Detecting Earnings Management Using Neural Networks

Detecting Earnings Management Using Neural Networks. Trying to balance between relevant and reliable accounting data, generally accepted accounting principles (GAAP) allow, to some extent, the company management to use their judgment and to make subjective assessments when preparing financial statements. The opportunistic use of the discretion in financial reporting is called earnings management. There have been a considerable number of suggestions of methods for detecting accrual based earnings management. A majority of these methods are based on linear regression. The problem with using linear regression is that a linear relationship between the dependent variable and the independent variables must be assumed. However, previous research has shown that the relationship between accruals and some of the explanatory variables, such as company performance, is non-linear. An alternative to linear regression, which can handle non-linear relationships, is neural networks. The type of neural network used in this study is the feed-forward back-propagation neural network. Three neural network-based models are compared with four commonly used linear regression-based earnings management detection models. All seven models are based on the earnings management detection model presented by Jones (1991). The performance of the models is assessed in three steps. First, a random data set of companies is used. Second, the discretionary accruals from the random data set are ranked according to six different variables. The discretionary accruals in the highest and lowest quartiles for these six variables are then compared. Third, a data set containing simulated earnings management is used. Both expense and revenue manipulation ranging between -5% and 5% of lagged total assets is simulated. Furthermore, two neural network-based models and two linear regression-based models are used with a data set containing financial statement data from 110 failed companies. Overall, the results show that the linear regression-based models, except for the model using a piecewise linear approach, produce biased estimates of discretionary accruals. The neural network-based model with the original Jones model variables and the neural network-based model augmented with ROA as an independent variable, however, perform well in all three steps. Especially in the second step, where the highest and lowest quartiles of ranked discretionary accruals are examined, the neural network-based model augmented with ROA as an independent variable outperforms the other models.

Topics in Spatial Econometrics - With Applications to House Prices

Topics in Spatial Econometrics — With Applications to House Prices Spatial effects in data occur when geographical closeness of observations influences the relation between the observations. When two points on a map are close to each other, the observed values on a variable at those points tend to be similar. The further away the two points are from each other, the less similar the observed values tend to be. Recent technical developments, geographical information systems (GIS) and global positioning systems (GPS) have brought about a renewed interest in spatial matters. For instance, it is possible to observe the exact location of an observation and combine it with other characteristics. Spatial econometrics integrates spatial aspects into econometric models and analysis. The thesis concentrates mainly on methodological issues, but the findings are illustrated by empirical studies on house price data. The thesis consists of an introductory chapter and four essays. The introductory chapter presents an overview of topics and problems in spatial econometrics. It discusses spatial effects, spatial weights matrices, especially k-nearest neighbours weights matrices, and various spatial econometric models, as well as estimation methods and inference. Further, the problem of omitted variables, a few computational and empirical aspects, the bootstrap procedure and the spatial J-test are presented. In addition, a discussion on hedonic house price models is included. In the first essay a comparison is made between spatial econometrics and time series analysis. By restricting the attention to unilateral spatial autoregressive processes, it is shown that a unilateral spatial autoregression, which enjoys similar properties as an autoregression with time series, can be defined. By an empirical study on house price data the second essay shows that it is possible to form coordinate-based, spatially autoregressive variables, which are at least to some extent able to replace the spatial structure in a spatial econometric model. In the third essay a strategy for specifying a k-nearest neighbours weights matrix by applying the spatial J-test is suggested, studied and demonstrated. In the final fourth essay the properties of the asymptotic spatial J-test are further examined. A simulation study shows that the spatial J-test can be used for distinguishing between general spatial models with different k-nearest neighbours weights matrices. A bootstrap spatial J-test is suggested to correct the size of the asymptotic test in small samples.

The Impact of Readily Detected- and Underlying Attributes on Social Integration in Cross-Cultural Settings

The benefits and drawbacks of homogeneity and heterogeneity have been debated at length. Whereas some researchers assert that heterogeneity is beneficial for groups that are engaged in complex problem solving, the other researchers emphasize the potential costs associated with diversity. The inconsistency is a result of the incomplete measurement of diversity and focus one or two types of diversity. Most research concentrates on the readily detected/visible characteristics, making the assumption that such characteristics are related to underlying attributes (e.g., attitudes and values). In many cases, the demographic characteristics do not covary perfectly with the psychological attributes. Thus both types of attributes need to be utilized to fully understand the impact of diversity. The present research with four essays takes into account both types of attributes and tests their impact on social integration in cross-cultural settings. The results indicate that: (1) readily detectable- and underlying attributes are not related; (2) diversity has overall a negative impact on social integration; (3) socio-cultural context potentially influences the salience of diversity; and (4) diversity and social integration influences the formation of social cognition in form of transactive memory directories. The limits of research and managerial implications are discussed.

Four-dimensional current algebra from Chern-Simons theory

We study an abelian Chern-Simons theory on a five-dimensional manifold with boundary. We find it to be equivalent to a higher-derivative generalization of the abelian Wess-Zumino-Witten model on the boundary. It contains a U(1) current algebra with an operational extension.

An approximate algorithm for the minimal vertex nested polygon problem

Given two simple polygons, the Minimal Vertex Nested Polygon Problem is one of finding a polygon nested between the given polygons having the minimum number of vertices. In this paper, we suggest efficient approximate algorithms for interesting special cases of the above using the shortest-path finding graph algorithms.

