Oceanic controls on the primary production of the northwest European continental shelf: model experiments under recent past conditions and a potential future scenario

In this paper we clearly demonstrate that changes in oceanic nutrients are a first order factor in determining changes in the primary production of the northwest European continental shelf on time scales of 5–10 yr. We present a series of coupled hydrodynamic ecosystem modelling simulations, using the POLCOMS-ERSEM system. These are forced by both reanalysis data and a single example of a coupled ocean-atmosphere general circulation model (OA-GCM) representative of possible conditions in 2080–2100 under an SRES A1B emissions scenario, along with the corresponding present day control. The OA-GCM forced simulations show a substantial reduction in surface nutrients in the open-ocean regions of the model domain, comparing future and present day time-slices. This arises from a large increase in oceanic stratification. Tracer transport experiments identify a substantial fraction of on-shelf water originates from the open-ocean region to the south of the domain, where this increase is largest, and indeed the on-shelf nutrient and primary production are reduced as this water is transported on-shelf. This relationship is confirmed quantitatively by comparing changes in winter nitrate with total annual nitrate uptake. The reduction in primary production by the reduced nutrient transport is mitigated by on-shelf processes relating to temperature, stratification (length of growing season) and recycling. Regions less exposed to ocean-shelf exchange in this model (Celtic Sea, Irish Sea, English Channel, and Southern North Sea) show a modest increase in primary production (of 5–10%) compared with a decrease of 0–20% in the outer shelf, Central and Northern North Sea. These findings are backed up by a boundary condition perturbation experiment and a simple mixing model.

Nitrogen uptake of phytoplankton assemblages under contrasting upwelling and downwelling conditions: The Ría de Vigo, NW Iberia

Regenerated production (including organic nitrogen) is shown here to be important in the Ria de Vigo (Galicia, NW Iberia) in supporting both harmful algal bloom communities during the downwelling season, but also (to a lesser extent) diatom communities during stratified periods of weak to moderate upwelling. The Galician Rias, situated in the Iberian upwelling system, are regularly affected by blooms of toxic dinoflagellates, which pose serious threats to the local mussel farming industry. These tend to occur towards the end of summer, during the transition from upwelling to downwelling favourable seasons, when cold bottom shelf waters in the rias are replaced by warm surface shelf waters. Nitrate, ammonium and urea uptake rates were measured in the Ria de Vigo during a downwelling event in September 2006 and during an upwelling event in June 2007. In September the ria was well mixed, with a downwelling front observed towards the middle of the ria and relatively high nutrient concentrations (1.0-2.6 mu mol L-1 nitrate; 1.0-5.6 mu mol L-1 ammonium; 0.1-0.8 mu mol L-1 phosphate; 2.0-9.0 mu mol L-1 silicic acid) were present throughout the water column. Ammonium represented more than 80% of the nitrogenous nutrients, and the phytoplankton assemblage was dominated by dinoflagellates and small flagellates. In June the water column was stratified, with nutrient-rich, upwelled water below the thermocline and warm, nutrient-depleted water in the surface. At this time, nitrate represented more than 80% of the nitrogenous nutrients, and a mixed diatom assemblage was present. Primary phytoplankton production during both events was mainly sustained by regenerated nitrogen, with ammonium uptake rates of 0.035-0.063 mu mol N L-1 h(-1) in September and 0.078-0.188 mu mol N L-1 h(-1) in June. Although f-ratios were generally low (<0.2) in both June and September, a maximum of 0.61 was reached in June due to higher nitrate uptake (0.225 mu mol N L-1 h(-1)). Total nitrogen uptake was also higher during the upwelling event (0.153-0.366 in June and 0.053-0.096 mu mol N L-1 h(-1) in September). Nitrogen uptake kinetics demonstrated a strong preference for ammonium and urea over nitrate in June.

Coccolithophore species as indicators of surface oceanographic conditions in the vicinity of Azores islands

During summer 2008 and spring 2009, surface oceanographic surveys were carried out around three islands of the Azores archipelago (Terceira, Sao Miguel and Santa Maria) to assess the phytoplankton distribution and associated physico-chemical processes. The Azores archipelago is a major feature in the biogeochemical North Atlantic Subtropical Gyre (NAST) province although its influence on the productivity of the surrounding ocean is poorly known. Surface phytoplankton was studied by microscopy and HPLC (High Precision Liquid Chromatography). The mean values for biomass proxy Chlorophyll a (Chla) ranged from 0.04 to 0.55 mu g L-1 (Chla maximum = 0.86 mu g L-1) and coccolithophores were the most abundant group, followed by small flagellates, Cyanobacteria, diatoms and dinoflagellates being the least abundant group. The distribution of phytoplankton and coccolithophore species in particular presented seasonal differences and was consistent with the nearshore influence of warm subtropical waters from the south Azores current and colder subpolar waters from the north. The satellite-derived circulation patterns showed southward cold water intrusions off Terceira and northward warm water intrusions off Santa Maria. The warmer waters signal was confirmed by the subtropical coccolithophore assemblage, being Discosphaera tubifera a constant presence under these conditions. The regions of enhanced biomass, either resulting from northern cooler waters or from island induced processes, were characterized by the presence of Emiliania huxleyi. Diatoms and dinoflagellates indicated coastal and regional processes of nutrient enrichment and areas of physical stability, respectively.

