Twin experiments with the equivalent weights particle filter and HadCM3

This paper investigates the use of a particle filter for data assimilation with a full scale coupled ocean–atmosphere general circulation model. Synthetic twin experiments are performed to assess the performance of the equivalent weights filter in such a high-dimensional system. Artificial 2-dimensional sea surface temperature fields are used as observational data every day. Results are presented for different values of the free parameters in the method. Measures of the performance of the filter are root mean square errors, trajectories of individual variables in the model and rank histograms. Filter degeneracy is not observed and the performance of the filter is shown to depend on the ability to keep maximum spread in the ensemble.

The role of root exuded low molecular weight organic anions in facilitating petroleum hydrocarbon degradation: current knowledge and future directions

Rhizoremediation is a bioremediation technique whereby enhanced microbial degradation of organic contaminants occurs within the plant root zone (rhizosphere). It is considered an effective and affordable ‘green technology’ for remediating soils contaminated with petroleum hydrocarbons (PHCs). This paper critically reviews the potential role of root exuded compounds in rhizoremediation, with emphasis on commonly exuded low molecular weight aliphatic organic acid anions (carboxylates). The extent to which remediation is achieved shows wide disparity among plant species. Therefore, plant selection is crucial for the advancement and widespread adoption of this technology. Root exudation is speculated to be one of the predominant factors leading to microbial changes in the rhizosphere and thus the potential driver behind enhanced petroleum biodegradation. Carboxylates can form a significant component of the root exudate mixture and are hypothesised to enhance petroleum biodegradation by: i) providing an easily degradable energy source; ii) increasing phosphorus supply; and/or iii) enhancing the contaminant bioavailability. These differing hypotheses, which are not mutually exclusive, require further investigation to progress our understanding of plant–microbe interactions with the aim to improve plant species selection and the efficacy of rhizoremediation.

What you see is what you want to see: motivationally relevant stimuli can interrupt current resource allocation

Arousing stimuli, either threat-related or pleasant, may be selected for priority at different stages within the processing stream. Here we examine the pattern of processing for non-task-relevant threatening (spiders: arousing to some) and pleasant stimuli (babies or chocolate: arousing to all) by recording the gaze of a spider Fearful and Non-fearful group while they performed a simple “follow the cross” task. There was no difference in first saccade latencies. Saccade trajectories showed a general hypervigilance for all stimuli in the Fearful group. Saccade landing positions corresponded to what each group would find arousing, such that the Fearful group deviated towards both types of images whereas the Non-fearful group deviated towards pleasant images. Secondary corrective saccade latencies away from threat-related stimuli were longer for the Fearful group (difficulty in disengaging) compared with the Non-fearful group. These results suggest that attentional biases towards arousing stimuli may occur at different processing stages.

What does current generative theory have to say about the explicit-implicit debate?

Taking a generative perspective, we divide aspects of language into three broad categories: those that cannot be learned (are inherent in Universal Grammar), those that are derived from Universal Grammar, and those that must be learned from the input. Using this framework of language to clarify the “what” of learning, we take the acquisition of null (and overt) subjects in languages like Spanish as an example of how to apply the framework. We demonstrate what properties of a null-subject grammar cannot be learned explicitly, which properties can, but also argue that it is an open empirical question as to whether these latter properties are learned using explicit processes, showing how linguistic and psychological approaches may intersect to better understand acquisition.

Recent progress in understanding and projecting regional and global mean sea-level change

