Predicting the frequency dispersion of electronic hyperpolarizabilities on the basis of absorption data and thomas-kuhn sum rules

Successfully predicting the frequency dispersion of electronic hyperpolarizabilities is an unresolved challenge in materials science and electronic structure theory. We show that the generalized Thomas-Kuhn sum rules, combined with linear absorption data and measured hyperpolarizability at one or two frequencies, may be used to predict the entire frequency-dependent electronic hyperpolarizability spectrum. This treatment includes two- and three-level contributions that arise from the lowest two or three excited electronic state manifolds, enabling us to describe the unusual observed frequency dispersion of the dynamic hyperpolarizability in high oscillator strength M-PZn chromophores, where (porphinato)zinc(II) (PZn) and metal(II)polypyridyl (M) units are connected via an ethyne unit that aligns the high oscillator strength transition dipoles of these components in a head-to-tail arrangement. We show that some of these structures can possess very similar linear absorption spectra yet manifest dramatically different frequency dependent hyperpolarizabilities, because of three-level contributions that result from excited state-to excited state transition dipoles among charge polarized states. Importantly, this approach provides a quantitative scheme to use linear optical absorption spectra and very limited individual hyperpolarizability measurements to predict the entire frequency-dependent nonlinear optical response. Copyright © 2010 American Chemical Society.

Bayes and empirical-Bayes multiplicity adjustment in the variable-selection problem

This paper studies the multiplicity-correction effect of standard Bayesian variable-selection priors in linear regression. Our first goal is to clarify when, and how, multiplicity correction happens automatically in Bayesian analysis, and to distinguish this correction from the Bayesian Ockham's-razor effect. Our second goal is to contrast empirical-Bayes and fully Bayesian approaches to variable selection through examples, theoretical results and simulations. Considerable differences between the two approaches are found. In particular, we prove a theorem that characterizes a surprising aymptotic discrepancy between fully Bayes and empirical Bayes. This discrepancy arises from a different source than the failure to account for hyperparameter uncertainty in the empirical-Bayes estimate. Indeed, even at the extreme, when the empirical-Bayes estimate converges asymptotically to the true variable-inclusion probability, the potential for a serious difference remains. © Institute of Mathematical Statistics, 2010.

The empirical analysis of cigarette tax avoidance and illicit trade in Vietnam, 1998-2010.

Illicit trade carries the potential to magnify existing tobacco-related health care costs through increased availability of untaxed and inexpensive cigarettes. What is known with respect to the magnitude of illicit trade for Vietnam is produced primarily by the industry, and methodologies are typically opaque. Independent assessment of the illicit cigarette trade in Vietnam is vital to tobacco control policy. This paper measures the magnitude of illicit cigarette trade for Vietnam between 1998 and 2010 using two methods, discrepancies between legitimate domestic cigarette sales and domestic tobacco consumption estimated from surveys, and trade discrepancies as recorded by Vietnam and trade partners. The results indicate that Vietnam likely experienced net smuggling in during the period studied. With the inclusion of adjustments for survey respondent under-reporting, inward illicit trade likely occurred in three of the four years for which surveys were available. Discrepancies in trade records indicate that the value of smuggled cigarettes into Vietnam ranges from $100 million to $300 million between 2000 and 2010 and that these cigarettes primarily originate in Singapore, Hong Kong, Macao, Malaysia, and Australia. Notable differences in trends over time exist between the two methods, but by comparison, the industry estimates consistently place the magnitude of illicit trade at the upper bounds of what this study shows. The unavailability of annual, survey-based estimates of consumption may obscure the true, annual trend over time. Second, as surveys changed over time, estimates relying on them may be inconsistent with one another. Finally, these two methods measure different components of illicit trade, specifically consumption of illicit cigarettes regardless of origin and smuggling of cigarettes into a particular market. However, absent a gold standard, comparisons of different approaches to illicit trade measurement serve efforts to refine and improve measurement approaches and estimates.

Comparing the model-simulated global warming signal to observations using empirical estimates of unforced noise.

