Non-exponential return time distributions for vorticity extremes explained by fractional Poisson processes

Serial correlation of extreme midlatitude cyclones observed at the storm track exits is explained by deviations from a Poisson process. To model these deviations, we apply fractional Poisson processes (FPPs) to extreme midlatitude cyclones, which are defined by the 850 hPa relative vorticity of the ERA interim reanalysis during boreal winter (DJF) and summer (JJA) seasons. Extremes are defined by a 99% quantile threshold in the grid-point time series. In general, FPPs are based on long-term memory and lead to non-exponential return time distributions. The return times are described by a Weibull distribution to approximate the Mittag–Leffler function in the FPPs. The Weibull shape parameter yields a dispersion parameter that agrees with results found for midlatitude cyclones. The memory of the FPP, which is determined by detrended fluctuation analysis, provides an independent estimate for the shape parameter. Thus, the analysis exhibits a concise framework of the deviation from Poisson statistics (by a dispersion parameter), non-exponential return times and memory (correlation) on the basis of a single parameter. The results have potential implications for the predictability of extreme cyclones.

Stable-Isotopic Composition of Precipitation Over the Northern Slope of the Central Himalaya

Stable-water-isotope data (deltaD and delta(18)O) from three groups of samples (fresh-snow and snow-pit samples collected on Qomolangma (Mount Everest) and Xixabangma during field seasons 1997,1998 and 2001, and precipitation samples collected at Tingri station during summer 2000) are presented and used to survey the isotopic composition of precipitation over the northern slope of the central Himalaya. Multi-year snow-pit samples on Qomolangma have a local meteoric water-line (slope = 8) close to the global value. Deuterium excess (d = deltaD - 8delta(18)O) values at Tingri are much lower than those in fresh snow from Qomolangma, probably due to differences in moisture source and air-mass trajectories as well as local weather conditions. There is no obvious seasonal trend for d values in the Qomolangma region. A negative relationship exists between delta(18)O and d values in both fresh snow on Qomolangma and precipitation at Tingri. Fresh-snow samples collected from different altitudes on Xixabangma allow us to investigate the altitude effect on delta(18)O values in snow. Of four storm events, only one has an obvious altitude effect on delta(18)O variation and a very low gradient of -0.1% per 100 in elevation.

Preliminary Results from the Chemical Records of an 80.4 M Ice Core Recovered from East Rongbuk Glacier, Qomolangma (Mount Everest), Himalaya

High-resolution chemical records from an 80.4 m ice core from the central Himalaya demonstrate climatic and environmental changes since 1844. The chronological net accumulation series shows a sharp decrease from the mid-1950s, which is coincident with the widely observed glacier retreat. A negative correlation is found between the ice-core delta(18)O record and the monsoon precipitation for Indian region 7. The temporal variation of the terrestrial ions (Ca2+ and Mg2+) is controlled by both the monsoon precipitation for Indian regions 3,7 and 8, located directly south and west of the Himalaya, and the dust-storm duration and frequency in the northern arid regions, such as the Taklimakan desert, China. The NH4+ profile is fairly flat until the 1940s, then substantially increases until the end of the 1980s, with a slight decrease during the 1990s which may reflect new agricultural practices. The SO42- and NO3- profiles show an apparent increasing trend, especially during the period 1940s-80s. Moreover, SO42- concentrations for the East Rongbuk Glacier core are roughly double that of the nearby Dasuopu core at Xixabangma, Himalaya, due to local human activity including that of climbing teams who use gasoline for cooking, energy and transport.

Chemical Composition of Fresh Snow from Glaciar Marinelli, Tierra Del Fuego, Chile

A fresh-snow sampling campaign was conducted during the late austral summer of 2006 in the accumulation zone of Glaciar Marinelli, located in the Cordillera Darwin, Tierra del Fuego, Chile. Snow samples were analyzed for stable isotopes (delta(18)O, major soluble ions (Na', K', Ca, Mg, a NO(3)(-), SO(4)(2-), MS(-)) and major and trace elements (Na, Mg, Al, Fe, Ca, Sr, Cd, Cs, Ba, La, Ce, Pr, Dy, Ho, Er, Bi, U, As, Ti, V, Cr, Mn). The dominance of marine chemistry resembles that in studies from Patagonian glaciers. Snow chemistry was dominantly loaded by marine species (Cl(-), Na(+) and ssSO(4)(2-)), while contributions of crustal species (e.g. Al and Fe) were very low. Empirical orthogonal function analysis suggests two possible dust sources, one represented by Al and Fe and the other by La, Ce and Pr. Enrichment-factor calculations suggest the majority of elements are within average upper-crustal ratios, but major enrichments of Bi and Cd (hundreds of times) suggest possible anthropogenic sources. Linear correlation of delta(18)O and barometric pressure (r = 0.60, p < 0.007) suggests a potential 'amount effect' relationship between depleted delta(18)O ratios and stronger storm conditions (e.g. greater precipitation). The snow-chemistry records from Glaciar Marinelli are the first measured in Tierra del Fuego, the southernmost glaciated region outside Antarctica.

