Computer modelling of human behaviour in aircraft fire accidents

The mathematical simulation of the evacuation process has a wide and largely untapped scope of application within the aircraft industry. The function of the mathematical model is to provide insight into complex behaviour by allowing designers, legislators, and investigators to ask ‘what if’ questions. Such a model, EXODUS, is currently under development, and this paper describes its evolution and potential applications. EXODUS is an egress model designed to simulate the evacuation of large numbers of individuals from an enclosure, such as an aircraft. The model tracks the trajectory of each individual as they make their way out of the enclosure or are overcome by fire hazards, such as heat and toxic gases. The software is expert system-based, the progressive motion and behaviour of each individual being determined by a set of heuristics or rules. EXODUS comprises five core interacting components: (i) the Movement Submodel — controls the physical movement of individual passengers from their current position to the most suitable neighbouring location; (ii) the Behaviour Submodel — determines an individual's response to the current prevailing situation; (iii) the Passenger Submodel — describes an individual as a collection of 22 defining attributes and variables; (iv) the Hazard Submodel — controls the atmospheric and physical environment; and (v) the Toxicity Submodel — determines the effects on an individual exposed to the fire products, heat, and narcotic gases through the Fractional Effective Dose calculations. These components are briefly described and their capabilities and limitations are demonstrated through comparison with experimental data and several hypothetical evacuation scenarios.

The airEXODUS evacuation model and its application to evacuation certification, crew training and accident investigation.

Computer based mathematical models describing the aircraft evacuation process have a vital role to play in the design and development of safer aircraft, in the implementation of safer and more rigorous certification criteria, cabin crew training and in post mortuum accident investigation. As the risk of personal injury and costs involved in performing large-scale evacuation experiments for the next generation 'Ultra High Capacity Aircraft' (UHCA) are expected to be high, the development and use of these evacuation modelling tools may become essential if these aircraft are to prove a viable reality. In this paper the capabilities and limitations of the airEXODUS evacuation model are described. Its successful application to the prediction of a recent certification trial, prior to the actual trial taking place, is described. Also described is a newly defined parameter known as OPS which can be used as a measure of evacuation trial optimality. In addition, sample evacuation simulations in the presence of fire atmospheres are described. Finally, the data requiremnets of the airEXODUS evacuation model is discussed along with several projects currently underway at the the Univesity of Greenwich designed to obtain this data. Included in this discussion is a description of the AASK - Aircraft Accident Statistics and Knowledge - data base which contains detailed information from aircraft accident survivors.

The numerical simulation of enclosure fires using a Cfd fire field model coupled with a pyrolysis based solid fuel combustion submodel—a first approximation

In this paper, we present some early work concerned with the development of a simple solid fuel combustion model incorporated within a Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD) framework. The model is intended for use in engineering applications of fire field modeling and represents an extension of this technique to situations involving the combustion of solid cellulosic fuels. A simple solid fuel combustion model consisting of a thermal pyrolysis model, a six flux radiation model and an eddy-dissipation model for gaseous combustion have been developed and implemented within the CFD code CFDS-FLOW3D. The model is briefly described and demonstrated through two applications involving fire spread in a compartment with a plywood lined ceiling. The two scenarios considered involve a fire in an open and closed compartment. The model is shown to be able to qualitatively predict behaviors similar to "flashover"—in the case of the open room—and "backdraft"— in the case of the initially closed room.

The numerical simulation of the noncharring pyrolysis process and fire development within a compartment

A pyrolysis model for noncharring solid fuels is presented in this paper. Model predictions are compared with experimental data for the mass loss rates of polymethylmethacrylate (PMMA) and very good agreement is achieved. Using a three-dimensional CFD environment, the pyrolysis model is then coupled with a gas-phase combustion model and a thermal radiation model to simulate fire development within a small compartment. The numerical predictions produced by this coupled model are found to be in very good agreement with experimental data. Furthermore, numerical predictions of the relationship between the air entrained into the fire compartment and the ventilation factor produce a characteristic post-flashover linear correlation with constant of proportionality 0.38 kg/sm5=2. The simulation results also suggest that the model is capable of predicting the onset of "flashover" and "post-flashover" type behaviour within the fire compartment.

Fire field modelling using the SMARTFIRE automated dynamic solution control environment

SMARTFIRE is a fire field model based on an open architecture integrated CFD code and knowledge-based system. It makes use of the expert system to assist the user in setting up the problem specification and new computational techniques such as Group Solvers to reduce the computational effort involved in solving the equations. This paper concentrates on recent research into the use of artificial intelligence techniques to assist in dynamic solution control of fire scenarios being simulated using fire field modelling techniques. This is designed to improve the convergence capabilities of the software while further decreasing the computational overheads. The technique automatically controls solver relaxations using an integrated production rule engine with a blackboard to monitor and implement the required control changes during solution processing. Initial results for a two-dimensional fire simulation are presented that demonstrate the potential for considerable savings in simulation run-times when compared with control sets from various sources. Furthermore, the results demonstrate enhanced solution reliability due to obtaining acceptable convergence within each time step unlike some of the comparison simulations.

The numerical simulation of fire spread within a compartment using an integrated gas and solid phase combustion model

An integrated fire spread model is presented in this study including several sub-models representing different phenomena of gaseous and solid combustion. The integrated model comprises of the following sub-models: a gaseous combustion model, a thermal radiation model that includes the effects of soot, and a pyrolysis model for charring combustible solids. The interaction of the gaseous and solid phases are linked together through the boundary conditions of the governing equations for the flow domain and the solid region respectively. The integrated model is used to simulate a fire spread experiment conducted in a half-scale test compartment. Good qualitative and reasonable quantitative agreement is achieved between the experiment and numerical predictions.

The development of a CFD based simulator for water mist suppression systems: the development of the fire submodel

The FIRE Detection and Suppression Simulation (FIREDASS) project was concerned with the development of water misting systems as a possible replacement for halon based fire suppression systems currently used in aircraft cargo holds and ship engine rooms. As part of this program of work, a computational model was developed to assist engineers optimize the design of water mist suppression systems. The model is based on Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD) and comprised of the following components: fire model; mist model; two-phase radiation model; suppression model; detector/activation model. In this paper the FIREDASS software package is described and the theory behind the fire and radiation sub-models is detailed. The fire model uses prescribed release rates for heat and gaseous combustion products to represent the fire load. Typical release rates have been determined through experimentation. The radiation model is a six-flux model coupled to the gas (and mist) phase. As part of the FIREDASS project, a detailed series of fire experiments were conducted in order to validate the fire model. Model predictions are compared with data from these experiments and good agreement is found.