Out-of-sample forecast tests robust to the choice of window size

This paper proposes new methodologies for evaluating out-of-sample forecastingperformance that are robust to the choice of the estimation window size. The methodologies involve evaluating the predictive ability of forecasting models over a wide rangeof window sizes. We show that the tests proposed in the literature may lack the powerto detect predictive ability and might be subject to data snooping across differentwindow sizes if used repeatedly. An empirical application shows the usefulness of themethodologies for evaluating exchange rate models' forecasting ability.

Saving lives: Evidence from a conditional food supplementation program

Many governments in developing countries implement programs that aim to address nutrionalfailures in early childhood, yet evidence on the effectiveness of these interventions is scant. Thispaper evaluates the impact of a conditional food supplementation program on child mortality inEcuador. The Programa de Alimentaci?n y Nutrici?n Nacional (PANN) 2000 was implementedby regular staff at local public health posts and consisted of offering a free micronutrient-fortifiedfood, Mi Papilla, for children aged 6 to 24 months in exchange for routine health check-ups forthe children. Our regression discontinuity design exploits the fact that at its inception, the PANN2000 was running for about 8 months only in the poorest communities (parroquias) of certainprovinces. Our main result is that the presence of the program reduced child mortality in cohortswith 8 months of differential exposure from a level of about 2.5 percent by 1 to 1.5 percentagepoints.

Complete nucleotide sequence of Birmingham IncP alpha plasmids. Compilation and comparative analysis.

The IncP alpha promiscuous plasmid (R18, R68, RK2, RP1 and RP4) comprises 60,099 bp of nucleotide sequence, encoding at least 74 genes. About 40 kb of the genome, designated the IncP core and including all essential replication and transfer functions, can be aligned with equivalent sequences in the IncP beta plasmid R751. The compiled IncP alpha sequence revealed several previously unidentified reading frames that are potential genes. IncP alpha plasmids carry genetic information very efficiently: the coding sequences of the genes are closely packed but rarely overlap, and occupy almost 86% of the genome's nucleotide sequence. All of the 74 genes should be expressed, although there is as yet experimental evidence for expression of only 60 of them. Six examples of tandem-in-frame initiation sites specifying two gene products each are known. Two overlapping gene arrangements occupy different reading frames of the same region. Intergenic regions include most of the 25 promoters; transcripts are usually polycistronic. Translation of most of the open reading frames seems to be initiated independently, each from its own ribosomal binding and initiation site, although, a few cases of coupled translation have been reported. The most frequently used initiation codon is AUG but translation for a few open reading frames begins at GUG or UUG. The most common stop-codon is UGA followed by UAA and then UAG. Regulatory circuits are complex and largely dependent on two components of the central control operon. KorA and KorB are transcriptional repressors controlling at least seven operons. KorA and KorB act synergistically in several cases by recognizing and binding to conserved nucleotide sequences. Twelve KorB binding sites were found around the IncP alpha sequence and these are conserved in R751 (IncP beta) with respect to both sequence and location. Replication of IncP alpha plasmids requires oriV and the plasmid-encoded initiator protein TrfA in combination with the host-encoded replication machinery. Conjugative plasmid transfer depends on two separate regions occupying about half of the genome. The primary segregational stability system designated Par/Mrs consists of a putative site-specific recombinase, a possible partitioning apparatus and a post-segregational lethality mechanism, all encoded in two divergent operons. Proteins related to the products of F sop and P1 par partitioning genes are separately encoded in the central control operon.

Combined Serum Creatinine and Cystatin C Schwartz Formula Predicts Kidney Function Better than the Combined CKD-EPI Formula in Children.

Background: The combined serum creatinine (SCreat) and cystatin C (CysC) CKD-EPI formula constitutes a new advance for glomerular filtration rate (GFR) estimation in adults. Using inulin clearances (iGFRs), the revised SCreat and the combined Schwartz formulas, this study aims to evaluate the applicability of the combined CKD-EPI formula in children. Method: 201 iGFRs for 201 children were analyzed and divided by chronic kidney disease (CKD) stages (iGFRs ≥90 ml/min/1.73 m(2), 90 > iGFRs > 60, and iGFRs ≤59), and by age groups (<10, 10-15, and >15 years). Medians with 95% confidence intervals of bias, precision, and accuracies within 30% of the iGFRs, for all three formulas, were compared using the Wilcoxon signed-rank test. Results: For the entire cohort and for all CKD and age groups, medians of bias for the CKD-EPI formula were significantly higher (p < 0.001) and precision was significantly lower than the solely SCreat and the combined SCreat and CysC Schwartz formulas. We also found that using the CKD-EPI formula, bias decreased and accuracy increased while the child age group increased, with a better formula performance above 15 years of age. However, the CKD-EPI formula accuracy is 58% compared to 93 and 92% for the SCreat and combined Schwartz formulas in this adolescent group. Conclusions: The performance of the combined CKD-EPI formula improves in adolescence compared with younger ages. Nevertheless, the CKD-EPI formula performs more poorly than the SCreat and the combined Schwartz formula in pediatric population. © 2013 S. Karger AG, Basel.

