A monthly indicator of Brazilian GDP. The Brazilian business cycle and growth cycle

This paper constructs an indicator of Brazilian GDP at the monthly ftequency. The peculiar instability and abrupt changes of regimes in the dynamic behavior of the Brazilian business cycle were explicitly modeled within nonlinear ftameworks. In particular, a Markov switching dynarnic factor model was used to combine several macroeconomic variables that display simultaneous comovements with aggregate economic activity. The model generates as output a monthly indicator of the Brazilian GDP and real time probabilities of the current phase of the Brazilian business cycle. The monthly indicator shows a remarkable historical conformity with cyclical movements of GDP. In addition, the estimated filtered probabilities predict ali recessions in sample and out-of-sample. The ability of the indicator in linear forecasting growth rates of GDP is also examined. The estimated indicator displays a better in-sample and out-of-sample predictive performance in forecasting growth rates of real GDP, compared to a linear autoregressive model for GDP. These results suggest that the estimated monthly indicator can be used to forecast GDP and to monitor the state of the Brazilian economy in real time.

Notes on cyclical tendency to the overvaluation of the real

This note addresses the question “To what extent financial regulation in Brazil was effective in neutralizing the tendency to the overvaluation of the exchange rate in Brazil since the 1994 Real Plan?” Aiming at answering this question, this note is organized as follows: after this short introduction, we briefly describe the Brazilian exchange rate behavior after the Real Plan, emphasizing its key role in keeping prices stable. In section 3, the recent measures adopted by the Brazilian Central Bank (BCB) aiming at avoiding the overvaluation of real will be summarized. In section 4, we argue in favor of a new policy mix that could avoid overvaluation of the currency. Finally, some issues will be raised in order to effectively neutralize the overvaluation of real.

Criteria for analysis of the structure of electronic scientific journals

This paper is the result of the Masters dissertation studying the role and history of scientific communication, especially the changes that have occurred after the appearance of electronic communication and computer networks. This study showed that hypertext systems are increasingly being used in the scientific and academic world in the production of electronic journals; this makes it possible for the user to rapidly access information in their area. However, these systems need to be improved to help the user during search and access to information. Both printed journals migrating to electronic media, and the exclusively electronic journals should present the current quality indicators. The attempt was made to discover whether characteristics related to printed journals are being maintained in their electronic counterparts. For this, a prototype model was developed to analyze the structure of electronic scientific journals; it composes 14 criteria expressing aspects of quality for these journals. It includes elements of Website Information Architecture and those already in place in printed scientific journals in order to ensure that basic functions - archiving and dissemination - are maintained in electronic publishing. Each criterion consists of variables, which measure the maintenance of these functions both in the migrating printed journals and the exclusively electronic ones. This prototype model was used to analyze Ciência da Informação On-line and DataGramaZero - Revista de Ciência da Informação. Results indicate that this model is able to find out if the basic functions of archiving and dissemination are being maintained in electronic journals. Therefore, its implementation is justified in electronic journals. The model can help librarians, authors, and users of electronic journals to identify quality journals, and assist editors in developing their projects. The material from the study may be included in the preservice and inservice education of Information Science professionals and to support editors of scientific journals.

Random regression models using different functions to model test-day milk yield of Brazilian Holstein cows

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

Desenvolvimento de um ambiente para projeto de controladores fuzzy para dispositivos móveis

Fuzzy intelligent systems are present in a variety of equipment ranging from household appliances to Fuzzy intelligent systems are present in a variety of equipment ranging from household appliances to small devices such as digital cameras and cell phones being used primarily for dealing with the uncertainties in the modeling of real systems. However, commercial implementations of Fuzzy systems are not general purpose and do not have portability to different hardware platforms. Thinking about these issues this work presents the implementation of an open source development environment that consists of a desktop system capable of generate Graphically a general purpose Fuzzy controller and export these parameters for an embedded system with a Fuzzy controller written in Java Platform Micro Edition To (J2ME), whose modular design makes it portable to any mobile device that supports J2ME. Thus, the proposed development platform is capable of generating all the parameters of a Fuzzy controller and export it in XML file, and the code responsible for the control logic that is embedded in the mobile device is able to read this file and start the controller. All the parameters of a Fuzzy controller are configurable using the desktop system, since the membership functions and rule base, even the universe of discourse of the linguistic terms of output variables. This system generates Fuzzy controllers for the interpolation model of Takagi-Sugeno. As the validation process and testing of the proposed solution the Fuzzy controller was embedded on the mobile device Sun SPOT ® and used to control a plant-level Quanser®, and to compare the Fuzzy controller generated by the system with other types of controllers was implemented and embedded in sun spot a PID controller to control the same level plant of Quanser®

Monitoramento em tempo real de processos fermentativos por espectroscopia no infravermelho próximo (NIRS)