Considerable progress has been made in understanding the present and future regional and global sea level in the 2 years since the publication of the Fifth Assessment Report (AR5) of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Here, we evaluate how the new results affect the AR5’s assessment of (i) historical sea level rise, including attribution of that rise and implications for the sea level budget, (ii) projections of the components and of total global mean sea level (GMSL), and (iii) projections of regional variability and emergence of the anthropogenic signal. In each of these cases, new work largely provides additional evidence in support of the AR5 assessment, providing greater confidence in those findings. Recent analyses confirm the twentieth century sea level rise, with some analyses showing a slightly smaller rate before 1990 and some a slightly larger value than reported in the AR5. There is now more evidence of an acceleration in the rate of rise. Ongoing ocean heat uptake and associated thermal expansion have continued since 2000, and are consistent with ocean thermal expansion reported in the AR5. A significant amount of heat is being stored deeper in the water column, with a larger rate of heat uptake since 2000 compared to the previous decades and with the largest storage in the Southern Ocean. The first formal detection studies for ocean thermal expansion and glacier mass loss since the AR5 have confirmed the AR5 finding of a significant anthropogenic contribution to sea level rise over the last 50 years. New projections of glacier loss from two regions suggest smaller contributions to GMSL rise from these regions than in studies assessed by the AR5; additional regional studies are required to further assess whether there are broader implications of these results. Mass loss from the Greenland Ice Sheet, primarily as a result of increased surface melting, and from the Antarctic Ice Sheet, primarily as a result of increased ice discharge, has accelerated. The largest estimates of acceleration in mass loss from the two ice sheets for 2003–2013 equal or exceed the acceleration of GMSL rise calculated from the satellite altimeter sea level record over the longer period of 1993–2014. However, when increased mass gain in land water storage and parts of East Antarctica, and decreased mass loss from glaciers in Alaska and some other regions are taken into account, the net acceleration in the ocean mass gain is consistent with the satellite altimeter record. New studies suggest that a marine ice sheet instability (MISI) may have been initiated in parts of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet (WAIS), but that it will affect only a limited number of ice streams in the twenty-first century. New projections of mass loss from the Greenland and Antarctic Ice Sheets by 2100, including a contribution from parts of WAIS undergoing unstable retreat, suggest a contribution that falls largely within the likely range (i.e., two thirds probability) of the AR5. These new results increase confidence in the AR5 likely range, indicating that there is a greater probability that sea level rise by 2100 will lie in this range with a corresponding decrease in the likelihood of an additional contribution of several tens of centimeters above the likely range. In view of the comparatively limited state of knowledge and understanding of rapid ice sheet dynamics, we continue to think that it is not yet possible to make reliable quantitative estimates of future GMSL rise outside the likely range. Projections of twenty-first century GMSL rise published since the AR5 depend on results from expert elicitation, but we have low confidence in conclusions based on these approaches. New work on regional projections and emergence of the anthropogenic signal suggests that the two commonly predicted features of future regional sea level change (the increasing tilt across the Antarctic Circumpolar Current and the dipole in the North Atlantic) are related to regional changes in wind stress and surface heat flux. Moreover, it is expected that sea level change in response to anthropogenic forcing, particularly in regions of relatively low unforced variability such as the low-latitude Atlantic, will be detectable over most of the ocean by 2040. The east-west contrast of sea level trends in the Pacific observed since the early 1990s cannot be satisfactorily accounted for by climate models, nor yet definitively attributed either to unforced variability or forced climate change.

Low-grade inflammation, diet composition and health: current research evidence and its translation

The importance of chronic low-grade inflammation in the pathology of numerous age-related chronic conditions is now clear. An unresolved inflammatory response is likely to be involved from the early stages of disease development. The present position paper is the most recent in a series produced by the International Life Sciences Institute's European Branch (ILSI Europe). It is co-authored by the speakers from a 2013 workshop led by the Obesity and Diabetes Task Force entitled ‘Low-grade inflammation, a high-grade challenge: biomarkers and modulation by dietary strategies’. The latest research in the areas of acute and chronic inflammation and cardiometabolic, gut and cognitive health is presented along with the cellular and molecular mechanisms underlying inflammation–health/disease associations. The evidence relating diet composition and early-life nutrition to inflammatory status is reviewed. Human epidemiological and intervention data are thus far heavily reliant on the measurement of inflammatory markers in the circulation, and in particular cytokines in the fasting state, which are recognised as an insensitive and highly variable index of tissue inflammation. Potential novel kinetic and integrated approaches to capture inflammatory status in humans are discussed. Such approaches are likely to provide a more discriminating means of quantifying inflammation–health/disease associations, and the ability of diet to positively modulate inflammation and provide the much needed evidence to develop research portfolios that will inform new product development and associated health claims.

