Climate change impact assessment: Uncertainty modeling with imprecise probability

Hydrologic impacts of climate change are usually assessed by downscaling the General Circulation Model (GCM) output of large-scale climate variables to local-scale hydrologic variables. Such an assessment is characterized by uncertainty resulting from the ensembles of projections generated with multiple GCMs, which is known as intermodel or GCM uncertainty. Ensemble averaging with the assignment of weights to GCMs based on model evaluation is one of the methods to address such uncertainty and is used in the present study for regional-scale impact assessment. GCM outputs of large-scale climate variables are downscaled to subdivisional-scale monsoon rainfall. Weights are assigned to the GCMs on the basis of model performance and model convergence, which are evaluated with the Cumulative Distribution Functions (CDFs) generated from the downscaled GCM output (for both 20th Century [20C3M] and future scenarios) and observed data. Ensemble averaging approach, with the assignment of weights to GCMs, is characterized by the uncertainty caused by partial ignorance, which stems from nonavailability of the outputs of some of the GCMs for a few scenarios (in Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change [IPCC] data distribution center for Assessment Report 4 [AR4]). This uncertainty is modeled with imprecise probability, i.e., the probability being represented as an interval gray number. Furthermore, the CDF generated with one GCM is entirely different from that with another and therefore the use of multiple GCMs results in a band of CDFs. Representing this band of CDFs with a single valued weighted mean CDF may be misleading. Such a band of CDFs can only be represented with an envelope that contains all the CDFs generated with a number of GCMs. Imprecise CDF represents such an envelope, which not only contains the CDFs generated with all the available GCMs but also to an extent accounts for the uncertainty resulting from the missing GCM output. This concept of imprecise probability is also validated in the present study. The imprecise CDFs of monsoon rainfall are derived for three 30-year time slices, 2020s, 2050s and 2080s, with A1B, A2 and B1 scenarios. The model is demonstrated with the prediction of monsoon rainfall in Orissa meteorological subdivision, which shows a possible decreasing trend in the future.

Essays on Russia's Economic Transition

This study comprises an introductory section and three essays analysing Russia's economic transition from the early 1990s up to the present. The papers present a combination of both theoretical and empirical analysis on some of the key issues Russia has faced during its somewhat troublesome transformation from state-controlled command economy to market-based economy. The first essay analyses fiscal competition for mobile capital between identical regions in a transition country. A standard tax competition framework is extended to account for two features of a transition economy: the presence of two sectors, old and new, which differ in productivity; and a non-benevolent regional decision-maker. It is shown that in very early phase of transition, when the old sector clearly dominates, consumers in a transition economy may be better off in a competitive equilibrium. Decision-makers, on the other hand, will prefer to coordinate their fiscal policies. The second essay uses annual data for 1992-2003 to examine income dispersion and convergence across 76 Russian regions. Wide disparities in income levels have indeed emerged during the transition period. Dispersion has increased most among the initially better-off regions, whereas for the initially poorer regions no clear trend of divergence or convergence could be established. Further, some - albeit not highly robust - evidence was found of both unconditional and conditional convergence, especially among the initially richer regions. Finally, it is observed that there is much less evidence of convergence after the economic crisis of 1998. The third essay analyses industrial firms' engagement in provision of infrastructure services, such as heating, electricity and road maintenance. Using a unique dataset of 404 large and medium-sized industrial enterprises in 40 regions of Russia, the essay examines public infrastructure provision by Russian industrial enterprises. It is found that to a large degree engagement in infrastructure provision, as proxied by district heating production, is a Soviet legacy. Secondly, firms providing district heating to users outside their plant area are more likely to have close and multidimensional relations with the local public sector.

Determination of optimal trajectory under design constraints for a satellite launch vehicle

An optimal pitch steering programme of a solid-fuel satellite launch vehicle to maximize either (1) the injection velocity at a given altitude, or (2) the size of circular orbit, for a given payload is presented. The two-dimensional model includes the rotation of atmosphere with the Earth, the vehicle's lift and drag, variation of thrust with time and altitude, inverse-square gravitational field, and the specified initial vertical take-off. The inequality constraints on the aerodynamic load, control force, and turning rates are also imposed. Using the properties of the central force motion the terminal constraint conditions at coast apogee are transferred to the penultimate stage burnout. Such a transformation converts a time-free problem into a time-fixed one, reduces the number of terminal constraints, improves accuracy, besides demanding less computer memory and time. The adjoint equations are developed in a compact matrix form. The problem is solved on an IBM 360/44 computer using a steepest ascent algorithm. An illustrative analysis of a typical launch vehicle establishes the speed of convergence, and accuracy and applicability of the algorithm.

