Bayesian generalized linear models for meta-analysis of diagnostic tests

With the recognition of the importance of evidence-based medicine, there is an emerging need for methods to systematically synthesize available data. Specifically, methods to provide accurate estimates of test characteristics for diagnostic tests are needed to help physicians make better clinical decisions. To provide more flexible approaches for meta-analysis of diagnostic tests, we developed three Bayesian generalized linear models. Two of these models, a bivariate normal and a binomial model, analyzed pairs of sensitivity and specificity values while incorporating the correlation between these two outcome variables. Noninformative independent uniform priors were used for the variance of sensitivity, specificity and correlation. We also applied an inverse Wishart prior to check the sensitivity of the results. The third model was a multinomial model where the test results were modeled as multinomial random variables. All three models can include specific imaging techniques as covariates in order to compare performance. Vague normal priors were assigned to the coefficients of the covariates. The computations were carried out using the 'Bayesian inference using Gibbs sampling' implementation of Markov chain Monte Carlo techniques. We investigated the properties of the three proposed models through extensive simulation studies. We also applied these models to a previously published meta-analysis dataset on cervical cancer as well as to an unpublished melanoma dataset. In general, our findings show that the point estimates of sensitivity and specificity were consistent among Bayesian and frequentist bivariate normal and binomial models. However, in the simulation studies, the estimates of the correlation coefficient from Bayesian bivariate models are not as good as those obtained from frequentist estimation regardless of which prior distribution was used for the covariance matrix. The Bayesian multinomial model consistently underestimated the sensitivity and specificity regardless of the sample size and correlation coefficient. In conclusion, the Bayesian bivariate binomial model provides the most flexible framework for future applications because of its following strengths: (1) it facilitates direct comparison between different tests; (2) it captures the variability in both sensitivity and specificity simultaneously as well as the intercorrelation between the two; and (3) it can be directly applied to sparse data without ad hoc correction. ^

Detecting genetic and nutritional lung cancer risk factors related to folate metabolism using Bayesian generalized linear models

Complex diseases, such as cancer, are caused by various genetic and environmental factors, and their interactions. Joint analysis of these factors and their interactions would increase the power to detect risk factors but is statistically. Bayesian generalized linear models using student-t prior distributions on coefficients, is a novel method to simultaneously analyze genetic factors, environmental factors, and interactions. I performed simulation studies using three different disease models and demonstrated that the variable selection performance of Bayesian generalized linear models is comparable to that of Bayesian stochastic search variable selection, an improved method for variable selection when compared to standard methods. I further evaluated the variable selection performance of Bayesian generalized linear models using different numbers of candidate covariates and different sample sizes, and provided a guideline for required sample size to achieve a high power of variable selection using Bayesian generalize linear models, considering different scales of number of candidate covariates. ^ Polymorphisms in folate metabolism genes and nutritional factors have been previously associated with lung cancer risk. In this study, I simultaneously analyzed 115 tag SNPs in folate metabolism genes, 14 nutritional factors, and all possible genetic-nutritional interactions from 1239 lung cancer cases and 1692 controls using Bayesian generalized linear models stratified by never, former, and current smoking status. SNPs in MTRR were significantly associated with lung cancer risk across never, former, and current smokers. In never smokers, three SNPs in TYMS and three gene-nutrient interactions, including an interaction between SHMT1 and vitamin B12, an interaction between MTRR and total fat intake, and an interaction between MTR and alcohol use, were also identified as associated with lung cancer risk. These lung cancer risk factors are worthy of further investigation.^

Relative phase shift and oscillation observations at moorings in the Filchner Depression area

Properties of the dense ice shelf water plume emerging from the Filchner Depression in the southwestern Weddell Sea are described, using available current meter records and CTD stations. A mean hydrography, based on more than 300 CTD stations gathered over 25 yr points to a cold, relatively thin and vertically well-defined plume east of the two ridges cross-cutting the continental slope about 60 km from the Filchner sill, whereas the dense bottom layer is warmer, more stratified and much thicker west of these ridges. The data partly confirm the three major pathways suggested earlier and agree with recent theories on topographic steering by submarine ridges. A surprisingly high mesoscale variability in the overflow region is documented and discussed. The variability is to a large extent due to three distinct oscillations (with periods of about 35 h, 3 and 6 d) seen in both temperature and velocity records on the slope. The oscillations are episodic, barotropic and have a horizontal scale of ~20-40 km across the slope. They are partly geographically separated, with the longer period being stronger on the lower part of the slope and the shorter on the upper part of the slope. Energy levels are lower west of the ridges, and in the Filchner Depression. The observations are discussed in relation to existing theories on eddies, commonly generated in plumes, and continental shelf waves.

