Climate and chemistry effects of a regional scale nuclear conflict

Previous studies have highlighted the severity of detrimental effects for life on earth after an assumed regionally limited nuclear war. These effects are caused by climatic, chemical and radiative changes persisting for up to one decade. However, so far only a very limited number of climate model simulations have been performed, giving rise to the question how realistic previous computations have been. This study uses the coupled chemistry climate model (CCM) SOCOL, which belongs to a different family of CCMs than previously used, to investigate the consequences of such a hypothetical nuclear conflict. In accordance with previous studies, the present work assumes a scenario of a nuclear conflict between India and Pakistan, each applying 50 warheads with an individual blasting power of 15 kt ("Hiroshima size") against the major population centers, resulting in the emission of tiny soot particles, which are generated in the firestorms expected in the aftermath of the detonations. Substantial uncertainties related to the calculation of likely soot emissions, particularly concerning assumptions of target fuel loading and targeting of weapons, have been addressed by simulating several scenarios, with soot emissions ranging from 1 to 12 Tg. Their high absorptivity with respect to solar radiation leads to a rapid self-lofting of the soot particles into the strato- and mesosphere within a few days after emission, where they remain for several years. Consequently, the model suggests earth's surface temperatures to drop by several degrees Celsius due to the shielding of solar irradiance by the soot, indicating a major global cooling. In addition, there is a substantial reduction of precipitation lasting 5 to 10 yr after the conflict, depending on the magnitude of the initial soot release. Extreme cold spells associated with an increase in sea ice formation are found during Northern Hemisphere winter, which expose the continental land masses of North America and Eurasia to a cooling of several degrees. In the stratosphere, the strong heating leads to an acceleration of catalytic ozone loss and, consequently, to enhancements of UV radiation at the ground. In contrast to surface temperature and precipitation changes, which show a linear dependence to the soot burden, there is a saturation effect with respect to stratospheric ozone chemistry. Soot emissions of 5 Tg lead to an ozone column reduction of almost 50% in northern high latitudes, while emitting 12 Tg only increases ozone loss by a further 10%. In summary, this study, though using a different chemistry climate model, corroborates the previous investigations with respect to the atmospheric impacts. In addition to these persistent effects, the present study draws attention to episodically cold phases, which would likely add to the severity of human harm worldwide. The best insurance against such a catastrophic development would be the delegitimization of nuclear weapons.

LakeMIP Kivu: evaluating the representation of a large, deep tropical lake by a set of one-dimensional lake models

The African great lakes are of utmost importance for the local economy (fishing), as well as being essential to the survival of the local people. During the past decades, these lakes experienced fast changes in ecosystem structure and functioning, and their future evolution is a major concern. In this study, for the first time a set of one-dimensional lake models are evaluated for Lake Kivu (2.28°S; 28.98°E), East Africa. The unique limnology of this meromictic lake, with the importance of salinity and subsurface springs in a tropical high-altitude climate, presents a worthy challenge to the seven models involved in the Lake Model Intercomparison Project (LakeMIP). Meteorological observations from two automatic weather stations are used to drive the models, whereas a unique dataset, containing over 150 temperature profiles recorded since 2002, is used to assess the model’s performance. Simulations are performed over the freshwater layer only (60 m) and over the average lake depth (240 m), since salinity increases with depth below 60 m in Lake Kivu and some lake models do not account for the influence of salinity upon lake stratification. All models are able to reproduce the mixing seasonality in Lake Kivu, as well as the magnitude and seasonal cycle of the lake enthalpy change. Differences between the models can be ascribed to variations in the treatment of the radiative forcing and the computation of the turbulent heat fluxes. Fluctuations in wind velocity and solar radiation explain inter-annual variability of observed water column temperatures. The good agreement between the deep simulations and the observed meromictic stratification also shows that a subset of models is able to account for the salinity- and geothermal-induced effects upon deep-water stratification. Finally, based on the strengths and weaknesses discerned in this study, an informed choice of a one-dimensional lake model for a given research purpose becomes possible.

