Improved statistical analysis of low abundance phenomena in bimodal bacterial populations.

Accurate detection of subpopulation size determinations in bimodal populations remains problematic yet it represents a powerful way by which cellular heterogeneity under different environmental conditions can be compared. So far, most studies have relied on qualitative descriptions of population distribution patterns, on population-independent descriptors, or on arbitrary placement of thresholds distinguishing biological ON from OFF states. We found that all these methods fall short of accurately describing small population sizes in bimodal populations. Here we propose a simple, statistics-based method for the analysis of small subpopulation sizes for use in the free software environment R and test this method on real as well as simulated data. Four so-called population splitting methods were designed with different algorithms that can estimate subpopulation sizes from bimodal populations. All four methods proved more precise than previously used methods when analyzing subpopulation sizes of transfer competent cells arising in populations of the bacterium Pseudomonas knackmussii B13. The methods' resolving powers were further explored by bootstrapping and simulations. Two of the methods were not severely limited by the proportions of subpopulations they could estimate correctly, but the two others only allowed accurate subpopulation quantification when this amounted to less than 25% of the total population. In contrast, only one method was still sufficiently accurate with subpopulations smaller than 1% of the total population. This study proposes a number of rational approximations to quantifying small subpopulations and offers an easy-to-use protocol for their implementation in the open source statistical software environment R.

Statistical learning theory for geospatial data. Case study: Aral sea

In recent years there has been an explosive growth in the development of adaptive and data driven methods. One of the efficient and data-driven approaches is based on statistical learning theory (Vapnik 1998). The theory is based on Structural Risk Minimisation (SRM) principle and has a solid statistical background. When applying SRM we are trying not only to reduce training error ? to fit the available data with a model, but also to reduce the complexity of the model and to reduce generalisation error. Many nonlinear learning procedures recently developed in neural networks and statistics can be understood and interpreted in terms of the structural risk minimisation inductive principle. A recent methodology based on SRM is called Support Vector Machines (SVM). At present SLT is still under intensive development and SVM find new areas of application (www.kernel-machines.org). SVM develop robust and non linear data models with excellent generalisation abilities that is very important both for monitoring and forecasting. SVM are extremely good when input space is high dimensional and training data set i not big enough to develop corresponding nonlinear model. Moreover, SVM use only support vectors to derive decision boundaries. It opens a way to sampling optimization, estimation of noise in data, quantification of data redundancy etc. Presentation of SVM for spatially distributed data is given in (Kanevski and Maignan 2004).

Sample size and statistical power in the hierarchical analysis of variance: applications in morphometry of the nervous system.

Analysis of variance is commonly used in morphometry in order to ascertain differences in parameters between several populations. Failure to detect significant differences between populations (type II error) may be due to suboptimal sampling and lead to erroneous conclusions; the concept of statistical power allows one to avoid such failures by means of an adequate sampling. Several examples are given in the morphometry of the nervous system, showing the use of the power of a hierarchical analysis of variance test for the choice of appropriate sample and subsample sizes. In the first case chosen, neuronal densities in the human visual cortex, we find the number of observations to be of little effect. For dendritic spine densities in the visual cortex of mice and humans, the effect is somewhat larger. A substantial effect is shown in our last example, dendritic segmental lengths in monkey lateral geniculate nucleus. It is in the nature of the hierarchical model that sample size is always more important than subsample size. The relative weight to be attributed to subsample size thus depends on the relative magnitude of the between observations variance compared to the between individuals variance.

Paper 4: EUROCAT statistical monitoring: identification and investigation of ten year trends of congenital anomalies in Europe.

