A methodology for appraising and selecting strategies to mitigate desertification based on stakeholder participation and global best practices

The main aim of the methodology presented in this paper is to provide a framework for a participatory process for the appraisal and selection of options to mitigate desertification and land degradation. This methodology is being developed within the EU project DESIRE (www.desire-project.eu/) in collaboration with WOCAT (www.wocat.org). It is used to select promising conservation strategies for test-implementation in each of the 16 degradation and desertification hotspot sites in the Mediterranean and around the world. The methodology consists of three main parts: In a first step, prevention and mitigation strategies already applied at the respective DESIRE study site are identified and listed during a workshop with representatives of different stakeholders groups (land users, policy makers, researchers). The participatory and process-oriented approach initiates a mutual learning process among the different stakeholders by sharing knowledge and jointly reflecting on current problems and solutions related to land degradation and desertification. In the second step these identified, locally applied solutions (technologies and approaches) are assessed with the help of the WOCAT methodology. Comprehensive questionnaires and a database system have been developed to document and evaluate all relevant aspects of technical measures as well as implementation approaches by teams of researchers and specialists, together with land users. This research process ensures systematic assessing and piecing together of local information, together with specific details about the environmental and socio-economic setting. The third part consists of another stakeholder workshop where promising strategies for sustainable land management in the given context are selected, based on the best practices database of WOCAT, including the evaluated locally applied strategies at the DESIRE sites. These promising strategies will be assessed with the help of a selection and decision support tool and adapted for test-implementation at the study site.

Glacier advances in northeastern Turkey before and during the global Last Glacial Maximum

Abstract Our study in the Başyayla Valley in northeastern Anatolia showed evidence of four glacier advances that built terminal and lateral moraines. Surface exposure dating of boulders on these moraines showed that the Maximum Ice Extent (MIE) was asynchronous with the global Last Glacial Maximum (LGM; 22.1 ± 4.3 thousand years; ka). The local {MIE} took place at least 57.0 ± 3.5 ka ago. The extent of the Başyayla Glacier during this advance is not known exactly because the boulders are only preserved on a lateral moraine. The next advance was prior to 41.5 ± 2.5 ka, and it descended down the valley to approximately 2320 m above sea level (m a.s.l.), with a glacier length of 5.3 km. During the early global LGM, the Başyayla Glacier extended for a distance of 4.9 km down to approx. 2430 m a.s.l. The last recorded advance occurred during the global LGM. This extension was 0.7 km smaller than the local {MIE} and its terminus reached 2490 m a.s.l. only. The exposure ages of boulders in a retreat position at an altitude of approx. 3045 m a.s.l. indicate that the valley has remained ice-free since the Lateglacial period. Therefore, the Lateglacial extent was limited to the cirque system in the uppermost part of the catchment. Furthermore, Holocene glacier oscillations seem to be either absent or restricted to solifluction in the whole catchment and to rock glacier movements in the southern tributary of the Başyayla Valley system.

Transient Earth system responses to cumulative carbon dioxide emissions: linearities, uncertainties, and probabilities in an observation-constrained model ensemble

Information on the relationship between cumulative fossil CO2 emissions and multiple climate targets is essential to design emission mitigation and climate adaptation strategies. In this study, the transient response of a climate or environmental variable per trillion tonnes of CO2 emissions, termed TRE, is quantified for a set of impact-relevant climate variables and from a large set of multi-forcing scenarios extended to year 2300 towards stabilization. An  ∼ 1000-member ensemble of the Bern3D-LPJ carbon–climate model is applied and model outcomes are constrained by 26 physical and biogeochemical observational data sets in a Bayesian, Monte Carlo-type framework. Uncertainties in TRE estimates include both scenario uncertainty and model response uncertainty. Cumulative fossil emissions of 1000 Gt C result in a global mean surface air temperature change of 1.9 °C (68 % confidence interval (c.i.): 1.3 to 2.7 °C), a decrease in surface ocean pH of 0.19 (0.18 to 0.22), and a steric sea level rise of 20 cm (13 to 27 cm until 2300). Linearity between cumulative emissions and transient response is high for pH and reasonably high for surface air and sea surface temperatures, but less pronounced for changes in Atlantic meridional overturning, Southern Ocean and tropical surface water saturation with respect to biogenic structures of calcium carbonate, and carbon stocks in soils. The constrained model ensemble is also applied to determine the response to a pulse-like emission and in idealized CO2-only simulations. The transient climate response is constrained, primarily by long-term ocean heat observations, to 1.7 °C (68 % c.i.: 1.3 to 2.2 °C) and the equilibrium climate sensitivity to 2.9 °C (2.0 to 4.2 °C). This is consistent with results by CMIP5 models but inconsistent with recent studies that relied on short-term air temperature data affected by natural climate variability.