On the evolution of the oceanic component of the IPSL climate models from CMIP3 to CMIP5: A mean state comparison

This study analyses the impact on the oceanic mean state of the evolution of the oceanic component (NEMO) of the climate model developed at Institut Pierre Simon Laplace (IPSL-CM), from the version IPSL-CM4, used for third phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP3), to IPSL-CM5A, used for CMIP5. Several modifications have been implemented between these two versions, in particular an interactive coupling with a biogeochemical module, a 3-band model for the penetration of the solar radiation, partial steps at the bottom of the ocean and a set of physical parameterisations to improve the representation of the impact of turbulent and tidal mixing. A set of forced and coupled experiments is used to single out the effect of each of these modifications and more generally the evolution of the oceanic component on the IPSL coupled models family. Major improvements are located in the Southern Ocean, where physical parameterisations such as partial steps and tidal mixing reinforce the barotropic transport of water mass, in particular in the Antarctic Circumpolar Current) and ensure a better representation of Antarctic bottom water masses. However, our analysis highlights that modifications, which substantially improve ocean dynamics in forced configuration, can yield or amplify biases in coupled configuration. In particular, the activation of radiative biophysical coupling between biogeochemical cycle and ocean dynamics results in a cooling of the ocean mean state. This illustrates the difficulty to improve and tune coupled climate models, given the large number of degrees of freedom and the potential compensating effects masking some biases.

Antarctic Volcanic Flux Ratios from Law Dome Ice Cores

Explosive volcanic eruptions can inject large quantities of sulphur dioxide into the stratosphere. The aerosols that result from oxidation of the sulphur dioxide can produce significant cooling of the troposphere by reflecting or absorbing solar radiation. It is possible to obtain an estimate of the relative stratospheric sulphur aerosol concentration produced by different volcanoes by comparing sulphuric acid fluxes determined by analysis of polar ice cores. Here, we use a non-sea-salt sulphate time series derived from three well-dated Law Dome ice cores to investigate sulphuric acid flux ratios for major eruptions over the period AD 1301-1995. We use additional data from other cores to investigate systematic spatial variability in the ratios. Only for the Kuwae eruption (Law Dome ice date AD 1459.5) was the H2SO4 flux larger than that deposited by Tambora (Law Dome ice date AD 1816.7).

Relation between Excitation Power Density and Er3+ Doping Yielding the Highest Absolute Upconversion Quantum Yield

The upconversion quantum yield (UCQY) is one of the most significant parameters for upconverter materials. A high UCQY is essential for a succesful integration of upconversion in many applications, such as harvesting of the solar radiation. However, little is known about which doping level of the rare-earth ions yields the highest UCQY in the different host lattices and what are the underlying causes. Here, we investigate which Er3+ doping yields the highest UCQY in the host lattices β-NaYF4 and Gd2O2S under 4I15/2 → 4I13/2 excitation. We show for both host lattices that the optimum Er3+ doping is not fixed and it actually decreases as the irradiance of the excitation increases. To find the optimum Er3+ doping for a given irradiance, we determined the peak position of the internal UCQY as a function of the average Er−Er distance. For this purpose, we used a fit on experimental data, where the average Er−Er distance was calculated from the Er3+ doping of the upconverter samples and the lattice parameters of the host materials. We observe optimum average Er−Er distances for the host lattices β-NaYF4 and Gd2O2S with differences <14% at the same irradiance levels, whereas the optimum Er3+ doping are around 2× higher for β-NaYF4 than for Gd2O2S. Estimations by extrapolation to higher irradiances indicate that the optimum average Er−Er distance converges to values around 0.88 and 0.83 nm for β-NaYF4 and Gd2O2S, respectively. Our findings point to a fundamental relationship and focusing on the average distance between the active rare-earth ions might be a very efficient way to optimize the doping of rare-earth ions with regard to the highest achievable UCQY.

Vitamin D status among children and adolescents on anticonvulsant drugs in southern Switzerland.

INTRODUCTION It is recognised that vitamin D status is often inadequate (<50 nmol/l) in epileptic children, mainly because some anticonvulsant drugs induce the enzymes responsible for its metabolism. The purpose of the present study was to address vitamin D status among children and adolescents treated with anticonvulsant drugs and control subjects who reside in southern Switzerland, a high solar radiation region. METHODS Between January and May 2013, total serum 25-hydroxyvitamin D was assessed by liquid chromatography-tandem mass spectrometry in 58 children and adolescents with epilepsy and 29 controls residing in southern Switzerland. Dark-skinned individuals, females wearing dress styles covering practically the whole body and subjects with body mass index ≥85th percentile for age and sex were excluded. RESULTS Concentration of serum 25-hydroxyvitamin D was similar in epilepsy patients (48 [37-62] nmol/l; median and interquartile range) and controls (53 [47-64] nmol/l). An inadequate serum 25-hydroxyvitamin D concentration was common both among patients (55%) and control subjects (34%). Serum 25-hydroxyvitamin D was significantly lower among patients treated with anticonvulsant drugs that induce the metabolism of vitamin D (30 [21-51] nmol/l) than among the remaining patients (51 [40-65] nmol/l) and controls. CONCLUSIONS The present study indicates a relevant tendency towards inadequate vitamin D status among children with and without anticonvulsant drug management who reside in southern Switzerland. This tendency is more prominent in patients treated with anticonvulsant drugs that induce the metabolism of 25-hydroxyvitamin D.