BACKGROUND: As part of EUROCAT's surveillance of congenital anomalies in Europe, a statistical monitoring system has been developed to detect recent clusters or long-term (10 year) time trends. The purpose of this article is to describe the system for the identification and investigation of 10-year time trends, conceived as a "screening" tool ultimately leading to the identification of trends which may be due to changing teratogenic factors.METHODS: The EUROCAT database consists of all cases of congenital anomalies including livebirths, fetal deaths from 20 weeks gestational age, and terminations of pregnancy for fetal anomaly. Monitoring of 10-year trends is performed for each registry for each of 96 non-independent EUROCAT congenital anomaly subgroups, while Pan-Europe analysis combines data from all registries. The monitoring results are reviewed, prioritized according to a prioritization strategy, and communicated to registries for investigation. Twenty-one registries covering over 4 million births, from 1999 to 2008, were included in monitoring in 2010.CONCLUSIONS: Significant increasing trends were detected for abdominal wall anomalies, gastroschisis, hypospadias, Trisomy 18 and renal dysplasia in the Pan-Europe analysis while 68 increasing trends were identified in individual registries. A decreasing trend was detected in over one-third of anomaly subgroups in the Pan-Europe analysis, and 16.9% of individual registry tests. Registry preliminary investigations indicated that many trends are due to changes in data quality, ascertainment, screening, or diagnostic methods. Some trends are inevitably chance phenomena related to multiple testing, while others seem to represent real and continuing change needing further investigation and response by regional/national public health authorities.

Primary mucosa-associated lymphoid tissue lymphoma of the salivary glands: a multicenter Rare Cancer Network study.

Purpose: Involvement of salivary glands with mucosa-associated lymphoid tissue (MALT) lymphoma is rare. This retrospective study was performed to assess the clinical profile, treatment outcome, and prognostic factors of MALT lymphoma of the salivary glands.Methods and Materials: Thirteen member centers of the Rare Cancer Network from 10 countries participated, providing data on 63 patients. The median age was 58 years; 47 patients were female and 16 were male. The parotid glands were involved in 49 cases, submandibular in 15, and minor glands in 3. Multiple glands were involved in 9 patients. Staging was as follows: IE in 34, IIE in 12, IIIE in 2, and IV in 15 patients.Results: Surgery (S) alone was performed in 9, radiotherapy (RI) alone in 8, and chemotherapy (CT) alone in 4 patients. Forty-one patients received combined modality treatment (S + RT in 23, S + CT in 8, RT + CT in 4, and all three modalities in 6 patients). No active treatment was given in one case. After initial treatment there was no tumor in 57 patients and residual tumor in 5. Tumor progression was observed in 23 (36.5%) (local in 1, other salivary glands in 10, lymph nodes in 11, and elsewhere in 6). Five patients died of disease progression and the other 5 of other causes. The 5-year disease-free survival, disease-specific survival, and overall survival were 54.4%, 93.2%, and 81.7%, respectively. Factors influencing disease-free survival were use of RI, stage, and residual tumor (p < 0.01). Factors influencing disease-specific survival were stage, recurrence, and residual tumor (p < 0.01).Conclusions: To our knowledge, this report represents the largest series of MALT lymphomas of the salivary glands published to date. This disease may involve all salivary glands either initially or subsequently in 30% of patients. Recurrences may occur in up to 35% of patients at 5 years; however, survival is not affected. Radiotherapy is the only treatment modality that improves disease-free survival. (C) 2012 Elsevier Inc.

