Russian nationalists on the Kremlin’s policy in Ukraine. OSW Commentary No. 156|24.12.2014

On the Day of National Unity, celebrated in Russia every 4 November, members of nationalist movements organise a so-called Russian March in Moscow. In 2014 the nationalists took part in three competing marches, which illustrated the divisions present in these circles. The reason for these divisions is a difference of opinions on the policy pursued by Russia towards Ukraine. The pro-Russian, Russia-inspired protests in south-eastern Ukraine organised under the slogan of ‘defending’ the Russians living there (the ‘Russian Spring’) and the annexation of Crimea were received enthusiastically by the nationalists and contributed to a consolidation of these circles around the Kremlin which lasted for several months. In spite of this, opinions on the Russian government’s current policy towards the so-called Donetsk and Lugansk People’s Republics have been varied. The most radical groups have demanded that military support be offered, and that the ‘confederation’ of these republics, the so-called ‘Novorossiya’, should be officially recognised. They consider the Kremlin’s policy to have been too soft, and see the signing of the peace agreements in Minsk as a betrayal of the interests of the Russians. For the remaining representatives of nationalist circles, who are not so numerous and are less visible in the public sphere, finding a solution for Russia’s domestic problems remains a priority. Some of them oppose the very notion of Russia’s involvement in the conflict. Since the beginning of the ‘Russian Spring’, the Kremlin has fostered active attitudes among the nationalists and solicited their support, hoping to win a valuable ally. This has boosted hopes in these circles that their political position may be strengthened. The involvement in the fighting in Ukraine has led to a radicalisation of attitudes among the nationalists, and demonstrated that this group is ideologically motivated and has considerable potential for mobilisation. Moreover, the ‘Great Russian’ and anti-Western slogans some of them have propagated are reflected in views displayed by average Russians, who have been influenced by the patriotic enthusiasm which followed the annexation of Crimea. Due to all this, from among all the actors active on the opposition side, it is the nationalists – and not the representatives of the liberal and pro-Western opposition – that have the best prospects for access to the political stage in Russia. It cannot be ruled out that a further strengthening of the radical groups might also be boosted by the possible growing social frustration caused by the economic crisis, which additionally increases the risk of political destabilisation.

The ICC and its Deteriorating Relationship with Africa in Light of the Kenya Cases: What Should the EU Position be? IES Policy Brief Issue 2013/09 • November 2013

Summary. The African Union (AU), a union consisting of 54 African States, held an Extraordinary Summit on 11-12 October 2013, to discuss its relationship with the International Criminal Court (ICC or the Court). The meeting took place just weeks before the trial of Kenya’s President Uhuru Kenyatta is scheduled to begin, and was clearly intended to voice discontent and put on hold the ongoing ICC proceedings against Kenyatta as well as his deputy, Vice-President William Ruto. Before the Summit, there were even widespread rumors that the Assembly of the AU would call for a mass withdrawal of African States Parties from the ICC Statute. Eventually, the Assembly did not go that far and took two important, but less controversial decisions. It called for the granting of immunities to Heads of States from prosecutions by international criminal tribunals and requested a deferral of the ICC cases against Kenyatta and Ruto through a resolution adopted by the UN Security Council (UNSC). After providing a background to the Kenya cases, this policy brief aims to evaluate what the position of the EU and its Member States as outspoken supporters of the ICC and the fight against impunity should be, especially given the fact that France and the UK, as permanent UNSC members, could block a UNSC deferral at any time.

Still together, but apart? Kyiv’s policy towards the Donbas. OSW Commentary No. 160, February 6 2015

From the Introduction. The peace deal agreed on 5 September 2014 concerning the ceasefire in the region covered by the conflict in the Donbas brought about a significant reduction in the scale of military clashes. However, in mid-January the separatist forces, supported by the Russian military, started an offensive along the entire front line. For example, they seized the airport in Donetsk and the village of Krasnyi Partyzan. About a third of the Donetsk and the Lugansk oblasts currently remain outside Kyiv’s control (see Map). Before the war, these areas were inhabited by 6.6 million residents, 15% of Ukraine’s total population. The process launched in September 2014 in Minsk, which was intended to regulate the conflict within the so-called trilateral contact group (Ukraine, Russia, the OSCE and representatives of the separatists), resulted in an exchange of some prisoners of war, although it failed to have any political effects. Attempts at regulating the political situation were additionally complicated by the illegal ‘elections’ of leaders of the two separatist regions, the so-called Donetsk and Lugansk People’s Republics (the DPR and LPR).

