A Comparison of Bayesian and Sampling Theory Inferences in a Probit Model

HE PROBIT MODEL IS A POPULAR DEVICE for explaining binary choice decisions in econometrics. It has been used to describe choices such as labor force participation, travel mode, home ownership, and type of education. These and many more examples can be found in papers by Amemiya (1981) and Maddala (1983). Given the contribution of economics towards explaining such choices, and given the nature of data that are collected, prior information on the relationship between a choice probability and several explanatory variables frequently exists. Bayesian inference is a convenient vehicle for including such prior information. Given the increasing popularity of Bayesian inference it is useful to ask whether inferences from a probit model are sensitive to a choice between Bayesian and sampling theory techniques. Of interest is the sensitivity of inference on coefficients, probabilities, and elasticities. We consider these issues in a model designed to explain choice between fixed and variable interest rate mortgages. Two Bayesian priors are employed: a uniform prior on the coefficients, designed to be noninformative for the coefficients, and an inequality restricted prior on the signs of the coefficients. We often know, a priori, whether increasing the value of a particular explanatory variable will have a positive or negative effect on a choice probability. This knowledge can be captured by using a prior probability density function (pdf) that is truncated to be positive or negative. Thus, three sets of results are compared:those from maximum likelihood (ML) estimation, those from Bayesian estimation with an unrestricted uniform prior on the coefficients, and those from Bayesian estimation with a uniform prior truncated to accommodate inequality restrictions on the coefficients.

Behavior: A Relevant Tool for Brain-immune System Interaction Studies

Neuroimmunomodulation describes the field focused on understanding the mechanisms by which the central nervous system interacts with the immune system, potentially leading to changes in animal behavior. Nonetheless, not many articles dealing with neuroimmunomodulation employ behavior as an analytical endpoint. Even fewer papers deal with social status as a possible modifier of neuroimmune phenomena. In the described sets of experiments, we tackle both, using a paradigm of social dominance and subordination. We first review data on the effects of different ranks within a stable hierarchical relationship. Submissive mice in this condition display more anxiety-like behaviors, have decreased innate immunity, and show a decreased resistance to implantation and development of melanoma metastases in their lungs. This suggests that even in a stable, social, hierarchical rank, submissive animals may be subjected to higher levels of stress, with putative biological relevance to host susceptibility to disease. Second, we review data on how dominant and submissive mice respond differentially to lipopolysaccharide (LPS), employing a motivational perspective to sickness behavior. Dominant animals display decreased number and frequency in several aspects of behavior, particularly agonistic social interaction, that is, directed toward the submissive cage mate. This was not observed in submissive mice that maintained the required behavior expected by its dominant mate. Expression of sickness behavior relies on motivational reorganization of priorities, which are different along different social ranks, leading to diverse outcomes. We suggest that in vitro assessment of neuroimmune phenomena can only be understood based on the behavioral context in which they occur.

Development and validation of nested-PCR for the diagnosis of clinical and subclinical infectious laryngotracheitis

A standardised nested-PCR method that amplifies a region of the glycoprotein E gene of avian infectious laryngotracheitis virus (ILTV) has been developed for the diagnosis of infection by Gallid herpesvirus 1. The two sets of primers employed produced the expected ampIification products of 524bp(externa I primers) and 219bp (internal primers) in the presence of ILTV DNA, whereas no Such amplicons were obtained with other avian respiratory pathogens or with DNA extracted from the cells of uninfected chickens. The identity of the 219bp amplified product was con firmed by DNA sequencing. The standardised nested-PCR method detected ILTV DNA from trachea, lung, conjunctiva and trigeminal ganglia samples from flocks of birds with and without clinical signs. and showed hi.-h sensitivity (95.4%) and specificity (93.1%) when compared with the reference test involving virus isolation in specific-pathogen-free chicken embryos. The standardised nested-PCR method described may be used to detect clinical and latent ILTV infections, and will be of significant value for both diagnostic and epidemiological Studies. (c) 2008 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

The Effect of Different Fluoride Concentrations and pH of Dentifrices on Plaque and Nail Fluoride Levels in Young Children

