Societal metabolism of societies: the bifurcation between Spain and Ecuador

This paper presents an application of the Multiple-Scale Integrated Assessment of Societal Metabolism to the recent economic history of Ecuador and Spain. Understanding the relationship between the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) and the throughput of matter and energy over time in modern societies is crucial for understanding the sustainability predicament as it is linked to economic growth. When considering the dynamics of economic development, Spain was able to take a different path than Ecuador thanks to the different characteristics of its energy budget and other key variables. This and other changes are described using economic and biophysical variables (both extensive and intensive referring to different hierarchical levels). The representation of these parallel changes (on different levels and describable only using different variables) can be kept in coherence by adopting the frame provided by MSIASM.

Enabling dCache to use preexistent mass storage systems

A mesura que la investigació depèn cada vegada més dels computadors, l'emmagatzematge de dades comença a convertir-se en un recurs escàs per als projectes, i suposa una gran part del cost total. Alguns projectes intenten resoldre aquest problema emprant emmagatzament distribuït. És doncs necessari que alguns centres proveeixin de grans quantitats d'emmagatzematge massiu de baix cost basat en cintes magnètiques. L'inconvenient d'aquesta solució és que el rendiment disminueix, particularment a l'hora de tractar-se de grans quantitats d'arxius petits. El nostre objectiu és crear un híbrid entre un sistema d'alt cost i rendiment basat en discs, i un de baix cost i rendiment basat en cintes. Per això, unirem dCache, un sistema d'emmagatzematge distribuït, amb Castor, un sistema d'emmagatzematge jeràrquic, creant sistemes de fitxers virtuals que contindran grans quantitats d'arxius petits per millorar el rendiment global del sistema.

Effects of selection and drift on G matrix evolution in a heterogeneous environment: a multivariate Qst-Fst Test with the freshwater snail Galba truncatula.

Unraveling the effect of selection vs. drift on the evolution of quantitative traits is commonly achieved by one of two methods. Either one contrasts population differentiation estimates for genetic markers and quantitative traits (the Q(st)-F(st) contrast) or multivariate methods are used to study the covariance between sets of traits. In particular, many studies have focused on the genetic variance-covariance matrix (the G matrix). However, both drift and selection can cause changes in G. To understand their joint effects, we recently combined the two methods into a single test (accompanying article by Martin et al.), which we apply here to a network of 16 natural populations of the freshwater snail Galba truncatula. Using this new neutrality test, extended to hierarchical population structures, we studied the multivariate equivalent of the Q(st)-F(st) contrast for several life-history traits of G. truncatula. We found strong evidence of selection acting on multivariate phenotypes. Selection was homogeneous among populations within each habitat and heterogeneous between habitats. We found that the G matrices were relatively stable within each habitat, with proportionality between the among-populations (D) and the within-populations (G) covariance matrices. The effect of habitat heterogeneity is to break this proportionality because of selection for habitat-dependent optima. Individual-based simulations mimicking our empirical system confirmed that these patterns are expected under the selective regime inferred. We show that homogenizing selection can mimic some effect of drift on the G matrix (G and D almost proportional), but that incorporating information from molecular markers (multivariate Q(st)-F(st)) allows disentangling the two effects.

Multifractal portrayal of the Swiss population

Fractal geometry is a fundamental approach for describing the complex irregularities of the spatial structure of point patterns. The present research characterizes the spatial structure of the Swiss population distribution in the three Swiss geographical regions (Alps, Plateau and Jura) and at the entire country level. These analyses were carried out using fractal and multifractal measures for point patterns, which enabled the estimation of the spatial degree of clustering of a distribution at different scales. The Swiss population dataset is presented on a grid of points and thus it can be modelled as a "point process" where each point is characterized by its spatial location (geometrical support) and a number of inhabitants (measured variable). The fractal characterization was performed by means of the box-counting dimension and the multifractal analysis was conducted through the Renyi's generalized dimensions and the multifractal spectrum. Results showed that the four population patterns are all multifractals and present different clustering behaviours. Applying multifractal and fractal methods at different geographical regions and at different scales allowed us to quantify and describe the dissimilarities between the four structures and their underlying processes. This paper is the first Swiss geodemographic study applying multifractal methods using high resolution data.