Generation and Evolution of Natal Pulses: Solitary Meanders in the Agulhas Current

Solitar y meanders of the Agulhas Current, so-called Natal pulses, may play an important role in the overall dynamics of this current system. Several hypotheses concer ning the triggering of these pulses are tested using sea sur face height and temperature data from satellites. The data show the for mation of pulses in the Natal Bight area at irregular inter vals ranging from 50 to 240 days. Moving downstream at speeds between 10 and 20 km day 2 1 they sometimes reach sizes of up to 300 km. They seem to play a role in the shedding of Agulhas rings that penetrate the South Atlantic. The inter mittent for mation of these solitar y meanders is argued to be most probably related to barotropic instability of the strongly baroclinic Agulhas Current in the Natal Bight. The vorticity structure of the obser ved basic flow is argued to be stable anywhere along its path. However , a proper perturbation of the jet in the Natal Bight area will allow barotropic instability , because the bottom slope there is considerably less steep than elsewhere along the South African east coast. Using satellite altimetr y these perturbations seem to be related to the inter mittent presence of offshore anticyclonic anomalies, both upstream and eastward of the Natal Bight.

Assimilation of Geosat Altimeter Data for the Agulhas Current Using the Ensemble Kalman Filter with a Quasigeostrophic Model

The ring-shedding process in the Agulhas Current is studied using the ensemble Kalman filter to assimilate geosat altimeter data into a two-layer quasigeostrophic ocean model. The properties of the ensemble Kalman filter are further explored with focus on the analysis scheme and the use of gridded data. The Geosat data consist of 10 fields of gridded sea-surface height anomalies separated 10 days apart that are added to a climatic mean field. This corresponds to a huge number of data values, and a data reduction scheme must be applied to increase the efficiency of the analysis procedure. Further, it is illustrated how one can resolve the rank problem occurring when a too large dataset or a small ensemble is used.

Lightning as a space-weather hazard: UK thunderstorm activity modulated by the passage of the heliospheric current sheet

Lightning flash rates, RL, are modulated by corotating interaction regions (CIRs) and the polarity of the heliospheric magnetic field (HMF) in near-Earth space. As the HMF polarity reverses at the heliospheric current sheet (HCS), typically within a CIR, these phenomena are likely related. In this study, RL is found to be significantly enhanced at the HCS and at 27 days prior/after. The strength of the enhancement depends on the polarity of the HMF reversal at the HCS. Near-Earth solar and galactic energetic particle fluxes are also ordered by HMF polarity, though the variations qualitatively differ from RL, with the main increase occurring prior to the HCS crossing. Thus, the CIR effect on lightning is either the result of compression/amplification of the HMF (and its subsequent interaction with the terrestrial system) or that energetic particle preconditioning of the Earth system prior to the HMF polarity change is central to solar wind lightning coupling mechanism.

Sensory and consumer science methods used with older adults: a review of current methods and recommendations for the future

Capturing the sensory perception and preferences of older adults, whether healthy or with particular disease states, poses major methodological challenges for the sensory community. Currently a vastly under researched area, it is at the same time a vital area of research as alterations in sensory perception can affect daily dietary food choices, intake, health and wellbeing. Tailored sensory methods are needed that take into account the challenges of working with such populations including poor access leading to low patient numbers (study power), cognitive abilities, use of medications, clinical treatments and context (hospitals and care homes). The objective of this paper was to review current analytical and affective sensory methodologies used with different cohorts of healthy and frail older adults, with focus on food preference and liking. We particularly drew attention to studies concerning general ageing as well as to those considering age-related diseases that have an emphasis on malnutrition and weight loss. Pubmed and Web of Science databases were searched to 2014 for relevant articles in English. From this search 75 papers concerning sensory acuity, 41 regarding perceived intensity and 73 relating to hedonic measures were reviewed. Simpler testing methods, such as directional forced choice tests and paired preference tests need to be further explored to determine whether they lead to more reliable results and better inter-cohort comparisons. Finally, sensory quality and related quality of life for older adults suffering from dementia must be included and not ignored in our future actions.

