Short-term Wind Speed Forecasting using Support Vector Machines

Wind speed forecasting has been becoming an important field of research to support the electricity industry mainly due to the increasing use of distributed energy sources, largely based on renewable sources. This type of electricity generation is highly dependent on the weather conditions variability, particularly the variability of the wind speed. Therefore, accurate wind power forecasting models are required to the operation and planning of wind plants and power systems. A Support Vector Machines (SVM) model for short-term wind speed is proposed and its performance is evaluated and compared with several artificial neural network (ANN) based approaches. A case study based on a real database regarding 3 years for predicting wind speed at 5 minutes intervals is presented.

Trypanosoma cruzi: chemotherapy with benznidazole in mice inoculated with strains from Paraná State and from different endemic areas of Brazil

Strains of Trypanosoma cruzi from different geographical areas have shown different levels of susceptibility to trypanocidal drugs. The susceptibility in vivo to benznidazole was investigated in eighteen strains of T. cruzi. Twelve were isolated from chronic chagasic patients from different Chagas’ disease endemic areas. The other six strains were isolated from the northwestern region of Paraná state; two of them from patients three from triatomines (Triatoma sordida) and one from wild reservoir (Didelphis sp.). To test drug the infected mice were divided into two groups of twenty. One group was treated with benznidazole for twenty consecutive days and the other group was used as untreated control. The treatment began after detection of the infection by direct blood examination or haemoculture. The control of cure was done through haemoculture and indirect immunofluorescence test. The drug eliminated the inflammatory lesions of the skeletal muscle of mice considered cured and from the heart of most of them. Moreover, the inflammatory lesions were reduced in treated but not cured animals. The T. cruzi strains studied showed a gradient of drug susceptibility that varied from 0% to 100%. Ten strains were considered sensitive to the treatment (61 to 100% of cure), one strain was partially sensitive (50% of cure) and seven strains were considered resistant to the treatment (0 to 40% of cure). This variation was observed both in strains of T. cruzi isolated from domestic and sylvatic cycles

Paracoccidioidomycosis in children in the state of Rio de Janeiro (Brazil): Geographic distribution and the study of a "reservarea"

Thirty six cases of acute disseminated paracoccidioidomycosis in 3 to 12 year-old children, natives of the state of Rio de Janeiro, were seen in the period 1981-1996. All patients were residents in the rural region of 15 counties, scattered on the Southwestern part of this state. The rural region of two neighboring counties, where 16 cases (44.4%) occurred, was visited. It exhibited the environmental conditions that are considered favorable to the survival of P. brasiliensis. The most important of these conditions, abundant watercourses and autochthonous forest, are distributed on well defined and limited areas, in which the dwellings are also localized. Probably, a careful epidemiological study of forthcoming cases of the disease in children may facilitate the search for the micro-niche of the fungus.

EPIDEMIOLOGICAL SURVEY ON CANINE POPULATION WITH THE USE OF IMMUNOLEISH SKIN TEST IN ENDEMIC AREAS OF HUMAN AMERICAN CUTANEOUS LEISHMANIASIS IN THE STATE OF RIO DE JANEIRO, BRAZIL

A survey for canine tegumentary leishmaniasis (CTL) has been carried out between 1986 and 1993 in seven endemic localities for American cutaneous leishmaniasis in the State of Rio de Janeiro. 270 dogs have been examined for their clinical aspects, the development of delayed hypersensitivity (DHS) with Immunoleish antigen and with immunofluorescent antibody research of IgG (IF). 28.2% of them had ulcer lesions and 3.3% had scars. The lesions consisted of single (39.5%) and mucocutaneous lesions (31.6%), multiple cutaneous (25.0%) and mucocutaneous lesions associated with cutaneous ulcers (4.0%). Twelve (15.8%) isolates from biopsies were analyzed by zimodeme and schizodeme and identified as L. (V.) braziliensis. The overall prevalence of canine infection that was evaluated with the skin test was of 40.5% and with IF it was of 25.5%. Both tests showed a high positive rate with relation to the animals with mucosal lesions, as in the case of human mucocutaneous leishmaniasis. The comparison of the two tests showed the skin test to have a better performance although there was no statistical difference (p>0.05) between them. The proportional sensitivity and specificity was of 84.0% and 74.0%, respectively. The Immunoleish skin test and IF are useful tools to be employed in CTL field epidemiological surveys.