Global carbon budget 2013

Accurate assessment of anthropogenic carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions and their redistribution among the atmosphere, ocean, and terrestrial biosphere is important to better understand the global carbon cycle, support the development of climate policies, and project future climate change. Here we describe data sets and a methodology to quantify all major components of the global carbon budget, including their uncertainties, based on the combination of a range of data, algorithms, statistics and model estimates and their interpretation by a broad scientific community. We discuss changes compared to previous estimates, consistency within and among components, alongside methodology and data limitations. CO2 emissions from fossil-fuel combustion and cement production (EFF) are based on energy statistics, while emissions from land-use change (ELUC), mainly deforestation, are based on combined evidence from land-cover change data, fire activity associated with deforestation, and models. The global atmospheric CO2 concentration is measured directly and its rate of growth (GATM) is computed from the annual changes in concentration. The mean ocean CO2 sink (SOCEAN) is based on observations from the 1990s, while the annual anomalies and trends are estimated with ocean models. The variability in SOCEAN is evaluated for the first time in this budget with data products based on surveys of ocean CO2 measurements. The global residual terrestrial CO2 sink (SLAND) is estimated by the difference of the other terms of the global carbon budget and compared to results of independent dynamic global vegetation models forced by observed climate, CO2 and land cover change (some including nitrogen–carbon interactions). All uncertainties are reported as ± 1 σ, reflecting the current capacity to characterise the annual estimates of each component of the global carbon budget. For the last decade available (2003–2012), EFF was 8.6 ± 0.4 GtC yr − 1, ELUC 0.9 ± 0.5 GtC yr − 1, GATM 4.3 ± 0.1 GtC yr − 1, S OCEAN 2.5 ± 0.5 GtC yr − 1, and S LAND 2.8 ± 0.8 GtC yr − 1. For year 2012 alone, EFF grew to 9.7 ± 0.5 GtC yr − 1, 2.2 % above 2011, reflecting a continued growing trend in these emissions, GATM was 5.1 ± 0.2 GtC yr − 1, SOCEANwas 2.9 ± 0.5 GtC yr −1, and assuming an ELU Cof 1.0 ± 0.5 GtC yr − 1 (based on the 2001–2010 average), SLAND was 2.7 ± 0.9 GtC yr − 1. GATM was high in 2012 compared to the 2003–2012 average, almost entirely reflecting the high EFF. The global atmospheric CO2 con- centration reached 392.52 ± 0.10 ppm averaged over 2012. We estimate that EFF will increase by 2.1 % (1.1–3.1 %) to 9.9 ± 0.5 GtC in 2013, 61 % above emissions in 1990, based on projections of world gross domestic product and recent changes in the carbon intensity of the economy. With this projection, cumulative emissions of CO2 will reach about 535 ± 55 GtC for 1870–2013, about 70 % from EFF (390 ± 20 GtC) and 30 % from ELUC (145 ± 50 GtC). This paper also documents any changes in the methods and data sets used in this new carbon budget from previous budgets (Le Quéré et al., 2013). All observations presented here can be downloaded from the Carbon Dioxide Information Analysis Center.

