A methodology to estimate uncertainty for emission projections through sensitivity analysis

Air pollution abatement policies must be based on quantitative information on current and future emissions of pollutants. As emission projections uncertainties are inevitable and traditional statistical treatments of uncertainty are highly time/resources consuming, a simplified methodology for nonstatistical uncertainty estimation based on sensitivity analysis is presented in this work. The methodology was applied to the “with measures” scenario for Spain, concretely over the 12 highest emitting sectors regarding greenhouse gas and air pollutants emissions. Examples of methodology application for two important sectors (power plants, and agriculture and livestock) are shown and explained in depth. Uncertainty bands were obtained up to 2020 by modifying the driving factors of the 12 selected sectors and the methodology was tested against a recomputed emission trend in a low economic-growth perspective and official figures for 2010, showing a very good performance. Implications: A solid understanding and quantification of uncertainties related to atmospheric emission inventories and projections provide useful information for policy negotiations. However, as many of those uncertainties are irreducible, there is an interest on how they could be managed in order to derive robust policy conclusions. Taking this into account, a method developed to use sensitivity analysis as a source of information to derive nonstatistical uncertainty bands for emission projections is presented and applied to Spain. This method simplifies uncertainty assessment and allows other countries to take advantage of their sensitivity analyses.

A common-sense climate index: Is climate changing noticeably?

We propose an index of climate change based on practical climate indicators such as heating degree days and the frequency of intense precipitation. We find that in most regions the index is positive, the sense predicted to accompany global warming. In a few regions, especially in Asia and western North America, the index indicates that climate change should be apparent already, but in most places climate trends are too small to stand out above year-to-year variability. The climate index is strongly correlated with global surface temperature, which has increased as rapidly as projected by climate models in the 1980s. We argue that the global area with obvious climate change will increase notably in the next few years. But we show that the growth rate of greenhouse gas climate forcing has declined in recent years, and thus there is an opportunity to keep climate change in the 21st century less than “business-as-usual” scenarios.

Can ozone depletion and global warming interact to produce rapid climate change?

The atmosphere displays modes of variability whose structures exhibit a strong longitudinally symmetric (annular) component that extends from the surface to the stratosphere in middle and high latitudes of both hemispheres. In the past 30 years, these modes have exhibited trends that seem larger than their natural background variability, and may be related to human influences on stratospheric ozone and/or atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations. The pattern of climate trends during the past few decades is marked by rapid cooling and ozone depletion in the polar lower stratosphere of both hemispheres, coupled with an increasing strength of the wintertime westerly polar vortex and a poleward shift of the westerly wind belt at the earth's surface. Annular modes of variability are fundamentally a result of internal dynamical feedbacks within the climate system, and as such can show a large response to rather modest external forcing. The dynamics and thermodynamics of these modes are such that strong synergistic interactions between stratospheric ozone depletion and greenhouse warming are possible. These interactions may be responsible for the pronounced changes in tropospheric and stratospheric climate observed during the past few decades. If these trends continue, they could have important implications for the climate of the 21st century.