Duality of patterns in hepatitis a epidemiology: A study involving two socioeconomically distinct populations in Campinas, São Paulo state, Brazil

To evaluate the prevalence of antibodies against hepatitis A in two socioeconomically distinct populations, 101 and 82 serum samples from high and low socioeconomic groups, respectively, were analysed for the presence of IgG anti-HAV using a commercial ELISA. The prevalence in low socioeconomic level subjects was 95.0%, whereas in high socioeconomic subjects was only 19.6% (p<0.001). These data show a duality in Brazil: anti-HAV prevalence in low socioeconomic subjects is similar to that of developing countries, while in high socioeconomic subjects, a pattern typical of developed countries is found. The control of this infection in our country is primarily related to the improvement of sanitation, but especially for high socioeconomic level populations, the use of vaccination against hepatitis A is strongly advisable to avoid the occasional appearance of this disease in adults.

SCHISTOSOMIASIS MANSONI IN THE "BAIXADA OCIDENTAL MARANHENSE", STATE OF MARANHÃO, BRAZIL: CROSS-SECTIONAL STUDIES PERFORMED IN 1987 AND 1993

A cross-sectional study on the prevalence of schistosomiasis mansoni in three sites of the "Baixada Ocidental Maranhense" was carried out in 1993 in: Alegre (in the municipality of São Bento), Aliança (in Cururupu) and Coroatá II (in the municipality of São João Batista). Results were compared to those of another study performed at the same sites and in similar conditions, in 1987. The entire population of the three sites, with few exceptions, was submitted to fecal tests using the Kato-Katz method and immediate intradermal tests for schistosomiasis in both studies. Subjects with positive results in one of these tests were clinically evaluated by a physical examination. In 1993, the total of 827 subjects were submitted to fecal examination and 826 to intradermal test. Schistosoma mansoni eggs were found in the feces of 154 (18.6%) subjects, while 478 (57.9%) subjects presented a positive intradermal test. Stool examination was carried out in 367 subjects in Alegre with a positivity rate of 14.9%; the intradermal test, performed in 366 subjects, was positive in 47.5% of the cases. In Aliança, 277 subjects had their feces examined and were submitted to an intradermal test, with a positivity rate of 34.4% and 70.7%, respectively. Finally in Coroatá II, 183 inhabitants submitted to fecal and intradermal tests had positivity rates of 2.2% and 59.0%, respectively. When the present data were compared to those obtained in the survey performed in 1987, a significant decrease in the prevalence of infection by S. mansoni was observed in Alegre and Coroatá II, and a prevalence increase in Aliança.

Influence of Immunopreventable Diseases and AIDS on the Demand of an Infectious Diseases Department in Rio de Janeiro State, Brazil, in the Course of Thirty Years (1965-1994)

Brazil's nosologic profile has been sustaining profound modifications. Some occurred because of massive immunization campaigns and socioeconomic and demographic trends. Some yet were pure nosologic transitions, such as the emergence of AIDS. In this demand study it is described how these changes reflected on the 8,630 admissions of an Infectious Diseases Department in Niterói, along a thirty year period. Brazilian rural endemic diseases were infrequent (3.45%). Men predominated (62%) all the time, in all age strata and in nearly all diseases. Children under fifteen predominated until 1983. There was, in the case of tetanus, a striking rise in age strata. Institutional mortality dropped from 31% in 1965 to 10% in 1984, but rose since then to 15% in 1994. However, if AIDS patients had not been computed, mortality would have kept descending till 8% at the end of the study period. The crescent unimportance of immunopreventable diseases paralleled with the growing prominence of AIDS. In less than a decade, AIDS ranked fifth among the most frequent diseases in the whole period of thirty years. As opposed to the immunopreventable diseases, neither meningitides nor pneumonia appear to be in decline. AIDS, by its exponential incidence, by its chronic character, and by the uncountable opportunistic infections it determines, imposes itself as a challenge for the coming years.