Terrestrial Radar Interferometric Measurement of Hillslope Deformation and Atmospheric Disturbances in the Illgraben Debris-Flow Catchment, Switzerland

We describe a method for rapid identification and precise quantification of slope deformation using a portable radar interferometer. A rockslide with creep-like behavior was identified in the rugged and inaccessible headwaters of the Illgraben debris-flow catchment, located in the Central Swiss Alps. The estimated volume of the moving rock mass was approximately 0.5 x 10(6) m(3) with a maximum daily (3-D) displacement rate of 3 mm. Fast scene acquisition in the order of 6 s/scene led to uniquely precise mapping of spatial and temporal variability of atmospheric phase delay. Observations led to a simple qualitative model for prediction of atmospheric disturbances using a simple model for solar radiation, which can be used for advanced campaign planning for short observation periods (hours to days).

Pasture degradation modifies the water and carbon cycles of the Tibetan highlands

The Tibetan Plateau has a significant role with regard to atmospheric circulation and the monsoon in particular. Changes between a closed plant cover and open bare soil are one of the striking effects of land use degradation observed with unsustainable range management or climate change, but experiments investigating changes of surface properties and processes together with atmospheric feedbacks are rare and have not been undertaken in the world's two largest alpine ecosystems, the alpine steppe and the Kobresia pygmaea pastures of the Tibetan Plateau. We connected measurements of micro-lysimeter, chamber, 13C labelling, and eddy covariance and combined the observations with land surface and atmospheric models, adapted to the highland conditions. This allowed us to analyse how three degradation stages affect the water and carbon cycle of pastures on the landscape scale within the core region of the Kobresia pygmaea ecosystem. The study revealed that increasing degradation of the Kobresia turf affects carbon allocation and strongly reduces the carbon uptake, compromising the function of Kobresia pastures as a carbon sink. Pasture degradation leads to a shift from transpiration to evaporation while a change in the sum of evapotranspiration over a longer period cannot be confirmed. The results show an earlier onset of convection and cloud generation, likely triggered by a shift in evapotranspiration timing when dominated by evaporation. Consequently, precipitation starts earlier and clouds decrease the incoming solar radiation. In summary, the changes in surface properties by pasture degradation found on the highland have a significant influence on larger scales.

Rapid responses of high-mountain vegetation to early Holocene environmental changes in the Swiss Alps

1 The Early Holocene sediment of a lake at tree line (Gouillé Rion, 2343 m a.s.l.) in the Swiss Central Alps was sampled for plant macrofossils. Thin (0.5 cm) slices, representing time intervals of c. 50 years each from 11 800 to 7800 cal. year bp, were analysed and the data compared with independent palaeoclimatic proxies to study vegetational responses to environmental change. 2 Alpine plant communities (e.g. with Salix herbacea) were established at 11 600–11 500 cal. year bp, when oxygen-isotope records showed that temperatures increased by c. 3–4 °C within decades. Larix decidua trees reached the site at c. 11 350 cal. year bp, probably in response to further warming by 1–2 °C. Forests dominated by L. decidua persisted until 9600 cal. year bp, when Pinus cembra became more important. 3 The dominance of Larix decidua for two millennia is explained by dry summer conditions, and possibly low winter temperatures, which favoured it over the late-successional Pinus cembra. Environmental conditions were a result of variations in the earth's orbit, leading to a maximum of summer and a minimum of winter solar radiation. Other heliophilous and drought-adapted species, such as Dryas octopetala and Juniperus nana, could persist in the open L. decidua forests, but were out-competed when the shade-tolerant P. cembra expanded. 4 The relative importance of Larix decidua decreased during periods of diminished solar radiation at 11 100, 10 100 and 9400 cal. year bp. Stable concentrations of L. decidua indicate that these percentage oscillations were caused by temporary increases of Pinus cembra, Dryas octopetala and Juniperus nana that can be explained by increases in moisture and/or decreases in summer temperature. 5 The final collapse of Larix decidua at 8400 cal. year bp was possibly related to abrupt climatic cooling as a consequence of a large meltwater input to the North Atlantic. Similarly, the temporary exclusion of Pinus cembra from tree line at 10 600–10 200 cal. year bp may be related to slowing down of thermohaline circulation at 10 700–10 300 cal. year bp. 6 Our results show that tree line vegetation was in dynamic equilibrium with climate, even during periods of extraordinarily rapid climatic change. They also imply that forecasted global warming may trigger rapid upslope movements of the tree line of up to 800 m within a few decades or centuries at most, probably inducing large-scale displacements of plant species as well as irrecoverable biodiversity losses.

