997 resultados para Economic forecasts
Resumo:
At risk of poverty indicators based on relative income measures suggest that within the enlarged EU societies located at quite different points on a continuum of affluence have similar levels of poverty. Substantial differences in levels of income between societies do not in themselves invalidate this approach. However, the relative income approach fails to capture the fact that, if countries are grouped in terms of level of GDP, between economic cluster differences in life-style deprivation are sharper at lower income levels. Support for the argument relating to restricted reference groups is found in relation to the contrast between the twelve most affluent EU countries and all others. The limitations of relative income poverty lines have little to do with the process of enlargement as such. Instead the major problem involves the weak association between income and deprivation in the more affluent countries. However, as a consequence of such difficulties, such indicators do not provide entirely meaningful comparisons of levels of disadvantage across economic clusters. The current analysis, rather than supporting the alternative of a focus on absolute income or an EU wide poverty line, suggests that we should take the argument for adopting a multidimensional approach to the measurement of poverty more seriously.
Resumo:
In this paper we address issues relating to vulnerability to economic exclusion and levels of economic exclusion in Europe. We do so by applying latent class models to data from the European Community Household Panel for thirteen countries. This approach allows us to distinguish between vulnerability to economic exclusion and exposure to multiple deprivation at a particular point in time. The results of our analysis confirm that in every country it is possible to distinguish between a vulnerable and a non-vulnerable class. Association between income poverty, life-style deprivation and subjective economic strain is accounted for by allocating individuals to the categories of this latent variable. The size of the vulnerable class varies across countries in line with expectations derived from welfare regime theory. Between class differentiation is weakest in social democratic regimes but otherwise the pattern of differentiation is remarkably similar. The key discriminatory factor is life-style deprivation, followed by income and economic strain. Social class and employment status are powerful predictors of latent class membership in all countries but the strength of these relationships varies across welfare regimes. Individual biography and life events are also related to vulnerability to economic exclusion. However, there is no evidence that they account for any significant part of the socio-economic structuring of vulnerability and no support is found for the hypothesis that social exclusion has come to transcend class boundaries and become a matter of individual biography. However, the extent of socio-economic structuring does vary substantially across welfare regimes. Levels of economic exclusion, in the sense of current exposure to multiple deprivation, also vary systematically by welfare regime and social class. Taking both vulnerability to economic exclusion and levels of exclusion into account suggests that care should be exercised in moving from evidence on the dynamic nature of poverty and economic exclusion to arguments relating to the superiority of selective over universal social policies.
Resumo:
This paper is concerned with the relationship between household income and life-style deprivation, and their combined impact on households' perceptions of economic strain. It takes as a point of departure findings from a number of European countries showing that the relationship between income and deprivation is weaker than widely assumed and that relative income poverty lines may perform poorly in terms of identifying the most deprived households. It proceeds to examine how far these conclusions about income and deprivation can be generalized to the countries included in the first wave of the European Community Household Panel. Results show that five distinct dimensions of deprivation emerge from an overall European analysis and that these are consistent across individual countries. While a good deal of similarity is observed in the income-deprivation relationship, countries differ in the strength of relationship between income and what is termed 'current liferstyle deprivation' with the relationship being generally weakest in the richer countries. The implications of these findings for the use of relative income poverty lines are developed. Extending this analysis to an assessment of how income and deprivation combine to influence perceptions of economic strain, we show that within-nation reference group processes operating in a uniform manner across countries can account for the bulk of the variation in strain. Cross-national differences can be accounted for by corresponding variation in income and deprivation levels.
Resumo:
In this article, using Ireland where debt issues are of particular salience, as a test case, we seek to locate over-indebtedness and the severity of debt problems in the context of the broader economic circumstances of households. In doing so, we first identify an economically vulnerable segment of households and then explore the debt experience of vulnerable and non-vulnerable households. Our analysis reveals a striking contrast between the debt experiences of less than one in five households defined as economically vulnerable and all others. Financial exclusion, relating to access to a bank account and a credit card, was found to increase debt levels. However, such effects were modest. The impact of economic vulnerability seems to be largely a consequence of its relationship to a wide
range of socio-economic attributes and circumstances. The manner in which a potential debt crisis
unfolds will be shaped by the broader socio-economic structuring of life-chances. Any attempt to
respond to such problems by concentrating on financial exclusion or household behaviour or, indeed,
triggering factors without taking the wider social structuring of economic vulnerability is likely to be
both seriously misguided and largely ineffective.
Resumo:
The European Union Statistics of Income and Living Conditions
(EU-SILC) 2005 wave includes a special module on inter-generational
transmission of poverty. In addition to the standard data relating to income
and material deprivation, information relating to parental background and
childhood circumstances was collected for all household members aged over
24 and less than 66 at the end of the income reference period. In principle,
the module provides an unprecedented opportunity to apply a welfare regime
perspective to a comparative European analysis of the relationship between
poverty and social exclusion and parental characteristics and childhood
economic circumstances. In this paper, we seek to exploit such potential. In
pursuing this objective, it is necessary to take into account some of the
limitations of the data. We do by restricting our attention to a set of
countries where data issues seem less extreme. Finally, we compare findings
from one dimensional and multidimensional approaches to poverty and social
exclusion in order to provide an assessment of the extent to which our
analysis of welfare regime variation provides a coherent account of the
intergenerational transmission of disadvantage.
Resumo:
In this paper we evaluate trends in levels of economic vulnerability in Ireland during the period 1994-2001. We also document changes in the consequences of such vulnerability for social exclusion and in the social demographic factors with which it is associated. Over time there was a sharp decline in economic vulnerability. Furthermore, the degree of differentiation between the vulnerable and non-vulnerable classes in relation to both economic exclusion and social exclusion, more broadly conceived, remained relatively constant. Ireland is characterised by levels of socio-economic inequality that place it at the more unequal end of the European spectrum. However, the dramatic reductions in levels of vulnerability across the socio-economic spectrum demonstrate that the fruits of the economic boom have been distributed relatively widely.
