How private is private information? The ability to spot deception in an economic game

We provide experimental evidence on the ability to detect deceit in a buyer-seller game with asymmetric information. Sellers have private information about the buyer's valuation of a good and sometimes have incentives to mislead buyers. We examine if buyers can spot deception in face-to-face encounters. We vary (1) whether or not the buyer can interrogate the seller, and (2) the contextual richness of the situation. We find that the buyers' prediction accuracy is above chance levels, and that interrogation and contextual richness are important factors determining the accuracy. These results show that there are circumstances in which part of the information asymmetry is eliminated by people's ability to spot deception.

Effects of stress on economic decision-making: Evidence from laboratory experiments

The ways in which preferences respond to the varying stress of economic environments is a key question for behavioral economics and public policy. We conducted a laboratory experiment to investigate the effects of stress on financial decision making among individuals aged 50 and older. Using the cold pressor task as a physiological stressor, and a series of intelligence tests as cognitive stressors, we find that stress increases subjective discounting rates, has no effect on the degree of risk-aversion, and substantially lowers the effort individuals make to learn about financial decisions.

Ecological-economic modelling of interactions between wild and commercial bees and pesticide use

The decline in extent of wild pollinators in recent years has been partly associated with changing farm practices and in particular with increase of pesticide use. In this paper we combine ecological modelling with economic analysis of a single farm output under the assumption that both pollination and pest control are essential inputs. We show that the drive to increase farm output can lead to a local decline in the wild bee population. Commercial bees are often considered an alternative to wild pollinators, but we show that their introduction can lead to further decline and finally local extinction of wild bees. The transitions between different outcomes are characterised by threshold behaviour and are potentially difficult to predict and detect in advance. Small changes in economic (input prices) and ecological (wild bees carrying capacity and effect of pesticides on bees) can move the economic-ecological system beyond the extinction threshold. We also show that increasing the pesticide price or decreasing the commercial bee price might lead to reestablishment of wild bees following their local extinction. Thus, we demonstrate the importance of combining ecological modelling with economics to study the provision of ecosystem services and to inform sustainable management of ecosystem service providers.

The Emperor Has New Clothes: Empirical Tests of Mainstream Theories of Economic Growth

Modern macroeconomic theory utilises optimal control techniques to model the maximisation of individual well-being using a lifetime utility function. Agents face choices over current and future consumption (with resultant implied savings decisions) seeking to maximise the present value of current plus future well-being. However, such inter-temporal welfare-maximising assumptions remain empirically untested. In the work presented here we test whether welfare was in (historical) fact maximised in the US between 1870-2000 and find empirical support for the optimising basis of growth theory, but only once a comprehensive view of what constitutes a country’s wealth or capital is taken into account.

Human Capital in Economic Development: From Labour Productivity to Macroeconomic Impact

Micro-econometric evidence reveals high private returns to education, most prominently in low-income countries. However, it is disputed to what extent this translates into a macro-economic impact. This paper projects the increase in human capital from higher education in Malawi and uses a dynamic applied general equilibrium model to estimate the resulting macroeconomics impact. This is contingent upon endogenous adjustments, in particular how labour productivity affects competitiveness and if this in turn stimulates exports. Choice among commonly applied labour market assumptions and trade elasticities results in widely different outcomes. Appraisal of such policies should consider not only the impact on human capital stocks, but also adjustments outside the labour market.

The Delta of Ebro: economic uses and changes in the ecosystems

El Delta del Ebro se halla situado en el Mediterráneo, en NE de la Península Ibérica (sur de Cataluña). Su formación ha sido resultado de la interacción del mar y del Ebro, un río que con sus 910 km de longitud drena una cuenca de unos 85.362 km2. Sus características dependen de los diferentes regímenes climáticos de su extensa cuenca, lo que explica la complejidad de su régimen. A lo largo del periodo estudiado el Delta fue siempre una realidad geológica aunque experimentó importantes cambios en su morfología. En consecuencia, sus recursos naturales siempre pudieron ser explotados, aunque estas actividades se hubieron de adaptar a su cambiante morfología y a sus peculiares condiciones naturales, diferentes de las zonas terrestres más inmediatas.

