Uncertainties in annual riverine phosphorus load estimation: Impact of load estimation methodology, sampling frequency, baseflow index and catchment population density

Models developed to identify the rates and origins of nutrient export from land to stream require an accurate assessment of the nutrient load present in the water body in order to calibrate model parameters and structure. These data are rarely available at a representative scale and in an appropriate chemical form except in research catchments. Observational errors associated with nutrient load estimates based on these data lead to a high degree of uncertainty in modelling and nutrient budgeting studies. Here, daily paired instantaneous P and flow data for 17 UK research catchments covering a total of 39 water years (WY) have been used to explore the nature and extent of the observational error associated with nutrient flux estimates based on partial fractions and infrequent sampling. The daily records were artificially decimated to create 7 stratified sampling records, 7 weekly records, and 30 monthly records from each WY and catchment. These were used to evaluate the impact of sampling frequency on load estimate uncertainty. The analysis underlines the high uncertainty of load estimates based on monthly data and individual P fractions rather than total P. Catchments with a high baseflow index and/or low population density were found to return a lower RMSE on load estimates when sampled infrequently than those with a tow baseflow index and high population density. Catchment size was not shown to be important, though a limitation of this study is that daily records may fail to capture the full range of P export behaviour in smaller catchments with flashy hydrographs, leading to an underestimate of uncertainty in Load estimates for such catchments. Further analysis of sub-daily records is needed to investigate this fully. Here, recommendations are given on load estimation methodologies for different catchment types sampled at different frequencies, and the ways in which this analysis can be used to identify observational error and uncertainty for model calibration and nutrient budgeting studies. (c) 2006 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Annular variability and eddy-zonal flow interactions in a simplified atmospheric GCM. Part 1: Characterization of high and low frequency behaviour

Experiments have been performed using a simplified, Newtonian forced, global circulation model to investigate how variability of the tropospheric jet can be characterized by examining the combined fluctuations of the two leading modes of annular variability. Eddy forcing of this variability is analyzed in the phase space of the leading modes using the vertically integrated momentum budget. The nature of the annular variability and eddy forcing depends on the time scale. At low frequencies the zonal flow and baroclinic eddies are in quasi equilibrium and anomalies propagate poleward. The eddies are shown primarily to reinforce the anomalous state and are closely balanced by the linear damping, leaving slow evolution as a residual. At high frequencies the flow is strongly evolving and anomalies are initiated on the poleward side of the tropospheric jet and propagate equatorward. The eddies are shown to drive this evolution strongly: eddy location and amplitude reflect the past baroclinicity, while eddy feedback on the zonal flow may be interpreted in terms of wave breaking associated with baroclinic life cycles in lateral shear.

Do High-Frequency Eddies Contribute to Low-Frequency Teleconnection Tendencies?*

An isentropic potential vorticity (PV) budget analysis is employed to examine the role of synoptic transients, advection, and nonconservative processes as forcings for the evolution of the low-frequency PV anomalies locally and those associated with the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and the Pacific–North American (PNA) pattern. Specifically, the rate of change of the low-frequency PV is expressed as a sum of tendencies due to divergence of eddy transport, advection by the low-frequency flow (hereafter referred to as advection), and the residual nonconservative processes. The balance between the variances and covariances of these terms is illustrated using a novel vector representation. It is shown that for most locations, as well as for the PNA pattern, the PV variability is dominantly driven by advection. The eddy forcing explains a small amount of the tendency variance. For the NAO, the role of synoptic eddy fluxes is found to be stronger, explaining on average 15% of the NAO tendency variance. Previous studies have not assessed quantitively how the various forcings balance the tendency. Thus, such studies may have overestimated the role of eddy fluxes for the evolution of teleconnections by examining, for example, composites and regressions that indicate maintenance, rather than evolution driven by the eddies. The authors confirm this contrasting view by showing that during persistent blocking (negative NAO) episodes the eddy driving is relatively stronger.

Right ventromedial and dorsolateral prefrontal cortices mediate adaptive decisions under ambiguity by integrating choice utility and outcome evaluation.

The Iowa gambling task (IGT) is one of the most influential behavioral paradigms in reward-related decision making and has been, most notably, associated with ventromedial prefrontal cortex function. However, performance in the IGT relies on a complex set of cognitive subprocesses, in particular integrating information about the outcome of choices into a continuously updated decision strategy under ambiguous conditions. The complexity of the task has made it difficult for neuroimaging studies to disentangle the underlying neurocognitive processes. In this study, we used functional magnetic resonance imaging in combination with a novel adaptation of the task, which allowed us to examine separately activation associated with the moment of decision or the evaluation of decision outcomes. Importantly, using whole-brain regression analyses with individual performance, in combination with the choice/outcome history of individual subjects, we aimed to identify the neural overlap between areas that are involved in the evaluation of outcomes and in the progressive discrimination of the relative value of available choice options, thus mapping the two fundamental cognitive processes that lead to adaptive decision making. We show that activation in right ventromedial and dorsolateral prefrontal cortex was predictive of adaptive performance, in both discriminating disadvantageous from advantageous decisions and confirming negative decision outcomes. We propose that these two prefrontal areas mediate shifting away from disadvantageous choices through their sensitivity to accumulating negative outcomes. These findings provide functional evidence of the underlying processes by which these prefrontal subregions drive adaptive choice in the task, namely through contingency-sensitive outcome evaluation.

Bilateral high-frequency stimulation of the subthalamic nucleus on attentional performance: transient deleterious effects and enhanced motivation in both intact and parkinsonian rats.