Genetic diversity and differentiation processes in the ploidy series of Olea europaea L.: a multiscale approach from subspecies to insular populations.

Geographical isolation and polyploidization are central concepts in plant evolution. The hierarchical organization of archipelagos in this study provides a framework for testing the evolutionary consequences for polyploid taxa and populations occurring in isolation. Using amplified fragment length polymorphism and simple sequence repeat markers, we determined the genetic diversity and differentiation patterns at three levels of geographical isolation in Olea europaea: mainland-archipelagos, islands within an archipelago, and populations within an island. At the subspecies scale, the hexaploid ssp. maroccana (southwest Morocco) exhibited higher genetic diversity than the insular counterparts. In contrast, the tetraploid ssp. cerasiformis (Madeira) displayed values similar to those obtained for the diploid ssp. guanchica (Canary Islands). Geographical isolation was associated with a high genetic differentiation at this scale. In the Canarian archipelago, the stepping-stone model of differentiation suggested in a previous study was partially supported. Within the western lineage, an east-to-west differentiation pattern was confirmed. Conversely, the easternmost populations were more related to the mainland ssp. europaea than to the western guanchica lineage. Genetic diversity across the Canarian archipelago was significantly correlated with the date of the last volcanic activity in the area/island where each population occurs. At the island scale, this pattern was not confirmed in older islands (Tenerife and Madeira), where populations were genetically homogeneous. In contrast, founder effects resulted in low genetic diversity and marked genetic differentiation among populations of the youngest island, La Palma.

Modeling U.S. Inflation Dynamics: A Bayesian Nonparametric Approach

This paper uses an infinite hidden Markov model (IIHMM) to analyze U.S. inflation dynamics with a particular focus on the persistence of inflation. The IHMM is a Bayesian nonparametric approach to modeling structural breaks. It allows for an unknown number of breakpoints and is a flexible and attractive alternative to existing methods. We found a clear structural break during the recent financial crisis. Prior to that, inflation persistence was high and fairly constant.

Does Semantic Context Benefit Speech Understanding through "Top-Down" Processes? Evidence from Time-resolved Sparse fMRI.

When speech is degraded, word report is higher for semantically coherent sentences (e.g., her new skirt was made of denim) than for anomalous sentences (e.g., her good slope was done in carrot). Such increased intelligibility is often described as resulting from "top-down" processes, reflecting an assumption that higher-level (semantic) neural processes support lower-level (perceptual) mechanisms. We used time-resolved sparse fMRI to test for top-down neural mechanisms, measuring activity while participants heard coherent and anomalous sentences presented in speech envelope/spectrum noise at varying signal-to-noise ratios (SNR). The timing of BOLD responses to more intelligible speech provides evidence of hierarchical organization, with earlier responses in peri-auditory regions of the posterior superior temporal gyrus than in more distant temporal and frontal regions. Despite Sentence content × SNR interactions in the superior temporal gyrus, prefrontal regions respond after auditory/perceptual regions. Although we cannot rule out top-down effects, this pattern is more compatible with a purely feedforward or bottom-up account, in which the results of lower-level perceptual processing are passed to inferior frontal regions. Behavioral and neural evidence that sentence content influences perception of degraded speech does not necessarily imply "top-down" neural processes.

Multilevel Modelling with Spatial Effects

In multilevel modelling, interest in modeling the nested structure of hierarchical data has been accompanied by increasing attention to different forms of spatial interactions across different levels of the hierarchy. Neglecting such interactions is likely to create problems of inference, which typically assumes independence. In this paper we review approaches to multilevel modelling with spatial effects, and attempt to connect the two literatures, discussing the advantages and limitations of various approaches.