Parasitological and immunological diagnoses of strongyloidiasis in immunocompromised and non-immunocompromised children at Uberlândia, state of Minas Gerais, Brazil

Parasitological and immunological diagnoses were part of a study conducted among 151 children, 83 immunocompromised (IC) and 68 non-immunocompromised (non-IC) aged from zero to 12, seen at the University Hospital, Universidade Federal de Uberlândia, State of Minas Gerais, Brazil, from February, 1996, to June, 1998. Three fecal samples from each child were analyzed for the parasitological diagnosis by Baermann-Moraes and Lutz methods. The immunological diagnosis to detect IgG and IgM antibodies was carried out by the indirect immunofluorescence antibody test (IFAT) with cryo-microtome sections of Strongyloides stercoralis and Strongyloides ratti larvae as antigens and by the ELISA test with an alkaline extract of S. ratti as the antigens. Of the 151 children 5 (3.31%) were infected with larvae of S. stercoralis (2 cases IC, 2.41%, and 3 cases non-IC, 4.41%). The IFAT-IgG detected 7 (8.43%) serum samples positive among IC, and 2 (2.94%) cases among non-IC. The ELISA-IgG test detected 10 (12.05%) serum samples positive among IC, and 1 (1.47%) case among non-IC. The IFAT-IgM detected 6 (7.22%) positive cases among IC, and 3 (4.41%) cases among non-IC. ELISA-IgM test detected 10 (12.05%) positive cases among IC, and 3 (4.41%) cases among non-IC. It was concluded that the immunological tests can help in the diagnosis of strongyloidiasis in immunocompromised children.

An initial examination of the epidemiology of malaria in the State of Roraima, in the Brazilian Amazon Basin

This study firstly describes the epidemiology of malaria in Roraima, Amazon Basin in Brazil, in the years from 1991 to 1993: the predominance of plasmodium species, distribution of the blood slides examined, the malaria risk and seasonality; and secondly investigates whether population growth from 1962 to 1993 was associated with increasing risk of malaria. Frequency of malaria varied significantly by municipality. Marginally more malaria cases were reported during the dry season (from October to April), even after controlling for by year and municipality. Vivax was the predominant type in all municipalities but the ratio of plasmodium types varied between municipalities. No direct association between population growth and increasing risk of malaria from 1962 to 1993 was detected. Malaria in Roraima is of the "frontier" epidemiological type with high epidemic potential.

Previsão de avarias em transformadores de potência através da análise de ensaios físico-químicos

Os Transformadores de potência são máquinas de elevada importância ao nível dos Sistemas Elétricos de Energia (SEE) uma vez que são estas máquinas que possibilitam a interligação dos diferentes níveis de tensão da rede e a transmissão de energia elétrica em Corrente Alternada (CA). Geralmente, estas máquinas são de grandes dimensões e de elevado nível de complexidade construtiva. Caracterizam-se por possuírem períodos de vida útil bastante elevados (vinte a trinta anos) e preços elevados, o que conduz a um nível de exigência de fiabilidade muito elevada, uma vez que não e viável a existência de muitos equipamentos de reserva nos SEE. Com o objetivo de tentar maximizar o período de vida útil dos transformadores de potência e a sua fiabilidade, tenta-se, cada vez mais, implementar conceitos de manutenção preventiva a este tipo de máquinas. No entanto, a gestão da sua vida útil e extremamente complexa na medida em que, estas máquinas têm vários componentes cruciais e suscetiveis de originar falhas e, quase todos eles, encontram-se no interior de uma cuba. Desta forma, não e possível obter uma imagem do seu estado, em tempo real, sem colocar o transformador fora de serviço, algo que acarreta custos elevados. Por este motivo, desenvolveu-se uma técnica que permite obter uma indicação do estado do transformador, em tempo real, sem o retirar de serviço, colhendo amostras do óleo isolante e procedendo a sua análise físico-química e Analise Gases Dissolvidos (DGA). As análises aos óleos isolantes tem vindo a adquirir uma preponderância muito elevada no diagnóstico de falhas e na analise do estado de conservação destes equipamentos tendo-se desenvolvido regras para interpretação dos parâmetros dos óleos com carácter normativo. Considerando o conhecimento relativo a interpretação dos ensaios físico-químicos e DGA ao oleol, e possível desenvolver ferramentas capazes de otimizar essas mesmas interpretações e aplicar esse conhecimento no sentido de prever a sua evolução, assim como o surgimento de possíveis falhas em transformadores, para assim otimizar os processos de manutenção. Neste campo as Redes Neuronais Artificiais (RNAs) têm um papel fundamental