The potential consequences of climate variability and change on coastal areas and marine resources: report of the Coastal Areas and Marine Resources Sector Team, U.S. National Assessment of the Potential Consequences of Climate Variability and Change, U.S. Global Change Research Program

Coastal and marine ecosystems support diverse and important fisheries throughout the nation’s waters, hold vast storehouses of biological diversity, and provide unparalleled recreational opportunities. Some 53% of the total U.S. population live on the 17% of land in the coastal zone, and these areas become more crowded every year. Demands on coastal and marine resources are rapidly increasing, and as coastal areas become more developed, the vulnerability of human settlements to hurricanes, storm surges, and flooding events also increases. Coastal and marine environments are intrinsically linked to climate in many ways. The ocean is an important distributor of the planet’s heat, and this distribution could be strongly influenced by changes in global climate over the 21st century. Sea-level rise is projected to accelerate during the 21st century, with dramatic impacts in low-lying regions where subsidence and erosion problems already exist. Many other impacts of climate change on the oceans are difficult to project, such as the effects on ocean temperatures and precipitation patterns, although the potential consequences of various changes can be assessed to a degree. In other instances, research is demonstrating that global changes may already be significantly impacting marine ecosystems, such as the impact of increasing nitrogen on coastal waters and the direct effect of increasing carbon dioxide on coral reefs. Coastal erosion is already a widespread problem in much of the country and has significant impacts on undeveloped shorelines as well as on coastal development and infrastructure. Along the Pacific Coast, cycles of beach and cliff erosion have been linked to El Niño events that elevate average sea levels over the short term and alter storm tracks that affect erosion and wave damage along the coastline. These impacts will be exacerbated by long-term sea-level rise. Atlantic and Gulf coastlines are especially vulnerable to long-term sea-level rise as well as any increase in the frequency of storm surges or hurricanes. Most erosion events here are the result of storms and extreme events, and the slope of these areas is so gentle that a small rise in sea level produces a large inland shift of the shoreline. When buildings, roads and seawalls block this natural migration, the beaches and shorelines erode, threatening property and infrastructure as well as coastal ecosystems.

Global analysis of mRNA half-lives and de novo transcription in a dinoflagellate, Karenia brevis

Dinoflagellates possess many physiological processes that appear to be under post-transcriptional control. However, the extent to which their genes are regulated post-transcriptionally remains unresolved. To gain insight into the roles of differential mRNA stability and de novo transcription in dinoflagellates, we biosynthetically labeled RNA with 4-thiouracil to isolate newly transcribed and pre-existing RNA pools in Karenia brevis. These isolated fractions were then used for analysis of global mRNA stability and de novo transcription by hybridization to a K. brevis microarray. Global K. brevis mRNA half-lives were calculated from the ratio of newly transcribed to pre-existing RNA for 7086 array features using the online software HALO (Half-life Organizer). Overall, mRNA half-lives were substantially longer than reported in other organisms studied at the global level, ranging from 42 minutes to greater than 144 h, with a median of 33 hours. Consistent with well-documented trends observed in other organisms, housekeeping processes, including energy metabolism and transport, were significantly enriched in the most highly stable messages. Shorter-lived transcripts included a higher proportion of transcriptional regulation, stress response, and other response/regulatory processes. One such family of proteins involved in post-transcriptional regulation in chloroplasts and mitochondria, the pentatricopeptide repeat (PPR) proteins, had dramatically shorter half-lives when compared to the arrayed transcriptome. As transcript abundances for PPR proteins were previously observed to rapidly increase in response to nutrient addition, we queried the newly synthesized RNA pools at 1 and 4 h following nitrate addition to N-depleted cultures. Transcriptome-wide there was little evidence of increases in the rate of de novo transcription during the first 4 h, relative to that in N-depleted cells, and no evidence for increased PPR protein transcription. These results lend support to the growing consensus of post-transcriptional control of gene expression in dinoflagellates.