Impact of Planetary Gravitation on High Precision Neutral Atom Measurements

Measurements of energetic neutral atoms (ENAs) have been extremely successful in providing very important information on the physical processes inside and outside of our heliosphere. For instance, recent Interstellar Boundary Explorer (IBEX) observations have provided new insights into the local interstellar environment and improved measurements of the interstellar He temperature, velocity, and direction of the interstellar flow vector. Since particle collisions are rare, and radiation pressure is negligible for these neutrals, gravitational forces mainly determine the trajectories of neutral He atoms. Depending on the distance of an ENA to the source of a gravitational field and its relative speed and direction, this can result in significant deflection and acceleration. In this paper, we investigate the impact of the gravitational effects of Earth, the Moon, and Jupiter on ENA measurements performed in Earth's orbit. The results show that current analysis of the interstellar neutral parameters by IBEX is not significantly affected by planetary gravitational effects. We further studied the possibility of whether or not the Helium focusing cone of the Sun and Jupiter could be measured by IBEX and whether or not these cones could be used as an independent measure of the temperature of interstellar Helium.

Radiance, irradiance, and remote sensing reflectance during the North Sea Coast Harmful Algal Bloom (NORCOHAB II) HEINCKE cruise HE302

In this study four data quality flags are presented for automated and unmanned above-water hyperspectral optical measurements collected underway in the North Sea, The Minch, Irish Sea and Celtic Sea in April/May 2009. Coincident to these optical measurements a DualDome D12 (Mobotix, Germany) camera system was used to capture sea surface and sky images. The first three flags are based on meteorological conditions, to select erroneous incoming solar irradiance (ES) taken during dusk, dawn, before significant incoming solar radiation could be detected or under rainfall. Furthermore, the relative azimuthal angle of the optical sensors to the sun is used to identify possible sunglint free sea surface zones. A total of 629 spectra remained after applying the meteorological masks (first three flags). Based on this dataset, a fourth flag for sunglint was generated by analysing and evaluating water leaving radiance (LW) and remote sensing reflectance (RRS) spectral behaviour in the presence and absence of sunglint salient in the simultaneously available sea surface images. Spectra conditions satisfying "mean LW (700-950 nm) < 2 mW/m**2/nm/Sr" or alternatively "minimum RRS (700-950 nm) < 0.010/Sr", mask the most measurements affected by sunglint, providing efficient flagging of sunglint in automated quality control. It is confirmed that valid optical measurements can be performed 0° <= theta <= 360° although 90° <= theta <= 135° is recommended.

Alpine permafrost index map

The objective of this study is the production of an Alpine Permafrost Index Map (APIM) covering the entire European Alps. A unified statistical model that is based on Alpine-wide permafrost observations is used for debris and bedrock surfaces across the entire Alps. The explanatory variables of the model are mean annual air temperatures, potential incoming solar radiation and precipitation. Offset terms were applied to make model predictions for topographic and geomorphic conditions that differ from the terrain features used for model fitting. These offsets are based on literature review and involve some degree of subjective choice during model building. The assessment of the APIM is challenging because limited independent test data are available for comparison and these observations represent point information in a spatially highly variable topography. The APIM provides an index that describes the spatial distribution of permafrost and comes together with an interpretation key that helps to assess map uncertainties and to relate map contents to their actual expression in terrain. The map can be used as a first resource to estimate permafrost conditions at any given location in the European Alps in a variety of contexts such as research and spatial planning. Results show that Switzerland likely is the country with the largest permafrost area in the Alps, followed by Italy, Austria, France and Germany. Slovenia and Liechtenstein may have marginal permafrost areas. In all countries the permafrost area is expected to be larger than the glacier-covered area.