A catalog of high-impact windstorms in Switzerland since 1859

In recent decades, extremely hazardous windstorms have caused enormous losses to buildings, infrastructure and forests in Switzerland. This has increased societal and scientific interest in the intensity and frequency of historical high-impact storms. However, high-resolution wind data and damage statistics mostly span recent decades only. For this study, we collected quantitative (e.g., volumes of windfall timber, losses relating to buildings) and descriptive (e.g., forestry or insurance reports) information on the impact of historical windstorms. To define windstorm severity, normalized and declustered quantitative data were processed by extreme value statistics. Descriptive information was classified using a conceptual guideline. Validation with independent damage information, as well as comparison with wind measurements and a reanalysis, indicates that the most hazardous winter storms are captured, while too few moderate windstorms are detected. Strong storms in the wind measurements and reanalysis are thus added to the catalog. The final catalog encompasses approximately 240 high-impact windstorms in Switzerland since 1859. It features three robust severity classes and contains eight extreme windstorms. Evidence of high winter storm activity in the early and late 20th century compared to the mid-20th century in both damage and wind data indicates a co-variability of hazard and related damage on decadal timescales.

Contrasting interannual and multidecadal NAO variability

Decadal and longer timescale variability in the winter North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) has considerable impact on regional climate, yet it remains unclear what fraction of this variability is potentially predictable. This study takes a new approach to this question by demonstrating clear physical differences between NAO variability on interannual-decadal (<30 year) and multidecadal (>30 year) timescales. It is shown that on the shorter timescale the NAO is dominated by variations in the latitude of the North Atlantic jet and storm track, whereas on the longer timescale it represents changes in their strength instead. NAO variability on the two timescales is associated with different dynamical behaviour in terms of eddy-mean flow interaction, Rossby wave breaking and blocking. The two timescales also exhibit different regional impacts on temperature and precipitation and different relationships to sea surface temperatures. These results are derived from linear regression analysis of the Twentieth Century and NCEP-NCAR reanalyses and of a high-resolution HiGEM General Circulation Model control simulation, with additional analysis of a long sea level pressure reconstruction. Evidence is presented for an influence of the ocean circulation on the longer timescale variability of the NAO, which is particularly clear in the model data. As well as providing new evidence of potential predictability, these findings are shown to have implications for the reconstruction and interpretation of long climate records.

Role of electrophysiological studies in predicting risk of ventricular arrhythmia in early repolarization syndrome.

BACKGROUND The early repolarization (ER) pattern is associated with an increased risk of arrhythmogenic sudden death. However, strategies for risk stratification of patients with the ER pattern are not fully defined. OBJECTIVES This study sought to determine the role of electrophysiology studies (EPS) in risk stratification of patients with ER syndrome. METHODS In a multicenter study, 81 patients with ER syndrome (age 36 ± 13 years, 60 males) and aborted sudden death due to ventricular fibrillation (VF) were included. EPS were performed following the index VF episode using a standard protocol. Inducibility was defined by the provocation of sustained VF. Patients were followed up by serial implantable cardioverter-defibrillator interrogations. RESULTS Despite a recent history of aborted sudden death, VF was inducible in only 18 of 81 (22%) patients. During follow-up of 7.0 ± 4.9 years, 6 of 18 (33%) patients with inducible VF during EPS experienced VF recurrences, whereas 21 of 63 (33%) patients who were noninducible experienced recurrent VF (p = 0.93). VF storm occurred in 3 patients from the inducible VF group and in 4 patients in the noninducible group. VF inducibility was not associated with maximum J-wave amplitude (VF inducible vs. VF noninducible; 0.23 ± 0.11 mV vs. 0.21 ± 0.11 mV; p = 0.42) or J-wave distribution (inferior, odds ratio [OR]: 0.96 [95% confidence interval (CI): 0.33 to 2.81]; p = 0.95; lateral, OR: 1.57 [95% CI: 0.35 to 7.04]; p = 0.56; inferior and lateral, OR: 0.83 [95% CI: 0.27 to 2.55]; p = 0.74), which have previously been demonstrated to predict outcome in patients with an ER pattern. CONCLUSIONS Our findings indicate that current programmed stimulation protocols do not enhance risk stratification in ER syndrome.