To evaluate the influence of dentifrice pH and fluoride (F) concentration on F uptake by plaque and nails, two sets of 5-to 6-year-old children were randomly allocated into four groups, according to the type of dentifrice they had been using for 1 year: (1) experimental liquid dentifrice (ELD), 1,100 ppm F, pH 7.0; (2) ELD, 1,100 ppm F, pH 4.5; (3) ELD, 550 ppm F, pH 4.5, and (4) commercial toothpaste, 1,100 ppm F, pH 7.0. In one set of children, nails were clipped. In the second, plaque samples were collected 1 h after the last use of dentifrice. F concentration in plaque and nails was analyzed. Plaque F concentration was significantly lower in group 4 than in groups 1-3. Nail F concentration was significantly higher in group 4, and significantly lower in group 3, than in group 1 or 2. Plaque F uptake was influenced significantly by dentifrice consistency and nonsignificantly by pH and F concentration. Reduction of dentifrice pH did not affect nail F concentration. Copyright (C) 2009 S. Karger AG, Basel

Exact solution for the Bariev model with boundary fields

The Bariev model with open boundary conditions is introduced and analysed in detail in the framework of the Quantum Inverse Scattering Method. Two classes of independent boundary reflecting K-matrices leading to four different types of boundary fields are obtained by solving the reflection equations. The models are exactly solved by means of the algebraic nested Bethe ansatz method and the four sets or Bethe ansatz equations as well as their corresponding energy expressions are derived. (C) 2001 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved.

Differential inclusions and robust control theory

Uncontrolled systems (x) over dot is an element of Ax, where A is a non-empty compact set of matrices, and controlled systems (x) over dot is an element of Ax + Bu are considered. Higher-order systems 0 is an element of Px - Du, where and are sets of differential polynomials, are also studied. It is shown that, under natural conditions commonly occurring in robust control theory, with some mild additional restrictions, asymptotic stability of differential inclusions is guaranteed. The main results are variants of small-gain theorems and the principal technique used is the Krasnosel'skii-Pokrovskii principle of absence of bounded solutions.

Stability of nonlinear difference inclusions

The stability of difference inclusions x(k+1) is an element of F(x(k)) is studied, where F(x) = {F(x, gimel) : is an element of Lambda} and the selections F(., gimel) : E -->E assume values in a Banach space E, partially ordered by a cone K. It is assumed that the operators F(.,gimel) are heterotone or pseudoconcave. The main results concern asymptotically stable absorbing sets, and include the case of a single equilibrium point. The results are applied to a number of practical problems.

Human twinning is not linked to the region of chromosome 4 syntenic with the sheep twinning gene FecB

The tendency to dizygotic (DZ) twinning is inherited in both humans and sheep, and a fecundity gene in sheep (FecB) maps to sheep chromosome 6, syntenic with human 4q21-25. Our aim was to see whether a gene predisposing to human DZ twinning mapped to this region. DNA was collected from 169 pairs and 17 sets of 3 sisters (trios) from Australia and New Zealand who had each had spontaneous DZ twins, mostly before the age of 35, and from a replication sample of 111 families (92 affected sister pairs) from The Netherlands. Exclusion mapping was carried out after typing 26 markers on chromosome 4, of which 8 spanned the region Likely to contain the human homologue of the sheep FecB gene. We used nonparametric affected sib pair methods for linkage analysis [ASPEX 2.2, Hinds and Risch, 1999]. Complete exclusion of linkage (lod < -2) of a gene conferring a relative risk for sibs as low as 1.5 ((s) > 1.5) was obtained for all but the p terminus region on chromosome 4. Exclusion in the syntenic region was stronger, down to lambda (s) = 1.3. We concluded that if there is a gene influencing DZ twinning on chromosome 4, its effect must be minor. (C) 2001 Wiley-Liss, Inc.