Hardness of approximation results for the problem of finding the stopping distance in Tanner graphs

Tanner Graph representation of linear block codes is widely used by iterative decoding algorithms for recovering data transmitted across a noisy communication channel from errors and erasures introduced by the channel. The stopping distance of a Tanner graph T for a binary linear block code C determines the number of erasures correctable using iterative decoding on the Tanner graph T when data is transmitted across a binary erasure channel using the code C. We show that the problem of finding the stopping distance of a Tanner graph is hard to approximate within any positive constant approximation ratio in polynomial time unless P = NP. It is also shown as a consequence that there can be no approximation algorithm for the problem achieving an approximation ratio of 2(log n)(1-epsilon) for any epsilon > 0 unless NP subset of DTIME(n(poly(log n))).

SPSA algorithms with measurement reuse

Four algorithms, all variants of Simultaneous Perturbation Stochastic Approximation (SPSA), are proposed. The original one-measurement SPSA uses an estimate of the gradient of objective function L containing an additional bias term not seen in two-measurement SPSA. As a result, the asymptotic covariance matrix of the iterate convergence process has a bias term. We propose a one-measurement algorithm that eliminates this bias, and has asymptotic convergence properties making for easier comparison with the two-measurement SPSA. The algorithm, under certain conditions, outperforms both forms of SPSA with the only overhead being the storage of a single measurement. We also propose a similar algorithm that uses perturbations obtained from normalized Hadamard matrices. The convergence w.p. 1 of both algorithms is established. We extend measurement reuse to design two second-order SPSA algorithms and sketch the convergence analysis. Finally, we present simulation results on an illustrative minimization problem.

Glowworm-inspired robot swarm for simultaneous taxis towards multiple radiation sources

This paper presents a glowworm metaphor based distributed algorithm that enables a collection of minimalist mobile robots to split into subgroups, exhibit simultaneous taxis-behavior towards, and rendezvous at multiple radiation sources such as nuclear/hazardous chemical spills and fire-origins in a fire calamity. The algorithm is based on a glowworm swarm optimization (GSO) technique that finds multiple optima of multimodal functions. The algorithm is in the same spirit as the ant-colony optimization (ACO) algorithms, but with several significant differences. The agents in the glowworm algorithm carry a luminescence quantity called luciferin along with them. Agents are thought of as glowworms that emit a light whose intensity is proportional to the associated luciferin. The key feature that is responsible for the working of the algorithm is the use of an adaptive local-decision domain, which we use effectively to detect the multiple source locations of interest. The glowworms have a finite sensor range which defines a hard limit on the local-decision domain used to compute their movements. Extensive simulations validate the feasibility of applying the glowworm algorithm to the problem of multiple source localization. We build four wheeled robots called glowworms to conduct our experiments. We use a preliminary experiment to demonstrate the basic behavioral primitives that enable each glowworm to exhibit taxis behavior towards source locations and later demonstrate a sound localization task using a set of four glowworms.

Component Inventory Costs in an Assembly Problem with Uncertain Supplier Lead-Times

We present a generic study of inventory costs in a factory stockroom that supplies component parts to an assembly line. Specifically, we are concerned with the increase in component inventories due to uncertainty in supplier lead-times, and the fact that several different components must be present before assembly can begin. It is assumed that the suppliers of the various components are independent, that the suppliers' operations are in statistical equilibrium, and that the same amount of each type of component is demanded by the assembly line each time a new assembly cycle is scheduled to begin. We use, as a measure of inventory cost, the expected time for which an order of components must be held in the stockroom from the time it is delivered until the time it is consumed by the assembly line. Our work reveals the effects of supplier lead-time variability, the number of different types of components, and their desired service levels, on the inventory cost. In addition, under the assumptions that inventory holding costs and the cost of delaying assembly are linear in time, we study optimal ordering policies and present an interesting characterization that is independent of the supplier lead-time distributions.

Max-Coloring Paths: Tight Bounds and Extensions

The max-coloring problem is to compute a legal coloring of the vertices of a graph G = (V, E) with a non-negative weight function w on V such that Sigma(k)(i=1) max(v epsilon Ci) w(v(i)) is minimized, where C-1, ... , C-k are the various color classes. Max-coloring general graphs is as hard as the classical vertex coloring problem, a special case where vertices have unit weight. In fact, in some cases it can even be harder: for example, no polynomial time algorithm is known for max-coloring trees. In this paper we consider the problem of max-coloring paths and its generalization, max-coloring abroad class of trees and show it can be solved in time O(vertical bar V vertical bar+time for sorting the vertex weights). When vertex weights belong to R, we show a matching lower bound of Omega(vertical bar V vertical bar log vertical bar V vertical bar) in the algebraic computation tree model.

A note on the porous-wavemaker problem

A complete analytical solution is obtained, by using an integral transform method, for the porous-wavemaker problem, when the effect of surface tension is taken into account on the free surface of water of finite-depth in which surface waves are produced by small horizontal oscillations of a porous vertical plate. The final results are expressed in the form of convergent integrals as well as series and known results are reproduced when surface tension is neglected.