Adenoid Cystic Carcinoma of the Breast: A Rare Cancer Network Study

Purpose/Objective(s): Mammary adenoid cystic carcinoma (ACC) is a rare breast cancer variant. It accounts for less than 0.1% of all invasive breast malignancies. Typically, it presents as a small breast lump with a low propensity to metastasize to regional lymph nodes or distant sites. The aim of this retrospective multicenter Rare Cancer Network study is to assess prognostic factors and patterns of failure in ACC, as well as the role of radiation therapy (RT) in this rare disease. Materials/Methods: Between January 1980 and December 2007, 61 women with breast ACC were included in this study. Median age was 59 years (range, 28-94 years). The majority of the patients had good performance status (49 patients with WHO 0, 12 patients with WHO 1), and 70% of the patients (n = 42) were premenopausal. Surgery consisted of tumorectomy in 35 patients, mastectomy in 20, or quadrantectomy in 6. Median tumor size was 20 mm (range, 6-170 mm). Surgical margins were clear in 50 (82%) patients. Axillary dissection (n = 41) or sentinel node assessment (n = 10) was realized in the majority of the patients. There were 53 (87%) pN0 and 8 pNx (13%) patients. Estrogen (ER) and progesterone receptor (PR) was negative in 43 (71%) and 42 (69%) patients, respectively. In 16 patients (26%), the receptor status was unknown. Adjuvant chemotherapy or hormonotherapy was administered in 8 (13%) and 7 (12%) patients, respectively. Postoperative RT with a median total dose of 50 Gy (1.8-2.0 Gy/fraction; range, 44-70 Gy) was given in 40 patients. Results: With a median follow-up of 79 months (range, 6-285 months), 5-year overall and disease-free survival (DFS) rates were 94% (95% confidence interval [CI]: 88-100%) and 82% (95% CI: 71-93%), respectively. Five-year locoregional control rate was 95% (95% CI: 89-100%). There were only 4 patients with local relapse who were all salvaged successfully, and 4 other patients developed distant metastases. According to the Common Terminology Criteria for Adverse Events v3.0, late toxicity consisted of grade 2-3 cutaneous fibrosis in 4 (10%) patients, grade 1-2 edema in 2 (5%), and grade 3 lung fibrosis in 2 (5%). In univariate analyses, the outcome was influenced neither by the type of surgery nor the use of postoperative RT. However, positive receptor status had a negative influence on the outcome. Multivariate analysis (Cox model) revealed that negative ER (p = 0.006) or PR (p = 0.04) status was associated with improved DFS. Conclusions: ACC of the breast is a relatively indolent disease with excellent local control and survival. The prognosis of patients with ACC is much better than that for patients with other breast cancers, especially those who are ER and PR negative. The role of postoperative RT is not clear. More aggressive treatments may be warranted for patients with positive receptor status.

Statistical analysis and modelling of weather radar beam propagation conditions in the Po Valley (Italy)

Ground clutter caused by anomalous propagation (anaprop) can affect seriously radar rain rate estimates, particularly in fully automatic radar processing systems, and, if not filtered, can produce frequent false alarms. A statistical study of anomalous propagation detected from two operational C-band radars in the northern Italian region of Emilia Romagna is discussed, paying particular attention to its diurnal and seasonal variability. The analysis shows a high incidence of anaprop in summer, mainly in the morning and evening, due to the humid and hot summer climate of the Po Valley, particularly in the coastal zone. Thereafter, a comparison between different techniques and datasets to retrieve the vertical profile of the refractive index gradient in the boundary layer is also presented. In particular, their capability to detect anomalous propagation conditions is compared. Furthermore, beam path trajectories are simulated using a multilayer ray-tracing model and the influence of the propagation conditions on the beam trajectory and shape is examined. High resolution radiosounding data are identified as the best available dataset to reproduce accurately the local propagation conditions, while lower resolution standard TEMP data suffers from interpolation degradation and Numerical Weather Prediction model data (Lokal Model) are able to retrieve a tendency to superrefraction but not to detect ducting conditions. Observing the ray tracing of the centre, lower and upper limits of the radar antenna 3-dB half-power main beam lobe it is concluded that ducting layers produce a change in the measured volume and in the power distribution that can lead to an additional error in the reflectivity estimate and, subsequently, in the estimated rainfall rate.

Outcome and Prognostic Factors in Adenosquamous Carcinoma of the Head and Neck: A Multicenter Rare Cancer Network Study