Optimal iterative schemes for computing the Moore-Penrose matrix inverse

Among the iterative schemes for computing the Moore — Penrose inverse of a woll-conditioned matrix, only those which have an order of convergence three or two are computationally efficient. A Fortran programme for these schemes is provided.

Numerical study of heat transfer in laminar film boiling by the finite-difference method

The finite-difference form of the basic conservation equations in laminar film boiling have been solved by the false-transient method. By a judicious choice of the coordinate system the vapour-liquid interface is fitted to the grid system. Central differencing is used for diffusion terms, upwind differencing for convection terms, and explicit differencing for transient terms. Since an explicit method is used the time step used in the false-transient method is constrained by numerical instability. In the present problem the limits on the time step are imposed by conditions in the vapour region. On the other hand the rate of convergence of finite-difference equations is dependent on the conditions in the liquid region. The rate of convergence was accelerated by using the over-relaxation technique in the liquid region. The results obtained compare well with previous work and experimental data available in the literature.

The effect of suction on boundary layer for rotating flows with or without magnetic field

The effect of suction on the steady laminar incompressible boundarylayer flow for a stationary infinite disc with or without magnetic field, when the fluid at a large distance from the surface of the disc undergoes a solid body rotation, has been studied. The governing coupled nonlinear equations have been solved numerically using the shooting method with least square convergence criterion. It has been found that suction tends to reduce the velocity overshoot and damp the oscillation.

Co-Signaling by Neurotrophic Factors and the Extracellular Matrix for Axonal Growth and Neuronal Survival

Neurotrophic factors (NTFs) and the extracellular matrix (ECM) are important regulators of axonal growth and neuronal survival in mammalian nervous system. Understanding of the mechanisms of this regulation is crucial for the development of posttraumatic therapies and drug intervention in the injured nervous system. NTFs act as soluble, target-derived extracellular regulatory molecules for a wide range of physiological functions including axonal guidance and the regulation of programmed cell death in the nervous system. The ECM determines cell adhesion and regulates multiple physiological functions via short range cell-matrix interactions. The present work focuses on the mechanisms of the action of NTFs and the ECM on axonal growth and survival of cultured sensory neurons from dorsal root ganglia (DRG). We first examined signaling mechanisms of the action of the glial cell line-derived neurotrophic factor (GDNF) family ligands (GFLs) on axonal growth. GDNF, neurturin (NRTN) and artemin (ART) but not persephin (PSPN) promoted axonal initiation in cultured DRG neurons from young adult mice. This effect required Src family kinase (SFK) activity. In neurons from GFRalpha2-deficient mice, NRTN did not significantly promote axonal initiation. GDNF and NRTN induced extensive lamellipodia formation on neuronal somata and growth cones. This study suggested that GDNF, NRTN and ARTN may serve as stimulators of nerve regeneration under posttraumatic conditions. Consequently we studied the convergence of signaling pathways induced by NTFs and the ECM molecule laminin in the intracellular signaling network that regulates axonal growth. We demonstrated that co-stimulation of DRG neurons with NTFs (GDNF, NRTN or nerve growth factor (NGF)) and laminin leads to axonal growth that requires activation of SFKs. A different, SFK-independent signaling pathway evoked axonal growth on laminin in the absence of the NTFs. In contrast, axonal branching was regulated by SFKs both in the presence and in the absence of NGF. We proposed and experimentally verified a Boolean model of the signaling network triggered by NTFs and laminin. Our results put forward an approach for predictable, Boolean logics-driven pharmacological manipulation of a complex signaling network. Finally we found that N-syndecan, the receptor for the ECM component HB-GAM was required for the survival of neonatal sensory neurons in vitro. We demonstrated massive cell death of cultured DRG neurons from mice deficient in the N-syndecan gene as compared to wild type controls. Importantly, this cell death could not be prevented by NGF the neurotrophin which activates multiple anti-apoptotic cascades in DRG neurons. The survival deficit was observed during first postnatal week. By contrast, DRG neurons from young adult N-syndecan knock-out mice exhibited normal survival. This study identifies a completely new syndecan-dependent type of signaling that regulates cell death in neurons.