Global impacts of the 1980s regime shift

Despite evidence from a number of Earth systems that abrupt temporal changes known as regime shifts are important, their nature, scale and mechanisms remain poorly documented and understood. Applying principal component analysis, change-point analysis and a sequential t-test analysis of regime shifts to 72 time series, we confirm that the 1980s regime shift represented a major change in the Earth's biophysical systems from the upper atmosphere to the depths of the ocean and from the Arctic to the Antarctic, and occurred at slightly different times around the world. Using historical climate model simulations from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) and statistical modelling of historical temperatures, we then demonstrate that this event was triggered by rapid global warming from anthropogenic plus natural forcing, the latter associated with the recovery from the El Chichón volcanic eruption. The shift in temperature that occurred at this time is hypothesized as the main forcing for a cascade of abrupt environmental changes. Within the context of the last century or more, the 1980s event was unique in terms of its global scope and scale; our observed consequences imply that if unavoidable natural events such as major volcanic eruptions interact with anthropogenic warming unforeseen multiplier effects may occur.

Global impacts of the 1980s regime shift

Despite evidence from a number of Earth systems that abrupt temporal changes known as regime shifts are important, their nature, scale and mechanisms remain poorly documented and understood. Applying principal component analysis, change-point analysis and a sequential t-test analysis of regime shifts to 72 time series, we confirm that the 1980s regime shift represented a major change in the Earth's biophysical systems from the upper atmosphere to the depths of the ocean and from the Arctic to the Antarctic, and occurred at slightly different times around the world. Using historical climate model simulations from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) and statistical modelling of historical temperatures, we then demonstrate that this event was triggered by rapid global warming from anthropogenic plus natural forcing, the latter associated with the recovery from the El Chichón volcanic eruption. The shift in temperature that occurred at this time is hypothesized as the main forcing for a cascade of abrupt environmental changes. Within the context of the last century or more, the 1980s event was unique in terms of its global scope and scale; our observed consequences imply that if unavoidable natural events such as major volcanic eruptions interact with anthropogenic warming unforeseen multiplier effects may occur.

Ecological effects of flow and temperature regimes on fish communities in temperate rivers

Les organismes aquatiques sont adaptés à une grande variabilité hydrique et thermique des rivières. Malgré ceci, la régulation des eaux suscite des changements aux débits qui peuvent provoquer des impacts négatifs sur la biodiversité et les processus écologiques en rivière. Celle-ci peut aussi causer des modifications au niveau des régimes thermiques et des caractéristiques de l’habitat du poisson. Des données environnementales et biologiques décrivant l’habitat du poisson existent, mais elles sont incomplètes pour plusieurs rivières au Canada et de faible qualité, limitant les relations quantitatives débit-température-poissons à un petit nombre de rivières ou à une région étudiée. La recherche menée dans le cadre de mon doctorat concerne les impacts de la génération d'hydroélectricité sur les rivières; soit les changements aux régimes hydriques et thermiques reliés à la régulation des eaux sur la variation des communautés ichtyologiques qui habitent les rivières régulées et naturelles au Canada. Suite à une comparaison d’échantillonnage de pêche, une méthode constante pour obtenir des bons estimés de poisson (richesse, densité et biomasse des espèces) a été établie pour évaluer la structure de la communauté de poissons pour l’ensemble des rivières ciblées par l’étude. Afin de mieux comprendre ces changements environnementaux, les principales composantes décrivant ces régimes ont été identifiées et l’altération des régimes hydriques pour certaines rivières régulées a été quantifiée. Ces résultats ont servi à établir la relation significative entre le degré de changement biotique et le degré de changement hydrique pour illustrer les différences entre les régimes de régulation. Pour faire un complément aux indices biotiques déjà calculés pour l’ensemble des communautés de poissons (diversité, densité et biomasse des espèces par rivière), les différences au niveau des guildes de poissons ont été quantifiées pour expliquer les divers effets écologiques dus aux changements de régimes hydriques et thermiques provenant de la gestion des barrages. Ces derniers résultats servent à prédire pour quels traits écologiques ou groupes d’espèces de poissons les composantes hydriques et thermiques sont importantes. De plus, ces derniers résultats ont servi à mettre en valeur les variables décrivant les régimes thermiques qui ne sont pas toujours inclues dans les études hydro-écologiques. L’ensemble des résultats de cette thèse ont des retombées importantes sur la gestion des rivières en évaluant, de façon cohérente, l’impact de la régulation des rivières sur les communautés de poissons et en développant des outils de prévision pour la restauration des écosystèmes riverains.