What priorities for the new European agenda on migration? CEPS Commentary, 22 April 2015

In the wake of the latest tragic drownings in the Mediterranean, in which some 900 immigrants lost their lives, and with a view to the extraordinary EU Summit on April 23rd, this Commentary argues that any short, medium and long-term EU migration policy priorities should start by unequivocally setting out their founding and operational principles. This step would be closely followed by implementation of effective action on the ground aimed at meeting the realities and alleviating the hardship.

Ramzanistan. Russia's Chechen Problem. OSW POINT OF VIEW Number 54, 2015-08-25

The political activity and growing independence of Chechnya’s leader Ramzan Kadyrov raises questions about his loyalty and the possibility of his openly renouncing his servitude to Moscow. Such a scenario seems unlikely because of the dependence of Kadyrov’s regime on Russia. He is burdened by his republic’s financial dependence, the stain of collaboration and the crimes committed on his own people, and so his regime cannot exist without Moscow’s support. However, Kadyrov’s dependence on Moscow and the apparent stability of the situation in Chechnya do not mean that a lasting peace has been established there. The current plan for governing the republic and the relationship between Moscow and Grozny is a temporary solution, based not on durable solutions, but on the situational convergence of the Kremlin and Kadyrov’s interests. A change of government in the Kremlin, or to an even greater degree a domestic crisis in Russia which weakens its position in the Caucasus, would mean the fall of Kadyrov’s regime, and the reactivation of pro-independence rhetoric in Chechnya.

e-Consultation as a tool for participation in teachers’ unions: the greater the focus, the greater the number of visits

In the 2000’s, the Internet became the preferred mean for the citizens to communicate. The YouTube, Twitter, Facebook, LinkedIn, i.e., the social networks in general appeared together with the Web 2.0, which allows an extraordinary interaction between citizens and the democratic institutions. The trade unions constantly fight governments’ decisions, especially in periods of crisis like the one that the world, Europe and, in particular, Portugal are facing. In this regard, the use of e-participation platforms is expected to strengthen the relationship between trade unions and the education community. This paper reports the research about the planning and driving of a series of experiments of online public consultation, launched by teachers’ trade unions. These experiments are compared with those of other countries, such as Australia, United Kingdom and United States of America. A quantitative analysis of the results regarding hits, subscriptions, and response rates is presented, and it is compared with the 90-9-1 rule, the ASCU model and data from government agencies. The experiments performed used the Liberopinion, an online platform that supports bidirectional asynchronous communication. A better understanding of the benefits of these collaborative environments is expected by promoting quality of interaction between actors.

Age determination of sediment cores C23-81 and EN32-PC6

It has long been recognized that the transition from the last glacial to the present interglacial was punctuated by a brief and intense return to cold conditions. This extraordinary event, referred to by European palynologists as the Younger Dryas, was centered in the northern Atlantic basin. Evidence is accumulating that it may have been initiated and terminated by changes in the mode of operation of the northern Atlantic Ocean. Further, it appears that these mode changes may have been triggered by diversions of glacial meltwater between the Mississippi River and the St. Lawrence River drainage systems. We report here Accelerator Mass Spectrometry (AMS) radiocarbon results on two strategically located deep-sea cores. One provides a chronology for surface water temperatures in the northern Atlantic and the other for the meltwater discharge from the Mississippi River. Our objective in obtaining these results was to strengthen our ability to correlate the air temperature history for the northern Atlantic basin with the meltwater history for the Laurentian ice sheet.

Chemical observations in the Red Sea and the inner Gulf of Aden during the International Indian Ocean Expedition 1964/65