Purpose/Objective(s): Adenosquamous carcinoma (AC) of the head and neck is a distinct entity first described in 1968. Its natural history is more aggressive than squamous cell carcinoma but this is based on very small series reported in the literature. The goal of this study was to assess the clinical profile, outcome, patterns of failure and prognostic factors in patients with AC of the head and neck treated by radiation therapy (RT) with or without chemotherapy (CT).Materials/Methods: Data from 18 patients with Stage I (n = 3), II (n = 1), III (n = 4), or IVa (n = 10) AC, treated between 1989 and 2009, were collected in a retrospective multicenter Rare Cancer Network study. Median age was 60 years (range, 48 - 73 years). Fourteen patients were male and 4 female. Risk factors, including perineural invasion, lymphangitis, vascular invasion, positive margins, were present in 83% of the patients. Tumor sites included oral cavity in 4, oropharynx in 4, hypopharynx in2, larynx in 2, salivary glands in 2, nasal vestibule in 2, nasopharynx in 1, and maxillary sinus in 1 patient. Surgery (S) was performed in all but 5 patients. S alone was performed in only 1 patient, and definitive RT alone in 3 patients. Fourteen patients received combined modality treatment (S+RT in 10, RT+CT in 2, and all of the three modalities in 2 patients). Median RT dose to the primary and to the nodes was 66 Gy (range, 50 - 72 Gy) and 53 Gy (range, 44 - 66 Gy), respectively (1.8 - 2.0 Gy/fr., 5 fr./ week). In 4 patients, the planning treatment volume included the primary tumor site only. Seven patients were treated with 2D RT, 7 with 3D conformal RT, and 2 with intensity-modulated RT.Results: After a median follow-up period of 38 months (range, 9 - 62 months), 8 patients developed distant metastases (lung, bone, mediastinum, and liver), 6 presented nodal recurrences, and only 4 had a local relapse at the primary site (all in-field recurrences). At last follow-up, 6 patients were alive without disease, 1 alive with disease, 9 died from progressive disease, and 2 died from intercurrent disease. The 3-year and median overall survival, disease-free survival (DFS) and locoregional control rates were 52% (95% confidence interval [CI]: 28 - 76%) and 39 months, 36% (95% CI: 13 - 49%) and 12 months, and 54% (95% CI: 26 - 82%) and 40 months, respectively. In multivariate analysis (Cox model), DFS was negatively influenced by the presence of extracapsular extension (p = 0.02) and advanced stage (IV versus I-III, p = 0.003).Conclusions: Overall prognosis of locoregionally advanced AC remains poor, and distant metastases and nodal relapse occur in almost half of the cases. However, local control is relatively good, and early stage AC patients had prolonged DFS when treated with combined modality treatment.

The essential role of radiotherapy in the treatment of Merkel cell carcinoma: a study from the Rare Cancer Network.

PURPOSE: To evaluate the role of postoperative radiotherapy (RT) in Merkel cell carcinoma (MCC). METHODS AND MATERIALS: A retrospective multicenter study was performed in 180 patients with MCC treated between February 1988 and September 2009. Patients who had had surgery alone were compared with patients who received surgery and postoperative RT or radical RT. Local relapse-free survival (LRFS), regional relapse-free survival (RRFS), and distant metastasis-free survival (DMFS) rates were assessed together with disease-free survival (DFS), cancer-specific survival (CSS), and overall survival (OS) rates. RESULTS: Seventy-nine patients were male and 101 patients were female, and the median age was 73 years old (range, 38-93 years). The majority of patients had localized disease (n = 146), and the remaining patients had regional lymph node metastasis (n = 34). Forty-nine patients underwent surgery for the primary tumor without postoperative RT to the primary site; the other 131 patients received surgery for the primary tumor, followed by postoperative RT (n = 118) or a biopsy of the primary tumor followed by radical RT (n = 13). Median follow-up was 5 years (range, 0.2-16.5 years). Patients in the RT group had improved LRFS (93% vs. 64%; p < 0.001), RRFS (76% vs. 27%; p < 0.001), DMFS (70% vs. 42%; p = 0.01), DFS (59% vs. 4%; p < 0.001), and CSS (65% vs. 49%; p = 0.03) rates compared to patients who underwent surgery for the primary tumor alone; LRFS, RRFS, DMFS, and DFS rates remained significant with multivariable Cox regression analysis. However OS was not significantly improved by postoperative RT (56% vs. 46%; p = 0.2). CONCLUSIONS: After multivariable analysis, postoperative RT was associated with improved outcome and seems to be an important component in the multimodality treatment of MCC.

Twist mode in atomic Fermi gases

The quantum-kinetic energy of a finite number of trapped fermionic atoms provides a restoring force for shear motion due to a distortion of the momentum distribution. In analogy to the twist mode of nuclear physics, it is proposed that counter rotating the upper and lower hemisphere of a spherical atomic cloud yields a finite-frequency mode closely related to transverse zero sound waves in bulk Fermi liquids.

