Az olajár gyengülő makrogazdasági hatásai. Két versengő elmélet szintézise = Weakening macroeconomic effects of the oil price. A synthesis of two competing theories

Az 1970-es évek olajválságait követő stagflációs periódusok óta gyakorlatilag minden nagyobb áremelkedés alkalmával felerősödnek a kedvezőtlen makrogazdasági hatásokkal kapcsolatos félelmek, miközben a tapasztalat azt mutatja, hogy az importőröket egyre kevésbé érinti az olaj reálárának alakulása. A gyengülő hatások okaként Blanchard-Galí [2007] a gazdaságok hatékonyabb és rugalmasabb működését jelölte meg, míg Kilian [2010] szerint a 2000 utáni áremelkedést a kedvező világgazdasági környezet fűtötte, ami ellensúlyozta a magasabb ár okozta negatív folyamatokat. A tanulmány Kilian [2009] modelljének kiterjesztésével, időben változó paraméterű ökonometriai eljárással vizsgálja a két megközelítés összeegyeztethetőségét. Az eredmények a hipotézisek egymást kiegészítő kapcsolatára engednek következtetni, azaz a makrogazdasági következmények szempontjából nem maga az ár, hanem annak kiváltó okai lényegesek, ugyanakkor e mögöttes tényezők hatása az elmúlt évtizedekben folyamatosan változott. _____ Many economists argue that the stagflation periods of the 1970s were related to the two main oil crises. However, experience shows that these effects were eliminated over the decades, e. g. oil-importing economies enjoyed solid growth and low inflation when oil prices surged in the 2000s. Blanchard and Galí (2007) found that economies became more effective and elastic in handling high energy prices, while Kilian (2010) took as the main reason for the weakening macroeconomic effects of oil-price shocks the structural differences behind the price changes. The article sets out to test the compatibility of the two rival theories, using time-varying parameter models. The results show that both hypotheses can be correct concurrently: the structure of the change in price matters, but the impulse responses varied over time.

The use of treatment theories and procedures for postural control in adult with hemiplegia: A national survey

This study investigated the use of treatment theories and procedures for postural control training used by Occupational Therapists (OTs) when working with hemiplegic adults who have had cerebrovascular accident (CVA) or traumatic brain injury (TBI). The method of data collection was a national survey of 400 randomly selected physical disability OTs with 127 usable surveys returned. Results showed that the most common used treatment theory was neurodevelopmental treatment (NDT), followed by motor relearning program (MRP), proprioceptive neuromuscular facilitation (PNF), Brunnstrom's approach, and the approach of Rood. The most common treatment posture used was sitting, followed by standing, mat activity, equilibrium reaction training, and walking. The factors affecting the use of various treatment theories procedures were years certified, years of clinical experience, work situation and work status. Pearson correlation coefficient analyses found significant positive relationships between treatment theories and postures. There were significant high correlations between usage of all pairs of treatment procedures. ^

Management Training Theories: Tools for Hospitality Managers and Trainers

Management training in the hospitality industry is as important as employee training. There are a number of effective models and approaches for training effective managers. The author reviews these models and offers guidelines for maximizing the results from each of these approaches.

Radiogenic neodymium, strontium and lead isotopes of authigenic and detrital sedimentary phases and stable oxygen and carbon isotopes of benthic foraminifera from gravity cores SO213-59-2 and SO213-60-1 (central South Pacific).

The South Pacific is a sensitive location for the variability of the global oceanic thermohaline circulation given that deep waters from the Atlantic Ocean, the Southern Ocean, and the Pacific Basin are exchanged. Here we reconstruct the deep water circulation of the central South Pacific for the last two glacial cycles (from 240,000 years ago to the Holocene) based on radiogenic neodymium (Nd) and lead (Pb) isotope records complemented by benthic stable carbon data obtained from two sediment cores located on the flanks of the East Pacific Rise. The records show small but consistent glacial/interglacial changes in all three isotopic systems with interglacial average values of -5.8 and 18.757 for epsilon Nd and 206Pb/204Pb, respectively, whereas glacial averages are -5.3 and 18.744. Comparison of this variability of Circumpolar Deep Water (CDW) to previously published records along the pathway of the global thermohaline circulation is consistent with reduced admixture of North Atlantic Deep Water to CDW during cold stages. The absolute values and amplitudes of the benthic delta13C variations are essentially indistinguishable from other records of the Southern Hemisphere and confirm that the low central South Pacific sedimentation rates did not result in a significant reduction of the amplitude of any of the measured proxies. In addition, the combined detrital Nd and strontium (87Sr/86Sr) isotope signatures imply that Australian and New Zealand dust has remained the principal contributor of lithogenic material to the central South Pacific.