Cigarette and Tobacco Receipts Report, September 2014

This is a report for the Iowa Department of Revenue and Finance about the receipts on cigarettes and tobacco for each month of the year. This receipt is the tax of each sale of cigarettes and tobacco.

Cigarette and Tobacco Receipts Report, October 2014

This is a report for the Iowa Department of Revenue and Finance about the receipts on cigarettes and tobacco for each month of the year. This receipt is the tax of each sale of cigarettes and tobacco.

Pathogenesis of streptococcal and staphylococcal endocarditis.

Although streptococcal and S. aureus IE share the same primary site of infection, their pathogenesis and clinical evolution present several major differences. Streptococci adhere to cardiac valves with pre-existing endothelial lesions. In contrast, S. aureus can colonize either damaged endothelium or invade physically intact endothelial cells. These interactions are mediated by multiple surface adhesins, some of which have been only partially characterized. Streptococci produce surface glucans (gtf and ftf), ECM adhesins (e.g., fibronectin-binding proteins, FimA), and platelet aggregating factors (phase I and phase II antigens, pblA, pblB, and pblT), all of which have been.

A general theory of rank testing

This paper develops an approach to rank testing that nests all existing rank tests andsimplifies their asymptotics. The approach is based on the fact that implicit in every ranktest there are estimators of the null spaces of the matrix in question. The approach yieldsmany new insights about the behavior of rank testing statistics under the null as well as localand global alternatives in both the standard and the cointegration setting. The approach alsosuggests many new rank tests based on alternative estimates of the null spaces as well as thenew fixed-b theory. A brief Monte Carlo study illustrates the results.

Dynamic models of energy allocation and investment

In dynamic models of energy allocation, assimilated energy is allocated to reproduction, somatic growth, maintenance or storage, and the allocation pattern can change with age. The expected evolutionary outcome is an optimal allocation pattern, but this depends on the environment experienced during the evolutionary process and on the fitness costs and benefits incurred by allocating resources in different ways. Here we review existing treatments which encompass some of the possibilities as regards constant or variable environments and their predictability or unpredictability, and the ways in which production rates and mortality rates depend on body size and composition and age and on the pattern of energy allocation. The optimal policy is to allocate resources where selection pressures are highest, and simultaneous allocation to several body subsystems and reproduction can be optimal if these pressures are equal. This may explain balanced growth commonly observed during ontogeny. Growth ceases at maturity in many models; factors favouring growth after maturity include non-linear trade-offs, variable season length, and production and mortality rates both increasing (or decreasing) functions of body size. We cannot yet say whether these are sufficient to account for the many known cases of growth after maturity and not all reasonable models have yet been explored. Factors favouring storage are also reviewed.

Myofascial pain syndrome associated with trigger points: A literature review. (I): Epidemiology, clinical treatment and etiopathogeny

Over the last few decades, advances have been made in the understanding of myofascial pain syndrome epidemiology, clinical characteristics and aetiopathogenesis, but many unknowns remain. An integrated hypothesis has provided a greater understanding of the physiopathology of trigger points, which may allow the development of new diagnostic, and above all, therapeutic methods, as well as the establishment of prevention policies and protocols by the health profession. Nevertheless, randomized studies are needed to provide a better understanding and detection of the different factors involved in the origin of trigger points.

Diabetic macular edema : cases and diagnostics

In the new book series 'ESASO Course Series', the essentials of the courses of the European School for Advanced Studies in Ophthalmology (ESASO) are made available to interested ophthalmologists, optometrists, technicians and residents all over the world. In this volume, the seminars on surgical retina presented by renowned experts during ESASO's activities are collected. Many specialists have contributed their knowledge to make this volume a device to give practical support. The topics range from prevention to state-of-the-art diagnostic techniques and the latest surgical treatment options for many eye conditions such as diabetic retinopathy and rhegmatogenous retinal detachment. This publication provides the ophthalmologist with the main aspects of surgical retina in a simple and practical update.