The Corrosion of Career? - Occupational Trajectories of Business Economists and Engineers in Switzerland

Achievement careers are regarded as a distinctive element of the post-war period in occidental societies. Such a career was at once a modal trajectory of the modern parts of middleclass men and a social emblem for progress and success. However, if the achievement career came to be a biographical pattern with great normative power, its precise sequential course remained vague. Theories of the 1960s and 1970s described it as an orderly advancement within large firms. By the 1990s, scholars postulated an erosion of the organizational structures that once contributed to the institutionalization of careers, accompanied by a weakening of the normative weight of the achievement career by management discourse. We question the thesis of the corrosion of achievement career by analysing the trajectories of 442 engineers and business economists in Switzerland in regard to their orderliness, loyalty, and temporal rhythm. An inspection of types of careers and cohorts reveals that even if we face a decline of loyalty over time, hierarchical orderliness is not touched by those changes. Foremost, technical-industrial careers fit the loyal and regular pattern. Hence, this trajectory-type represents only a minority and is by far the slowest and least successful in terms of hierarchical ascension.

A bayesian spatial individual effects probit model of the 2010 UK general election

The Conservative Party emerged from the 2010 United Kingdom General Election as the largest single party, but their support was not geographically uniform. In this paper, we estimate a hierarchical Bayesian spatial probit model that tests for the presence of regional voting effects. This model allows for the estimation of individual region-specic effects on the probability of Conservative Party success, incorporating information on the spatial relationships between the regions of the mainland United Kingdom. After controlling for a range of important covariates, we find that these spatial relationships are significant and that our individual region-specic effects estimates provide additional evidence of North-South variations in Conservative Party support.

Expansió accelerada de l’univers i teories de gravetat modificada a grans escales

Estudi realitzat a partir d’una estada al Physics Department de la New York University, United States, Estats Units, entre 2006 i 2008. Una de les observacions de més impacte en la cosmologia moderna ha estat la determinació empírica que l’Univers es troba actualment en una fase d’Expansió Accelerada (EA). Aquest fenòmen implica que o bé l’Univers està dominat per un nou sector de matèria/energia, o bé la Relativitat General deixa de tenir validesa a escales cosmològiques. La primera possibilitat comprèn els models d’Energia Fosca (EF), i el seu principal problema és que l’EF ha de tenir propietats tan especials que es fan difícils de justificar teòricament. La segona possibilitat requereix la construcció de teories consistents de Gravetat Modificada a Grans Distàncies (GMGD), que són una generalització dels models de gravetat massiva. L’interès fenomenològic per aquestes teories també va resorgir amb l’aparició dels primers exemples de models de GMGD, com ara el model de Dvali, Gabadadze i Porrati (DGP), que consisteix en un tipus de brana en una dimensió extra. Malauradament, però, aquest model no permet explicar de forma consistent l’EA de l’Univers. Un dels objectius d’aquest projecte ha estat establir la viabilitat interna i fenomenològica dels models de GMGD. Des del punt de vista fenomenològic, ens hem centrat en la questió més important a la pràctica: trobar signatures observacionals que permetin distingir els models de GMGD dels d’EF. A nivell més teòric, també hem investigat el significat de les inestabilitats del model DGP.L’altre gran objectiu que ens vam proposar va ser la construcció de noves teories de GMGD. En la segona part d’aquest projecte, hem elaborat i mostrat la consistència del model “DGP en Cascada”, que generalitza el model DGP a més dimensions extra, i representa el segon model consistent i invariant-Lorentz a l’espai pla conegut. L’existència d’altres models de GMGD més enllà de DGP és de gran interès atès que podria permetre obtenir l’EA de l’Univers de forma purament geomètrica.

Patient and physician gender concordance in preventive care in university primary care settings.