Estimates of global sources and sinks of carbon from land cover and land use changes

The distribution of sources and sinks of carbon over the land surface is dominated by changes in land use such as deforestation, reforestation, and agricultural management. Despite, the importance of land-use change in dominating long-term net terrestrial fluxes of carbon, estimates of the annual flux are uncertain relative to other terms in the global carbon budget. The interaction of the nitrogen cycle via atmospheric N inputs and N limitation with the carbon cycle contributes to the uncertain effect of land use change on terrestrial carbon uptake. This study uses two different land use datasets to force the geographically explicit terrestrial carbon-nitrogen coupled component of the Integrated Science Assessment Model (ISAM) to examine the response of terrestrial carbon stocks to historical LCLUC (cropland, pastureland and wood harvest) while accounting for changes in N deposition, atmospheric CO2 and climate. One of the land use datasets is based on satellite data (SAGE) while the other uses population density maps (HYDE), which allows this study to investigate how global LCLUC data construction can affect model estimated emissions. The timeline chosen for this study starts before the Industrial Revolution in 1765 to the year 2000 because of the influence of rising population and economic development on regional LCLUC. Additionally, this study evaluates the impact that resulting secondary forests may have on terrestrial carbon uptake. The ISAM model simulations indicate that uncertainties in net terrestrial carbon fluxes during the 1990s are largely due to uncertainties in regional LCLUC data. Also results show that secondary forests increase the terrestrial carbon sink but secondary tropical forests carbon uptake are constrained due to nutrient limitation.

Global change and climate-driven invasion of the Pacific oyster (Crassostrea gigas) along European coasts: a bioenergetics modelling approach

Aim The spread of non-indigenous species in marine ecosystems world-wide is one of today's most serious environmental concerns. Using mechanistic modelling, we investigated how global change relates to the invasion of European coasts by a non-native marine invertebrate, the Pacific oyster Crassostrea gigas. Location Bourgneuf Bay on the French Atlantic coast was considered as the northern boundary of C. gigas expansion at the time of its introduction to Europe in the 1970s. From this latitudinal reference, variations in the spatial distribution of the C. gigas reproductive niche were analysed along the north-western European coast from Gibraltar to Norway. Methods The effects of environmental variations on C. gigas physiology and phenology were studied using a bioenergetics model based on Dynamic Energy Budget theory. The model was forced with environmental time series including in situ phytoplankton data, and satellite data of sea surface temperature and suspended particulate matter concentration. Results Simulation outputs were successfully validated against in situ oyster growth data. In Bourgneuf Bay, the rise in seawater temperature and phytoplankton concentration has increased C. gigas reproductive effort and led to precocious spawning periods since the 1960s. At the European scale, seawater temperature increase caused a drastic northward shift (1400 km within 30 years) in the C. gigas reproductive niche and optimal thermal conditions for early life stage development. Main conclusions We demonstrated that the poleward expansion of the invasive species C. gigas is related to global warming and increase in phytoplankton abundance. The combination of mechanistic bioenergetics modelling with in situ and satellite environmental data is a valuable framework for ecosystem studies. It offers a generic approach to analyse historical geographical shifts and to predict the biogeographical changes expected to occur in a climate-changing world.

The study of correlation between sea surface temperature (SST) by using the NOAA-AVHRR data and compare this data with temperature measurement in the Caspian Sea

The changes in time and location of surface temperature from a water body has an important effect on climate activities, marine biology, sea currents, salinity and other characteristics of the seas and lakes water. Traditional measurement of temperature is costly and time consumer due to its dispersion and instability. In recent years the use of satellite technology and remote sensing sciences for data acquiring and parameter and lysis of climatology and oceanography is well developed. In this research we used the NOAA’s Satellite images from its AVHRR system to compare the field surface temperature data with the satellite images information. Ten satellite images were used in this project. These images were calibrated with the field data at the exact time of satellite pass above the area. The result was a significant relation between surface temperatures from satellite data with the field work. As the relative error less than %40 between these two data is acceptable, therefore in our observation the maximum error is %21.2 that can be considered it as acceptable. In all stations the result of satellite measurements is usually less than field data that cores ponds with the global result too. As this sea has a vast latitude, therefore the different in the temperature is natural. But we know this factor is not the only cause for surface currents. The information of all satellites were images extracted by ERDAS software, and the “Surfer” software is used to plot the isotherm lines.