Trajectory mapping of middle atmospheric water vapor by a mini network of NDACC instruments

The important task to observe the global coverage of middle atmospheric trace gases like water vapor or ozone usually is accomplished by satellites. Climate and atmospheric studies rely upon the knowledge of trace gas distributions throughout the stratosphere and mesosphere. Many of these gases are currently measured from satellites, but it is not clear whether this capability will be maintained in the future. This could lead to a significant knowledge gap of the state of the atmosphere. We explore the possibilities of mapping middle atmospheric water vapor in the Northern Hemisphere by using Lagrangian trajectory calculations and water vapor profile data from a small network of five ground-based microwave radiometers. Four of them are operated within the frame of NDACC (Network for the Detection of Atmospheric Composition Change). Keeping in mind that the instruments are based on different hardware and calibration setups, a height-dependent bias of the retrieved water vapor profiles has to be expected among the microwave radiometers. In order to correct and harmonize the different data sets, the Microwave Limb Sounder (MLS) on the Aura satellite is used to serve as a kind of traveling standard. A domain-averaging TM (trajectory mapping) method is applied which simplifies the subsequent validation of the quality of the trajectory-mapped water vapor distribution towards direct satellite observations. Trajectories are calculated forwards and backwards in time for up to 10 days using 6 hourly meteorological wind analysis fields. Overall, a total of four case studies of trajectory mapping in different meteorological regimes are discussed. One of the case studies takes place during a major sudden stratospheric warming (SSW) accompanied by the polar vortex breakdown; a second takes place after the reformation of stable circulation system. TM cases close to the fall equinox and June solstice event from the year 2012 complete the study, showing the high potential of a network of ground-based remote sensing instruments to synthesize hemispheric maps of water vapor.

SMARTnet: First Experience of Setting Up a Telescope System to Survey the Geostationary Ring

Space debris in geostationary orbits may be detected with optical telescopes when the objects are illuminated by the Sun. The advantage compared to Radar can be found in the illumination: radar illuminates the objects and thus the detection sensitivity depletest proportional to the fourth power of the d istance. The German Space Operation Center, GSOC, together with the Astronomical Institute of the University of Bern, AIUB, are setting up a telescope system called SMARTnet to demonstrate the capability of performing geostationary surveillance. Such a telescope system will consist of two telescopes on one mount: a smaller telescope with an aperture of 20cm will serve for fast survey while the larger one, a telescope with an aperture of 50cm, will be used for follow-up observations. The telescopes will be operated by GSOC from Oberpfaffenhofen by the internal monitoring and control system called SMARTnetMAC. The observation plan will be generated by MARTnetPlanning seven days in advance by applying an optimized planning scheduler, taking into account fault time like cloudy nights, priority of objects etc. From each picture taken, stars will be identified and everything not being a star is treated as a possible object. If the same object can be identified on multiple pictures within a short time span, the trace is called a tracklet. In the next step, several tracklets will be correlated to identify individual objects, ephemeris data for these objects are generated and catalogued . This will allow for services like collision avoidance to ensure safe operations for GSOC’s satellites. The complete data processing chain is handled by BACARDI, the backbone catalogue of relational debris information and is presented as a poster.

The M-theory origin of global properties of gauge theories

We show that global properties of gauge groups can be understood as geometric properties in M-theory. Different wrappings of a system of N M5-branes on a torus reduce to four-dimensional theories with AN−1 gauge algebra and different unitary groups. The classical properties of the wrappings determine the global properties of the gauge theories without the need to impose any quantum conditions. We count the inequivalent wrappings as they fall into orbits of the modular group of the torus, which correspond to the S-duality orbits of the gauge theories.

Trajectory mapping of middle atmospheric water vapor by a mini network of NDACC instruments