GOCE: assessment of GPS-only gravity field determination

The GOCE satellite was orbiting the Earth in a Sun-synchronous orbit at a very low altitude for more than 4 years. This low orbit and the availability of high-quality data make it worthwhile to assess the contribution of GOCE GPS data to the recovery of both the static and time-variable gravity fields. We use the kinematic positions of the official GOCE precise science orbit (PSO) product to perform gravity field determination using the Celestial Mechanics Approach. The generated gravity field solutions reveal severe systematic errors centered along the geomagnetic equator. Their size is significantly coupled with the ionospheric density and thus generally increasing over the mission period. The systematic errors may be traced back to the kinematic positions of the PSO product and eventually to the ionosphere-free GPS carrier phase observations used for orbit determination. As they cannot be explained by the current higher order ionospheric correction model recommended by the IERS Conventions 2010, an empirical approach is presented by discarding GPS data affected by large ionospheric changes. Such a measure yields a strong reduction of the systematic errors along the geomagnetic equator in the gravity field recovery, and only marginally reduces the set of useable kinematic positions by at maximum 6 % for severe ionosphere conditions. Eventually it is shown that GOCE gravity field solutions based on kinematic positions have a limited sensitivity to the largest annual signal related to land hydrology.

Arctic moisture source for Eurasian snow cover variations in autumn

Eurasian fall snow cover changes have been suggested as a driver for changes in the Arctic Oscillation and might provide a link between sea-ice decline in the Arctic during summer and atmospheric circulation in the following winter. However, the mechanism connecting snow cover in Eurasia to sea-ice decline in autumn is still under debate. Our analysis is based on snow observations from 820 Russian land stations, moisture transport using a Lagrangian approach derived from meteorological re-analyses. We show that declining sea-ice in the Barents and Kara Seas (BKS) acts as moisture source for the enhanced Western Siberian snow depth as a result of changed tropospheric moisture transport. Transient disturbances enter the continent from the BKS region related to anomalies in the planetary wave pattern and move southward along the Ural mountains where they merge into the extension of the Mediterranean storm track.

Daily and seasonal thermal stresses in tilings: a field survey combined with numeric modeling

This study investigates thermally induced tensile stresses in ceramic tilings. Daily and seasonal thermal cycles, as well as, rare but extreme events, such as a hail-storm striking a heated terrace tiling, were studied in the field and by numerical modeling investigations. The field surveys delivered temperature– time diagrams and temperature profiles across tiling systems. These data were taken as input parameters for modeling the stress distribution in the tiling system in order to detect potential sites for material failure. Dependent on the thermal scenario (e.g., slow heating of the entire structure during morning and afternoon, or a rapid cooling of the tiles by a rain storm) the modeling indicates specific locations with high tensile stresses. Typically regions along the rim of the tiling field showed stresses, which can become critical with respect to the adhesion strength. Over the years, ongoing cycles of thermal expansion–contraction result in material fatigue promoting the propagation of cracks. However, the installation of flexible waterproofing membranes (applied between substrate and tile adhesive) represents an efficient technical innovation to reduce such crack propagation as confirmed by both numerical modeling results and microstructural studies on real systems.

Impact of a Reduced Arctic Sea Ice Cover on Ocean and Atmospheric Properties

The Arctic sea ice cover declined over the last few decades and reached a record minimum in 2007, with a slight recovery thereafter. Inspired by this the authors investigate the response of atmospheric and oceanic properties to a 1-yr period of reduced sea ice cover. Two ensembles of equilibrium and transient simulations are produced with the Community Climate System Model. A sea ice change is induced through an albedo change of 1 yr. The sea ice area and thickness recover in both ensembles after 3 and 5 yr, respectively. The sea ice anomaly leads to changes in ocean temperature and salinity to a depth of about 200 m in the Arctic Basin. Further, the salinity and temperature changes in the surface layer trigger a “Great Salinity Anomaly” in the North Atlantic that takes roughly 8 yr to travel across the North Atlantic back to high latitudes. In the atmosphere the changes induced by the sea ice anomaly do not last as long as in the ocean. The response in the transient and equilibrium simulations, while similar overall, differs in specific regional and temporal details. The surface air temperature increases over the Arctic Basin and the anomaly extends through the whole atmospheric column, changing the geopotential height fields and thus the storm tracks. The patterns of warming and thus the position of the geopotential height changes vary in the two ensembles. While the equilibrium simulation shifts the storm tracks to the south over the eastern North Atlantic and Europe, the transient simulation shifts the storm tracks south over the western North Atlantic and North America. The authors propose that the overall reduction in sea ice cover is important for producing ocean anomalies; however, for atmospheric anomalies the regional location of the sea ice anomalies is more important. While observed trends in Arctic sea ice are large and exceed those simulated by comprehensive climate models, there is little evidence based on this particular model that the seasonal loss of sea ice (e.g., as occurred in 2007) would constitute a threshold after which the Arctic would exhibit nonlinear, irreversible, or strongly accelerated sea ice loss. Caution should be exerted when extrapolating short-term trends to future sea ice behavior.