Resumo:
In this paper we examine the consequences for social mobility of the recent unprecedented period of economic growth experienced in Ireland and the implications of such developments for current theories of social fluidity. Contrary to suggestions that the "Celtic Tiger" experience has been associated with deepening problem marginalization, we found evidence for a substantial upgrading of the class structure, increased levels of social mobility and increased social fluidity in relation to long-range hierarchical mobility. Such increased openness could not be explained by changes in the mediating role of education. The pattern of change suggests that both the upgrading of the class structure and the recent unprecedented tightness of the labour market have led employers to increasingly apply criteria other than education in a manner that has facilitated increased social fluidity. The Irish case provides further support for the argument for reconsidering the balance that mobility research has struck between social fluidity and absolute mobility and encouraging increased attention to the evolution of firms and jobs. It also suggests that, in circumstances where policies in advanced industrial societies have shown an increasing tendency to diverge, increased social fluidity may come about as a consequence of very different economic and social policies. © 2006 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
Resumo:
In this article we have sought to combine regional and social exclusion perspectives on economic exclusion in the enlarged European Community. Our analysis, based on the European Quality of Life Survey, confirms that while the economically vulnerable, identified through latent class analysis, constitute substantially larger groups in the poorer economic clusters, they are much more sharply differentiated from others in the richer clusters. While the economically vulnerable are also disadvantaged in relation to measures of multidimensional deprivation and social cohesion, between economic clusters differences on these dimensions cannot be accounted for by corresponding variations in levels and intensity of economic vulnerability. In fact, the impact of such vulnerability on social cohesion is greater in the more affluent clusters. Copyright © 2005 SAGE Publications.
Resumo:
This study examined the relationship between children's hair cortisol and socioeconomic status of the family, as measured by parental education and income. Low family socioeconomic status has traditionally been considered a long-term environmental stressor. Measurement of hair cortisol provides an integrated index of cumulative stress exposure across an extended period of time. The present study is the first to examine the relationship between hair cortisol and parental education as well as parental income in a representative sample of preschoolers. Data on hair cortisol, family income, and parental education were collected for a representative sample of 339 children (Mean age=4.6 years; SD=.5 years) from across 23 neighbourhoods of the city of Vancouver, Canada. As maternal education was shown previously to be associated with hair zinc level, hair zinc measurements were included as well in order to explore potential relationships between hair zinc and hair cortisol. The relationship between hair cortisol and parental education was examined using hierarchical regression, with hair zinc, gender, age, and single parenthood included as covariates. Maternal and paternal education both were correlated significantly with hair cortisol (r=-0.18; p=.001). The relationship remained statistically significant even after controlling for all demographic covariates as well as for hair zinc and after taking the neighbourhood-level clustering of the data into account. Parental income, on the other hand, was not related significantly to children's hair cortisol. This study provides evidence that lower maternal and paternal education are associated with higher hair cortisol levels. As hair cortisol provides an integrated index of cortisol exposure over an extended time period, these findings suggest a possibly stable influence of SES on the function of the hypothalamic-pituitary-adrenal (HPA) axis. Cumulative exposure to cortisol during early childhood may be greater in children from low socio-economic backgrounds, possibly through increased exposure to environmental stressors.
Resumo:
Aim: To evaluate the influence of socio-economic factors on visual acuity (VA) at presentation in exudative age- related macular degeneration (AMD). Methods: The medical records of all consecutive patients with newly diagnosed exudative AMD examined at the Ophthalmology Departments of Grampian University Hospitals-NHS Trust, Aberdeen, and Gartnavel General Hospital, Glasgow, between July 2004 and June 2005, were reviewed. Demographics, duration of symptoms, VA in study and fellow eye, exudative AMD characteristics, status of fellow eye and patient home address, used to determine the Scottish Index of Multiple Deprivation (SIMD) score, were recorded. The effect of these parameters on VA at presentation was investigated using general linear modelling. Results: Two-hundred and forty patients (median age 79 years) were included in this study; 44 (18.3%) belonged to the lowest 20% SIMD score (most deprived). Age and location and type of the choroidal neovascular- isation were statistically significantly associated with VA at presentation (p = 0.003, p
Resumo:
This article investigates to what extent the worldwide increase in body mass index (BMI) has been affected by economic globalization and inequality. We used time-series and longitudinal cross-national analysis of 127 countries from 1980 to 2008. Data on mean adult BMI were obtained from the Global Burden of Metabolic Risk Factors of Chronic Diseases Collaborating Group. Globalization was measured using the Swiss Economic Institute (KOF) index of economic globalization. Economic inequality between countries was measured with the mean difference in gross domestic product per capita purchasing power parity in international dollars. Economic inequality within countries was measured using the Gini index from the Standardized World Income Inequality Database. Other covariates including poverty, population size, urban population, openness to trade and foreign direct investment were taken from the World Development Indicators (WDI) database. Time-series regression analyses showed that the global increase in BMI is positively associated with both the index of economic globalization and inequality between countries, after adjustment for covariates. Longitudinal panel data analyses showed that the association between economic globalization and BMI is robust after controlling for all covariates and using different estimators. The association between economic inequality within countries and BMI, however, was significant only among high-income nations. More research is needed to study the pathways between economic globalization and BMI. These findings, however, contribute to explaining how contemporary globalization can be reformed to promote better health and control the global obesity epidemic. © 2013 Copyright Taylor and Francis Group, LLC.