The comparison of observed global mean surface air temperature (GMT) change to the mean change simulated by climate models has received much public and scientific attention. For a given global warming signal produced by a climate model ensemble, there exists an envelope of GMT values representing the range of possible unforced states of the climate system (the Envelope of Unforced Noise; EUN). Typically, the EUN is derived from climate models themselves, but climate models might not accurately simulate the correct characteristics of unforced GMT variability. Here, we simulate a new, empirical, EUN that is based on instrumental and reconstructed surface temperature records. We compare the forced GMT signal produced by climate models to observations while noting the range of GMT values provided by the empirical EUN. We find that the empirical EUN is wide enough so that the interdecadal variability in the rate of global warming over the 20(th) century does not necessarily require corresponding variability in the rate-of-increase of the forced signal. The empirical EUN also indicates that the reduced GMT warming over the past decade or so is still consistent with a middle emission scenario's forced signal, but is likely inconsistent with the steepest emission scenario's forced signal.

Empirical measurement of illicit tobacco trade in the Philippines.

Cigarette smuggling reduces the price of cigarettes, thwarts youth access restrictions, reduces government revenue, and undercuts the ability of taxes to reduce consumption. The tobacco industry often opposes increases to tobacco taxes on the claim that greater taxes induce more smuggling. To date, little is known about the magnitude of smuggling in the Philippines. his information is necessary to effectively address illicit trade and to measure the impacts of tax changes and the introduction of secure tax markings on illicit trade. This study employs two gap discrepancy methods to estimate the magnitude of illicit trade in cigarettes for the Philippines between 1994 and 2009. First, domestic consumption is compared with tax-paid sales to measure the consumption of illicit cigarettes. Second, imports recorded by the Philippines are compared with exports to the Philippines by trade partners to measure smuggling. Domestic consumption fell short of tax-paid sales for all survey years. The magnitude of these differences and a comparison with a prevalence survey for 2009 suggest a high level of survey under-reporting of smoking. In the late 1990s and the mid 2000s, the Philippines experienced two sharp declines in trade discrepancies, from a high of $750 million in 1995 to a low of $133.7 million in 2008. Discrepancies composed more than one-third of the domestic market in 1995, but only 10 percent in 2009. Hong Kong, Singapore, and China together account for more than 80 percent of the cumulative discrepancies over the period and 74 percent of the discrepancy in 2009. The presence of large discrepancies supports the need to implement an effective tax marking and tobacco track and trace system to reduce illicit trade and support tax collection. The absence of a relation between tax changes and smuggling suggests that potential increases in the excise tax should not be discouraged by illicit trade. Finally, the identification of specific trade partners as primary sources for illicit trade may facilitate targeted efforts in cooperation with these governments to reduce illicit trade.

Comparison of the experimental, semi-experimental and ab initio equilibrium structures of acetylene: Influence of relativisitic effects and of the diagonal Born-Oppenheimer corrections

The equilibrium structure of acetylene (also named ethyne) has been reinvestigated to resolve the small discrepancies noted between different determinations. The size of the system as well as the large amount of available experimental data provides the quite unique opportunity to check the magnitude and relevance of various contributions to equilibrium structure as well as to verify the accuracy of experimental results. With respect to pure theoretical investigation, quantum-chemical calculations at the coupled-cluster level have been employed together with extrapolation to the basis set limit, consideration of higher excitations in the cluster operator, inclusion of core correlation effects as well as relativistic and diagonal Born-Oppenheimer corrections. In particular, it is found that the extrapolation to the complete basis set limit, the inclusion of higher excitations in the electronic-correlation treatment and the relativistic corrections are of the same order of magnitude. It also appears that a basis set as large as a core-valence quintuple-zeta set is required for accurately accounting for the inner-shell correlation contribution. From a pure experimental point of view, the equilibrium structure has been determined using very accurate rotational constants recently obtained by a global analysis (that is to say that all non-negligible interactions are explicitely included in the Hamiltonian matrix) of rovibrational spectra. Finally, a semi-experimental equilibrium structure (where the equilibrium rotational constants are obtained from the experimental ground state rotational constants and computed rovibrational corrections) has been obtained from the available experimental ground-state rotational constants for ten isotopic species corrected for computed vibrational corrections. Such a determination led to the revision of the ground-state rotational constants of two isotopologues, thus showing that structural determination is a good method to identify errors in experimental rotational constants. The three structures are found in a very good agreement, and our recommended values are rCC 120.2958(7) pm and rCH 106.164(1) pm. © 2011 American Institute of Physics.

Atmospheric dispersion, environmental effects and potential health hazard associated with the low-altitude gas plume of Masaya volcano, Nicaragua

info:eu-repo/semantics/published