Contaminación ambiental en bodegas : percepción en el sitio de trabajo

En el marco de una investigación cualitativa se entrevistó a personal de bodegas de Luján y Maipú (Mendoza, Argentina) para conocer su opinión sobre la contaminación ambiental producida por dichos establecimientos. Se estudiaron cuatro dimensiones de la contaminación: ruidos, olores, residuos sólidos y residuos líquidos. Por muestreo aleatorio se seleccionaron 18 bodegas. En cada una se entrevistó un empleado de nivel gerencial y a un operario de planta utilizando un formulario semiestructurado con preguntas abiertas. La tarea de reducción de la información cualitativa consistió en una categorización y agrupamiento de respuestas. Mediante inducción analítica se generalizó para el área de estudio. Se concluyó que la contaminación ambiental en el lugar de trabajo de las bodegas es percibida por su personal como de mediana magnitud. Con respecto a los residuos líquidos, se consideran de bajo impacto ambiental externo . No se perciben impactos externos causados por las otras dimensiones. El grado de conciencia empresarial es muy variable. En algunas empresas existe conducta favorable al cuidado del medio ambiente, pero esto no es generalizable a todas las bodegas. Hay descuido por parte de los operarios en el uso de protectores para ruidos y olores.

Reefs shift from net accretion to net erosion along a natural environmental gradient

Coral reefs persist in an accretion-erosion balance and ocean acidification resulting from anthropogenic CO2 emissions threatens to shift this balance in favor of net reef erosion. Corals and calcifying algae, largely responsible for reef accretion, are vulnerable to environmental changes associated with ocean acidification, but the direct effects of lower pH on reef erosion has received less attention, particularly in the context of known drivers of bioerosion and natural variability. This study examines the balance between reef accretion and erosion along a well-characterized natural environmental gradient in Kane'ohe Bay, Hawai'i using experimental blocks of coral skeleton. Comparing before and after micro-computed tomography (µCT) scans to quantify net accretion and erosion, we show that, at the small spatial scale of this study (tens of meters), pH was a better predictor of the accretion-erosion balance than environmental drivers suggested by prior studies, including resource availability, temperature, distance from shore, or depth. In addition, this study highlights the fine-scale variation of pH in coastal systems and the importance of microhabitat variation for reef accretion and erosion processes. We demonstrate significant changes in both the mean and variance of pH on the order of meters, providing a local perspective on global increases in pCO2. Our findings suggest that increases in reef erosion, combined with expected decreases in calcification, will accelerate the shift of coral reefs to an erosion-dominated system in a high-CO2 world. This shift will make reefs increasingly susceptible to storm damage and sea-level rise, threatening the maintenance of the ecosystem services that coral reefs provide.

PLN : The paradigm shift in teacher and learner autonomy

This presentation explains a dozen tools and paradigm shifts that teachers should apply in transformative ways to working with their students, how Web 2.0, tagging, and RSS are crucial to this process, and how teachers can develop their own personal learning networks to practice continuous lifelong learning and 'teacher autonomy' before applying these concepts to students.

PLN : The paradigm shift in teacher and learner autonomy

This presentation explains a dozen tools and paradigm shifts that teachers should apply in transformative ways to working with their students, how Web 2.0, tagging, and RSS are crucial to this process, and how teachers can develop their own personal learning networks to practice continuous lifelong learning and 'teacher autonomy' before applying these concepts to students.

The shift of paradigm in the organizations like foundation of the style of ethical leadership

La presente investigación tiene por objeto analizar el cambio de paradigma en las organizaciones como fundamento del liderazgo ético desde una realidad postmoderna a fin de detectar la necesidad de un liderazgo ético en las organizaciones donde los líderes sean formadores de valores a través del modelaje directivo; es un estilo de liderazgo en el que la visión ética, sistémica e integradora son unas de las principales aptitudes que el líder ético ha de poner en la práctica. Se han desarrollado teorías de liderazgo centradas no tanto en los rasgos o comportamientos de los líderes, sino en la relación entre líder y sus seguidores

PLN : The paradigm shift in teacher and learner autonomy

This presentation explains a dozen tools and paradigm shifts that teachers should apply in transformative ways to working with their students, how Web 2.0, tagging, and RSS are crucial to this process, and how teachers can develop their own personal learning networks to practice continuous lifelong learning and 'teacher autonomy' before applying these concepts to students.

