985 resultados para FORECAST COMBINATION


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Five structurally related thiophene and furane analogues of the oxathiin carboxanilide derivative NSC 615985 (UC84) (designated UC10, UC68, UC81, UC42, and UC16) were identified as potent inhibitors of HIV-1 replication in cell culture and HIV-1 reverse transcriptase activity. These compounds were markedly active against a series of mutant HIV-1 strains, containing the Leu-100-->Ile, Val-106-->Ala, Glu-138-->Lys, or Tyr-181-->Cys mutations in their reverse transcriptase. However, the thiocarboxanilide derivatives selected for mutations at amino acid positions 100 (Leu-->Ile), 101 (Lys-->Ile/Glu), 103 (Lys-->Thr/Asp) and 141 (Gly-->Glu) in the HIV-1 reverse transcriptase. The compounds completely suppressed HIV-1 replication and prevented the emergence of resistant virus strains when used at 1.3-6.6 microM--that is, 10- to 25-fold lower than the concentration required for nevirapine and bis(heteroaryl)piperazine (BHAP) U90152 to do so. If UC42 was combined with the [2',5'-bis-O-(tert-butyldimethylsilyl)-3'-spiro-5"-(4"-amino-1",2"- oxathiole-2",2"-dioxide)]-beta-D-pentofuranosyl (TSAO) derivative of N3-methylthymine (TSAO-m3T), virus breakthrough could be prevented for a much longer time, and at much lower concentrations, than if the compounds were used individually. Virus breakthrough could be suppressed for even longer, and at lower drug concentrations, if BHAP was added to the combination of UC42 with TSAO-m3T, which points to the feasibility of two- or three-drug combinations in preventing virus breakthrough and resistance development.

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The induction of arthritis in DBA/1 mice usually requires immunization with the antigen type II collagen emulsified with Mycobacterium tuberculosis in oil. Here we describe that interleukin 12 (IL-12) can replace mycobacteria and cause severe arthritis of DBA/1 mice when administered in combination with type II collagen. Immunization of DBA/1 mice with type II collagen emulsified in oil alone resulted in a weak immune response, and only a few animals (10-30%) developed arthritis. Administration of IL-12 for 5 days simultaneously with each immunization strongly enhanced the anti-type II collagen immune response. Collagen-specific interferon gamma (IFN-gamma) synthesis by ex vivo activated spleen cells was enhanced 3- to 10-fold. IFN-gamma was almost completely produced by CD4+ T cells. Furthermore, the production of collagen-specific IgG2a and IgG2b antibodies was upregulated 10- to 100-fold. As a consequence, the incidence of arthritis in the group of mice immunized with collagen plus IL-12 was very high (80-100%). The developing arthritis was severe, involving approximately 50% of all limbs with strongly increased footpad thickness in most cases. Furthermore, histological examination revealed massive, mainly polymorphonuclear cell infiltration, synovial hyperplasia, cartilage and bone destruction, as well as new bone formation. In many cases, this resulted in the complete loss of joint structure. Neutralization of IFN-gamma in vivo prevented the development of arthritis in collagen-immunized and IL-12-treated mice. In conclusion, our data show that in vivo administered IL-12 can profoundly upregulate a T helper I-type autoimmune response, resulting in severe joint disease in DBA/1 mice.

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The efficacy of combination therapy with a "suicide gene" and a cytokine gene to treat metastatic colon carcinoma in the liver was investigated. Tumor in the liver was generated by intrahepatic injection of a colon carcinoma cell line (MCA-26) in syngeneic BALB/c mice. Recombinant adenoviral vectors containing various control and therapeutic genes were injected directly into the solid tumors, followed by treatment with ganciclovir. While the tumors continued to grow in all animals treated with a control vector or a mouse interleukin 2 vector, those treated with a herpes simplex virus thymidine kinase vector, with or without the coadministration of the mouse interleukin 2 vector, exhibited dramatic necrosis and regression. However, only animals treated with both vectors developed an effective systemic antitumoral immunity against challenges of tumorigenic doses of parental tumor cells inoculated at distant sites. The antitumoral immunity was associated with the presence of MCA-26 tumor-specific cytolytic CD8+ T lymphocytes. The results suggest that combination suicide and cytokine gene therapy in vivo can be a powerful approach for treatment of metastatic colon carcinoma in the liver.

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We examine the predictive ability and consistency properties of exchange rate expectations for the dollar/euro using a survey conducted in Spain by PwC among a panel of experts and entrepreneurs. Our results suggest that the PwC panel have some forecasting ability for time horizons from 3 to 9 months, although only for the 3-month ahead expectations we obtain marginal evidence of unbiasedness and efficiency in the forecasts. As for the consistency properties of the exchange rate expectations formation process, we find that survey participants form stabilising expectations in the short-run and destabilising expectations in the long- run and that the expectation formation process is closer to fundamentalists than chartists.

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Using an international, multi-model suite of historical forecasts from the World Climate Research Programme (WCRP) Climate-system Historical Forecast Project (CHFP), we compare the seasonal prediction skill in boreal wintertime between models that resolve the stratosphere and its dynamics (high-top') and models that do not (low-top'). We evaluate hindcasts that are initialized in November, and examine the model biases in the stratosphere and how they relate to boreal wintertime (December-March) seasonal forecast skill. We are unable to detect more skill in the high-top ensemble-mean than the low-top ensemble-mean in forecasting the wintertime North Atlantic Oscillation, but model performance varies widely. Increasing the ensemble size clearly increases the skill for a given model. We then examine two major processes involving stratosphere-troposphere interactions (the El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the Quasi-Biennial Oscillation (QBO)) and how they relate to predictive skill on intraseasonal to seasonal time-scales, particularly over the North Atlantic and Eurasia regions. High-top models tend to have a more realistic stratospheric response to El Niño and the QBO compared to low-top models. Enhanced conditional wintertime skill over high latitudes and the North Atlantic region during winters with El Niño conditions suggests a possible role for a stratospheric pathway.

