Electricity market price spike forecast with data mining techniques

Electricity market price forecast is a changeling yet very important task for electricity market managers and participants. Due to the complexity and uncertainties in the power grid, electricity prices are highly volatile and normally carry with spikes. which may be (ens or even hundreds of times higher than the normal price. Such electricity spikes are very difficult to be predicted. So far. most of the research on electricity price forecast is based on the normal range electricity prices. This paper proposes a data mining based electricity price forecast framework, which can predict the normal price as well as the price spikes. The normal price can be, predicted by a previously proposed wavelet and neural network based forecast model, while the spikes are forecasted based on a data mining approach. This paper focuses on the spike prediction and explores the reasons for price spikes based on the measurement of a proposed composite supply-demand balance index (SDI) and relative demand index (RDI). These indices are able to reflect the relationship among electricity demand, electricity supply and electricity reserve capacity. The proposed model is based on a mining database including market clearing price, trading hour. electricity), demand, electricity supply and reserve. Bayesian classification and similarity searching techniques are used to mine the database to find out the internal relationships between electricity price spikes and these proposed. The mining results are used to form the price spike forecast model. This proposed model is able to generate forecasted price spike, level of spike and associated forecast confidence level. The model is tested with the Queensland electricity market data with promising results. Crown Copyright (C) 2004 Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Anesthesia of captive African wild dogs (Lycaon pictus) using a medetomidine-ketamine-atropine combination

Seven captive male African wild dogs (Lycaon pictus) weighing 25-32 kg each, were anesthetized by i.m. injection via hand syringe with a combination of 1.5 mg/kg ketamine, 40 mu g/kg medetomidine, and 0.05 mg/kg atropine. Following endotracheal intubation, each animal was connected to a bain closed-circuit system that delivered 1.5% isoflurane and 2 L/min oxygen. Atipamezole (0.1 mg/kg i.v.; 0.1 mg/kg i.m.) was given at the end of each procedure (60 min following injection of medetomidine/ketamine/atropine). Time to sternal recumbency was 5-8 min. Times to standing after atipamezole administration were 8-20 min. This anesthetic regimen was repeated on three separate occasions (September 2000, February 2002, and October 2002) on all males to perform electroejaculation procedures. Each procedure was < 80 min from injection to standing. Dogs showed excellent muscle relaxation during the procedures. Arterial blood samples were collected at 10-min intervals for blood gases in one procedure (September 2000). Separate venous samples were taken from each dog during each procedure for hematology and biochemistry. These values were within the normal range for this species. Arterial hemoglobin oxygen saturation (SpO2) and heart rate (HR) were monitored continuously in addition to other anesthesia monitoring procedures (body temperature, respiratory rate [RR], capillary refill time, blink response, pupil position, deep pain perception reflex). All dogs maintained relatively stable SpO2 profiles during monitoring, with a mean (+/- SD) SpO2 of 92% +/- 5.4%. All other physiological variables (HR, RR, body temperature, blood pressure) were within normal limits. Following each procedure, normal behavior was noted in all dogs. All the dogs were reunited into the pack at completion of their anesthetic procedures. An injectable medetomidine-ketamine-atropine combination with maintenance by gaseous isoflurane and oxygen provides an inexpensive, reliable anesthetic for captive African wild dogs.

Early combination disease modifying antirheumatic drug treatment for rheumatoid arthritis

Most people presenting with rheumatoid arthritis today can expect to achieve disease suppression, can avoid or substantially delay joint damage and deformities, and can maintain a good quality of life. Optimal management requires early diagnosis and treatment, usually with combinations of conventional disease modifying antirheumatic drugs (DMARDs). If these do not effect remission, biological DMARDs may be beneficial. Lack of recognition of the early signs of rheumatoid arthritis, ignorance of the benefits of early application of modern treatment regimens, and avoidable delays in securing specialist appointments may hinder achievement of best outcomes for many patients. Triage for recognising possible early rheumatoid arthritis must begin in primary care settings with the following pattern of presentation as a guide: involvement of three or more joints; early-morning joint stiffness of greater than 30 minutes; or bilateral squeeze tenderness at metacarpophalangeal or metatarsophalangeal joints.