Dust record from the EPICA Dome C ice core, Antarctica, covering 0 to 800 kyr BP

Dust can affect the radiative balance of the atmosphere by absorbing or reflecting incoming solar radiation and it can be a source of micronutrients, such as iron, to the ocean. It has been suggested that production, transport, and deposition of dust is influenced by climatic changes on glacial-interglacial timescales. Here we present a high-resolution aeolian dust record from the EPICA Dome C ice core in East Antarctica, which provides an undisturbed climate sequence over the last eight climatic cycles. We find that there is a significant correlation between dust flux and temperature records during glacial periods that is absent during interglacial periods. Our data suggests that dust flux is increasingly correlated with Antarctic temperature as climate becomes colder. We interpret this as progressive coupling of Antarctic and lower latitudes climate. Limited changes in glacial-interglacial atmospheric transport time Mahowald et al. (1999, doi:10.1029/1999JD900084), Jouzel et al. (2007, doi:10.1126/science.1141038), and Werner et al. (2002, doi:10.1029/2002JD002365) suggest that the sources and lifetime of dust are the major factors controlling the high glacial dust input. We propose that the observed ~25-fold increase in glacial dust flux over all eight glacial periods can be attributed to a strengthening of South American dust sources, together with a longer atmospheric dust particle life-time in the upper troposphere resulting from a reduced hydrological cycle during the ice ages.

Influencia del manejo del suelo y las coberturas vegetales en el microclima de la canopia de la vid, la composición de la uva y el vino

Para determinar la influencia del manejo del suelo sobre la composición de la uva y el vino se estableció un experimento en un viñedo de Cabernet Sauvignon conducido en doble cordón de pitones en espaldero alto. Se aplicaron tres tratamientos: TR-suelo sin maleza; CVP-cobertura de suelo espontánea y control del desarrollo vegetativo por desbrozado y CA-cobertura de flora espontánea y control del desarrollo vegetativo con aplicación de herbicida de contacto desecante. En la uva se determinó el contenido de azúcar, acidez total, pH y la composición fenólica (índice de polifenoles totales (IPT), grado de polimerización, flavonoles, flavan-3-oles, antocianos y proantocianidoles). Se elaboraron vinos que fueron evaluados físico-química y sensorialmente por jueces expertos. CVP tuvo el mayor contenido de antocianas y TR el de flavonoles, flavan-3-oles, proantocianidoles, IPT y grado de polimerización; CA presentó valores intermedios. Los vinos del tratamiento TR tuvieron mayor contenido de alcohol y menor de acidez total, con el color rojo (DO520) más bajo y una intensidad colorante más pequeña. Los vinos de CA y TR resultaron más amargos, más astringentes y más ásperos, y los de CVP tuvieron mayor carácter varietal. Resultó útil el empleo de coberturas de raíces superficiales y permanentemente desbrozadas para provocar cierta disminución en los valores de radiación reflejada y de la temperatura de la canopia. Las elevadas temperaturas y alta radiación solar son perjudiciales para la uva, porque aumentan la producción de quercetina y afectan el metabolismo y la degradación de antocianos.

Efectos de la carga frutal y del ambiente lumínico en ciruelo D’Agen (Prunus domestica L.)

En Mendoza, los productores de ciruelo europeo no realizan raleo de frutos. La alta carga afecta directamente la calidad de la fruta, como así también puede comprometer la siguiente floración. La falta de poda invernal provoca un progresivo sombreado del interior de la copa, en donde se observa madera improductiva. El objetivo del presente estudio fue evaluar los efectos de la carga frutal y de la radiación lumínica sobre la eficiencia productiva, la calidad de los frutos y el retorno de floración. En un huerto comercial de ciruelo europeo cv. D’Agen sobre pie 'Marianna 2624', en San Rafael, Mendoza, se ajustó la carga frutal en primavera a dos niveles (9 y 18 frutos . cm-2 de área de la sección transversal de cada rama primaria, ASTR), y en la mitad de las plantas se atenuó la radiación incidente en un 54% mediante malla plástica negra. El sombreado artificial no afectó la eficiencia productiva, mientras que la reducción de la carga frutal la disminuyó, evidenciando una compensación insuficiente mediante el incremento en el peso medio de los frutos. Las plantas no sombreadas y con baja carga frutal tuvieron frutos con mayor porcentaje de sólidos solubles. En la temporada siguiente, la densidad de frutos resultó similar en ambos niveles de carga frutal, siendo mayor el retorno de floración y menor el porcentaje de cuaje cuando la carga frutal previa fue baja.