Energy and structure of dilute hard- and soft-sphere gases

The energy and structure of dilute hard- and soft-sphere Bose gases are systematically studied in the framework of several many-body approaches, such as the variational correlated theory, the Bogoliubov model, and the uniform limit approximation, valid in the weak-interaction regime. When possible, the results are compared with the exact diffusion Monte Carlo ones. Jastrow-type correlation provides a good description of the systems, both hard- and soft-spheres, if the hypernetted chain energy functional is freely minimized and the resulting Euler equation is solved. The study of the soft-sphere potentials confirms the appearance of a dependence of the energy on the shape of the potential at gas paremeter values of x~0.001. For quantities other than the energy, such as the radial distribution functions and the momentum distributions, the dependence appears at any value of x. The occurrence of a maximum in the radial distribution function, in the momentum distribution, and in the excitation spectrum is a natural effect of the correlations when x increases. The asymptotic behaviors of the functions characterizing the structure of the systems are also investigated. The uniform limit approach is very easy to implement and provides a good description of the soft-sphere gas. Its reliability improves when the interaction weakens.

Outcome and prognostic factors in olfactory neuroblastoma: a rare cancer network study.

Purpose: To assess the outcome in patients with olfactory neuroblastoma (ONB). Methods and Materials: Seventy-seven patients treated for nonmetastatic ONB between 1971 and 2004 were included. According to Kadish classification, there were 11 patients with Stage A, 29 with Stage B, and 37 with Stage C. T-classification included 9 patients with T1, 26 with T2, 16 with T3, 15 with T4a, and 11 with T4b tumors. Sixty-eight patients presented with N0 (88%) disease. Results: Most of the patients (n = 56, 73 %) benefited from surgery (S), and total excision was possible in 44 patients (R0 in 32, R1 in 13, R2 in 11). All but five patients benefited from RT, and chemotherapy was given in 21(27%). Median follow-up period was 72 months (range, 6-315). The 5-year overall survival (OS), disease-free survival (DES), locoregional control, and local control were 64%, 57%, 62%, and 70%, respectively. In univariate analyses, favorable factors were Kadish A or B disease, T1 T3 tumors, no nodal involvement, curative surgery, R0/R1 resection, and RT-dose 54 Gy or higher. Multivariate analysis revealed that the best independent factors predicting the outcome were T1 T3, N0, R0/R1 resection, and total RT dose (54 Gy or higher). Conclusion: In this multicenter retrospective study, patients with ONB treated with R0 or R1 surgical resection followed by at least 54-Gy postoperative RT had the best outcome. Novel strategies including concomitant chemotherapy and/or higher dose RT should be prospectively investigated in this rare disease for which local failure remains a problem.

Early stage primary bone lymphoma - a retrospective, multicenter rare cancer network (rcn) study

Purpose: Primary bone lymphoma (PBL) accounts for less than 1% of all malignant lymphomas, and 4-5% of all extra-nodal lymphomas. In this study, the disease profile, outcome, and prognostic factors were assessed in patients with stage I and II PBL.Patients and Methods: Thirteen Rare Cancer Network (RCN) institutions enrolled 116 consecutive patients with PBL treated between 1987 and 2008 in this study. Inclusion criteria were age > 16 years, stage I and II, minimum 6 months follow-up and a biopsy-proven confirmation of non-Hodgkin's lymphoma (NHL). Eighty-seven patients underwent chemoradiotherapy (CXRT), 15 radiotherapy (RT) without (13) or with (2) surgery, 14 chemotherapy (CXT) without (9) or with (5) surgery. Median RT dose was 40 Gy (range: 4-60). The median number of CXT cycles was 6 (range: 2-8). Median follow-up was 41 months (range: 6-242).Results: The overall response rate at the end of treatment was 91% (CR 74%, PR 17%). Local recurrence or progression was observed in 12 (10%) patients, and systemic recurrence in 17 (15%). Causes of death included disease progression in 21, unrelated in 5, CXT-related toxicity in 1, and second primary cancer in 2 patients. The 5-yr overall survival (OS), lymphoma-specific survival (LSS), and local control (LC) were 76%, 78% and 92%, respectively. In univariate analyses (log-rank test), favorable prognostic factors for OS were age <50 years (P=0.008), international prognostic index (IPI) score ≤1 (P=0.009), high grade histology (P=0.04), CXRT (P=0.05), CXT (P=0,0004), complete response (CR) (P<0.0001), number of CXT cycles ( ≥6 ) (P=0.01), and RT dose > 40 Gy (P=0.005). All above-mentioned parameters were also significant for LSS except for age and number of chemotherapy cycles. For LC, only CR and stage I were favorable factors. In multivariate analysis, IPI score, RT dose, complete response, and chemotherapy were independently influencing the outcome (OS and LSS). Complete response at the end of treatment was the only predicting factor for LC. Six patients developed grade 3 or more toxicities, according to Common Terminology Criteria for Adverse Events (CTCAE) V3.0.Conclusion: This large multicenter study confirms the relatively good prognosis of early stage PBL treated with combined CXRT. Local control was excellent, while systemic failures were rare. An adequate dose of RT (40 Gy or more) and complete CXT regime (≥ 6 cycles) were associated with better outcome.