Wheat leaves emit nitrous oxide during nitrate assimilation

Nitrous oxide (N2O) is a key atmospheric greenhouse gas that contributes to global climatic change through radiative warming and depletion of stratospheric ozone. In this report, N2O flux was monitored simultaneously with photosynthetic CO2 and O2 exchanges from intact canopies of 12 wheat seedlings. The rates of N2O-N emitted ranged from <2 pmol⋅m−2⋅s−1 when NH\documentclass[12pt]{minimal} \usepackage{amsmath} \usepackage{wasysym} \usepackage{amsfonts} \usepackage{amssymb} \usepackage{amsbsy} \usepackage{mathrsfs} \setlength{\oddsidemargin}{-69pt} \begin{document} \begin{equation*}{\mathrm{_{4}^{+}}}\end{equation*}\end{document} was the N source, to 25.6 ± 1.7 pmol⋅m−2⋅s−1 (mean ± SE, n = 13) when the N source was shifted to NO\documentclass[12pt]{minimal} \usepackage{amsmath} \usepackage{wasysym} \usepackage{amsfonts} \usepackage{amssymb} \usepackage{amsbsy} \usepackage{mathrsfs} \setlength{\oddsidemargin}{-69pt} \begin{document} \begin{equation*}{\mathrm{_{3}^{-}}}\end{equation*}\end{document}. Such fluxes are among the smallest reported for any trace gas emitted by a higher plant. Leaf N2O emissions were correlated with leaf nitrate assimilation activity, as measured by using the assimilation quotient, the ratio of CO2 assimilated to O2 evolved. 15N isotopic signatures on N2O emitted from leaves supported direct N2O production by plant NO\documentclass[12pt]{minimal} \usepackage{amsmath} \usepackage{wasysym} \usepackage{amsfonts} \usepackage{amssymb} \usepackage{amsbsy} \usepackage{mathrsfs} \setlength{\oddsidemargin}{-69pt} \begin{document} \begin{equation*}{\mathrm{_{3}^{-}}}\end{equation*}\end{document} assimilation and not N2O produced by microorganisms on root surfaces and emitted in the transpiration stream. In vitro production of N2O by both intact chloroplasts and nitrite reductase, but not by nitrate reductase, indicated that N2O produced by leaves occurred during photoassimilation of NO\documentclass[12pt]{minimal} \usepackage{amsmath} \usepackage{wasysym} \usepackage{amsfonts} \usepackage{amssymb} \usepackage{amsbsy} \usepackage{mathrsfs} \setlength{\oddsidemargin}{-69pt} \begin{document} \begin{equation*}{\mathrm{_{2}^{-}}}\end{equation*}\end{document} in the chloroplast. Given the large quantities of NO\documentclass[12pt]{minimal} \usepackage{amsmath} \usepackage{wasysym} \usepackage{amsfonts} \usepackage{amssymb} \usepackage{amsbsy} \usepackage{mathrsfs} \setlength{\oddsidemargin}{-69pt} \begin{document} \begin{equation*}{\mathrm{_{3}^{-}}}\end{equation*}\end{document} assimilated by plants in the terrestrial biosphere, these observations suggest that formation of N2O during NO\documentclass[12pt]{minimal} \usepackage{amsmath} \usepackage{wasysym} \usepackage{amsfonts} \usepackage{amssymb} \usepackage{amsbsy} \usepackage{mathrsfs} \setlength{\oddsidemargin}{-69pt} \begin{document} \begin{equation*}{\mathrm{_{2}^{-}}}\end{equation*}\end{document} photoassimilation could be an important global biogenic N2O source.

Impactos de regulações ambientais sobre o transporte de cargas no Brasil: uma análise para o transporte de soja

O aumento da concentração de gases de efeito estufa na atmosfera levou a uma preocupação de como se reduzir as emissões destes gases. Desta preocupação surgiram instrumentos de regulação a fim de reduzir ou controlar os níveis de poluição. Dentro deste contexto, esta pesquisa analisou o setor de transportes de cargas, com ênfase no transporte de soja. No Brasil, o setor de transportes é um dos principais responsáveis pelas emissões de gases de efeito estufa provenientes da queima de combustíveis fósseis. No setor de transportes, as emissões diferem entre os modais, sendo que as ferrovias e hidrovias poluem menos que as rodovias. Desta forma, simulou-se por meio de um modelo de programação linear se a adoção de medidas regulatórias sobre as emissões de CO2 traria uma alteração no uso das ferrovias e hidrovias. Uma das constatações, ao se utilizar o modelo de Minimização de Fluxo de Custo Mínimo para o transporte de soja em 2013, foi que a capacidade de embarque nos terminais ferroviários e hidroviários desempenha um papel fundamental na redução das emissões de CO2. Se não houver capacidade suficiente, a adoção de uma taxa pode não provocar a redução das emissões. No caso do sistema de compra e crédito de carbono, seria necessária a compra de créditos de carbono, numa situação em que a capacidade de embarque nos terminais intermodais seja limitada. Verificou-se, ainda, que melhorias na infraestrutura podem desempenhar um papel mitigador das emissões. Um aumento da capacidade dos terminais ferroviários e hidroviários existentes, bem como o aumento da capacidade dos portos, pode provocar a redução das emissões de CO2. Se os projetos de expansão das ferrovias e hidrovias desenvolvidos por órgãos governamentais saírem do papel, pode-se chegar a uma redução de pouco mais de 50% das emissões de CO2. Consideraram-se ainda quais seriam os efeitos do aumento do uso de biodiesel como combustível e percebeu-se que seria possível obter reduções tanto das emissões quanto do custo de transporte. Efeitos semelhantes foram encontrados quando se simulou um aumento da eficiência energética. Por fim, percebeu-se nesta pesquisa que a adoção de uma taxa não traria tantos benefícios, econômicos e ambientais, quanto a melhoria da infraestrutura logística do país.

