The ‘Unknown Knowns’ of the Global Gas Market. CEPS Essay No. 16, 16 October 2014

Energy markets evolve at least as quickly as the economies they fuel. But development unfolds at an irregular pace, with starts and stops often precipitated by seemingly unpredictable dynamics. Is it really impossible to forecast these ‘revolutions’, if the past can be seen as prologue? The answer might be in the way we look at future events; even if we accept that some events are unpredictable, we may be able to infer much more about the future trends through a broader reading of available data, thus revealing ‘unknown knowns’ that may be useful in understanding paradigm shifts ahead. This paper presents an analysis of the global gas market, offering views on what the most relevant ‘unknown knowns’ of today look like, and hypotheses about some of the possible game-changing events that the market is likely to face in the short to medium term.

The roots of economic challenges facing Egypt in the aftermath of the 25th January revolution. Jean Monnet Occasional Paper No. 9/2014

Introduction. Since the 25th of January 2011 revolution the Egyptian economy has been suffering on all fronts. Almost all the economic indicators have been pointing towards a deteriorating situation, and in many cases have reached the trough. Yet, the economy is still surviving. This is mainly due to the unprecedented support of some of Arab Gulf countries, whose unconditional aid has helped to mitigate the deteriorating economic conditions. The economic challenges facing Egypt have been exacerbated after the 20th of January revolution mainly because of the deteriorating political and security conditions which have interrupted the functioning of the economy. Yet, this is not to say that revolution has caused these challenges. In fact, the challenges that the Egyptian has been facing have deep roots in its socio-political-economic context, which this paper aims to explain. The revolution and its aftermath have brought to the forefront challenges which have always been mitigated by short-term solutions that never dealt seriously with their roots. Moreover, the revolution has brought additional problems associated with the macroeconomic imbalances. As a result, the challenges became more complex especially in light of the need to balance the social and economic aspects. The paper proceeds as follows; in section one we pinpoint the main challenges faced by Egypt where we identify the symptoms and causes of such challenges. In section two we discuss the roots of such challenges. Finally, we conclude and provide our understanding of how Egypt is expected to face its challenges in the near future.

Crimean Tatars after Russia's annexation of the Crimean Peninsula. OSW Commentary No. 141, 30.06.2014

After Russia’s annexation of Crimea, Crimean Tatars face the necessity of working out a modus vivendi to cope with the difficult situation which now confronts them. On the one hand, the desire to remain in their homeland, which they regained after exile in Soviet times, is an imperative encouraging them to accept the status quo, while on the other, the fear of Russia and the strong relations of Crimean Tatar elites with Kyiv would favour opposing the present state of affairs. Another fact pointing in favour of an agreement with Moscow is that Kyiv has not attempted to defend Crimea and has not been active in demanding its return to Ukraine, which has undermined Kyiv’s authority in the eyes of the Tatars. Therefore, the leaders of the Mejlis of Crimean Tatars (the national self-government) act carefully, trying to avoid actions which could be seen as provocative and thus liable to incite retribution. It could be expected that this course of action will continue, although it faces ever greater difficulties in the context of the Russian authorities’ adoption of a strongly anti-Tatar policy, which is likely to evoke more radical attitudes among the Crimean Tatars.

Eastern Policy of the EU: the Visegrad Countries' Perspective. OSW Point of View, February 2003

1. After its enlargement, scheduled for 2004, the European Union will face a completely new situation at its eastern borders. This new situation calls for a new concept of the EU eastern activities, i.e. for development of the new Eastern Policy of the EU. 2. Due to a number of specific features such as geographical location, closeness of ties, direct risk factors etc., the Visegrad countries will and should be particularly interested in the process of formulating the new EU Eastern Policy. Consequently, they should be the co-makers of this policy. 3. The new EU Eastern Policy should differ fundamentally from the Union's traditional eastern relations. Firstly, its scope should not cover the entire CIS area: instead, the policy should focus on some of the European successor states of the former Soviet Union, namely Belarus, Russia and Ukraine, as well as Moldova, following the accession of Romania. It does not seem advisable to exclude the Russian Federation from this policy and to develop and implement a separate policy towards it. The new Eastern Policy should be an autonomous component and one of the most important elements in the overall foreign policy of the EU. 4. Secondly, the new Eastern Policy should be founded on the following two pillars: a region-oriented strategy, which could be called the Eastern Dimension, and reshaped strategies for individual countries. The Eastern Dimension should set up a universal framework of co-operation, defining its basic mechanisms and objectives. These should include: the adaptation assistance programme, JHA, transborder co-operation, social dialogue and transport infrastructures. The approach, however, should be kept flexible, taking into account the specific situation of each country. This purpose should be served by keeping in place the existing bilateral institutional contacts between the EU and each of its eastern neighbours, and by developing a national strategy for each neighbour.