Leverage and beliefs: Personal experience and risk taking in margin lending

What determines risk-bearing capacity and the amount of leverage in financial markets? Thispaper uses unique micro-data on collateralized lending contracts during a period of financialdistress to address this question. An investor syndicate speculating in English stocks wentbankrupt in 1772. Using hand-collected information from Dutch notarial archives, we examinechanges in lenders' behavior following exposure to potential (but not actual) losses. Before thedistress episode, financiers that lent to the ill-fated syndicate were indistinguishable from therest. Afterwards, they behaved differently: they lent with much higher haircuts. Only lendersexposed to the failed syndicate altered their behavior. The differential change is remarkable sincethe distress was public knowledge, and because none of the lenders suffered actual losses ? allfinanciers were repaid in full. Interest rates were also unaffected; the market balanced solelythrough changes in collateral requirements. Our findings are consistent with a heterogeneousbeliefs-interpretation of leverage. They also suggest that individual experience can modify thelevel of leverage in a market quickly.

Strategy selection: An introduction to the modeling challenge

Modeling the mechanisms that determine how humans and other agents choose among different behavioral and cognitive processes-be they strategies, routines, actions, or operators-represents a paramount theoretical stumbling block across disciplines, ranging from the cognitive and decision sciences to economics, biology, and machine learning. By using the cognitive and decision sciences as a case study, we provide an introduction to what is also known as the strategy selection problem. First, we explain why many researchers assume humans and other animals to come equipped with a repertoire of behavioral and cognitive processes. Second, we expose three descriptive, predictive, and prescriptive challenges that are common to all disciplines which aim to model the choice among these processes. Third, we give an overview of different approaches to strategy selection. These include cost‐benefit, ecological, learning, memory, unified, connectionist, sequential sampling, and maximization approaches. We conclude by pointing to opportunities for future research and by stressing that the selection problem is far from being resolved.

Vegetative and reproductive morphology of Kallymenia patens (Kallymeniaceae, Rhodophyta) in the Mediterranean Sea

Reproductive morphology of the Mediterranean red alga Kallymenia patens is described for the first time, confirming its position in the genus. K. patens is characterized by a non-procarpic female reproductive apparatus, carpogonial branch systems consisting of supporting cells bearing both three-celled carpogonial branches and subsidiary cells that lack a hypogynous cell and carpogonium; fusion cells develop numerous connecting filaments, and tetrasporangia are scattered over the thallus and are probably cruciately divided. Old fertile spathulate specimens of K. patens are morphologically similar to K. spathulata, but they can be distinguished by the length of spathulated proliferations (up to 0.6 cm and 6 cm, respectively), the length of inner cortical cells (up to 70 and 30 μm, respectively), and the gonimoblast location (in proliferations from the perennial part of the blade and over all the thallus surface, respectively)

Osteoid osteoma-like lesions: MDCT features and treatment by radiofrequency ablation : 46

Purpose: To assess the MDCT features of bone lesions that mimic osteoid osteoma (OO-like lesions) and evaluate their treatment by radiofrequency (RF) ablation. Methods and materials: All percutaneous RF ablations performed between May 2002 and June 2009 for a presumed (clinical and MDCT features) diagnosis of OO were retrospectively reviewed. Per-procedural biopsies were always performed and histopathological diagnoses were noted. The following MDCT features of all bone lesions were assessed by two musculoskeletal radiologists in consensus: skeletal distribution and location within the bone, size, central calcification, surrounding osteosclerosis and periosteal reaction. Clinical success was also evaluated. Results: Eighty patients (54 males, 26 females, mean age 24.1 years, range 5-48) underwent RF ablation. The histopathological diagnoses were: 54 non-contributory biopsies, 16 OO, 10 OO-like lesions (5 chronic osteomyelitis, 3 chondroblastoma, 1 eosinophilic granuloma, 1 fibrous dysplasia). The OO-like lesions were significantly greater in size (p = 0.001) and exhibited trends toward medullary location within the bone, moderate surrounding osteosclerosis and less periosteal reaction, compared to OO. Primary clinical success for OO-like lesions was 100% at 1 month, 85.7% at 6 and 12 months, and 66.7% at 24 months. Secondary success was 100%. Conclusion: Greater size, medullary location within the bone, lesser surrounding osteosclerosis and periosteal reaction on MDCT may help differentiate OO-like lesions from OO. OO-like lesions are safely and successfully treated by RF ablation.