Modelling the size distribution of cosmic voids

The Standard Cosmological Model is generally accepted by the scientific community, there are still an amount of unresolved issues. From the observable characteristics of the structures in the Universe,it should be possible to impose constraints on the cosmological parameters. Cosmic Voids (CV) are a major component of the LSS and have been shown to possess great potential for constraining DE and testing theories of gravity. But a gap between CV observations and theory still persists. A theoretical model for void statistical distribution as a function of size exists (SvdW) However, the SvdW model has been unsuccesful in reproducing the results obtained from cosmological simulations. This undermines the possibility of using voids as cosmological probes. The goal of our thesis work is to cover the gap between theoretical predictions and measured distributions of cosmic voids. We develop an algorithm to identify voids in simulations,consistently with theory. We inspecting the possibilities offered by a recently proposed refinement of the SvdW (the Vdn model, Jennings et al., 2013). Comparing void catalogues to theory, we validate the Vdn model, finding that it is reliable over a large range of radii, at all the redshifts considered and for all the cosmological models inspected. We have then searched for a size function model for voids identified in a distribution of biased tracers. We find that, naively applying the same procedure used for the unbiased tracers to a halo mock distribution does not provide success- full results, suggesting that the Vdn model requires to be reconsidered when dealing with biased samples. Thus, we test two alternative exten- sions of the model and find that two scaling relations exist: both the Dark Matter void radii and the underlying Dark Matter density contrast scale with the halo-defined void radii. We use these findings to develop a semi-analytical model which gives promising results.

Gravity with multiple tariff schemes

This study contributes to the literature on gravity analysis by explicitly incorporating both most favored nation (MFN) rates and regional trade agreement (RTA) rates. Our gravity equation considers the fact that all exporters do not necessarily utilize RTA schemes, even when exporting to their RTA partners. We apply the tariff line–level data on worldwide trade to this gravity equation. As a result, we find a significantly negative coefficient for the (log) ratio of RTA rates to MFN rates. From the quantitative point of view, we show that in the first year of the Japan–Australia Economic Partnership (i.e., 2015), exports from Australia to Japan are expected to increase by 6% compared with the exports in 2014. Furthermore, it is shown that, based on the subsequent reduction in RTA rates, the magnitude of the trade-creation effect through tariff reductions gradually rises over time.

Annotated record of the detailed examination of Mn deposits from the CLIMAX II (SCAN) Expedition stations aboard R/V Argo in the central North Pacific

A 0.25 m US Naval Electronics Lab box corer was used to take replicate samples from an oligotrophic bottom under the North Pacific Central Water Mass (approx. 28 degrees N, 155 degrees W). The bottom is a red clay with manganese nodules at a depth of 5500-5800 m. Macrofaunal density ranges from 84 to 160 individuals per m super(2) and is therefore much the same as in Northwest Atlantic Gyre waters. Of the macrofaunal taxa, polychaetes dominate (55 per cent), followed by tanaids (18 per cent), bivalves (7 per cent), and isopods (6 per cent). Meiofaunal taxa were only partially retained by the 297 micrometer screen used in washing. Even then, they are 1.5-3.9 times as abundant as the microfaunal taxa, with nematodes being numerically dominant by far. Foraminifera seem to comprise an important portion of the community, but could not be assessed accurately because of the inability to discriminate living and dead tests. Remains of what are probably xenophyophoridans are also very important, but offer the same problem. Faunal diversity is extremely high, with deposit feeders comprising the overwhelming majority. Most spp are rare, being encountered only once. The distributions of only 3 spp show any significant deviation from randomness. The polychaete fauna from box cores collected from 90 m to the north was not significantly different from that of the principal study locality. Concordance appeared at several taxonomic levels, from spp through microfaunal/ meiofaunal relationships. As a result, the variation in total animal abundance shows aggregation among cores. The authors discuss Sokolova's concept of a deep-sea oligotrophic zone dominated by suspension feeders, and reconcile it with our present findings. The high diversity of the fauna combined with the low food level contradict theories that relate diversity directly with productivity.

