Learning about Risk and Return: A Simple Model of Bubbles and Crashes

This paper demonstrates that an asset pricing model with least-squares learning can lead to bubbles and crashes as endogenous responses to the fundamentals driving asset prices. When agents are risk-averse they need to make forecasts of the conditional variance of a stock’s return. Recursive updating of both the conditional variance and the expected return implies several mechanisms through which learning impacts stock prices. Extended periods of excess volatility, bubbles and crashes arise with a frequency that depends on the extent to which past data is discounted. A central role is played by changes over time in agents’ estimates of risk.

Développement d'indicateurs pour le contrat de prestations 2008 entre le Cipret et le Département de l'économie et de la santé (DES) : élaboration d'une théorie d'action du Cipret Genève selon le Modèle de catégorisation des résultats de Promotion Santé Suisse

[Table des matières] 1. Introduction. 2. Méthode. 3. Théorie d'action et plan de monitorage des résultats des activités du Cipret (Centre d'information et de prévention du tabagisme) : priorités pour l'année 2008: Axe 1: Informer sur les conséquences de la consommation de tabac et sur la promotion de la santé. Axe 2: Contribuer à la cohérence de la politique de santé publique en matière de tabac. Axe 3: Diminuer le nombre de nouveaux fumeurs. Axe 4: Aider au sevrage du tabac. Annexes.

Consequences of smoking for body weight, body fat distribution, and insulin resistance

Our aim was to critically evaluate the relations among smoking, body weight, body fat distribution, and insulin resistance as reported in the literature. In the short term, nicotine increases energy expenditure and could reduce appetite, which may explain why smokers tend to have lower body weight than do nonsmokers and why smoking cessation is frequently followed by weight gain. In contrast, heavy smokers tend to have greater body weight than do light smokers or nonsmokers, which likely reflects a clustering of risky behaviors (eg, low degree of physical activity, poor diet, and smoking) that is conducive to weight gain. Other factors, such as weight cycling, could also be involved. In addition, smoking increases insulin resistance and is associated with central fat accumulation. As a result, smoking increases the risk of metabolic syndrome and diabetes, and these factors increase risk of cardiovascular disease. In the context of the worldwide obesity epidemic and a high prevalence of smoking, the greater risk of (central) obesity and insulin resistance among smokers is a matter of major concern

Chronic beryllium disease as a re-emerging occupational disorder possibly misdiagnosed as sarcoidosis : a Swiss study project

Background: Beryllium (Be) is increasingly used worldwide for numerous industrial applications. Occupational exposure to Be may lead to Be sensitization (BeS), a CD4-mediated immune response. BeS may progress to chronic beryllium disease (CBD), a granulomatous lung disorder closely resembling sarcoidosis. The recognition of CBD requires detection of Be exposure at occupational history, and detection of BeS on blood or BAL lymphocytes. Since methods for CBD detection are not routinely available in Switzerland, we hypothesized that CBD cases are not recognized but misdiagnosis as sarcoidosis. Objective: To present an ongoing Swiss study screening patients with sarcoidosis in search of Be exposure, BeS, and CBD. Methods: Both a prospective and a retrospective cohort are being studied. In the prospective cohort, the main steps include: 1) recruitment of 100 consecutive patients with newly diagnosed pulmonary sarcoidosis at 2 centers (Lausanne, Bern). 2) screening for possible occupational Be exposure by self-administered patient questionnaire. 3) standardized detailed occupational interview and clinical visit by occupational health specialist. If step 3 is positive, then 4) blood and BAL sampling for detection of BeS by specifically developed Elispot assay and CFSE flow cytometry, with subsequent comparison to the classical Be lymphocyte proliferation test. If step 4 is positive, then 5) review of medical records and diagnostic revision from sarcoidosis to CBD. 6) appropriate measures for exposure cessation and case reporting to SUVA as occupational disease. The retrospective cohort will include 400 patients with previously diagnosed pulmonary sarcoidosis, either treated or untreated, recruited through the SIOLD Registries. Steps 2 to 5 will be peformed as above, except for a) end of study after step 2 if screening questionnaire does not reveal Be exposure, and b) step 4 done on blood sample only (BAL not needed). Current status: Self-administered screening questionnaire and tools for standardized occupational interview have been developed. BeS testing has been implemented and undergoes validation. Inclusions in the prospective phase have started at both study sites. The retrospective phase is in preparation. Conclusion: The current study status allows to conclude to technical feasibility of the project. The prospective phase if this study is funded by the SUVA. The SIOLD Registries are supported by the Swiss Pulmonary League.

Reversible behavioural autistic-like regression: A manifestation of a special (new?) epileptic syndrome in a 28-month-old child. A 2-year longitudinal study .