The important task to observe the global coverage of middle atmospheric trace gases like water vapor or ozone usually is accomplished by satellites. Climate and atmospheric studies rely upon the knowledge of trace gas distributions throughout the stratosphere and mesosphere. Many of these gases are currently measured from satellites, but it is not clear whether this capability will be maintained in the future. This could lead to a significant knowledge gap of the state of the atmosphere. We explore the possibilities of mapping middle atmospheric water vapor in the Northern Hemisphere by using Lagrangian trajectory calculations and water vapor profile data from a small network of five ground-based microwave radiometers. Four of them are operated within the frame of NDACC (Network for the Detection of Atmospheric Composition Change). Keeping in mind that the instruments are based on different hardware and calibration setups, a height-dependent bias of the retrieved water vapor profiles has to be expected among the microwave radiometers. In order to correct and harmonize the different data sets, the Microwave Limb Sounder (MLS) on the Aura satellite is used to serve as a kind of traveling standard. A domain-averaging TM (trajectory mapping) method is applied which simplifies the subsequent validation of the quality of the trajectory-mapped water vapor distribution towards direct satellite observations. Trajectories are calculated forwards and backwards in time for up to 10 days using 6 hourly meteorological wind analysis fields. Overall, a total of four case studies of trajectory mapping in different meteorological regimes are discussed. One of the case studies takes place during a major sudden stratospheric warming (SSW) accompanied by the polar vortex breakdown; a second takes place after the reformation of stable circulation system. TM cases close to the fall equinox and June solstice event from the year 2012 complete the study, showing the high potential of a network of ground-based remote sensing instruments to synthesize hemispheric maps of water vapor.

A cost-effective surgical navigation solution for periacetabular osteotomy (PAO) surgery

In this chapter a low-cost surgical navigation solution for periacetabular osteotomy (PAO) surgery is described. Two commercial inertial measurement units (IMU, Xsens Technologies, The Netherlands), are attached to a patient’s pelvis and to the acetabular fragment, respectively. Registration of the patient with a pre-operatively acquired computer model is done by recording the orientation of the patient’s anterior pelvic plane (APP) using one IMU. A custom-designed device is used to record the orientation of the APP in the reference coordinate system of the IMU. After registration, the two sensors are mounted to the patient’s pelvis and acetabular fragment, respectively. Once the initial position is recorded, the orientation is measured and displayed on a computer screen. A patient-specific computer model generated from a pre-operatively acquired computed tomography (CT) scan is used to visualize the updated orientation of the acetabular fragment. Experiments with plastic bones (7 hip joints) performed in an operating room comparing a previously developed optical navigation system with our inertial-based navigation system showed no statistical difference on the measurement of acetabular component reorientation (anteversion and inclination). In six out of seven hip joints the mean absolute difference was below five degrees for both anteversion and inclination.

Earth system commitments due to delayed mitigation

As long as global CO₂ emissions continue to increase annually, long-term committed Earth system changes grow much faster than current observations. A novel metric linking this future growth to policy decisions today is the mitigation delay sensitivity (MDS), but MDS estimates for Earth system variables other than peak temperature (ΔT max) are missing. Using an Earth System Model of Intermediate Complexity, we show that the current emission increase rate causes a ΔT max increase roughly 3–7.5 times as fast as observed warming, and a millenial steric sea level rise (SSLR) 7–25 times as fast as observed SSLR, depending on the achievable rate of emission reductions after the peak of emissions. These ranges are only slightly affected by the uncertainty range in equilibrium climate sensitivity, which is included in the above values. The extent of ocean acidification at the end of the century is also strongly dependent on the starting time and rate of emission reductions. The preservable surface ocean area with sufficient aragonite supersaturation for coral reef growth is diminished globally at an MDS of roughly 25%–80% per decade. A near-complete loss of this area becomes unavoidable if mitigation is delayed for a few years to decades. Also with respect to aragonite, 12%–18% of the Southern Ocean surface become undersaturated per decade, if emission reductions are delayed beyond 2015–2040. We conclude that the consequences of delaying global emission reductions are much better captured if the MDS of relevant Earth system variables is communicated in addition to current trends and total projected future changes.

Computer-assisted virtual autopsy using surgical navigation techniques

UNLABELLED OBJECTIVE; Virtual autopsy methods, such as postmortem CT and MRI, are increasingly being used in forensic medicine. Forensic investigators with little to no training in diagnostic radiology and medical laypeople such as state's attorneys often find it difficult to understand the anatomic orientation of axial postmortem CT images. We present a computer-assisted system that permits postmortem CT datasets to be quickly and intuitively resliced in real time at the body to narrow the gap between radiologic imaging and autopsy. CONCLUSION Our system is a potentially valuable tool for planning autopsies, showing findings to medical laypeople, and teaching CT anatomy, thus further closing the gap between radiology and forensic pathology.