Nitrato na dieta de ruminantes como estratégia nutricional para mitigação de metano entérico

A produção de metano entérico está entre as principais fontes de emissão de gases de efeito estufa dentre as atividades agropecuárias, além de gerar perda energética ao animal de até 12% da energia bruta consumida. Assim, o objetivo deste trabalho foi avaliar o uso de nitrato de cálcio encapsulado na alimentação de ruminantes como estratégia nutricional a mitigação de metano entérico. O experimento consistiu de duas fases. Fase I: Foram testadas dietas suplementadas com produto comercial de nitrato de cálcio encapsulado utilizando a técnica semiautomática de produção de gases in vitro. Meio grama de substrato com 50 mL de meio de incubação e 25 mL de inóculo ruminal foram incubados em frascos de vidro (160 mL) à 39 ºC por 24 horas para determinação da melhor dieta a ser testada in vivo. O primeiro ensaio testou a associação entre a monensina (dietas com e sem adição de monensina) e doses de nitrato encapsulado (0; 1,5 e 3% da matéria seca (MS)) para mitigação de metano in vitro. Não foi observada interação entre monensina e nitrato para as variáveis testadas. O segundo ensaio in vitro testou a interação do tipo de dieta com duas relações concentrado:volumoso, 20:80 e 80:20, e a inclusão de doses de nitrato encapsulado (0; 1,5; 3 e 4,5% MS). Embora não foi observado efeito associativo entre dieta e nitrato para redução de metano, foi observada mudança nos produtos da fermentação ruminal, com redução de propionato, em decorrência da concorrência de nitrato e propianogênicas por hidrogênio mais escasso em dietas com menor fermentação. Fase II: Conforme os resultados obtidos na Fase I, na segunda fase foi avaliado o efeito associativo da relação de concentrado:volumoso da dieta e a dose de nitrato sobre a emissão de metano, constituintes ruminais e toxicidade do nitrato in vivo. Utilizou-se seis borregos canulados no rúmen, distribuídos em delineamento experimental quadrado latino 6 x 6, em fatorial 2 x 3. Os fatores foram tipo de dieta (relação concentrado:volumoso 20:80 e 80:20) e inclusão de doses de nitrato encapsulado na dieta (0; 1,5 e 3% MS) em substituição gradual ao farelo de soja, totalizando seis tratamentos. Os teores de substituição do farelo de soja pelo nitrato foram em equivalente proteico de maneira a deixar as dietas isonitrogenadas. Os animais foram adaptados gradualmente a oferta de nitrato dietético para evitar problemas com toxidez. A análise de toxicidade foi avaliada pela taxa de metahemoglobina no sangue dos ovinos 3 horas após a alimentação. Nitrato reduziu a produção de metano em ambas as dietas. Os níveis de metahemoglobina no sangue dos animais não foram alterados pela adição de nitrato. Foi observado efeito associativo entre o tipo de dieta e nitrato para os produtos da fermentação ruminal, como acetato, que aumentou linearmente nas dietas com 80% de concentrado quando nitrato foi adicionado. Concluí-se que nitrato, utilizado de forma segura, é uma promissora estratégia para redução de metano entérico independentemente do tipo de dieta com que está sendo suplementado

Estudo sobre aproveitamento de resíduos sólidos dispostos em aterros sanitários visando seu aproveitamento energético