It is now well established that subthalamic nucleus high-frequency stimulation (STN HFS) alleviates motor problems in Parkinson's disease. However, its efficacy for cognitive function remains a matter of debate. The aim of this study was to assess the effects of STN HFS in rats performing a visual attentional task. Bilateral STN HFS was applied in intact and in bilaterally dopamine (DA)-depleted rats. In all animals, STN HFS had a transient debilitating effect on all the variables measured in the task. In DA-depleted rats, STN HFS did not alleviate the deficits induced by the DA lesion such as omissions and latency to make correct responses, but induced perseverative approaches to the food magazine, an indicator of enhanced motivation. In sham-operated controls, STN HFS significantly reduced accuracy and induced perseverative behaviour, mimicking partially the effects of bilateral STN lesions in the same task. These results are in line with the hypothesis that STN HFS only partially mimics inactivation of STN produced by lesioning and confirm the motivational exacerbation induced by STN inactivation.

Mediating between hearer's and speaker's views in the generation of adaptive explanations

In this article, we examine the case of a system that cooperates with a “direct” user to plan an activity that some “indirect” user, not interacting with the system, should perform. The specific application we consider is the prescription of drugs. In this case, the direct user is the prescriber and the indirect user is the person who is responsible for performing the therapy. Relevant characteristics of the two users are represented in two user models. Explanation strategies are represented in planning operators whose preconditions encode the cognitive state of the indirect user; this allows tailoring the message to the indirect user's characteristics. Expansion of optional subgoals and selection among candidate operators is made by applying decision criteria represented as metarules, that negotiate between direct and indirect users' views also taking into account the context where explanation is provided. After the message has been generated, the direct user may ask to add or remove some items, or change the message style. The system defends the indirect user's needs as far as possible by mentioning the rationale behind the generated message. If needed, the plan is repaired and the direct user model is revised accordingly, so that the system learns progressively to generate messages suited to the preferences of people with whom it interacts.

An adaptive finite element water column model using the Mellor-Yamada level 2.5 turbulence closure scheme

A one-dimensional water column model using the Mellor and Yamada level 2.5 parameterization of vertical turbulent fluxes is presented. The model equations are discretized with a mixed finite element scheme. Details of the finite element discrete equations are given and adaptive mesh refinement strategies are presented. The refinement criterion is an "a posteriori" error estimator based on stratification, shear and distance to surface. The model performances are assessed by studying the stress driven penetration of a turbulent layer into a stratified fluid. This example illustrates the ability of the presented model to follow some internal structures of the flow and paves the way for truly generalized vertical coordinates. (c) 2005 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Adjoint goal-based error norms for adaptive mesh ocean modelling

Flow in the world's oceans occurs at a wide range of spatial scales, from a fraction of a metre up to many thousands of kilometers. In particular, regions of intense flow are often highly localised, for example, western boundary currents, equatorial jets, overflows and convective plumes. Conventional numerical ocean models generally use static meshes. The use of dynamically-adaptive meshes has many potential advantages but needs to be guided by an error measure reflecting the underlying physics. A method of defining an error measure to guide an adaptive meshing algorithm for unstructured tetrahedral finite elements, utilizing an adjoint or goal-based method, is described here. This method is based upon a functional, encompassing important features of the flow structure. The sensitivity of this functional, with respect to the solution variables, is used as the basis from which an error measure is derived. This error measure acts to predict those areas of the domain where resolution should be changed. A barotropic wind driven gyre problem is used to demonstrate the capabilities of the method. The overall objective of this work is to develop robust error measures for use in an oceanographic context which will ensure areas of fine mesh resolution are used only where and when they are required. (c) 2006 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Optimal inverter design for an induction machine using resonant frequency matching

The frequency responses of two 50 Hz and one 400 Hz induction machines have been measured experimentally over a frequency range of 1 kHz to 400 kHz. This study has shown that the stator impedances of the machines behave in a similar manner to a parallel resonant circuit, and hence have a resonant point at which the Input impedance of the machine is at a maximum. This maximum impedance point was found experimentally to be as low as 33 kHz, which is well within the switching frequency ranges of modern inverter drives. This paper investigates the possibility of exploiting the maximum impedance point of the machine, by taking it into consideration when designing an inverter, in order to minimize ripple currents due to the switching frequency. Minimization of the ripple currents would reduce torque pulsation and losses, increasing overall performance. A modified machine model was developed to take into account the resonant point, and this model was then simulated with an inverter to demonstrate the possible advantages of matching the inverter switching frequency to the resonant point. Finally, in order to experimentally verify the simulated results, a real inverter with a variable switching frequency was used to drive an induction machine. Experimental results are presented.

Study of the variation of the input impedance of induction machines with frequency

The results of a study of the variation of three-phase induction machines' input impedance with frequency are proposed. A range of motors were analysed, both two-pole and four-pole, and the magnitude and phase of the input impedance were obtained over a wide frequency range of 20 Hz-1 MHz. For test results that would be useful in the prediction of the performance of induction machines during typical use, a test procedure was developed to represent closely typical three-phase stator coil connections when the induction machine is driven by a three-phase inverter. In addition, tests were performed with the motor's cases both grounded and not grounded. The results of the study show that all induction machines of the type considered exhibit a multiresonant impedance profile, where the input impedance reaches at least one maximum as the input frequency is increased. Furthermore, the test results show that the grounding of the motor's case has a significant effect on the impedance profile. Methods to exploit the input impedance profile of an induction machine to optimise machine and inverter systems are also discussed.