Paracetamol [acetaminophen]-induced gastrotoxicity: Revealed by induced hyperacidity in combination with acute or chronic inflammation

Paracetamol is regarded as a relatively safe drug in the gastro-duodenal region of humans but recent epidemiological investigations have suggested that at high doses there may be an increased risk of ulcers and bleeding. To investigate the possibility that inflammatory conditions and gastric acidity may play a role in potentiating development of gastric mucosal injury from paracetamol in rats (as noted previously with various non-steroidal anti-inflammatory drugs) we studied the gastric irritant effects of paracetamol and some phenolic and non-phenolic analgesics and antipyretics in rats with adjuvant or collagen II induced arthritis or zymosan-induced paw inflammation and given 1.0 ml hydrochloric acid (HCl) 0.1 M and/or an i. p. injection of the cholinomimetic, acetyl-β-methyl choline chloride 5.0 mg/kg. Gastric lesions were determined 2 h after oral administration of 100 or 250 mg/kg paracetamol or at therapeutically effective doses of the phenolic or non-phenolic analgesics/antipyretics. The results showed that gastric mucosal injury occurred with all these agents when given to animals that received all treatments so indicating there is an adverse synergy of these three factors, namely: (i) intrinsic disease; (ii) hyperacidity; and (iii) vagal stimulation for rapidly promoting gastric damage, both in the fundic as well as the antral mucosa, for producing gastric damage by paracetamol, as well as the other agents. Removing one of these three predisposing factors effectively blunts/abolishes expression of this paracetamol-induced gastrotoxity in rats. These three factors, without paracetamol, did not cause significant acute gastropathy.

Drug combination: pharmaceutical technologies applied to the manufacturing of combined dosage forms for oral administration

Lo scopo di questa ricerca di dottorato è stato lo studio di una forma di dosaggio flessibile e personalizzabile, indirizzata alle necessità individuali di ogni paziente, per il trattamento dell’iperplasia prostatica benigna. La terapia proposta prevede l’utilizzo di due farmaci, un alfa bloccante (farmaco A) e un inibitore delle 5- fosfodiesterasi (farmaco B) e, somministrati in una singola forma di dosaggio contenenti differenti dosi e combinazioni dei due farmaci. Lo sviluppo di un sistema di rilascio per la somministrazione orale di farmaco A e farmaco B è stato realizzato grazie alla tecnologia Dome Matrix. La tecnologia si basa sull’assemblaggio di moduli utilizzati come elementi di controllo del rilascio. L’assemblaggio dei moduli può essere ottenuto attraverso diverse configurazioni. Sono stati quindi realizzati sistemi assemblati in grado di galleggiare sul contenuto gastrico; la prolungata permanenza della forma farmaceutica nello stomaco favorisce la solubilizzazione dei due principi attivi che quindi potrebbero raggiungere il sito di assorbimento nel primo tratto intestinale già in dispersione molecolare, condizione ideale per essere assorbiti. La prima parte della ricerca è stata focalizzata sulla realizzazione di un sistema assemblato a rilascio modificato di farmaco A. Moduli contenenti diversi dosaggi di farmaco sono stati assemblati in varie configurazioni e dosi differenti per ottenere una forma di dosaggio flessibile, adattabile alle esigenze terapeutiche del paziente. La seconda parte del lavoro di tesi ha riguardato la realizzazione di un sistema assemblato, contenente entrambi i farmaci in associazione. L’ultima parte della ricerca è stata svolta presso la “University of Texas at Austin” sotto la supervisione del Professor Nicholas Peppas. Il lavoro svolto è stato focalizzato sullo studio delle caratteristiche di rigonfiamento dei singoli moduli di farmaco e dei loro sistemi assemblati; il comportamento di tali sistemi è stato investigato anche grazie all’utilizzo della tecnica di tomografia computerizzata a raggi X.