The Red Sea has a special place among the adjacent seas of the world. High evaporation, exclusion of its deep water from contact with the Indian Ocean proper and complete absence of continental drainage may result special conditions of the chemistry of the Red Sea. This paper aims to describe and explain the peculiarity of the hydrochemical situation. The influence of the topography, of the inflow and outflow through the straights of Bab el Mandeb, of the evaporation, of the stability of the water layers, and of the circulation will be studied. An attempt is made to estimate the apparent oxygen ultilisation in order to obtain an indication of the biological activity. A further attempt is made toward the quantitative estimation of the circulation of the nutrients and also to obtain some information about transport, dissolution, and precipitation of calcium carbonate. The basis of these investigations are mainly observations of R. V. "Meteor" during the International Indian Ocean Expedition 1964/65. The determination of dissolved oxygen, dissolved inorganic phosphate, nitrate, nitrite, ammonia, pH, alkalinity, silicate as well as salinity and temperature forms the necessary basis for such an investigation of the chemical conditions. In the first chapter the methods and some modifications for the determination of the chemical properties as applied during the I.I.O.E. cruise of R. V. "Meteor" are described. The new methods, as worked out and tested under sea going conditions during several years by the author, are described in more detail. These are the methods for nitrate, silicate, the automatic determination of dissolved inorganic phosphate and silicate, the automated determination of total phosphorus, the in situ recording of the oxygen tension, and the modification for the determination of ammonia, calcium, and dissolved oxygen. With these revised methods more than 18,000 determinations have been carried out during the Indian Ocean cruise. The complete working up of the chemical data of the Indian Ocean Expedition of R. V. "Meteor" is devided into four sections: Contributions 1) to the Chemistry of the Red Sea and the Inner Gulf of Aden, 2) to the Gulf of Aden and the Somali Coast Region, 3) to the Western Indian Coast Region, and 4) to the Persian Gulf and the Straits of Oman. This paper presents the first contribution. The special hydrographical conditions are discussed. It can be shown, that the increase of salinity in the surface waters from the south to the north of the Red Sea is only to about 30 % due to evaporation. The remaining increase is presumed to be due to the admixture of deep water to the surface layers. A special rate for the consumption of oxygen (0.114 ml/ l/a) is derived for the deep water of the Red Sea at 1500 m. Based upon the distribution of the dissolved oxygen along the axii of the Red Sea, a chematic model for the longitudinal circulation of the Red Sea is constructed. This model should be considered as a first approximation and may explain the special distribution of phosphate, nitrate, and silicate. Based upon the evaluation of the residence time of the deep water a dissolution rate for silicate is estimated as 1 mygat/a. It seems possible to calculate residence times of water masses outside the Red Sea from the silicate content. The increase of silicate and the consumption of oxygen lead to residence times of the water below the thermocine of 30 to 48 years. The distribution of oxygen in the Straits of Bab el Mandeb is described and discussed. The rate of consumption of the oxygen in the outflowing Red Sea water is estimated to 8.5 ml/ l/a. This rather high rate is explained with reference to the special conditions in the outflowing water. The Red Sea water is characterized initially by a relative high content of oxygen and a low content of nutrients. The increase in nutrients and the decrease in the oxygen content is a secondary process of the Red Sea water on its way to the Arabian Sea. Based upon the vertical distribution of the dissolved inorganic phosphate vertical exchange coefficients of 1 - 4 g/cm/sec and vertical current speeds of 10**-5 to 10**-4 cm/sec are calculated for some stations in the Red Sea. The distribution of phosphate, silicate, nitrate, nitrite and ammonia for the Red Sea and the Straits of Bab el Mandeb are discussed. The special circulation is evaluated and the balance of the nutrients is estimated by means of the brutto transport. The nutrient deficit is assumed to be balanced by sporadic inflow of intermediate water from the Gulf of Aden. An example for such an inflow has been observed and is demonstrated. The silicate-salinity relationships are a suitable way for characterizing water masses in the Red Sea. Equations for the calculation of the different components from the carbonate system, the ion activities, and the calcium carbonate saturation are evaluated. The influence of temperature and pressure is taken into account. The carbonate saturation is calculated from the determined concentrations of calcium, alkalinity, and the hydrogen ion activity. Saturation values of 320 % are found for the surface layer and of 100% ± 1 for the deep water. The extraordinary equilibrium conditions may explain the constant Ca/Cl ratio and also the sedimentation of undissolved carbonate skelecons even in greater depths. A main sedimentation rate of 2 * 10**-3cm/year is evaluated from a total sedimentation of 10 * 106 to/a of calcium carbonate in the Red Sea. The appendix contains those data, which are not published in the data volume of the I.I.O.E. expedition of R. V. "Meteor".

Brazil, information for United States businessmen.

Mode of access: Internet.

Post-war problems of Guatemala /

"Prepared for Subcommittee V on Post-War Problems of the Inter-American Financial and Economic Advisory Committee."

Post-war problems of El Salvador /

"Confidential."

Mining and manufacturing industries in Bolivia ...

"One of a series of reports on mining and manufacturing industries in the American republics."

Investment in Peru; basic information for United States businessmen.

Mode of access: Internet.

Agricultural, pastoral, and forest industries in Brazil.

"One of a series of reports on agricultural, pastoral, and forest industries in the American Republics."