Radiometric 81Kr dating identifies 120,000-year-old ice at Taylor Glacier, Antarctica

We present successful 81 Kr-Kr radiometric dating of ancient polarice. Krypton was extracted from the air bubbles in four∼350-kg polar ice samples from Taylor Glacier in the McMurdo Dry Valleys, Antarctica, and dated using Atom Trap Trace Analysis (ATTA). The 81 Kr radiometric ages agree with independent age estimates obtained from stratigraphic dating techniques with a mean abso-lute age offset of 6±2.5 ka. Our experimental methods and sampling strategy are validated by (i) 85 Kr and 39 Ar analyses that show the samples to be free of modern air contamination and (ii)air content measurements that show the ice did not experience gas loss. We estimate the error in the 81 Kr ages due to past geomagnetic variability to be below 3 ka. We show that ice from the previous interglacial period (Marine Isotope Stage 5e, 130–115 ka before present) can be found in abundance near the surface of Taylor Glacier. Our study paves the way for reliable radiometric dating of ancient ice in blue ice areas and margin sites where large samples are available, greatly enhancing their scientific value as archives of old ice and meteorites. At present, ATTA 81Kr analysis requires a 40–80-kg ice sample; as sample requirements continue to decrease, 81 Kr dating of ice cores is a future possibility.

Ästhetische Meerfahrt. Erkundungen zur Beziehung zwischen Literatur und Natur in der Neuzeit

Die Beziehungen zwischen Mensch und Natur durchziehen sämtliche Christian von Zimmermann Kulturräume und werden in den verschiedensten kulturellen Praktiken gestaltet. Dies gilt besonders auch für die Literatur. Sprachliches und besonders auch ästhetisch gestaltetes sprachliches Handeln wird getragen von historisch sich wandelnden Einstellungen zum Meer (Mentalitätsgeschichte), prägt die Beziehung zwischen Mensch und Naturraum (literarische Anthropologie) und kulminiert in der Anforderung an eine ‘rechte Rede’ im Umgang mit der Natur (Naturethik). Unter dem Titel Ästhetische Meerfahrt werden Schlaglichter auf diese Aspekte der Geschichte der Mensch-Meer- Beziehungen im Medium der Literatur geworfen. Dabei stellt die Studie selbst eine Meerfahrt (Essay) dar, die Land- und Seemarken benennt, einzelne Häfen ansteuert, sich aber der offenen Weite des Gewässers bewusst bleibt. Eigene Erkundungen anzuregen, ein naturethisches Denken in die Literaturwissenschaft einzubeziehen, ist Anliegen dieses Buches. Wichtige, teils ausführlich dargelegte Stationen des Buches sind Werke von Olearius, Fleming, Brockes, Gessner, Herder, Goethe, Kosegarten, Heine, Ibsen, Storm, Hauptmann, Keyserling, Kellermann, Fock, Andersch, Cibulka, Theobaldy.

Total Thyroidectomy for Amiodarone-induced Thyrotoxicosis in the Hyperthyroid State.

Amiodarone is a potent antiarrhythmic agent, indicated for the treatment of refractory arrhythmias, which may lead to thyrotoxicosis. In these patients, thyroidectomy is a valid therapeutic option. Antithyroid therapy in the immediate preoperative setting and the subsequently accepted minimal delay until thyroidectomy have not been clearly defined yet. The aim of the present study was to show, that total thyroidectomy under general anaesthesia in patients with amiodarone-induced thyrotoxicosis (AIT) is safe without necessarily obtaining an euthyroid state preoperatively.We conducted a retrospective cohort study of prospectively gathered data on 11 patients undergoing total thyroidectomy under general anaesthesia between January 2008 and December 2013 for AIT at our University Hospital.All patients were preoperatively treated with carbimazole, steroids and β-receptor antagonists. Additionally, 3 patients received potassium perchlorate and in one patient carbimazole was changed to propylthiouracil. Plasmapheresis was performed in 3 patients. Only one patient was euthyroid at the time of operation. There were no significant intra- and postoperative complications, especially no signs of thyroid storm. One patient could postoperatively be removed from the cardiac transplant waiting list due to improved cardiac function.Improvements in the interdisciplinary surgical management for AIT between cardiologists, endocrinologists, anaesthetists and endocrine surgeons provide the basis of safe total thyroidectomy under general anaesthesia in hyperthyroid state. Early surgery without long delay for medical antithyroid treatment (with its potential negative side effects) is recommended.