A cost-effective surgical navigation solution for periacetabular osteotomy (PAO) surgery.

PURPOSE To evaluate a low-cost, inertial sensor-based surgical navigation solution for periacetabular osteotomy (PAO) surgery without the line-of-sight impediment. METHODS Two commercial inertial measurement units (IMU, Xsens Technologies, The Netherlands), are attached to a patient's pelvis and to the acetabular fragment, respectively. Registration of the patient with a pre-operatively acquired computer model is done by recording the orientation of the patient's anterior pelvic plane (APP) using one IMU. A custom-designed device is used to record the orientation of the APP in the reference coordinate system of the IMU. After registration, the two sensors are mounted to the patient's pelvis and acetabular fragment, respectively. Once the initial position is recorded, the orientation is measured and displayed on a computer screen. A patient-specific computer model generated from a pre-operatively acquired computed tomography scan is used to visualize the updated orientation of the acetabular fragment. RESULTS Experiments with plastic bones (eight hip joints) performed in an operating room comparing a previously developed optical navigation system with our inertial-based navigation system showed no statistically significant difference on the measurement of acetabular component reorientation. In all eight hip joints the mean absolute difference was below four degrees. CONCLUSION Using two commercially available inertial measurement units we show that it is possible to accurately measure the orientation (inclination and anteversion) of the acetabular fragment during PAO surgery and therefore to successfully eliminate the line-of-sight impediment that optical navigation systems have.

Evolutionary history and global spread of the Mycobacterium tuberculosis Beijing lineage.

Mycobacterium tuberculosis strains of the Beijing lineage are globally distributed and are associated with the massive spread of multidrug-resistant (MDR) tuberculosis in Eurasia. Here we reconstructed the biogeographical structure and evolutionary history of this lineage by genetic analysis of 4,987 isolates from 99 countries and whole-genome sequencing of 110 representative isolates. We show that this lineage initially originated in the Far East, from where it radiated worldwide in several waves. We detected successive increases in population size for this pathogen over the last 200 years, practically coinciding with the Industrial Revolution, the First World War and HIV epidemics. Two MDR clones of this lineage started to spread throughout central Asia and Russia concomitantly with the collapse of the public health system in the former Soviet Union. Mutations identified in genes putatively under positive selection and associated with virulence might have favored the expansion of the most successful branches of the lineage.

Search for satellites near comet 67P/Churyumov-Gerasimenko using Rosetta/OSIRIS images

Context. The European Space Agency Rosetta mission reached and started escorting its main target, the Jupiter-family comet 67P/Churyumov-Gerasimenko, at the beginning of August 2014. Within the context of solar system small bodies, satellite searches from approaching spacecraft were extensively used in the past to study the nature of the visited bodies and their collisional environment. Aims. During the approaching phase to the comet in July 2014, the OSIRIS instrument onboard Rosetta performed a campaign aimed at detecting objects in the vicinity of the comet nucleus and at measuring these objects' possible bound orbits. In addition to the scientific purpose, the search also focused on spacecraft security to avoid hazardous material in the comet's environment. Methods. Images in the red spectral domain were acquired with the OSIRIS Narrow Angle Camera, when the spacecraft was at a distance between 5785 km and 5463 km to the comet, following an observational strategy tailored to maximize the scientific outcome. From the acquired images, sources were extracted and displayed to search for plausible displacements of all sources from image to image. After stars were identified, the remaining sources were thoroughly analyzed. To place constraints on the expected displacements of a potential satellite, we performed Monte Carlo simulations on the apparent motion of potential satellites within the Hill sphere. Results. We found no unambiguous detections of objects larger than similar to 6 m within similar to 20 km and larger than similar to 1 m between similar to 20 km and similar to 110 km from the nucleus, using images with an exposure time of 0.14 s and 1.36 s, respectively. Our conclusions are consistent with independent works on dust grains in the comet coma and on boulders counting on the nucleus surface. Moreover, our analysis shows that the comet outburst detected at the end of April 2014 was not strong enough to eject large objects and to place them into a stable orbit around the nucleus. Our findings underline that it is highly unlikely that large objects survive for a long time around cometary nuclei.