The future of the Franco-German tandem. OSW Commentary No. 83, 2012-07-11

Following the victories of François Hollande in the presidential election and the Socialist Party in the parliamentary election, the existing model of relations between Germany and France as symbolised by the Merkel-Sarkozy duo is undergoing a transformation. Along with the defeat for Sarkozy, who had fostered close cooperation with the German Chancellor, we are witnessing a change in the German-French modus operandi, which was based on making confidential agreements concerning the anti-crisis measures in the eurozone and then presenting ready-made solutions to other EU members (as in the case of the successive versions of the document currently known as the fiscal pact). However, a conflict in bilateral relations, which would mean a total breakdown of the Franco-German engine, is rather unlikely. In fact, François Hollande’s proposals have diminished the appearance of the two states’ exceptional compatibility, and have restored the specific relationship affected by the natural rivalry between two states, who because of their economies’ different orientation have divergent interests. Nevertheless, both sides are destined to reach a compromise, as neither can attain its goals in the face of the other’s opposition. In the long term, Hollande is likely to maintain a common front with Germany in fighting the crisis, while at the same time trying (with his allies from the south of the EU) to limit Berlin’s political and economic superiority.

A Strong Europe in a Globalized World: From the Hungarian to the Polish presidency of the Council of the European Union. ACES Working Papers, 2011

On June 17, 2011, the Center for Transatlantic Relations – together with the Center for European Policy Analysis, the Polish Institute of International Affairs in Warsaw, and the Embassies of Hungary and Poland – hosted authors writing on the theme “A Strong Europe in a Globalized World,” and who offered in-depth, substantive reflections about how the United States and Europe can work together more closely in meeting global challenges. Drawing on the agendas of the outgoing and incoming EU Presidencies of the Council of the European Union – Hungary and Poland respectively – authors focused on the importance of a strong US-EU partnership in the face of mounting global challenges, from the current financial and economic crisis through the insecurities of energy markets and the promise of the Arab Spring. Authors explored in depth four key areas of shared interests: A Global Perspective (Transatlantic Partnership in a Globalized World); Achievements and Deliverables of Eastern Partnership; Euro-Atlantic Perspectives for the Balkans; and Common Challenges of Energy Security. Senior Hungarian and Polish government officials, subject matter experts, private sector actors, and think tank scholars participated.

Strategic Insurance: The Future of the Belgian Armed Forces. IES Policy Brief Issue 2014/04/May 2014

Summary. Belgium is on the cusp of its next defence reform. While the security landscape throughout Europe’s neighbourhood and beyond deteriorates, the armed forces face numerous challenges. Most importantly, the next defence plan needs to recalibrate the force structure in function of political ambitions and budgetary realities. This Policy Brief argues that Belgium must embrace a nimble but broad-spectrum force. Any future structure must encompass agile land forces as well as a modern combat air force, without neglecting the need to safeguard a sizeable navy and invest in cyber capabilities. European cooperation should be pursued wherever possible while recognising that this necessitates budgetary convergence. For Belgium this means the investment budget needs to grow significantly in order to acquire interoperable but self-owned assets. Such a choice can be justified on the recognition that defence is not just about expeditionary operations, but also economic stimulus, intergenerational solidarity and strategic insurance: maintaining the ability to respond to whatever the future may bring.

The Court of Justice of the European Union. College of Europe Research Paper in Law 02/2014

The Court of Justice of the European Union is one of the institutions of the Union. Praised by some as the relentless and steady motor of European integration and attacked by others as an example of a clearly biased institution, more ink has perhaps been spilled over the years on discussing the (de)merits of the Court of Justice than any other Union institution. In face of such considerable literature coming from legal, political science, sociological, and more recently also historical quarters, this chapter cannot but scratch the surface of the vast topic by providing a concise introduction into selected institutional themes in a legal1 and, where possible, diachronic perspective: the structure of the Union courts located in Luxembourg; basic information about the type of judicial business the Court of Justice carries out; the composition of the Court of Justice, including the recent changes made to the way in which judges and advocates-general are selected; the often discussed style and structure of the judgments; and, finally, the even more frequently discussed and recurring question of the legitimacy of the Court of Justice.