Equacionar a problemática do aumento da geração de resíduos sólidos é tarefa complexa, que envolve entre outras, questões de ordem ambiental, de saúde pública e econômica. Quando se trata de disposição final de resíduos sólidos, o aterro sanitário é a única técnica utilizada ambientalmente correta, porém ainda são poucas as cidades que a emprega. Espera-se que nos próximos anos, aumente o número de municípios com aterro sanitário e deste modo, surge um outro problema de cunho ambiental, e em nível mais global, que se refere aos gases liberados pelos aterros sanitários, durante a decomposição anaeróbia da parte orgânica dos resíduos. Estão entre estes gases, o dióxido de carbono e o metano, que contribuem para o efeito estufa. Se por um lado o metano é prejudicial, quando se trata de efeito estufa, por outro lado, pode ser utilizado para fins energéticos como fonte de energia renovável e justamente substituindo os combustíveis fósseis, que representam a maior fonte dos chamados gases de efeito estufa. O presente trabalho, tem como objetivo inicial, levantar as alternativas para o uso de gases de aterro sanitário como fonte de energia, em um segundo momento do trabalho, relacionar as fases da digestão anaeróbia com a produção de metano, através da análise de amostras coletadas em diferentes pontos e profundidades do aterro do município de Piracicaba/SP.

An Analysis of U.S. Air Force Policy and Installation CO2 Emissions to Determine Best Practices for the Implementation of Executive Order 13514

United States Air Force (USAF) energy policy is a measured but aggressive response to federal energy policy guidance. Previous USAF efforts, like those of the federal government, focused primarily on energy intensity reduction, cost, and BTU savings, and in certain cases have resulted in facility greenhouse gas (GHG) emission reductions. The USAF now faces the challenge of integrating GHG reduction goals and inventory requirements set forth in Executive Order 13514. Using USAF reported energy consumption data, facility GHG emission estimates have been synthesized to identify trends and elucidate existing energy best practices to be applied as part of overarching USAF GHG mitigation efforts and to highlight areas of possible concern for the integration of EO 13514 into operational USAF policy.

Trees as Tools in Environmental Improvement; An Analysis of the Contribution of Vegetation to Energy and Water Conservation in the Front Range of Colorado

The Denver metropolitan area is facing rapid population growth that increases the stress on already limited resources. Research and advanced computer modeling show that trees, especially those in urban areas, have significant environmental benefits. These benefits include air quality improvements, energy savings, greenhouse gas reduction, and possible water conservation. This Capstone Project applies statistical methods to analyze a small data set of residential homes and their energy and water consumption, as a function of their individual landscape. Results indicate that tree shade can influence water conservation, and that irrigation methods can be an influential factor as well. The Capstone is a preliminary analysis for future study to be performed by the Institute for Environmental Solutions in 2007.

Recommendations for Creating and Implementing Climate Change Mitigation Strategies for Municipalities

The effects of climate change are beginning to show themselves globally and not enough is being done to counteract these changes. Institutional action is a necessity, and municipalities have an opportunity to fill this void by developing mitigation strategies that will reduce greenhouse gas emissions. This report critically reviews the municipal climate action plans for Portland, Oregon; Boulder, Colorado; and Toronto, Ontario and provides recommendations for other municipalities who wish to create and implement climate change mitigation plans.

A Comparison of the Impacts of Lithium Extraction and Lithium Recycling Processes

Lithium is used in the cathode and electrolyte of rechargeable batteries in many portable electronics and electric vehicles, and is thus seen as a critical component of modern technology (Gruber et al., 2011). Electric vehicles are promoted as a way to reduce carbon emissions associated with the transportation sector, which accounts for 14.3% of anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions (OECD International Transport Forum, 2010). However, the sustainability of lithium procurement will influence the overall environmental impact of this proposed “green” solution. It is estimated that 66% of the world’s lithium resource is contained in natural brines, 24% in pegmatites, and 8% in sedimentary rocks such as hectorite clays (Gruber et al., 2011). It has been shown that “[r]ecycling of lithium from Li-ion batteries may be a critical factor in balancing the supply of lithium with future demand” (Gruber et al., 2011). In an attempt to quantify energy and materials consumption associated with production of a unit of useful lithium compounds, industry reports and peer-reviewed scientific literature concerning lithium mining and lithium recycling were reviewed and compared. Other aspects of sustainability, such as waste or by-products produced in the production of a unit of useful lithium, were also explored. Thus, this paper will serve to further the evaluation of the comparative environmental consequences associated with lithium production via extraction versus recycling. Efficiencies must be made in both processes to maximize productivity while minimizing ecological harm.

