variation versus compositional shifts

Dynamic global vegetation models (DGVMs) typically rely on plant functional types (PFTs), which are assigned distinct environmental tolerances and replace one another progressively along environmental gradients. Fixed values of traits are assigned to each PFT; modelled trait variation along gradients is thus driven by PFT replacement. But empirical studies have revealed "universal" scaling relationships (quantitative trait variations with climate that are similar within and between species, PFTs and communities); and continuous, adaptive trait variation has been proposed to replace PFTs as the basis for next-generation DGVMs. Here we analyse quantitative leaf-trait variation on long temperature and moisture gradients in China with a view to understanding the relative importance of PFT replacement vs. continuous adaptive variation within PFTs. Leaf area (LA), specific leaf area (SLA), leaf dry matter content (LDMC) and nitrogen content of dry matter were measured on all species at 80 sites ranging from temperate to tropical climates and from dense forests to deserts. Chlorophyll fluorescence traits and carbon, phosphorus and potassium contents were measured at 47 sites. Generalized linear models were used to relate log-transformed trait values to growing-season temperature and moisture indices, with or without PFT identity as a predictor, and to test for differences in trait responses among PFTs. Continuous trait variation was found to be ubiquitous. Responses to moisture availability were generally similar within and between PFTs, but biophysical traits (LA, SLA and LDMC) of forbs and grasses responded differently from woody plants. SLA and LDMC responses to temperature were dominated by the prevalence of evergreen PFTs with thick, dense leaves at the warm end of the gradient. Nutrient (N, P and K) responses to climate gradients were generally similar within all PFTs. Area-based nutrients generally declined with moisture; Narea and Karea declined with temperature, but Parea increased with temperature. Although the adaptive nature of many of these trait-climate relationships is understood qualitatively, a key challenge for modelling is to predict them quantitatively. Models must take into account that community-level responses to climatic gradients can be influenced by shifts in PFT composition, such as the replacement of deciduous by evergreen trees, which may run either parallel or counter to trait variation within PFTs. The importance of PFT shifts varies among traits, being important for biophysical traits but less so for physiological and chemical traits. Finally, models should take account of the diversity of trait values that is found in all sites and PFTs, representing the "pool" of variation that is locally available for the natural adaptation of ecosystem function to environmental change.

Projecting social and discursive identities through code-switching on facebook: the case of Greek Cypriots

Two varieties of Greek are spoken on the island of Cyprus: the local dialect, namely the Greek-Cypriot Dialect (GCD), and Standard Modern Greek (SMG). English is also influential, as Cyprus was an English colony until 1960. The dialect is rarely employed for everyday written purposes; however, it is now evident in computer-mediated communication (CMC). As a contribution to the field of code-switching in writing, this study examines how Greek-Cypriot internet users employ GCD, SMG, and English in their Facebook interactions. In particular, we investigate how identities (discursive and social) are performed and indexed through the linguistic choices of Greek-Cypriot internet users. The findings indicate that switches to GCD add a humorous tone and express solidarity and informality. SMG is mostly used for ‘official’ statements, and it is preferred by mature internet users, while English is used with expressions of affect and evaluative comments.

Timing and nature of the penultimate deglaciation in a high alpine stalagmite from Switzerland

The timing and nature of the penultimate deglaciation, also known as Termination II (T-II), is subject of controversial discussions due to the scarcity of precisely-dated palaeoclimate records. Here we present a new precisely-dated and highly-resolved multi-proxy stalagmite record covering T-II from the high alpine Schafsloch Cave in Switzerland, an area where climate is governed by the North Atlantic. The inception of stalagmite growth at 137.4 ± 1.4 kyr before present (BP) indicates the presence of drip water and cave air temperatures of above 0°C, and is related to a climate-induced change in the thermal state (from cold- to warm-based) of the glacier above the cave. The cessation of stalagmite growth between 133.1 ± 0.7 and 131.9 ± 0.6 kyr BP is most likely related to distinct drop in temperature associated with Heinrich stadial 11. The resumption of stalagmite growth at 131.9 ± 0.6 kyr BP is accompanied by an abrupt increase in temperature and precipitation as indicated by distinct shifts in the oxygen and carbon isotopic composition as well as in trace element concentrations. The mid-point of T-II is around 131.8 ± 0.6 kyr BP in the Schafsloch Cave record is significantly earlier compared to the age of 129.1 ± 0.1 kyr BP in the Sanbao Cave record from China. The different ages between both records can be best explained by the competing effects of insolation and glacial boundary forcing on seasonality and snow cover extent in Eurasia.