Heterogeneous dynamics, aggregation and the persistence of economic shocks

It has been recently emphasized that, if individuals have heterogeneous dynamics, estimates of shock persistence based on aggregate data are significatively higher than those derived from its disaggregate counterpart. However, a careful examination of the implications of this statement on the various tools routinely employed to measure persistence is missing in the literature. This paper formally examines this issue. We consider a disaggregate linear model with heterogeneous dynamics and compare the values of several measures of persistence across aggregation levels. Interestingly, we show that the average persistence of aggregate shocks, as measured by the impulse response function (IRF) of the aggregate model or by the average of the individual IRFs, is identical on all horizons. This result remains true even in situations where the units are (short-memory) stationary but the aggregate process is long-memory or even nonstationary. In contrast, other popular persistence measures, such as the sum of the autoregressive coefficients or the largest autoregressive root, tend to be higher the higher the aggregation level. We argue, however, that this should be seen more as an undesirable property of these measures than as evidence of different average persistence across aggregation levels. The results are illustrated in an application using U.S. inflation data.

Antidoping programme and biological monitoring before and during the 2014 FIFA World Cup Brazil.

BACKGROUND: The FIFA has implemented an important antidoping programme for the 2014 FIFA World Cup. AIM: To perform the analyses before and during the World Cup with biological monitoring of blood and urine samples. METHODS: All qualified players from the 32 teams participating in the World Cup were tested out-of-competition. During the World Cup, 2-8 players per match were tested. Over 1000 samples were collected in total and analysed in the WADA accredited Laboratory of Lausanne. RESULTS: The quality of the analyses was at the required level as described in the WADA technical documents. The urinary steroid profiles of the players were stable and consistent with previously published papers on football players. During the competition, amphetamine was detected in a sample collected on a player who had a therapeutic use exemption for attention deficit hyperactivity disorder. The blood passport data showed no significant difference in haemoglobin values between out-of-competition and postmatch samples. CONCLUSIONS: Logistical issues linked to biological samples collection, and the overseas shipment during the World Cup did not impair the quality of the analyses, especially when used as the biological passport of football players.

Epidemiology and control of malaria and other arthropod born diseases

Malaria and other arthropod born diseases remain a serious public health problem affecting the lives and health of certain social groups when the two basic strategies to control fail due to : (1) the lack of effective chemoprophylaxis/chemotherapy or the rapid development of drug resistance of the infectious agents and (2) the ineffectiveness of pesticides or the arthropod vectors develop resistance to them. These situations enhances the need for the design and implementation of other alternatives for sustainable health programmes. The application of the epidemiological methods is essential not only for analyzing the relevant data for the understanding of the biological characteristics of the infectious agents, their reservoirs and vectors and the methods for their control, but also for the assessment of the human behaviour, the environmental, social and economic factors involved in disease transmission and the capacity of the health systems to implement interventions for both changes in human behaviour and environmental management to purpose guaranteed prevention and control of malaria and other arthropod born diseases with efficiency, efficacy and equity. This paper discuss the evolution of the malaria arthropod diseases programmes in the American Region and the perspectives for their integration into health promotion programs and emphasis is made in the need to establish solid basis in the decision-making process for the selection of intervention strategies to remove the risk factors determining the probability to get sick or die from ABDs. The implications of the general planning and the polices to be adopted in an area should be analyzed in the light of programme feasibility at the local level, in the multisectoral context specific social groups and taking in consideration the principles of stratification and equity