Sedimentology on cores off Filchner Shelf Ice, Weddell Sea, Antarctica

The sediments of 14 box cores and 7 gravity cores, mainly taken directly in front of the Filchner(-Ronne) ice shelf northwest of Berkner Island (Weddell Sea), allowed to distinguish six sediment types. On the one hand,the retreat of the at first grounded and then floated ice from the last glacial maximum is documented. On the other hand,the sediments give an insight into extensive Holocene sediment deposition and remobilization northwest of Berkner Island. The ortho till was deposited directly by the grounded ice sheet and is lacking any marine influence. After floating of the ice shelf, partly very weIl stratified, partly unstratified, non-bioturbated paratill is deposited beneath the ice shelf. Lack of IRD-content in the paratill immediately above the orthotill indicates freezing at the bottom of the ice, at least for a short period after the ice became afloat. The orthotill and paratill contain small amounts of fragmented Tertiary diatoms, which allow the conclusion, that glacial-marine sediments in the accumulation area of the Ronne ice shelf will be eroded and later deposited by ice in the investigation area. Starting of bioturbation and therefore change in sedimentation from paratill to bioturbated paratill,is caused by the retreat of the ice shelf to its actual position. Isostatic uplift of the sea-bed after the Ice Age causes minor water depths with higher current velocities. The fine-fraction is eroding and mean particle-size will increase. Maybe, also isostatic uplift is responsible for repeated great advances of the floated ice shelf as shown in an erosional horizon in some cores containing bioturbated paratill. Postglacial sediment-thicknesses exceed 3 m. Assuming floating of the ice 15.000 YBP, accumulation rates reach nearly 20cm/lOOO years. Following the theories about sediment input in front of wide ice shelves, this was not expected. In the shallower water depths of Berkner Bank, the oscillations of the ice shelf are recorded in the sediments. Sorting and redistribution by high current velocities from beneath the ice up to the calving line, lead to the deposition of the weIl to very weIl sorted sandy till. In front of the calving line the finer fraction will settle down. Remobilization is possible by bioturbation and increasing current-velocity. According to the intensity of mixing of the sandy till with the fine fraction, modified till or muddy till results.

Note on the gauge symmetries of unimodular gravity

The symmetries of unimodular gravity are clarified somewhat.

Disformal scalars as dark matter candidates: Branon phenomenology

Scalar particles coupled to the Standard Model fields through a disformal coupling arise in different theories, such as massive gravity or braneworld models. We will review the main phenomenology associated with such particles. Distinctive disformal signatures could be measured at colliders and with astrophysical observations. The phenomeno-logical relevance of the disformal coupling demands the introduction of a set of symmetries, which may ensure the stability of these new degrees of freedom. In such a case, they constitute natural dark matter candidates since they are generally massive and weakly coupled. We will illustrate these ideas by paying particular attention to the branon case, since these questions arise naturally in braneworld models with low tension, where they were first discussed.

Prospects for probabilistic theories of natural information

Peer reviewed

Distinguishing tectonically-and gravity-driven synsedimentary deformation structures along the Apulian platform margin (Gargano Promontory, southern Italy)

Acknowledgements This work has been supported by Reservoir Characterisation Project (www.rechproject.com) and FAR Project 2014 "Characterisation and modelling of natural reservoirs of geofluids in fractured carbonate rocks", funded by the University of Camerino, coordinator Emanuele Tondi.

Do the Messages Matter? An Investigation of Classroom Messages and College Students’ Personal Theories about Education

Students hold a number of personal theories about education that influence motivation and achievement in the classroom: theories about their own abilities, knowledge, and the learning process. Therefore, college instructors have a great interest in helping to develop adaptive personal theories in their students. The current studies investigated whether specific messages that instructors send in college classroom might serve as a mechanism of personal theory development. Across 2 studies, 17 college instructors and 401 students completed surveys assessing their personal theories about education at the beginning and end of college courses. Students and instructors reported hearing and sending many messages in the classroom, including instructor help messages, conciliatory messages, uncertainty in the field messages, differential ability messages and generalized positive and negative feedback. Between-class and within-class differences in message reports were associated with students’ personal theories at the end of their courses, controlling for initial personal theories. Students’ initial personal theories were also related to the messages students reported hearing. The findings demonstrate the utility of assessing non-content messages in college classrooms as potential mechanisms for changing students’ personal theories in college. Implications for research and practice are discussed.

Moduli Space of (0,2) Conformal Field Theories

In this thesis we study aspects of (0,2) superconformal field theories (SCFTs), which are suitable for compactification of the heterotic string. In the first part, we study a class of (2,2) SCFTs obtained by fibering a Landau-Ginzburg (LG) orbifold CFT over a compact K\"ahler base manifold. While such models are naturally obtained as phases in a gauged linear sigma model (GLSM), our construction is independent of such an embedding. We discuss the general properties of such theories and present a technique to study the massless spectrum of the associated heterotic compactification. We test the validity of our method by applying it to hybrid phases of GLSMs and comparing spectra among the phases. In the second part, we turn to the study of the role of accidental symmetries in two-dimensional (0,2) SCFTs obtained by RG flow from (0,2) LG theories. These accidental symmetries are ubiquitous, and, unlike in the case of (2,2) theories, their identification is key to correctly identifying the IR fixed point and its properties. We develop a number of tools that help to identify such accidental symmetries in the context of (0,2) LG models and provide a conjecture for a toric structure of the SCFT moduli space in a large class of models. In the final part, we study the stability of heterotic compactifications described by (0,2) GLSMs with respect to worldsheet instanton corrections to the space-time superpotential following the work of Beasley and Witten. We show that generic models elude the vanishing theorem proved there, and may not determine supersymmetric heterotic vacua. We then construct a subclass of GLSMs for which a vanishing theorem holds.