OBJECTIVE: To assess the quality of preventive care according to physician and patient gender in a country with universal health care coverage. METHODS: We assessed a retrospective cohort study of 1001 randomly selected patients aged 50-80years followed over 2years (2005-2006) in 4 Swiss university primary care settings (Basel, Geneva, Lausanne, Zürich). We used indicators derived from RAND's Quality Assessment Tools and examined percentages of recommended preventive care. Results were adjusted using hierarchical multivariate logistic regression models. RESULTS: 1001 patients (44% women) were followed by 189 physicians (52% women). Female patients received less preventive care than male patients (65.2% vs. 72.1%, p<0.001). Female physicians provided significantly more preventive care than male physicians (p=0.01) to both female (66.7% vs. 63.6%) and male patients (73.4% vs. 70.7%). After multivariate adjustment, differences according to physician (p=0.02) and patient gender (p<0.001) remained statistically significant. Female physicians provided more recommended cancer screening than male physicians (78.4 vs. 71.9%, p=0.01). CONCLUSIONS: In Swiss university primary care settings, female patients receive less preventive care than male patients, with female physicians providing more preventive care than male physicians. Greater attention should be paid to female patients in preventive care and to why female physicians tend to provide better preventive care.

Income stratification and the measurement of interdistributional inequality between multiple groups

This paper proposes a new class of stratification indices that measure interdistributional inequality between multiple groups. The class is based on a conceptualisation of stratification as a process that results in a hierarchical ordering of groups and therefore seeks to capture not only the extent to which groups form well-defined strata in the income distribution but also the scale of the resultant differences in income standards between them, where these two factors play the same role as identification and alienation respectively in the measurement of polarisation. The properties of the class as a whole are investigated as well as those of selected members of it: zeroth and first power indices may be interpreted as measuring the overall incidence and depth of stratification respectively, while higher power indices members are directly sensitive to the severity of stratification between groups. An illustrative application provides an empirical analysis of global income stratification by regions in 1993.

Co-Movement, Spillovers and Excess Returns in Global Bond Markets

This paper investigates global term structure dynamics using a Bayesian hierarchical factor model augmented with macroeconomic fundamentals. More than half of the variation in bond yields of seven advanced economies is due to global co-movement, which is mainly attributed to shocks to non-fundamentals. Global fundamentals, especially global inflation, affect yields through a ‘policy channel’ and a ‘risk compensation channel’, but the effects through two channels are offset. This evidence explains the unsatisfactory performance of fundamentals-driven term structure models. Our approach delineates asymmetric spillovers in global bond markets connected to diverging monetary policies. The proposed model is robust as identified factors has significant explanatory power of excess returns. The finding that global inflation uncertainty is useful in explaining realized excess returns does not rule out regime changing as a source of non-fundamental fluctuations.

A multi-purpose grammar generating a multi-scale integrated analysis of Laos

In this study we propose an application of the MuSIASEM approach which is used to provide an integrated analysis of Laos across different scales. With the term “integrated analysis across scales” we mean the generation of a series of packages of quantitative indicators, characterizing the performance of the socioeconomic activities performed in Laos when considering: (i) different hierarchical levels of organization (farming systems described at the level of household, rural villages, regions of Laos, the whole country level); and (ii) different dimensions of analysis (economic dimension, social dimension, ecological dimension, technical dimension). What is relevant in this application is that the information carried out by these different packages of indicators is integrated in a system of accounting which establishes interlinkages across these indicators. This is a essential feature to study sustainability trade-offs and to build more robust scenarios of possible changes. The multi-scale integrated representation presented in this study is based on secondary data (gathered in a three year EU project – SEAtrans and integrated by other available statistical sources) and it is integrated in GIS, when dealing with the spatial representation of Laos. However, even if we use data referring to Laos, the goal of this study is not that of providing useful information about a practical policy issue of Laos, but rather, to illustrate the possibility of using a multipurpose grammar to produce an integrated set of sustainability indicators at three different levels: (i) local; (ii) meso; (iii) macro level. The technical issue addressed is the simultaneous adoption of two multi-level matrices – one referring to a characterization of human activity over a set of different categories, and another referring to a characterization of land uses over the same set of categories. In this way, it becomes possible to explain the characteristics of Laos (an integrated set of indicators defining the performance of the whole country) in relation to the characteristics of the rural Laos and urban Laos. The characteristics of rural Laos, can be explained using the characteristics of three regions defined within Laos (Northern Laos, Central Laos and Southern Laos), which in turn can be defined (using an analogous package of indicators), starting from the characteristics of three main typologies of farming systems found in the regions.