A 28-month-old boy was referred for acute onset of abnormal head movements. History revealed an insidious progressive regression in behaviour and communication over several months. Head and shoulder 'spasms' with alteration of consciousness and on one occasion ictal laughter were seen. The electroencephalograph (EEG) showed repeated bursts of brief generalized polyspikes and spike-wave during the 'spasms', followed by flattening, a special pattern which never recurred after treatment. Review of family videos showed a single 'minor' identical seizure 6 months previously. Magnetic resonance imaging was normal. Clonazepam brought immediate cessation of seizures, normalization of the EEG and a parallel spectacular improvement in communication, mood and language. Follow-up over the next 10 months showed a new regression unaccompained by recognized seizures, although numerous seizures were discovered during the videotaped neuropsychological examination, when stereotyped subtle brief paroxysmal changes in posture and behaviour could be studied in slow motion and compared with the 'prototypical' initial ones. The EEG showed predominant rare left-sided fronto-temporal discharges. Clonazepam was changed to carbamazepin with marked improvement in behaviour, language and cognition which has been sustained up to the last control at 51 months. Videotaped home observations allowed the documentation of striking qualitative and quantitative variations in social interaction and play of autistic type in relation to the epileptic activity. We conclude that this child has a special characteristic epileptic syndrome with subtle motor and vegetative symptomatology associated with an insidious catastrophic 'autistic-like' regression which could be overlooked. The methods used to document such fluctuating epileptic behavioural manifestations are discussed.

Scheduled Service Versus Personal Transportation: The Role of Distance

This paper presents a theoretical and empirical analysis of the relationship be- tween frequency of scheduled transportation services and their substitutability with personal transportation (using distance as a proxy). We study the interaction between a monopoly firm providing a high-speed scheduled service and private transportation (i.e., car). Interestingly, the carrier chooses to increase the frequency of service on longer routes when competing with personal transportation because by providing higher frequency (at extra cost) it can also charge higher fares which can boost its profits. However, in line with the results of earlier studies, frequency decreases for longer flights when driving is not a viable option. An empirical application of our analysis to the European airline industry confirms the predictions of our theoretical model. Keywords: short-haul routes; long-haul routes; flight frequency; distance JEL Classification Numbers: L13; L2; L93

The Spillover Effects of Monitoring: A Field Experiment.

We provide field experimental evidence of the effects of monitoring in a context where productivity is multi-dimensional and only one dimension is monitored and incentivised. We hire students to do a job for us. The job consists of identifying euro coins. We study the effects of monitoring and penalising mistakes on work quality, and evaluate spillovers on non- incentivised dimensions of productivity (punctuality and theft). We .nd that monitoring improves work quality only if incentives are large, but reduces punctuality substantially irrespectively of the size of incentives. Monitoring does not affect theft, with ten per cent of participants stealing overall. Our setting also allows us to disentangle between possible theoretical mechanisms driving the adverse effects of monitoring. Our .ndings are supportive of a reciprocity mechanism, whereby workers retaliate for being distrusted.

Aspects génétiques de la consommation de tabac et prise en charge clinique [Genetic aspects of smoking and impact on clinical care]

Tobacco smoking is a major public health issue and a better understanding of tobacco addiction represents an important challenge. Many factors are involved in tobacco addiction, including genetic factors. Taking them into account in smoking cessation programs would allow to better adapt these programs to individual characteristics and improve their rate of success. Given enzymatic induction by tobacco smoke, smoking cessation can nevertheless have important consequences on the metabolism of some drugs, that have to be taken into consideration. Here we present different clinical and genetic aspects of smoking and of smoking cessation. A dose adjustment of drugs influenced by tobacco smoke is proposed when quitting smoking.

Hyperesthésie et apaisement: aspects historiques et psychologiques

L'auteur fait une synthèse des contributions, actuelles ou passées, décrivant la tendance chez un individu à exacerber ses sensations (hyperesthésie), agréables ou douloureuses, y compris les éprouvés émotionnels. Il met l'accent sur l'effet antagoniste ou inhibiteur que les sensations peuvent avoir les unes sur les autres. Puisque l'angoisse implique, elle aussi, une dimension sensorielle, il insiste sur le but paradoxal d'apaisement et donc défensif qui peut motiver la recherche de sensations, en se référant à la notion de « procédé autocalmant » développée par l'école psychosomatique de Paris.¦Ce travail se divise en deux parties consacrées respectivement à l'enfant et à l'adulte, elles-mêmes déclinées sur deux versants, l'un « normal » et l'autre pathologique. Il y est question :¦- des comportements de l'enfant susceptibles d'être produits pour les sensations apaisantes qu'ils procurent : succion, ingestion d'aliments, balancement, masturbation, etc.¦- des auto-agressions dans certains troubles du développement de l'enfant et de l'adolescent¦- de l'hypersensibilité ou émotivité dans les typologies du tempérament ou du caractère proposées dans l'histoire; de la passion également, envisagée comme un embrasement lui aussi potentiellement défensif¦- de deux parmi les troubles de l'adulte qui ont le plus été décrits en termes d'hyperesthésie, à savoir l'hystérie et la manie.¦Il s'agit d'un travail théorique, qui intègre des aspects historiques, et qui peut servir de base à des explorations cliniques ou des recherches plus spécifiques.¦The author presents a summary of past and recent publications describing the disposition in the individual to exacerbate sensations (hyperesthesia), whether pleasurable or painful, including emotional experiences. He emphasizes the possible opposing or inhibiting action these sensations can have between them.¦As anxiety also implies a sensory dimension, the author underlines the paradoxically alleviating, and hence defensive purpose driving the pursuit of sensations, by reference to the notion of self-soothing procedures (procédés auto-calmants), conceptualized by the Paris Psychosomatic School.¦This work is divided into two parts focusing on childhood and adulthood respectively, each in its turn concentrating on both the « normal » and pathological aspects. Topics covered include:¦- behaviours that children may engage in for the soothing effects they produce ; sucking, consumption of food, rocking, masturbation, etc.¦- self-harm in some cases of developmental disorders in children and adolescents¦- hypersensibility and emotivity as described in historical temperament and character types ; passion, also regarded as another defensive excitement.¦- two of the most commonly described disorders of hyperesthesia in adults, namely hysteria and mania.¦This thesis constitutes a research of a theoretical nature. It integrates historical aspects, which can be used as a basis for clinical exploration or further more specific research.