A chemical process optimization and control is strongly correlated with the quantity of information can be obtained from the system. In biotechnological processes, where the transforming agent is a cell, many variables can interfere in the process, leading to changes in the microorganism metabolism and affecting the quantity and quality of final product. Therefore, the continuously monitoring of the variables that interfere in the bioprocess, is crucial to be able to act on certain variables of the system, keeping it under desirable operational conditions and control. In general, during a fermentation process, the analysis of important parameters such as substrate, product and cells concentration, is done off-line, requiring sampling, pretreatment and analytical procedures. Therefore, this steps require a significant run time and the use of high purity chemical reagents to be done. In order to implement a real time monitoring system for a benchtop bioreactor, these study was conducted in two steps: (i) The development of a software that presents a communication interface between bioreactor and computer based on data acquisition and process variables data recording, that are pH, temperature, dissolved oxygen, level, foam level, agitation frequency and the input setpoints of the operational parameters of the bioreactor control unit; (ii) The development of an analytical method using near-infrared spectroscopy (NIRS) in order to enable substrate, products and cells concentration monitoring during a fermentation process for ethanol production using the yeast Saccharomyces cerevisiae. Three fermentation runs were conducted (F1, F2 and F3) that were monitored by NIRS and subsequent sampling for analytical characterization. The data obtained were used for calibration and validation, where pre-treatments combined or not with smoothing filters were applied to spectrum data. The most satisfactory results were obtained when the calibration models were constructed from real samples of culture medium removed from the fermentation assays F1, F2 and F3, showing that the analytical method based on NIRS can be used as a fast and effective method to quantify cells, substrate and products concentration what enables the implementation of insitu real time monitoring of fermentation processes

Analytical and semi-analytical analysis of an artificial satellite's rotational motion

The rotational motion of an artificial satellite is studied by considering torques produced by gravity gradient and direct solar radiation pressure. A satellite of circular cylinder shape is considered here, and Andoyers variables are used to describe the rotational motion. Expressions for direct solar radiation torque are derived. When the earth's shadow is not considered, an analytical solution is obtained using Lagrange's method of variation of parameters. A semi-analytical procedure is proposed to predict the satellite's attitude under the influence of the earth's shadow. The analytical solution shows that angular variables are linear and periodic functions of time while their conjugates suffer only periodic variations. When compared, numerical and analytical solutions have a good agreement during the time range considered.

LMI-based algorithm for strictly positive real systems with static output feedback

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

Power flow for primary distribution networks considering uncertainty in demand and user connection

This paper presents a method for calculating the power flow in distribution networks considering uncertainties in the distribution system. Active and reactive power are used as uncertain variables and probabilistically modeled through probability distribution functions. Uncertainty about the connection of the users with the different feeders is also considered. A Monte Carlo simulation is used to generate the possible load scenarios of the users. The results of the power flow considering uncertainty are the mean values and standard deviations of the variables of interest (voltages in all nodes, active and reactive power flows, etc.), giving the user valuable information about how the network will behave under uncertainty rather than the traditional fixed values at one point in time. The method is tested using real data from a primary feeder system, and results are presented considering uncertainty in demand and also in the connection. To demonstrate the usefulness of the approach, the results are then used in a probabilistic risk analysis to identify potential problems of undervoltage in distribution systems. (C) 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Development of a real-time PCR method for rapid sexing of human preimplantation embryos

Genes on the X chromosome are known to be responsible for more than 200 hereditary diseases. After IVF, the simple selection of embryo sex before uterine transfer can prevent the occurrence of affected offspring among couples at risk for these genetic disorders. The aim of this investigation was to develop a rapid method of preimplantation genetic diagnosis (PGD) using real-time polymerase chain reaction (PCR) for the sexing of human embryos, and to compare it to the fluorescence in-situ hybridization technique, considered to be the gold standard. After biopsies were obtained from 40 surplus non-viable embryos for transfer, a total of 98 blastomeres were analysed. It was possible to analyse 24 embryos (60%) by both techniques, generating a total of 70 blastomeres (35 per technique), white 28 blastomeres from 16 embryos (40%) were analysed only by real-time PCR. A rapid and safe method was developed in the present study for the sexual diagnosis of a single human cell (blastomere and buccal cell) using the emerging technology of real-time PCR. (C) 2009, Reproductive Healthcare Ltd. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Optimisation of a continuous flash fermentation for butanol production using the response surface methodology

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

Schur-SzegA composition of entire functions

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

Distances between critical points and midpoints of zeros of hyperbolic polynomials

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

Dynamics of Bose-Einstein condensates in cigar-shaped traps

The Gross-Pitaevskii equation for a Bose-Einstein condensate confined in an elongated cigar-shaped trap is reduced to an effective system of nonlinear equations depending on only one space coordinate along the trap axis. The radial distribution of the condensate density and its radial velocity are approximated by Gaussian functions with real and imaginary exponents, respectively, with parameters depending on the axial coordinate and time. The effective one-dimensional system is applied to a description of the ground state of the condensate, to dark and bright solitons, to the sound and radial compression waves propagating in a dense condensate, and to weakly nonlinear waves in repulsive condensate. In the low-density limit our results reproduce the known formulas. In the high-density case our description of solitons goes beyond the standard approach based on the nonlinear Schrodinger equation. The dispersion relations for the sound and radial compression waves are obtained in a wide region of values of the condensate density. The Korteweg-de Vries equation for weakly nonlinear waves is derived and the existence of bright solitons on a constant background is predicted for a dense enough condensate with a repulsive interaction between the atoms.

On the calculation of inner products of Schur functions

Two methods for calculating inner products of Schur functions in terms of outer products and plethysms are given and they are easy to implement on a machine. One of these is derived from a recent analysis of the SO(8) proton-neutron pairing model of atomic nuclei. The two methods allow for generation of inner products for the Schur functions of degree up to 20 and even beyond.