Effects of environmental conditions on the seasonal distribution of phytoplankton biomass in the North Sea

We study the spatial and seasonal variability of phytoplankton biomass (as phytoplankton color) in relation to the environmental conditions in the North Sea using data from the Continuous Plankton Recorder survey. By using only environmental fields and location as predictor variables we developed a nonparametric model (generalized additive model) to empirically explore how key environmental factors modulate the spatio-temporal patterns of the seasonal cycle of algal biomass as well as how these relate to the ,1988 North Sea regime shift. Solar radiation, as manifest through changes of sea surface temperature (SST), was a key factor not only in the seasonal cycle but also as a driver of the shift. The pronounced increase in SST and in wind speed after the 1980s resulted in an extension of the season favorable for phytoplankton growth. Nutrients appeared to be unimportant as explanatory variables for the observed spatio-temporal pattern, implying that they were not generally limiting factors. Under the new climatic regime the carrying capacity of the whole system has been increased and the southern North Sea, where the environmental changes have been more pronounced, reached a new maximum.

Have climate induced changes in zooplankton communities led to poor conditions for larval fish growth? A test on cod larvae on the UK shelf

Climate effects have been shown to be at least partly responsible for the reorganisation in the plankton ecosystem on the shelf seas of NW Europe over the last 50 years. Most fish larvae feed primarily on zooplankton, so changes in zooplankton quantity, quality and seasonal timing have been hypothesized to be a key factor affecting their survival. To investigate this we have implemented a 1-dimensional trophodynamic growth model of cod larvae for the waters around the UK covering the period 1960 to 2003. Larval growth is modelled as the difference between the amount of food absorbed by the larva and its various metabolic costs. Prey availability is based upon the biomass and size of available preys (i.e. adults and nauplii copepods and cladocerans) taken from the Continuous Plankton Recorder dataset. Temperature and wind forcing are also taken into account. Results suggest that observed changes in plankton community structure may have had less impact than previously suggested. This is because changes in prey availability may be compensated for by increased temperatures resulting in little overall impact on potential larval growth. Stock recovery, at least in the short term is likely to be more dependent upon conserving the year classes recruited to allow spawning stock biomass to rebuild. If as our model suggests, the larvae are still able to survive in the changing environment, reduction in fishing on the adults is needed to allow the stock to recover.

Optimal foraging strategies: Lévy walks balance searching and patch exploitation under a very broad range of conditions

While evidence for optimal random search patterns, known as Lévy walks, in empirical movement data is mounting for a growing list of taxa spanning motile cells to humans, there is still much debate concerning the theoretical generality of Lévy walk optimisation. Here, using a new and robust simulation environment, we investigate in the most detailed study to date (24×10(6) simulations) the foraging and search efficiencies of 2-D Lévy walks with a range of exponents, target resource distributions and several competing models. We find strong and comprehensive support for the predictions of the Lévy flight foraging hypothesis and in particular for the optimality of inverse square distributions of move step-lengths across a much broader range of resource densities and distributions than previously realised. Further support for the evolutionary advantage of Lévy walk movement patterns is provided by an investigation into the 'feast and famine' effect, with Lévy foragers in heterogeneous environments experiencing fewer long 'famines' than other types of searchers. Therefore overall, optimal Lévy foraging results in more predictable resources in unpredictable environments.

Modelling the Influence of Major Baltic Inflows on Near-Bottom Conditions at the Entrance of the Gulf of Finland

A coupled hydrodynamic-biogeochemical model was implemented in order to estimate the effects of Major Baltic Inflows on the near-bottom hydrophysical and biogeochemical conditions in the northern Baltic Proper and the western Gulf of Finland during the period 1991�2009. We compared results of a realistic reference run to the results of an experimental run where Major Baltic Inflows were suppressed. Further to the expected overall decrease in bottom salinity, this modelling experiment confirms that in the absence of strong saltwater inflows the deep areas of the Baltic Proper would become more anoxic, while in the shallower areas (western Gulf of Finland) near-bottom average conditions improve. Our experiment revealed that typical estuarine circulation results in the sporadic emergence of short-lasting events of near-bottom anoxia in the western Gulf of Finland due to transport of water masses from the Baltic Proper. Extrapolating our results beyond the modelled period, we speculate that the further deepening of the halocline in the Baltic Proper is likely to prevent inflows of anoxic water to the Gulf of Finland and in the longer term would lead to improvement in near-bottom conditions in the Baltic Proper. Our results reaffirm the importance of accurate representation of salinity dynamics in coupled Baltic Sea models serving as a basis for credible hindcast and future projection simulations of biogeochemical conditions.