An Assessment of US Progress towards its Pledge on Climate Change Mitigation. CEPS ECP Report No. 12, 15 October 2012

In 2009, President Obama pledged that, by 2020, the United States would achieve reductions in greenhouse gas emissions of 17% from 2005 levels. With the failure of Congress to adopt comprehensive climate legislation in 2010, the feasibility of the pledge was put in doubt. However, we find that the United States is near to reaching this goal: the country is currently on course to achieve reductions of 16.3% from 2005 levels in 2020. Three factors contribute to this outcome: greenhouse gas regulations under the Clean Air Act, secular trends including changes in relative fuel prices and energy efficiency and sub-national efforts. Perhaps even more surprising, domestic emissions are probably lower than would have been the case if the Waxman-Markey cap-and-trade proposal had become law in 2010. At this point, however, the United States is expected to fail to meet its financing commitments under the Copenhagen Accord for 2020.

You'd better bet on the ETS. Bruegel Policy Brief 2013/02, April 2013

The issue: The European Union's emissions trading system (ETS), introduced in 2005, is the centerpiece of EU decarbonisation efforts and the biggest emissions trading scheme in the world. After a peak in May 2008, the price of ETS carbon allowances started to collapse, and industry, civil society and policymakers began to think about how to ‘repair the ETS’. However, the ETS is an effective and efficient tool to mitigate greenhouse gas emissions, and although prices have not been stable, it has evolved to cover more sectors and greenhouse gases, and to become more robust and less distorting. Prices are depressed because of an interplay of fundamental factors and a lack of confidence in the system. Policy challenge The ETS must be stabilised by reinforcing the credibility of the system so that the use of existing low-carbon alternatives (for example burning gas instead of coal) is incentivised and investment in low-carbon assets is ensured. Further-more, failure to reinvigorate the ETS might compromise the cost-effective synchronisation of European decarbonisation efforts across sectors and countries. To restore credibility and to ensure long-term commitment to the ETS, the European Investment Bank should auction guarantees on the future emission allowance price.This will reduce the risk for low-carbon investments and enable stabilisation of the ETS until a compromise is found on structural measures to reinforce it in order to achieve the EU's long-term decarbonisation targets.

The Potential Evolution of the European Energy System to 2020 and 2050. CEPS Working Document No. 392, 26 March 2014

This paper assesses the impact of decarbonisation of the energy sector on employment in Europe. Setting the stage for such an assessment, the paper provides an analysis of possible pathways to decarbonise Europe’s energy system, taking into account EU greenhouse gas emissions reduction targets for 2020 and 2050. It pays particular attention to various low-carbon technologies that could be deployed in different regions of the EU. It concludes that efficiency and renewables play a major role in any decarbonisation scenario and that the power sector is the main enabler for the transition to a low-carbon economy in Europe, despite rising electricity demand. The extent of the decline in the share of fossil fuels will largely depend on the existence of carbon capture and storage (CCS), which remains a major source of uncertainty.

A European response to the resource and climate challenge. CHALLENGE EUROPE Issue 22 - Challenges and new beginnings: Priorities for the EU's new leadership, September 2014

The 20th Century was characterised by growth: the world population grew by four times and its economic output grew by 40 times. At the same time, the resource use and greenhouse gas emissions increased drastically. Only within the last two decades, the worldwide extraction of resources increased by over 50%. With the expectation that the demand of resources will triple by 2050 and the demand for food, feed and fibre is projected to increase by 70%, there is no doubt that we will exceed our planet's boundaries, the safe thresholds within which humanity can continue to develop and thrive for generations to come. Crossing these boundaries could generate abrubt or irreversible environmental changes. Respecting them reduces the risk that human society and ecosystems will face irreversible damages.