Moderating effect of ear preference on personality in the prediction of sales performance

This study examined the relationship between ear preference, personality, and performance ratings on 203 telesales staff. Social desirability scores were a significant predictor of two relatively independent sets of supervisor ratings (actual performance and developmental potential) in interaction with ear preference. It was found that the social desirability scale was a significant positive predictor for staff preferring a right ear headset, but a negative predictor for staff preferring a left ear headset. These results were interpreted in terms of different strategies used to achieve successful sales.

A formal representation of assumptions in process modelling

In this work, we present a systematic approach to the representation of modelling assumptions. Modelling assumptions form the fundamental basis for the mathematical description of a process system. These assumptions can be translated into either additional mathematical relationships or constraints between model variables, equations, balance volumes or parameters. In order to analyse the effect of modelling assumptions in a formal, rigorous way, a syntax of modelling assumptions has been defined. The smallest indivisible syntactical element, the so called assumption atom has been identified as a triplet. With this syntax a modelling assumption can be described as an elementary assumption, i.e. an assumption consisting of only an assumption atom or a composite assumption consisting of a conjunction of elementary assumptions. The above syntax of modelling assumptions enables us to represent modelling assumptions as transformations acting on the set of model equations. The notion of syntactical correctness and semantical consistency of sets of modelling assumptions is defined and necessary conditions for checking them are given. These transformations can be used in several ways and their implications can be analysed by formal methods. The modelling assumptions define model hierarchies. That is, a series of model families each belonging to a particular equivalence class. These model equivalence classes can be related to primal assumptions regarding the definition of mass, energy and momentum balance volumes and to secondary and tiertinary assumptions regarding the presence or absence and the form of mechanisms within the system. Within equivalence classes, there are many model members, these being related to algebraic model transformations for the particular model. We show how these model hierarchies are driven by the underlying assumption structure and indicate some implications on system dynamics and complexity issues. (C) 2001 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved.

Model-based procedure for scale-up of wet, overflow ball mills - Part III: Validation and discussion

A new ball mill scale-up procedure is developed. This procedure has been validated using seven sets of Ml-scale ball mil data. The largest ball mills in these data have diameters (inside liners) of 6.58m. The procedure can predict the 80% passing size of the circuit product to within +/-6% of the measured value, with a precision of +/-11% (one standard deviation); the re-circulating load to within +/-33% of the mass-balanced value (this error margin is within the uncertainty associated with the determination of the re-circulating load); and the mill power to within +/-5% of the measured value. This procedure is applicable for the design of ball mills which are preceded by autogenous (AG) mills, semi-autogenous (SAG) mills, crushers and flotation circuits. The new procedure is more precise and more accurate than Bond's method for ball mill scale-up. This procedure contains no efficiency correction which relates to the mill diameter. This suggests that, within the range of mill diameter studied, milling efficiency does not vary with mill diameter. This is in contrast with Bond's equation-Bond claimed that milling efficiency increases with mill diameter. (C) 2001 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved.

Fitting mixtures of Kent distributions to aid in joint set identification

When examining a rock mass, joint sets and their orientations can play a significant role with regard to how the rock mass will behave. To identify joint sets present in the rock mass, the orientation of individual fracture planer can be measured on exposed rock faces and the resulting data can be examined for heterogeneity. In this article, the expectation-maximization algorithm is used to lit mixtures of Kent component distributions to the fracture data to aid in the identification of joint sets. An additional uniform component is also included in the model to accommodate the noise present in the data.

X-ray scattering studies of mixed langmuir monolayers and Langmuir-Blodgett films of a noncentrosymmetric porphyrin with cadmium arachidate

