Forecasting Elections with High Volatility

This article uses data from the social survey Allbus 1998 to introduce a method of forecasting elections in a context of electoral volatility. The approach models the processes of change in electoral behaviour, exploring patterns in order to model the volatility expressed by voters. The forecast is based on the matrix of transition probabilities, following the logic of Markov chains. The power of the matrix, and the use of the mover-stayer model, is debated for alternative forecasts. As an example of high volatility, the model uses data from the German general election of 1998. The unification of two German states in 1990 caused the incorporation of around 15 million new voters from East Germany who had limited familiarity and no direct experience of the political culture in West Germany. Under these circumstances, voters were expected to show high volatility.

Multimodal analysis of a sample of political posters in Ireland during and after the Celtic Tiger

The aim of this research paper is to analyse the key political posters made for the campaigns of Irish political party Fianna Fáil framed in the Celtic Tiger (1997-2008) and post-Celtic Tiger years (2009-2012). I will then focus on the four posters of the candidate in the elections that took place in 1997, 2002, 2007 and 2011 with the intention of observing first how the leader is represented, and later on pinpointing the similarities and possible differences between each. This is important in order to observe the main linguistic and visual strategies used to persuade the audience to vote that party and to highlight the power of the politician. Critical discourse analysis tools will be helpful to identify the main discursive strategies employed to persuade the Irish population to vote in a certain direction. Van Leeuwen’s (2008) social actor theory will facilitate the understanding of how participants are represented in the corpus under analysis. Finally, the main tools of Kress and van Leeuwen’s visual grammar (2006) will be applied for the analysis of the images. The study reveals that politicians are represented in a consistently positive way, with status and formal appearance so that people are persuaded to vote for the party they represent because they trust them as political leaders. The study, thus, points out that the poster is a powerful tool used in election campaigns to highlight the power of political parties.

Wale watu

"Paul and Mary are two people who are from different tribes and deeply in love. Their families share a close relationship and everything looks well for their wedding. However, with the out break of the post-election violence. Dr. Sawega, Paul's father, loses his clinic and his brother through arson. Stoked by politicians and tribalists, things get tense between the two families and the entire nation."--Spaceyangu.com.ar

Abandoned and forgotten: the sad story of Kenya's internally displaced persons

This documentary is about the internal displacement of ethnic minorities brought about by politically instigated post-election violence towards ethnic minorities in all eight provinces, namely, Coast, Rift Valley, Western, Eastern, North Eastern, Central Kenya, Nairobi, and Nyanza. During the years of 1991 to 1996, over 15,000 people died and almost 300,000 were displaced in the Rift Valley, Central, Nyanza and Western provinces. Before the 1997 elections, violence erupted. Again, following the disputed presidential elections in December 2007 politically and ethnically instigated displacements resulted in human rights violations against 600,000 people in 8 provinces of Kenya.

Address to the students read in the Chapel, 1805 April 23

2-page handwritten copy of an address by Eliphalet Pearson relaying the votes of the Faculty recommending that students avoid "mixing with the inhabitants of the town" on election days following the students disruption of town election meetings on April 1, 1805.

L.B.'s letter respecting excuse to president of College, 1797 August 31

Brief handwritten note to Loammi Baldwin from his son requesting a written excuse to be sent to the Harvard President for his absence on election day.

Letter from Stephen Longfellow to Daniel Appleton White, 1799 May 29

Stephen Longfellow wrote this letter in Portland, Maine on May 29, 1799; it was sent to his friend, Daniel Appleton White, in Medford, Massachusetts. In the letter, Longfellow describes the Election Day festivities among the "plebeans" in Portland, which he apparently found both amusing and upsetting. He compares the horses pulling their sleds to Don Quixote's horse, Rocinante. He also writes about mutual friends, including John Henry Tudor and Jabez Kimball, and bemoans the behavior of the current members of Phi Beta Kappa among the Harvard College undergraduates, whom he insists have sunk the society below its former "exalted station."

Triennial Catalogue annotated by Jeremy Belknap, 1791

The collection holds a heavily interleaved 1791 Triennial Catalogue annotated, in part, by Jeremy Belknap. A note by Harvard Librarian John Langdon Sibley, on the verso of the flyleaf, indicates a second annotator: "It should be observed that this catalogue is in the handwriting of two persons, Dr. Belknap & probably interlineations & additions by Rev. Dr. [John] Eliot. The interlineing part should not be too confidently relied on for accuracy. J. L. Sibley, April 14, 1848." The volume contains biographical notes, newspaper clippings, excerpts from manuscript and printed sources such as New England's First Fruits, the manuscript memoirs of Charles Chauncey, and John Winthrop's Journal, and a 1795 letter from Isaac Mansfield. In the letter, Mansfield references an item he believed to be written by his grandfather, Ames Cheever (Harvard AB 1707), and briefly describes his grandfather. A list of election sermon orators with dates is also pasted into the inside back cover, along with an obituary of the Rev. John Wales (Harvard AB 1728) from the Boston Post-Boy, March 4, 1765.

Letter to Samuel Dexter, 13 November 1796

Letter regarding a bankruptcy case, later heard by the U.S. Supreme Court in 1797 (3 Dallas 369; Emory v. Greenough) and the upcoming national election.

Letters from William Tudor to his father, William Tudor, approximately

Two letters in which Tudor carefully debates the merits of careers in law versus mercantilism, and discusses the business prospects of several young merchants, a journey Tudor took with his brother, Frederic, throughout New England, and the state of politics, including the election to Congress of James Otis, and Thomas Jefferson’s prospects for the presidency.

Letters from Thomas Handasyd Perkins to William Tudor,

Three letters written to Tudor in Peru. Perkins responds to Tudor’s reports on the prospects of trade in South America and reflects on other issues relating to trade. He also relays details of Lafayette’s visit to America and the public’s reception. One letter discusses Spanish pressure on the United States relating to the war and responds to Tudor’s letters regarding the General Carrington. He also comments on the election at home: "Adams will probably be president."

Letters from Thomas Handasyd Perkins to William Tudor,

Five letters in which Perkins comments on the political landscape in the United States, the election of Andrew Jackson as president, Boston architectural and real estate developments, and the Granite Railway and granite quarries in Quincy.

Letters from T. Morton Jones to William Tudor,

Four letters regarding the nail business, including information on prices, designs, and types of metals. Also included is news of friends and a description of festivities on election day in Birmingham, and Jones’ thoughts on politics and the fate of Napoleon. The last letter regards an unsettled account related to the nail factory.

Letters from Alfred Cobb to William Tudor,

Six letters reporting on communications with American merchants and naval officers, and various incidents involving American vessels. He also comments on the election of John Quincy Adams as president. Cobb includes copies of his correspodence with Lieutenant John Percival regarding the interception of Percival’s ship by Chilean Admiral Manuel Blanco Encalada.

Letters from Michael Hogan to William Tudor,

Four letters discussing news of friends and domestic politics and the presidential election, in addition to trade and purchases of certain goods.