Validation of the detection of Alexandrium species using specific RNA probes tested in a microarray format: Calibration of signal using variability of RNA content with environmental conditions.

The dinoflagellate genus Alexandrium contains several toxin producing species and strains, which can cause major economic losses to the shell fish industry. It is therefore important to be able to detect these toxin producers and also distinguish toxic strains from some of the morphologically identical non-toxic strains. To facilitate this DNA probes to be used in a microarray format were designed in silico or developed from existing published probes. These probes targeted either the 18S or 28S ribosomal ribonucleic acid (rRNA) gene in Alexandrium tamarense Group I, Group III and Group IV, Alexandrium ostenfeldii and Alexandrium minutum. Three strains of A. tamarense Group I, A. tamarense Group III, A. minutum and two strains of A. ostenfeldii were grown at optimal conditions and transferred into new environmental conditions changing either the light intensity, salinity, temperature or nutrient concentrations, to check if any of these environmental conditions induced changes in the cellular ribonucleic acid (RNA) concentration or growth rate. The aim of this experiment was the calibration of several species-specific probes for the quantification of the toxic Alexandrium strains. Growth rates were highly variable but only elevated or lowered salinity significantly lowered growth rate for A. tamarense Group I and Group III; differences in RNA content were not significant for the majority of the treatments. Only light intensity seemed to affect significantly the RNA content in A. tamarense Group I and Group III, but this was still within the same range as for the other treatments meaning that a back calibration from RNA to cell numbers was possible. The designed probes allow the production of quantitative information for Alexandrium species for the microarray chip.

Validation of the detection of Pseudo-nitzschia spp. using specific RNA probes tested in a microarray format: Calibration of signal based on variability of RNA content with environmental conditions.

Harmful algal blooms (HAB) occur worldwide and cause health problems and economic damage to fisheries and tourism. Monitoring for toxic algae is therefore essential but is based primarily on light microscopy, which is time consuming and can be limited by insufficient morphological characters such that more time is needed to examine critical features with electron microscopy. Monitoring with molecular tools is done in only a few places world-wide. EU FP7 MIDTAL (Microarray Detection of Toxic Algae) used SSU and LSU rRNA genes as targets on microarrays to identify toxic species. In order to comply with current monitoring requirements to report cell numbers as the relevant threshold measurement to trigger closure of fisheries, it was necessary to calibrate our microarray to convert the hybridisation signal obtained to cell numbers. Calibration curves for two species of Pseudo-nitzschia for use with the MIDTAL microarray are presented to obtain cell numbers following hybridisation. It complements work presented by Barra et al. (2012b. Environ. Sci. Pollut. Res. doi: 10.1007/s11356-012-1330-1v) for two other Pseudo-nitzschia spp., Dittami and Edvardsen (2012a. J. Phycol. 48, 1050) for Pseudochatonella, Blanco et al. (2013. Harmful Algae 24, 80) for Heterosigma, McCoy et al. (2013. FEMS. doi: 10.1111/1574-6941.12277) for Prymnesium spp., Karlodinium veneficum, and cf. Chatonella spp. and Taylor et al. (2014. Harmful Algae, in press) for Alexandrium.

Differential lifetime success and performance of native and non-native Atlantic salmon examined under communal natural conditions.

The lifetime success and performance characteristics of communally reared offspring of wild native Burrishoole (native), ranched native (ranched) and non-native (non-native) Atlantic salmon Salmo salar from the adjacent Owenmore River were compared. Non-native year parr showed a substantial downstream migration, which was not shown by native and ranched parr. This appears to have been an active migration rather than competitive displacement and may reflect an adaptation to environmental or physiographic conditions within the Owenmore River catchment where the main nursery habitat is downstream of the spawning area. There were no differences between native and ranched in smolt output or adult return. Both of these measures, however, were significantly lower for the non-native group. A greater proportion of the non-native Atlantic salmon was taken in the coastal drift nets compared to the return to the Burrishoole system, probably as a result of the greater size of the non-native fish. The overall lifetime success of the non-native group, from fertilized egg to returning adult, was some 35% of native and ranched. The ranched group showed a significantly greater male parr maturity, a greater proportion of 1+ year smolts, and differences in sex ratio and timing of freshwater entry of returning adults compared to native, which may have fitness implications under specific conditions.