Two-step chromatographic purification of human plasma alpha(1)-acid glycoprotein: its application to the purification of rare phenotype samples of the protein and their study by chromatography on immobilized metal chelate affinity adsorbent.

Alpha1-Acid glycoprotein (AAG) or orosomucoid was purified to homogeneity from human plasma by a separate two-step method using chromatography on immobilized Cibacron Blue F3G-A to cross-linked agarose and chromatography on hydroxyapatite. The conditions for the pre-purification of AAG by chromatography on immobilized Cibacron Blue F3G-A were first optimized using different buffer systems with different pH values. The overall yield of the combined techniques was 80% and ca. 12 mg of AAG were purified from an initial total amount of ca. 15 mg in a ca. 40 ml sample of human plasma. This method was applied to the purification of AAG samples corresponding to the three main phenotypes of the protein (FI*S/A, F1/A and S/A), from individual human plasma previously phenotyped for AAG. A study by isoelectric focusing with carrier ampholytes showed that the microheterogeneity of the purified F1*S/A, F1/A and S/A AAG samples was similar to that of AAG in the corresponding plasma, thus suggesting that no apparent desialylation of the glycoprotein occurred during the purification steps. This method was also applied to the purification of AAG samples corresponding to rare phenotypes of the protein (F1/A*AD, S/A*X0 and F1/A*C1) and the interactions of these variants with immobilized copper(II) ions were then studied at pH 7, by chromatography on an iminodiacetate Sepharose-Cu(II) gel. It was found that the different variants encoded by the first of the two genes coding for AAG in humans (i.e. the F1 and S variants) interacted non-specifically with the immobilized ligand, whereas those encoded by the second gene of AAG (i.e. the A, AD, X0 and C1 variants) strongly bound to immobilized Cu(II) ions. These results suggested that chromatography on an immobilized affinity Cu(II) adsorbent could be helpful to distinguish between the respective products of the two highly polymorphic genes which code for human AAG.

From Empirical Bayes to Full Bayes: Methods for Analysing Traffice Safety Data, October 25, 2004

Traffic safety engineers are among the early adopters of Bayesian statistical tools for analyzing crash data. As in many other areas of application, empirical Bayes methods were their first choice, perhaps because they represent an intuitively appealing, yet relatively easy to implement alternative to purely classical approaches. With the enormous progress in numerical methods made in recent years and with the availability of free, easy to use software that permits implementing a fully Bayesian approach, however, there is now ample justification to progress towards fully Bayesian analyses of crash data. The fully Bayesian approach, in particular as implemented via multi-level hierarchical models, has many advantages over the empirical Bayes approach. In a full Bayesian analysis, prior information and all available data are seamlessly integrated into posterior distributions on which practitioners can base their inferences. All uncertainties are thus accounted for in the analyses and there is no need to pre-process data to obtain Safety Performance Functions and other such prior estimates of the effect of covariates on the outcome of interest. In this slight, fully Bayesian methods may well be less costly to implement and may result in safety estimates with more realistic standard errors. In this manuscript, we present the full Bayesian approach to analyzing traffic safety data and focus on highlighting the differences between the empirical Bayes and the full Bayes approaches. We use an illustrative example to discuss a step-by-step Bayesian analysis of the data and to show some of the types of inferences that are possible within the full Bayesian framework.