Operator and replicability bias in comparative taphonomic studies

The operator effect is a well-known methodological bias already quantified in some taphonomic studies. However, the replicability effect, i.e., the use of taphonomic attributes as a replicable scientific method, has not been taken into account to the present. Here, we quantified for the first time this replicability bias using different multivariate statistical techniques, testing if the operator effect is related to the replicability effect. We analyzed the results reported by 15 operators working on the same dataset. Each operator analyzed 30 biological remains (bivalve shells) from five different sites, considering the attributes fragmentation, edge rounding, corrasion, bioerosion and secondary color. The operator effect followed the same pattern reported in previous studies, characterized by a worse correspondence for those attributes having more than two levels of damage categories. However, the effect did not appear to have relation with the replicability effect, because nearly all operators found differences among sites. Despite the binary attribute bioerosion exhibited 83% of correspondence among operators it was the taphonomic attributes that showed the highest dispersion among operators (28%). Therefore, we conclude that binary attributes (despite showing a reduction of the operator effect) diminish replicability, resulting in different interpretations of concordant data. We found that a variance value of nearly 8% among operators, was enough to generate a different taphonomic interpretation, in a Q-mode cluster analysis. The results reported here showed that the statistical method employed influences the level of replicability and comparability of a study and that the availability of results may be a valid alternative to reduce bias.

Spatial community shift from hard to soft corals in acidified water

Anthropogenic increases in the partial pressure of CO2 (pCO2) cause ocean acidification, declining calcium carbonate saturation states, reduced coral reef calcification and changes in the compositions of marine communities. Most projected community changes due to ocean acidification describe transitions from hard coral to non-calcifying macroalgal communities; other organisms have received less attention, despite the biotic diversity of coral reef communities. We show that the spatial distributions of both hard and soft coral communities in volcanically acidified, semi-enclosed waters off Iwotorishima Island, Japan, are related to pCO2 levels. Hard corals are restricted to non-acidified low- pCO2 (225 µatm) zones, dense populations of the soft coral Sarcophyton elegans dominate medium- pCO2 (831 µatm) zones, and both hard and soft corals are absent from the highest- pCO2 (1,465 µatm) zone. In CO2-enriched culture experiments, high- pCO2 conditions benefited Sarcophyton elegans by enhancing photosynthesis rates and did not affect light calcification, but dark decalcification (negative net calcification) increased with increasing pCO2. These results suggest that reef communities may shift from reef-building hard corals to non-reef-building soft corals under pCO2 levels (550-970 µatm) predicted by the end of this century, and that higher pCO2 levels would challenge the survival of some reef organisms.

Strong shift from HCO3- to CO2 uptake in Emiliania huxleyi with acidification: new approach unravels acclimation versus short-term pH effects

Effects of ocean acidification on Emiliania huxleyi strain RCC 1216 (calcifying, diploid life-cycle stage) and RCC 1217 (non-calcifying, haploid life-cycle stage) were investigated by measuring growth, elemental composition, and production rates under different pCO2 levels (380 and 950 µatm). In these differently acclimated cells, the photosynthetic carbon source was assessed by a (14)C disequilibrium assay, conducted over a range of ecologically relevant pH values (7.9-8.7). In agreement with previous studies, we observed decreased calcification and stimulated biomass production in diploid cells under high pCO2, but no CO2-dependent changes in biomass production for haploid cells. In both life-cycle stages, the relative contributions of CO2 and HCO3 (-) uptake depended strongly on the assay pH. At pH values =< 8.1, cells preferentially used CO2 (>= 90 % CO2), whereas at pH values >= 8.3, cells progressively increased the fraction of HCO3 (-) uptake (~45 % CO2 at pH 8.7 in diploid cells; ~55 % CO2 at pH 8.5 in haploid cells). In contrast to the short-term effect of the assay pH, the pCO2 acclimation history had no significant effect on the carbon uptake behavior. A numerical sensitivity study confirmed that the pH-modification in the (14)C disequilibrium method yields reliable results, provided that model parameters (e.g., pH, temperature) are kept within typical measurement uncertainties. Our results demonstrate a high plasticity of E. huxleyi to rapidly adjust carbon acquisition to the external carbon supply and/or pH, and provide an explanation for the paradoxical observation of high CO2 sensitivity despite the apparently high HCO3 (-) usage seen in previous studies.