Simulador de conducció enfocat a la investigació

El desenvolupament de sistemes d’assistència a la conducció (ADAS) és, avui dia, una de les àrees de recerca de més interès pel Centre de Visió per Computador. A partir de la informació adquirida per sensors instal·lats en un vehicle, els ADAS assisteixen al conductor per tal d’evitar situacions de perill. La validació d’aquests sistemes però, requereix de l’obtenció "manual" de les dades que defineixen l’entorn de conducció de forma precisa: una tasca costosa i subjecta a l’error humà. Per tal de resoldre aquest problema, en aquest projecte s’ha implementat IOCS, un simulador de conducció creat a partir d’un de robots, capaç de crear entorns realistes de conducció i d’obtenir, simultàniament, les dades sobre l’entorn inferides per un ADAS i les que el descriuen objectivament. Aquesta funcionalitat facilita extremadament el procés de validació actual dels sistemes d’assistència a la conducció.

Development of an immunoenzymatic assay using a monoclonal antibody against a 50-kDa catabolite from the P126 Plasmodium falciparum protein to the diagnosis of malaria infection

The WHO criterion of defering any donation of blood by a confirmed case of malaria for three years after cessation of therapy can not be applied in areas where malaria in endemic. For this reason we developed an immunoenzymatic assay for the detection of plasmodial antigens for blood screening in malararial endemic areas. So, we tested sera from 191 individuals. Among patients with active disease 100% of the cases of Plasmodium falciparum or mixed infections and 91.7% of those with P. vivax were positive for the presence of plasmodial antigens. The lower parasitaemia detected was 0.0003% for P. vivax malária. When the frequency of positive circulating malarial antigens was evaluated among asymptomatic and symptomatic individuals with negative TBS, positive results were found in respectively 38.7% and 17.7% of the individuals studied in the 30 days after confirmed malaria attack. Data provide by these assays have shown that ELISA seemed to be more sensitive than parasitological examination for malaria diagnosis. This test by virtue of its high sensivity and the facilities in processing a large number of specimens, can prove to be useful in endemic areas for the recognition of asymptomatic malaria and screening of blood donors.

Effect of somatostatin on duodenal glucose absorption in man.

OBJECTIVE: The hyperglycemic hyperinsulinemic clamp technique using intraduodenally infused glucose is an attractive tool for studying postprandial glucose metabolism under strictly controlled conditions. Because it requires the use of somatostatin (SST), we examined, in this study, the effect of SST on intestinal glucose absorption. CONTEXT: Twenty-six normal volunteers were given a constant 3-h intraduodenal infusion of glucose (6 mg.kg(-1).min(-1)) labeled with [2-(3)H]glucose for glucose absorption measurement. During glucose infusion, 19 subjects received iv SST at doses of 10-100 ng.kg(-1).min(-1) plus insulin and glucagon, and seven subjects were studied under control conditions. In the controls, glucose was absorbed at a rate that, after a 20-min lag period, equaled the infusion rate. RESULTS: With all the doses of SST tested, absorption was considerably delayed but equaled the rate of infusion after 3 h. At that time, only 5 +/- 2% of the total amount of infused glucose was unabsorbed in the control subjects vs. 36 +/- 2% (P < 0.001) in the SST-infused subjects. In the latter, the intraluminal residue was almost totally absorbed within 40 min of the cessation of SST infusion. At the lowest dose of SST tested (10 ng.kg(-1).min(-1)), suppression of insulin secretion was incomplete. CONCLUSION: These properties of SST hamper the use of intraduodenal hyperglycemic hyperinsulinemic clamps as a tool for exploring postprandial glucose metabolism.

Prevenire l'aumento di peso dopo avere smesso di fumare: nessuna soluzione miracolosa: revisione Cochrane per il medico di famiglia.

Cet article présente les résultats de la revue systématique: Parsons AC, Shraim M, Inglis J, Aveyard P, Hajek P. Interventions for preventing weight gain after smoking cessation. Cochrane Database Syst Rev. 2009 Jan 21;(1):CD006219. DOI:10.1002/14651858.CD006219.pub2. PMID:19160269. Update in Cochrane Database Syst Rev. 2012;1:CD006219.