Global transcriptional responses of the toxic cyanobacterium, Microcystis aeruginosa, to nitrogen stress, phosphorus stress, and growth on organic matter

Whole transcriptome shotgun sequencing (RNA-seq) was used to assess the transcriptomic response of the toxic cyanobacterium Microcystis aeruginosa during growth with low levels of dissolved inorganic nitrogen (low N), low levels of dissolved inorganic phosphorus (low P), and in the presence of high levels of high molecular weight dissolved organic matter (HMWDOM). Under low N, one third of the genome was differentially expressed, with significant increases in transcripts observed among genes within the nir operon, urea transport genes (urtBCDE), and amino acid transporters while significant decreases in transcripts were observed in genes related to photosynthesis. There was also a significant decrease in the transcription of the microcystin synthetase gene set under low N and a significant decrease in microcystin content per Microcystis cell demonstrating that N supply influences cellular toxicity. Under low P, 27% of the genome was differentially expressed. The Pho regulon was induced leading to large increases in transcript levels of the alkaline phosphatase phoX, the Pst transport system (pstABC), and the sphX gene, and transcripts of multiple sulfate transporter were also significantly more abundant. While the transcriptional response to growth on HMWDOM was smaller (5–22% of genes differentially expressed), transcripts of multiple genes specifically associated with the transport and degradation of organic compounds were significantly more abundant within HMWDOM treatments and thus may be recruited by Microcystis to utilize these substrates. Collectively, these findings provide a comprehensive understanding of the nutritional physiology of this toxic, bloom-forming cyanobacterium and the role of N in controlling microcystin synthesis.

Land surface hydrology in a general circulation model: global and regional fields needed for validation

For the last two decades most general circulation models (GCMs) have included some kind of surface hydrology submodel. The content of these submodels is becoming increasingly complex and realistic. It is still easy to identify defects in present treatments. Yet, to improve our ability to model the contribution of land hydrology to climate and climate change, we must be concerned not with just the surface hydrology submodel per se, but also with how it works in the overall context of the GCM.

Fish for the future: Fisheries development and food security for Kiribati in an era of global climate change

The Republic of Kiribati is a vast South Pacific island group with one of the largest exclusive economic zones (EEZs) in the world. Kiribati waters support a wealth of marine fisheries activities. These activities occur in oceanic, coastal and inshore environments and range from large, foreign, industrial-scale oceanic fishing operations to small-scale, domestic, inshore subsistence fisheries, aquaculture and recreational fisheries. Kiribati has developed a framework of domestic and international governance arrangements that are designed to sustainably manage its wealth of marine resources. The report provides background information for fisheries projects in Kiribati that aim to build food security, improve artisanal livelihoods and strengthen community engagement in fisheries governance. It provides information on the current status of Kiribati fishery resources (oceanic and coastal), their current governance and future challenges. Fish and fisher alike pay little heed to maritime boundaries and bureaucratic distinctions. This report covers both sides of the oceanic/coastal boundary because of the I-Kiribati communities’ interest in oceanic fisheries such as tuna and their heavy dependence on its fisheries resources for food security and economic development. The report focuses on two potential pilot sites for community-based fisheries management projects: North Tarawa and Butaritari.

Initial global perspective of climate for the last thousand years: the ice core record

Climatic and environmental records from low, middle, and high latitude ice cores greatly increase our knowledge of the course of past events. This historical perspective is essential to predict climatic oscillations, dominated as they may be by increasing greenhouse gas concentrations. Forcing factors, internal and external, that have operated in the past will continue to influence the course of events.

The Los Alamos General Circulation Model hydrologic cycle

As the global population has increased, so have human influences on the global environment. ... How can we better understand and predict these natural and potential anthropogenic variations? One way is to develop a model that can accurately describe all the components of the hydrologic cycle, rather than just the end result variables such as precipitation and soil moisture. If we can predict and simulate variations in evaporation and moisture convergence, as well as precipitation, then we will have greater confidence in our ability to at least model precipitation variations. Therefore, we describe here just how well we can model relevant aspects of the global hydrologic cycle. In particular, we determine how well we can model the annual and seasonal mean global precipitation, evaporation, and atmospheric water vapor transport.

Volcanic activity and global change: probable short-term and possible long-term linkages

Article reviews annual to decadal climate response to volcanism; long-term climatic response to volcanism; and recent results from ocean drilling in the North Pacific.