Ocean heat content variability and change in an ensemble of ocean reanalyses

Accurate knowledge of the location and magnitude of ocean heat content (OHC) variability and change is essential for understanding the processes that govern decadal variations in surface temperature, quantifying changes in the planetary energy budget, and developing constraints on the transient climate response to external forcings. We present an overview of the temporal and spatial characteristics of OHC variability and change as represented by an ensemble of dynamical and statistical ocean reanalyses (ORAs). Spatial maps of the 0–300 m layer show large regions of the Pacific and Indian Oceans where the interannual variability of the ensemble mean exceeds ensemble spread, indicating that OHC variations are well-constrained by the available observations over the period 1993–2009. At deeper levels, the ORAs are less well-constrained by observations with the largest differences across the ensemble mostly associated with areas of high eddy kinetic energy, such as the Southern Ocean and boundary current regions. Spatial patterns of OHC change for the period 1997–2009 show good agreement in the upper 300 m and are characterized by a strong dipole pattern in the Pacific Ocean. There is less agreement in the patterns of change at deeper levels, potentially linked to differences in the representation of ocean dynamics, such as water mass formation processes. However, the Atlantic and Southern Oceans are regions in which many ORAs show widespread warming below 700 m over the period 1997–2009. Annual time series of global and hemispheric OHC change for 0–700 m show the largest spread for the data sparse Southern Hemisphere and a number of ORAs seem to be subject to large initialization ‘shock’ over the first few years. In agreement with previous studies, a number of ORAs exhibit enhanced ocean heat uptake below 300 and 700 m during the mid-1990s or early 2000s. The ORA ensemble mean (±1 standard deviation) of rolling 5-year trends in full-depth OHC shows a relatively steady heat uptake of approximately 0.9 ± 0.8 W m−2 (expressed relative to Earth’s surface area) between 1995 and 2002, which reduces to about 0.2 ± 0.6 W m−2 between 2004 and 2006, in qualitative agreement with recent analysis of Earth’s energy imbalance. There is a marked reduction in the ensemble spread of OHC trends below 300 m as the Argo profiling float observations become available in the early 2000s. In general, we suggest that ORAs should be treated with caution when employed to understand past ocean warming trends—especially when considering the deeper ocean where there is little in the way of observational constraints. The current work emphasizes the need to better observe the deep ocean, both for providing observational constraints for future ocean state estimation efforts and also to develop improved models and data assimilation methods.

The water vapour continuum in near-infrared windows – current understanding and prospects for its inclusion in spectroscopic databases

Spectroscopic catalogues, such as GEISA and HITRAN, do not yet include information on the water vapour continuum that pervades visible, infrared and microwave spectral regions. This is partly because, in some spectral regions, there are rather few laboratory measurements in conditions close to those in the Earth’s atmosphere; hence understanding of the characteristics of the continuum absorption is still emerging. This is particularly so in the near-infrared and visible, where there has been renewed interest and activity in recent years. In this paper we present a critical review focusing on recent laboratory measurements in two near-infrared window regions (centred on 4700 and 6300 cm−1) and include reference to the window centred on 2600 cm−1 where more measurements have been reported. The rather few available measurements, have used Fourier transform spectroscopy (FTS), cavity ring down spectroscopy, optical-feedback – cavity enhanced laser spectroscopy and, in very narrow regions, calorimetric interferometry. These systems have different advantages and disadvantages. Fourier Transform Spectroscopy can measure the continuum across both these and neighbouring windows; by contrast, the cavity laser techniques are limited to fewer wavenumbers, but have a much higher inherent sensitivity. The available results present a diverse view of the characteristics of continuum absorption, with differences in continuum strength exceeding a factor of 10 in the cores of these windows. In individual windows, the temperature dependence of the water vapour self-continuum differs significantly in the few sets of measurements that allow an analysis. The available data also indicate that the temperature dependence differs significantly between different near-infrared windows. These pioneering measurements provide an impetus for further measurements. Improvements and/or extensions in existing techniques would aid progress to a full characterisation of the continuum – as an example, we report pilot measurements of the water vapour self-continuum using a supercontinuum laser source coupled to an FTS. Such improvements, as well as additional measurements and analyses in other laboratories, would enable the inclusion of the water vapour continuum in future spectroscopic databases, and therefore allow for a more reliable forward modelling of the radiative properties of the atmosphere. It would also allow a more confident assessment of different theoretical descriptions of the underlying cause or causes of continuum absorption.