On the interaction of bovine serum albumin with ionic surfactants: Temperature induced EPR changes of a maleimide nitroxide reflect local protein dynamics and probe solvent accessibility

The interaction of bovine serum albumin (BSA) with the ionic surfactants sodium dodecylsulfate (SDS, anionic), cetyltrimethylammonium chloride (CTAC, cationic) and N-hexadecyl-N,N-dimethyl-3-ammonio-1-propanesulfonate (HPS, zwitterionic) was studied by electron paramagnetic resonance (EPR) spectroscopy of spin label covalently bound to the single free thiol group of the protein. EPR spectra simulation allows to monitor the protein dynamics at the labeling site and to estimate the changes in standard Gibbs free energy, enthalpy and entropy for transferring the nitroxide side chain from the more motionally restricted to the less restricted component. Whereas SDS and CTAC showed similar increases in the dynamics of the protein backbone for all measured concentrations. HPS presented a smaller effect at concentrations above 1.5 mM. At 10 mM of surfactants and 0.15 mM BSA, the standard Gibbs free energy change was consistent with protein backbone conformations more expanded and exposed to the solvent as compared to the native protein, but with a less pronounced effect for HPS. In the presence of the surfactants, the enthalpy change, related to the energy required to dissociate the nitroxide side chain from the protein, was greater, suggesting a lower water activity. The nitroxide side chain also detected a higher viscosity environment in the vicinity of the paramagnetic probe induced by the addition of the surfactants. The results suggest that the surfactant-BSA interaction, at higher surfactant concentration, is affected by the affinities of the surfactant to its own micelles and micelle-like aggregates. Complementary DLS data suggests that the temperature induced changes monitored by the nitroxide probe reflects local changes in the vicinity of the single thiol group of Cys-34 BSA residue. (C) 2011 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Ecological effects of flow and temperature regimes on fish communities in temperate rivers

Les organismes aquatiques sont adaptés à une grande variabilité hydrique et thermique des rivières. Malgré ceci, la régulation des eaux suscite des changements aux débits qui peuvent provoquer des impacts négatifs sur la biodiversité et les processus écologiques en rivière. Celle-ci peut aussi causer des modifications au niveau des régimes thermiques et des caractéristiques de l’habitat du poisson. Des données environnementales et biologiques décrivant l’habitat du poisson existent, mais elles sont incomplètes pour plusieurs rivières au Canada et de faible qualité, limitant les relations quantitatives débit-température-poissons à un petit nombre de rivières ou à une région étudiée. La recherche menée dans le cadre de mon doctorat concerne les impacts de la génération d'hydroélectricité sur les rivières; soit les changements aux régimes hydriques et thermiques reliés à la régulation des eaux sur la variation des communautés ichtyologiques qui habitent les rivières régulées et naturelles au Canada. Suite à une comparaison d’échantillonnage de pêche, une méthode constante pour obtenir des bons estimés de poisson (richesse, densité et biomasse des espèces) a été établie pour évaluer la structure de la communauté de poissons pour l’ensemble des rivières ciblées par l’étude. Afin de mieux comprendre ces changements environnementaux, les principales composantes décrivant ces régimes ont été identifiées et l’altération des régimes hydriques pour certaines rivières régulées a été quantifiée. Ces résultats ont servi à établir la relation significative entre le degré de changement biotique et le degré de changement hydrique pour illustrer les différences entre les régimes de régulation. Pour faire un complément aux indices biotiques déjà calculés pour l’ensemble des communautés de poissons (diversité, densité et biomasse des espèces par rivière), les différences au niveau des guildes de poissons ont été quantifiées pour expliquer les divers effets écologiques dus aux changements de régimes hydriques et thermiques provenant de la gestion des barrages. Ces derniers résultats servent à prédire pour quels traits écologiques ou groupes d’espèces de poissons les composantes hydriques et thermiques sont importantes. De plus, ces derniers résultats ont servi à mettre en valeur les variables décrivant les régimes thermiques qui ne sont pas toujours inclues dans les études hydro-écologiques. L’ensemble des résultats de cette thèse ont des retombées importantes sur la gestion des rivières en évaluant, de façon cohérente, l’impact de la régulation des rivières sur les communautés de poissons et en développant des outils de prévision pour la restauration des écosystèmes riverains.

Changes in Work from the Global Value Change Perspective The Case of Transformation Economies: Bulgaria and Hungary

The core aim of this paper is to evaluate to what extent were companies able to join to the global value chains (GVCs) through some selected company case studies.