The structures of mixed Langmuir (floating) monolayers and Langmuir-Blodgett (LB) films of a phenanthroline-porphyrin with cadmium arachidate (PhenPor + CdAr) have been investigated by synchrotron X-ray grazing incidence diffraction (GIXD) and specular X-ray reflectivity (SXR). GIXD measurements of the floating monolayers showed only one peak, arising from the CdAr domains in the films, at a scattering angle of 21.5 degrees. This is consistent with a hexagonal structure (alpha = 4.77 Angstrom). The correlation length in these domains is 250 Angstrom. GMD measurements of the LB films, however, show two sets of diffraction features: one arises from CdAr domains with a rectangular in-plane structure (alpha = 7.44 Angstrom and b = 4.90 Angstrom) and a correlation length of 85 Angstrom; the other is from porphyrin domains with an oblique in-plane structure (alpha (p) 15.2 Angstrom, b(p) = 8.86 Angstrom, and gamma (p) = 80 degrees) and a correlation length of 105 Angstrom. These dimensions are consistent with the surface pressure-area isotherm measurements and indicate that the two components are immiscible. The thickness of the bilayer is 57 Angstrom, and there is no correlation between the bilayers. Introduction of a trigger compound does not alter the structure of the films but slightly increases the bilayer thickness. The SXR measurements of the floating monolayers also support the suggested immiscibility of the two components in the films.

A methodology for analysis of sugarcane productivity trends - I. Analysis across districts

Historically, few articles have addressed the use of district level mill production data for analysing the effect of varietal change on sugarcane productivity trends. This appears to be due to lack of compiled district data sets and appropriate methods by which to analyse these data. Recently, varietal data on tonnes of sugarcane per hectare (TCH), sugar content (CCS), and their product, tonnes of sugar content per hectare (TSH) on a district basis, have been compiled. This study was conducted to develop a methodology for regular analysis of such data from mill districts to assess productivity trends over time, accounting for variety and variety x environment interaction effects for 3 mill districts (Mulgrave, Babinda, and Tully) from 1958 to 1995. Restricted maximum likelihood methodology was used to analyse the district level data and best linear unbiased predictors for random effects, and best linear unbiased estimates for fixed effects were computed in a mixed model analysis. In the combined analysis over districts, Q124 was the top ranking variety for TCH, and Q120 was top ranking for both CCS and TSH. Overall production for TCH increased over the 38-year period investigated. Some of this increase can be attributed to varietal improvement, although the predictors for TCH have shown little progress since the introduction of Q99 in 1976. Although smaller gains have been made in varietal improvement for CCS, overall production for CCS decreased over the 38 years due to non-varietal factors. Varietal improvement in TSH appears to have peaked in the mid-1980s. Overall production for TSH remained stable over time due to the varietal increase in TCH and the non-varietal decrease in CCS.

Adaptation to chronic eccentric exercise in humans: the influence of contraction velocity

We compared changes in muscle fibre composition and muscle strength indices following a 10 week isokinetic resistance training programme consisting of fast (3.14 rad(.)s(-1)) or slow (0.52 rad(.)s(-1)) velocity eccentric muscle contractions. A group of 20 non-resistance trained subjects were assigned to a FAST (n = 7), SLOW (n = 6) or non-training CONTROL (n = 7) group. A unilateral training protocol targeted the elbow flexor muscle group and consisted of 24 maximal eccentric isokinetic contractions (four sets of six repetitions) performed three times a week for 10 weeks. Muscle biopsy samples were obtained from the belly of the biceps brachii. Isometric torque and concentric and eccentric torque at 0.52 and 3.14 rad(.)s(-1) were examined at 0, 5 and 10 weeks. After 10 weeks, the FAST group demonstrated significant [mean (SEM)] increases in eccentric [29.6 (6.4)%] and concentric torque [27.4 (7.3) %] at 3.14 rad(.)s(-1), isometric torque [21.3 (4.3)%] and eccentric torque [25.2 (7.2) %] at 0.52 rad(.)s(-1). The percentage of type I fibres in the FAST group decreased from [53.8 (6.6)% to 39.1 (4.4)%] while type lib fibre percentage increased from [5.8 (1.9)% to 12.9 (3.3)%; P < 0.05]. In contrast. the SLOW group did not experience significant changes in muscle fibre type or muscle torque. We conclude that neuromuscular adaptations to eccentric training stimuli may be influenced by differences in the ability to cope with chronic exposure to relatively fast and slow eccentric contraction velocities. Possible mechanisms include greater cumulative damage to contractile tissues or stress induced by slow eccentric muscle contractions.