New use of global warming potentials to compare cumulative and short-lived climate pollutants

Parties to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) have requested guidance on common greenhouse gas metrics in accounting for Nationally determined contributions (NDCs) to emission reductions1. Metric choice can affect the relative emphasis placed on reductions of ‘cumulative climate pollutants’ such as carbon dioxide versus ‘short-lived climate pollutants’ (SLCPs), including methane and black carbon2, 3, 4, 5, 6. Here we show that the widely used 100-year global warming potential (GWP100) effectively measures the relative impact of both cumulative pollutants and SLCPs on realized warming 20–40 years after the time of emission. If the overall goal of climate policy is to limit peak warming, GWP100 therefore overstates the importance of current SLCP emissions unless stringent and immediate reductions of all climate pollutants result in temperatures nearing their peak soon after mid-century7, 8, 9, 10, which may be necessary to limit warming to “well below 2 °C” (ref. 1). The GWP100 can be used to approximately equate a one-off pulse emission of a cumulative pollutant and an indefinitely sustained change in the rate of emission of an SLCP11, 12, 13. The climate implications of traditional CO2-equivalent targets are ambiguous unless contributions from cumulative pollutants and SLCPs are specified separately.

Review of current in vivo measurement techniques for quantifying enteric methane emission from ruminants

Ruminant husbandry is a major source of anthropogenic greenhouse gases (GHG). Filling knowledge gaps and providing expert recommendation are important for defining future research priorities, improving methodologies and establishing science-based GHG mitigation solutions to government and non-governmental organisations, advisory/extension networks, and the ruminant livestock sector. The objectives of this review is to summarize published literature to provide a detailed assessment of the methodologies currently in use for measuring enteric methane (CH4) emission from individual animals under specific conditions, and give recommendations regarding their application. The methods described include respiration chambers and enclosures, sulphur hexafluoride tracer (SF6) technique, and techniques based on short-term measurements of gas concentrations in samples of exhaled air. This includes automated head chambers (e.g. the GreenFeed system), the use of carbon dioxide (CO2) as a marker, and (handheld) laser CH4 detection. Each of the techniques are compared and assessed on their capability and limitations, followed by methodology recommendations. It is concluded that there is no ‘one size fits all’ method for measuring CH4 emission by individual animals. Ultimately, the decision as to which method to use should be based on the experimental objectives and resources available. However, the need for high throughput methodology e.g. for screening large numbers of animals for genomic studies, does not justify the use of methods that are inaccurate. All CH4 measurement techniques are subject to experimental variation and random errors. Many sources of variation must be considered when measuring CH4 concentration in exhaled air samples without a quantitative or at least regular collection rate, or use of a marker to indicate (or adjust) for the proportion of exhaled CH4 sampled. Consideration of the number and timing of measurements relative to diurnal patterns of CH4 emission and respiratory exchange are important, as well as consideration of feeding patterns and associated patterns of rumen fermentation rate and other aspects of animal behaviour. Regardless of the method chosen, appropriate calibrations and recovery tests are required for both method establishment and routine operation. Successful and correct use of methods requires careful attention to detail, rigour, and routine self-assessment of the quality of the data they provide.