Morphological properties of superclusters of galaxies

We studied superclusters of galaxies in a volume-limited sample extracted from the Sloan Digital Sky Survey Data Release 7 and from mock catalogues based on a semi-analytical model of galaxy evolution in the Millennium Simulation. A density field method was applied to a sample of galaxies brighter than M(r) = -21+5 log h(100) to identify superclusters, taking into account selection and boundary effects. In order to evaluate the influence of the threshold density, we have chosen two thresholds: the first maximizes the number of objects (D1) and the second constrains the maximum supercluster size to similar to 120 h(-1) Mpc (D2). We have performed a morphological analysis, using Minkowski Functionals, based on a parameter, which increases monotonically from filaments to pancakes. An anticorrelation was found between supercluster richness (and total luminosity or size) and the morphological parameter, indicating that filamentary structures tend to be richer, larger and more luminous than pancakes in both observed and mock catalogues. We have also used the mock samples to compare supercluster morphologies identified in position and velocity spaces, concluding that our morphological classification is not biased by the peculiar velocities. Monte Carlo simulations designed to investigate the reliability of our results with respect to random fluctuations show that these results are robust. Our analysis indicates that filaments and pancakes present different luminosity and size distributions.

Biogeography of Glandulocaudinae (Teleostei : Characiformes : Characidae) revisited: phylogenetic patterns, historical geology and genetic connectivity

The biogeography of the Glandulocaudinae ( former Glandulocaudini) is reviewed. The major pattern of diversification presented by this group of freshwater fishes can be clearly associated to the main aspects of the tectonic evolution of the southern portion of the Cis-Andean South American Platform. The phylogenetic relationships within the group suggest that the clade represented by Lophiobrycon is the sister-group of the more derived clade represented by the genus Glandulocauda and Mimagoniates. Lophiobrycon and Glandulocauda occur in areas of the ancient crystalline shield of southeastern Brazil and their present allopatric distribution is probably due to relict survival and tectonic vicariant events. Populations of Glandulocauda melanogenys are found in contiguous drainages in presently isolated upper parts of the Tiete, Guaratuba, Itatinga, and Ribeira de Iguape basins and this pattern of distribution is probably the result of river capture caused by tectonic processes that affected a large area in eastern and southeastern Brazil. The species of Mimagoniates are predominantly distributed along the eastern and southeastern coastal areas, but M. microlepis is additionally found in the rio Iguacu and Tibagi basins. Mimagoniates barberi occurs in both SW margin of the upper rio Parana basin and the lower Paraguay and Mimagoniates sp. occurs in the upper Paraguay river basin. Tectonic activations of the Continental Rift of Southeastern Brazil along the eastern margin of the Upper Parana basin promoted population fragmentation responsible of the present day distribution presented by Glandulocauda melanogenys. We hypothesize that occurrence of Mimagoniates along the lowland area around the Parana basin was due to a single or a multiple fragmentation of populations along the W-SW border of the upper Parana Basin, probably due to the major tectonic origin of the Chaco-Pantanal wetland foreland basins since the Miocene as well as Cenozoic tectonic activity along the borders of the upper Parana basin, such as in the eastern Paraguay, in the Asuncion Rift. Distributional pattern of Mimagoniates suggests that its initial diversification may be related to the tectonic evolution of the Chaco-Pantanal foreland basin system and a minimum age of 2.5 M.Y are proposed for this monophyletic group. Previous hypotheses on sea level fluctuations of the late Quaternary as being the main causal mechanism promoting cladogenesis and speciation of the group are critically reviewed. Phylogeographic studies based on molecular data indicate significant differences among the isolated populations of M. microlepis. These findings suggest that a much longer period of time and a paleogeographic landscape configuration of the Brazilian southeastern coastal region explain the present observed phylogenetic and biogeographic patterns.