Consensus, contradiction, and conciliation of interests: the geo-economics of the Energy Union. EPC Policy Brief, 8 July 2015

European Union energy policy calls for nothing less than a profound transformation of the EU's energy system: by 2050 decarbonised electricity generation with 80-95% fewer greenhouse gas emissions, increased use of renewables, more energy efficiency, a functioning energy market and increased security of supply are to be achieved. Different EU policies (e.g., EU climate and energy package for 2020) are intended to create the political and regulatory framework for this transformation. The sectorial dynamics resulting from these EU policies already affect the systems of electricity generation, transportation and storage in Europe, and the more effective the implementation of new measures the more the structure of Europe's power system will change in the years to come. Recent initiatives such as the 2030 climate/energy package and the Energy Union are supposed to keep this dynamic up. Setting new EU targets, however, is not necessarily the same as meeting them. The impact of EU energy policy is likely to have considerable geo-economic implications for individual member states: with increasing market integration come new competitors; coal and gas power plants face new renewable challengers domestically and abroad; and diversification towards new suppliers will result in new trade routes, entry points and infrastructure. Where these implications are at odds with powerful national interests, any member state may point to Article 194, 2 of the Lisbon Treaty and argue that the EU's energy policy agenda interferes with its given right to determine the conditions for exploiting its energy resources, the choice between different energy sources and the general structure of its energy supply. The implementation of new policy initiatives therefore involves intense negotiations to conciliate contradicting interests, something that traditionally has been far from easy to achieve. In areas where this process runs into difficulties, the transfer of sovereignty to the European level is usually to be found amongst the suggested solutions. Pooling sovereignty on a new level, however, does not automatically result in a consensus, i.e., conciliate contradicting interests. Rather than focussing on the right level of decision making, European policy makers need to face the (inconvenient truth of) geo-economical frictions within the Union that make it difficult to come to an arrangement. The reminder of this text explains these latter, more structural and sector-related challenges for European energy policy in more detail, and develops some concrete steps towards a political and regulatory framework necessary to overcome them.

Attitudes of the autism community to early autism research

Investigation into the earliest signs of autism in infants has become a significant sub-field of autism research. This work invokes specific ethical concerns such as use of 'at-risk' language, communicating study findings to parents and the future perspective of enrolled infants when they reach adulthood. This study aimed to ground this research field in an understanding of the perspectives of members of the autism community. Following focus groups to identify topics, an online survey was distributed to autistic adults, parents of children with autism and practitioners in health and education settings across 11 European countries. Survey respondents (n = 2317) were positively disposed towards early autism research, and there was significant overlap in their priorities for the field and preferred language to describe infant research participants. However, there were also differences including overall less favourable endorsement of early autism research by autistic adults relative to other groups and a dislike of the phrase 'at-risk' to describe infant participants, in all groups except healthcare practitioners. The findings overall indicate that the autism community in Europe is supportive of early autism research. Researchers should endeavour to maintain this by continuing to take community perspectives into account.

Role of the cotransporter KCC2 in cortical excitatory synapse development and febrile seizure susceptibility

Le co-transporteur KCC2 spécifique au potassium et chlore a pour rôle principal de réduire la concentration intracellulaire de chlore, entraînant l’hyperpolarisation des courants GABAergic l’autorisant ainsi à devenir inhibiteur dans le cerveau mature. De plus, il est aussi impliqué dans le développement des synapses excitatrices, nommées aussi les épines dendritiques. Le but de notre projet est d’étudier l’effet des modifications concernant l'expression et la fonction de KCC2 dans le cortex du cerveau en développement dans un contexte de convulsions précoces. Les convulsions fébriles affectent environ 5% des enfants, et ce dès la première année de vie. Les enfants atteints de convulsions fébriles prolongées et atypiques sont plus susceptibles à développer l’épilepsie. De plus, la présence d’une malformation cérébrale prédispose au développement de convulsions fébriles atypiques, et d’épilepsie du lobe temporal. Ceci suggère que ces pathologies néonatales peuvent altérer le développement des circuits neuronaux irréversiblement. Cependant, les mécanismes qui sous-tendent ces effets ne sont pas encore compris. Nous avons pour but de comprendre l'impact des altérations de KCC2 sur la survenue des convulsions et dans la formation des épines dendritiques. Nous avons étudié KCC2 dans un modèle animal de convulsions précédemment validé, qui combine une lésion corticale à P1 (premier jour de vie postnatale), suivie d'une convulsion induite par hyperthermie à P10 (nommés rats LHS). À la suite de ces insultes, 86% des rats mâles LHS développent l’épilepsie à l’âge adulte, au même titre que des troubles d’apprentissage. À P20, ces animaux presentent une augmentation de l'expression de KCC2 associée à une hyperpolarisation du potentiel de réversion de GABA. De plus, nous avons observé des réductions dans la taille des épines dendritiques et l'amplitude des courants post-synaptiques excitateurs miniatures, ainsi qu’un déficit de mémoire spatial, et ce avant le développement des convulsions spontanées. Dans le but de rétablir les déficits observés chez les rats LHS, nous avons alors réalisé un knock-down de KCC2 par shARN spécifique par électroporation in utero. Nos résultats ont montré une diminution de la susceptibilité aux convulsions due à la lésion corticale, ainsi qu'une restauration de la taille des épines. Ainsi, l’augmentation de KCC2 à la suite d'une convulsion précoce, augmente la susceptibilité aux convulsions modifiant la morphologie des épines dendritiques, probable facteur contribuant à l’atrophie de l’hippocampe et l’occurrence des déficits cognitifs. Le deuxième objectif a été d'inspecter l’effet de la surexpression précoce de KCC2 dans le développement des épines dendritiques de l’hippocampe. Nous avons ainsi surexprimé KCC2 aussi bien in vitro dans des cultures organotypiques d’hippocampe, qu' in vivo par électroporation in utero. À l'inverse des résultats publiés dans le cortex, nous avons observé une diminution de la densité d’épines dendritiques et une augmentation de la taille des épines. Afin de confirmer la spécificité du rôle de KCC2 face à la région néocorticale étudiée, nous avons surexprimé KCC2 dans le cortex par électroporation in utero. Cette manipulation a eu pour conséquences d’augmenter la densité et la longueur des épines synaptiques de l’arbre dendritique des cellules glutamatergiques. En conséquent, ces résultats ont démontré pour la première fois, que les modifications de l’expression de KCC2 sont spécifiques à la région affectée. Ceci souligne les obstacles auxquels nous faisons face dans le développement de thérapie adéquat pour l’épilepsie ayant pour but de moduler l’expression de KCC2 de façon spécifique.