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In this work, batch and dynamic adsorption tests are coupled for an accurate evaluation of CO2 adsorption performance for three different activated carbons obtained from olives stones by chemical activation followed by physical activation with CO2 at varying times, i.e. 20, 40 and 60 h. Kinetic and thermodynamic CO2 adsorption tests from simulated flue-gas at different temperature and CO2 pressure are carried out both in batch (a manometric equipment operating with pure CO2) and dynamic (a lab-scale fixed-bed column operating with CO2/N2 mixture) conditions. The textural characterization of the activated carbon samples shows a direct dependence of both micropore and ultramicropore volume on the activation time, hence AC60 has the higher contribution. The adsorption tests conducted at 273 and 293 K showed that, when CO2 pressure is lower than 0.3 bar, the lower the activation time the higher CO2 adsorption capacity and a ranking ωeq(AC20)>ωeq(AC40)>ωeq(AC60) can be exactly defined when T= 293 K. This result can be likely ascribed to a narrower pore size distribution of the AC20 sample, whose smaller pores are more effective for CO2 capture at higher temperature and lower CO2 pressure, the latter representing operating conditions of major interest for decarbonation of a flue-gas effluent. Moreover, the experimental results obtained from dynamic tests confirm the results derived from the batch tests in terms of CO2 adsorption capacity. It is important to highlight that the adsorption of N2 on the synthesized AC samples can be considered negligible. Finally, the importance of a proper analysis of characterization data and adsorption experimental results is highlighted for a correct assessment of CO2 removal performances of activated carbons at different CO2 pressure and operating temperature.

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Biopolymers do not have competitive prices, which has prevented their industrial exploitation on a global scale so far. In this context, Using nanoclays, improvements in certain biopolymer properties, mainly mechanical and thermal, have been achieved. However, research has been much less focused on changing optical properties through the incorporation of nanoclays. At the same time, current research has focused on obtaining nanopigments, by organic dyes adsoptions into different nanoclays in order to achieve sustainable colouring and high performance materials. By combining advances in these lines of research, biodegradable composites with optimal mechanical and optical properties can be obtained. The aim of this work is to find the optimal formulation of naturally sourced nanopigments, incorporate them into a biological origin epoxy resin, and obtain a significant improvement in their mechanical, and optical properties. We combine three structural modifiers in the nanopigment synthesis: surfactant, silane and mordant salt. The latter was selected in order to replicate the mordant textile dyeing with natural dyes. Using a Taguchi’s desing L8, we look for the effect of the presence of the modifiers, the pH acidification, and the interactions effect between the synthesis factors. Three natural dyes were selected: chlorophyll, beta-carotene, and beetroot extract. Furthermore we use two kinds of laminar nanoclays, differentiated by the ion exchange charge: montmorillonite, and hydrotalcite. Then the thermal, mechanical and colorimetric characterization of the bionanocomposite materials was carried out. The optimal conditions to obtain the best bionanocomposite materials are using acid pH, and modifying the nanoclays with mordant and surfactant.

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The macroeconomic results achieved by Belarus in 2012 laid bare the weakness and the inefficiency of its economy. Belarus’s GDP and positive trade balance were growing in the first half of last year. However, this trend was reversed when Russia blocked the scheme of extremely lucrative manipulations in the re-export of Russian petroleum products by Belarus and when the demand for potassium fertilisers fell on the global market. It became clear once again that the outdated Belarusian model of a centrally planned economy is unable to generate sustainable growth, and the Belarusian economy needs thorough structural reforms. Nevertheless, President Alyaksandr Lukashenka consistently continues to block any changes in the system and at the same time expects that the economic indicators this year will reach levels far beyond the possibilities of the Belarusian economy. Therefore, there is a risk that the Belarusian government may employ – as they used to do – instruments aimed at artificially stimulating domestic demand, including money creation. This may upset the relative stability of state finances, which the regime managed to achieve last year. The worst case scenario would see a repeat of what happened in 2011, when a serious financial crisis occurred, forcing Minsk to make concessions (including selling the national network of gas pipelines) to Moscow, its only real source of loans. It thus cannot be ruled out that also this time the only way to recover from the slump will be to receive additional loan support and energy subsidies from Russia at the expense of selling further strategic companies to Russian investors.

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Oil is a strategic raw material for Russia and one of fundamental significance for the functioning of the state and its future. Taxes on oil production and exports are the most important source of state budget revenues which guarantee Russia maintains its political and economic stability. Russia is building its international position on the basis of its vast raw material and energy potential. While a great number of various publications have been devoted to Russian gas and Gazprom, surprisingly little research has been done into the present condition and possible future developments of the Russian oil sector, despite the fact that oil has and will have a much greater impact than gas on the functioning and the future of Russia. The main objective of this text is to describe the present situation of the Russian oil sector, its problems and the challenges it is posing, as well as the government’s policy towards this key branch of the Russian economy. This will be an introduction to an attempt to answer to the questions about the possible future production and the export levels of Russian oil, also broken down into the European and Asian directions.