Global transcriptome analysis of Lactococcus garvieae strains in response to temperature

Lactococcus garvieae is an important fish and an opportunistic human pathogen. The genomic sequences of several L. garvieae strains have been recently published, opening the possibility of global studies on the biology of this pathogen. In this study, a whole genome DNA microarray of two strains of L. garvieae was designed and validated. This DNA microarray was used to investigate the effects of growth temperature (18°C and 37°C) on the transcriptome of two clinical strains of L. garvieae that were isolated from fish (Lg8831) and from a human case of septicemia (Lg21881). The transcriptome profiles evidenced a strain-specific response to temperature, which was more evident at 18°C. Among the most significant findings, Lg8831 was found to up-regulate at 18°C several genes encoding different cold-shock and cold-induced proteins involved in an efficient adaptive response of this strain to low-temperature conditions. Another relevant result was the description, for the first time, of respiratory metabolism in L. garvieae, whose gene expression regulation was temperature-dependent in Lg21881. This study provides new insights about how environmental factors such as temperature can affect L. garvieae gene expression. These data could improve our understanding of the regulatory networks and adaptive biology of this important pathogen.

Spatial and temporal downscaling of solar global radiation and mean air temperature from weather forecast data - an introductory numerical study and validation

This short paper presents a numerical method for spatial and temporal downscaling of solar global radiation and mean air temperature data from global weather forecast models and its validation. The final objective is to develop a prediction algorithm to be integrated in energy management models and forecast of energy harvesting in solar thermal systems of medium/low temperature. Initially, hourly prediction and measurement data of solar global radiation and mean air temperature were obtained, being then numerically downscaled to half-hourly prediction values for the location where measurements were taken. The differences between predictions and measurements were analyzed for more than one year of data of mean air temperature and solar global radiation on clear sky days, resulting in relative daily deviations of around -0.9±3.8% and 0.02±3.92%, respectively.

Implication of global warming on air-conditioned office buildings in Australia

With the accelerated trend of global warming, the thermal behavior of existing buildings, which were typically designed based on current weather data, may not be able to cope with the future climate. This paper quantifies, through computer simulations, the increased cooling loads imposed by potential global warming and probable indoor temperature increases due to possible undersized air-conditioning system. It is found from the sample office building examined that the existing buildings would generally be able to adapt to the increasing warmth of 2030 year Low and High scenarios projections and 2070 year Low scenario projection. However, for the 2070 year High scenario, the study indicates that the existing office buildings, in all capital cities except for Hobart, will suffer from overheating problems. When the annual average temperature increase exceeds 2°C, the risk of current office buildings subjected to overheating will be significantly increased. For existing buildings which are designed with current climate condition, it is shown that there is a nearly linear correlation between the increase of average external air temperature and the increase of building cooling load. For the new buildings, in which the possible global warming has been taken into account in the design, a 28-59% increase of cooling capacity under 2070 High scenario would be required to improve the building thermal comfort level to an acceptable standard.

A Method of Preparing Future Hourly Weather Data for the Study of Global Warming Impact on the Built Environment

The dynamic interaction between building systems and external climate is extremely complex, involving a large number of difficult-to-predict variables. In order to study the impact of global warming on the built environment, the use of building simulation techniques together with forecast weather data are often necessary. Since all building simulation programs require hourly meteorological input data for their thermal comfort and energy evaluation, the provision of suitable weather data becomes critical. Based on a review of the existing weather data generation models, this paper presents an effective method to generate approximate future hourly weather data suitable for the study of the impact of global warming. Depending on the level of information available for the prediction of future weather condition, it is shown that either the method of retaining to current level, constant offset method or diurnal modelling method may be used to generate the future hourly variation of an individual weather parameter. An example of the application of this method to the different global warming scenarios in Australia is presented. Since there is no reliable projection of possible change in air humidity, solar radiation or wind characters, as a first approximation, these parameters have been assumed to remain at the current level. A sensitivity test of their impact on the building energy performance shows that there is generally a good linear relationship between building cooling load and the changes of weather variables of solar radiation, relative humidity or wind speed.

Maintaining your career “edge” in a global world of work

The world of work in the 21st century has been described by many as globalised (Peiperl & Jonsen, 2007; Levy, 2007; Bhagat, 2006; Czinkota & Ronkainen, 2005). Globalisation is generally understood as a greater awareness of the world as a whole; an integrated stage where the countries of the world are seen to be players on the one playing field. This notion is driven by a perception of the world as being occupied by global citizens who are affiliated not with the country in which they are born but whose loyalties lie with planet Earth. They strive to live and work with this focus foremost in their consciousness. Indeed, many of these global citizens will enjoy global careers during their lifetime whereby they work in more than one region of the world during the course of their employment. The present chapter will present a discussion on globalisation and its impact on the world of work, in particular the changes on particular demographic groups in both developed and developing economies. It will then discuss implications for workers and their careers, specifically focusing on changing relationships between workers and organisations and the need for individuals to maintain their competitive edge in the market place through an ongoing focus on relevant career management competencies.