Analysing the innovation process in the EU Integrated Programme, ISAFRUIT

ISAFRUIT is an integrated European Union Project focussed on increasing fruit consumption as a means to improve human health, through evaluating the fruit chain and addressing bottlenecks therein.The innovations which are being developed throughout the ISAFRUIT Project have been analysed to determine both the success factors and the obstacles in reaching the commercialisation stage. Only 9.58% of the deliverables planned within the Project were focussed on developing technological innovations.There is evidence, however, of successes in the development of new innovations arising from the ISAFRUIT Project, with several other potential innovations in the pipeline. Of the technologies identified, 67% are still at the “invention stage”; that is, the stage prior to bridging the so-called “valley of death”, the stage between an invention and an innovation. Those which are considered to have moved over the “valley of death” either had industry partners included in the Project, or had consulted with industry to ensure that the technology was relevant, or met a recognised industry need. Many of the technologies which made less progress did not have the same interactions with industry. A number of other issues were identified which prevented further progress towards innovation. The need for scientists to publish scientific papers, both for their career pathways and to increase their chances of future funding, was identified as one issue, although the filing of patents is now becoming more accepted and recognised. The patenting system is considered complex by many scientists and is not well-understood. Finally, agreements between partners on the sharing of intellectual property rights can cause a delay in the innovation process.

Venezuelan economic laboratory. The Case of the altruistic economy of Felipe Pérez Martí

Felipe Pérez Martí, who was the Venezuelan Minister of Planning and Development in the government of Hugo Chávez, proposes an economic model that he calls the altruistic economy or fourth way, which leads cooperative game theory to its logical extremes postulating a pure communism. Here we sustain that, first, it is impossible in the model of Pérez Martí to marginally allocate non-primary goods to those most in need or who most value them, facing a problem of defective economic calculation, and second, in order to achieve equality, he would have to replace his atomic local planners by a central planner, who would be unable to overcome the problem of imperfect and and incomplete information.

A mixed splicing procedure for economic time series

This note develops a flexible methodology for splicing economic time series that avoids the extreme assumptions implicit in the procedures most commonly used in the literature. It allows the user to split the required correction to the older of the series being linked between its levels and growth rates on the basis what he knows or conjectures about the persistence of the factors that account for the discrepancy between the two series that emerges at their linking point. The time profile of the correction is derived from the assumption that the error in the older series reflects the inadequate coverage of emerging sectors or activities that grow faster than the aggregate.

A programme for computer aided identification of Phlebotomine sandflies of the Americas (CIPA): presentation and check-list of American species

The CIPA programme is a collaborative project including two entomologists from France and seven South and Central America countries. Its objective is the development of an expert system for computer aided identification of phlebotomine sandflies from the Americas. It also includes the formation of data bases for bibliographic, taxonomic and biogeographic data. Participant consensus on taxonomic prerequisites, standardization in bibliographic data collections and selection of descriptive variables for the final programme has been established through continous communication among participants and annual meetings. The adopted check-list of American sandflies presented here includes 386 specific taxa, ordered into genera and 28 sub-genera or species groups.

A simple and economic slide micro-immunoenzymatic (Micro-SIA) test for epidemiological studies of toxoplasmosis

A slide micro-immunoenzymatic assay (micro-SIA) to detectantibodies to non-particulate Toxoplasma gondii antigens is described. This assay allows the diagnosis of toxoplasmosis infection in about 1 hr. Twenty-four determinations can be performed per slide. Five hundred ng of antigen and 5 or 10 µl drop of each reactive are necessary per well. The clear contrast of colours obtained for negative and positive sera after the test is finished, allows direct discrimination of the results. However, it is possible to quantify the results of the reaction using a minireader. Sera dilution cutoff value, determined as themost frequent titre for the general population, is 1:100. The toxoplasma micro-SIA correlates well with indirect immunofluorescence (IIF), its sensitivity is atleast three times as much as IIF. The test has an intra and inter assay variation coefficient of 5.46 per cent and of 6.24 per cent respectively. Sera obtained at random from argentinian people were analyzed and a 56 per cent of infection was found. The main features of the Toxoplasma micro-SIA are its simplicity, sensitivity, reproducibility, and the virtual absence of background making it very suitable for screening tests.