The role of the G20 in WTO governance

Report by Professor Sungjoon Cho, Associate Professor of Law, Chicago-Kent College of Law (Chair), and Charlotte Sieber-Gasser, Doctoral Research Fellow, World Trade Institute, University of Bern, Session 27, WTO Public Forum 2010: The Forces Shapping World Trade, pp.29-33. In the course of the financial crisis, the global geography of power has shifted from G8 to G20. The latter, although representing roughly two thirds of global trade, consists of relatively a small number of global players and is consequently excluding many others from decision-making at the international stage. Nevertheless, the G20 has been successful in its reaction to the financial crisis and became therewith an important new player within the international community. When highlighting how the G20 might interfere with the WTO, the panel voiced concerns over the political legitimacy of the G20, given the limited number of members and the global impact of its decisions. It agreed on the impression that although the G20 intends to extend its debates from the financial sector to world economy in general, it has so far little achieved in this direction, particularly when it comes to moving the Doha agenda forward. It remains, thus, open how the G20 will evolve in the coming few years, and what mandates it will shed or adopt. So far, the G20 has complemented the WTO and international financial institutions in handling the financial crisis. Yet, even if there is little evidence pointing towards a less cooperative role in the future, the desirability of a G20 commitment in WTO trade negotiations has yet to be debated. The panel concluded by providing ideas on how the potential of the G20 might be used to serve global interests even better in the future. In their concluding remarks, the panellists agreed that it remains to be seen whether or not the G20 will further broaden its agenda. Given the ebbing away of the financial crisis there is even the question whether the G20 will remain an important international forum for financial collaboration, or whether it has already served its cause and will eventually disappear from the international stage. The Chair concluded the well attended and lively panel with voicing the hope that the two international bodies – the G20 and the WTO – will work in a positive way together in the future and face the challenges and opportunities in their collaboration to the benefit of everyone.

Selections from the world's greatest short stories; illustrative of the history of short story writing;

Patient Griselda, from the "Decameron" of Boccaccio. Rewritten in English by the editor.--Aladdin, or The wonderful lamp, from "The Arabian nights".--Rip Van Winkle, by Washington Irving.--A passion in the desert, by Honoré de Balzac. Rewritten in English by the editor.--A child's dream of a star, by Charles Dickens.--A Christmas carol, by Charles Dickens.--A princess's tragedy, from "Barry Lyndon", by W.M. Thackeray.--The gold-bug, by Edgar Allan Poe.--The great stone face, by Nathaniel Hawthorne.--The necklace, and The string, by Guy de Maupassant. Rewritten in English by the editor.--The man who would be king, by Ruyard Kipling.--How Gavin Birse put it to Mag Lownie, from "A window in Thrums", by J.M. Barrie.--On the stairs, from "Tales of mean streets", by Arthur Morrison.

The wisdom of Confucius ; a collection of the ethical sayings of Confucius and of his disciples /

Half-title: International pocket library