Predicción espacio-temporal de la irradiancia solar global a corto plazo en España mediante geoestadística y redes neuronales artificiales

El enriquecimiento del conocimiento sobre la Irradiancia Solar (IS) a nivel de superficie terrestre, así como su predicción, cobran gran interés para las Energías Renovables (ER) - Energía Solar (ES)-, y para distintas aplicaciones industriales o ecológicas. En el ámbito de las ER, el uso óptimo de la ES implica contar con datos de la IS en superficie que ayuden tanto, en la selección de emplazamientos para instalaciones de ES, como en su etapa de diseño (dimensionar la producción) y, finalmente, en su explotación. En este último caso, la observación y la predicción es útil para el mercado energético, la planificación y gestión de la energía (generadoras y operadoras del sistema eléctrico), especialmente en los nuevos contextos de las redes inteligentes de transporte. A pesar de la importancia estratégica de contar con datos de la IS, especialmente los observados por sensores de IS en superficie (los que mejor captan esta variable), estos no siempre están disponibles para los lugares de interés ni con la resolución espacial y temporal deseada. Esta limitación se une a la necesidad de disponer de predicciones a corto plazo de la IS que ayuden a la planificación y gestión de la energía. Se ha indagado y caracterizado las Redes de Estaciones Meteorológicas (REM) existentes en España que publican en internet sus observaciones, focalizando en la IS. Se han identificado 24 REM (16 gubernamentales y 8 redes voluntarios) que aglutinan 3492 estaciones, convirtiéndose éstas en las fuentes de datos meteorológicos utilizados en la tesis. Se han investigado cinco técnicas de estimación espacial de la IS en intervalos de 15 minutos para el territorio peninsular (3 técnicas geoestadísticas, una determinística y el método HelioSat2 basado en imágenes satelitales) con distintas configuraciones espaciales. Cuando el área de estudio tiene una adecuada densidad de observaciones, el mejor método identificado para estimar la IS es el Kriging con Regresión usando variables auxiliares -una de ellas la IS estimada a partir de imágenes satelitales-. De este modo es posible estimar espacialmente la IS más allá de los 25 km identificados en la bibliografía. En caso contrario, se corrobora la idoneidad de utilizar estimaciones a partir de sensores remotos cuando la densidad de observaciones no es adecuada. Se ha experimentado con el modelado de Redes Neuronales Artificiales (RNA) para la predicción a corto plazo de la IS utilizando observaciones próximas (componentes espaciales) en sus entradas y, los resultados son prometedores. Así los niveles de errores disminuyen bajo las siguientes condiciones: (1) cuando el horizonte temporal de predicción es inferior o igual a 3 horas, las estaciones vecinas que se incluyen en el modelo deben encentrarse a una distancia máxima aproximada de 55 km. Esto permite concluir que las RNA son capaces de aprender cómo afectan las condiciones meteorológicas vecinas a la predicción de la IS. ABSTRACT ABSTRACT The enrichment of knowledge about the Solar Irradiance (SI) at Earth's surface and its prediction, have a high interest for Renewable Energy (RE) - Solar Energy (SE) - and for various industrial and environmental applications. In the field of the RE, the optimal use of the SE involves having SI surface to help in the selection of sites for facilities ES, in the design stage (sizing energy production), and finally on their production. In the latter case, the observation and prediction is useful for the market, planning and management of the energy (generators and electrical system operators), especially in new contexts of smart transport networks (smartgrid). Despite the strategic importance of SI data, especially those observed by sensors of SI at surface (the ones that best measure this environmental variable), these are not always available to the sights and the spatial and temporal resolution desired. This limitation is bound to the need for short-term predictions of the SI to help planning and energy management. It has been investigated and characterized existing Networks of Weather Stations (NWS) in Spain that share its observations online, focusing on SI. 24 NWS have been identified (16 government and 8 volunteer networks) that implies 3492 stations, turning it into the sources of meteorological data used in the thesis. We have investigated five technical of spatial estimation of SI in 15 minutes to the mainland (3 geostatistical techniques and HelioSat2 a deterministic method based on satellite images) with different spatial configurations. When the study area has an adequate density of observations we identified the best method to estimate the SI is the regression kriging with auxiliary variables (one of them is the SI estimated from satellite images. Thus it is possible to spatially estimate the SI beyond the 25 km identified in the literature. Otherwise, when the density of observations is inadequate the appropriateness is using the estimates values from remote sensing. It has been experimented with Artificial Neural Networks (ANN) modeling for predicting the short-term future of the SI using observations from neighbor’s weather stations (spatial components) in their inputs, and the results are promising. The error levels decrease under the following conditions: (1) when the prediction horizon is less or equal than 3 hours the best models are the ones that include data from the neighboring stations (at a maximum distance of 55 km). It is concluded that the ANN is able to learn how weather conditions affect neighboring prediction of IS at such Spatio-temporal horizons.

Predicting EQ-5D from the Parkinson's disease questionnaire PDQ-8 using multi-dimensional Bayesian network classifiers

The impact of the Parkinson's disease and its treatment on the patients' health-related quality of life can be estimated either by means of generic measures such as the european quality of Life-5 Dimensions (EQ-5D) or specific measures such as the 8-item Parkinson's disease questionnaire (PDQ-8). In clinical studies, PDQ-8 could be used in detriment of EQ-5D due to the lack of resources, time or clinical interest in generic measures. Nevertheless, PDQ-8 cannot be applied in cost-effectiveness analyses which require generic measures and quantitative utility scores, such as EQ-5D. To deal with this problem, a commonly used solution is the prediction of EQ-5D from PDQ-8. In this paper, we propose a new probabilistic method to predict EQ-5D from PDQ-8 using multi-dimensional Bayesian network classifiers. Our approach is evaluated using five-fold cross-validation experiments carried out on a Parkinson's data set containing 488 patients, and is compared with two additional Bayesian network-based approaches, two commonly used mapping methods namely, ordinary least squares and censored least absolute deviations, and a deterministic model. Experimental results are promising in terms of predictive performance as well as the identification of dependence relationships among EQ-5D and PDQ-8 items that the mapping approaches are unable to detect

Assessment of damage domains of the High-Temperature Engineering Test Reactor (HTTR)

This paper presents an assessment analysis of damage domains of the 30 MWth prototype High-Temperature Engineering Test Reactor (HTTR) operated by the Japan Atomic Energy Agency (JAEA). For this purpose, an in-house deterministic risk assessment computational tool was developed based on the Theory of Stimulated Dynamics (TSD). To illustrate the methodology and applicability of the developed modelling approach, assessment results of a control rod (CR) withdrawal accident during subcritical conditions are presented and compared with those obtained by the JAEA.

Revising the Emergency Management Requirements for new generation reactors

The paper presents the application of a new risk-informed methodology for the identification of the Emergency Management Requirements (EMR) to a Generation II, Large size Reactor and a Generation III+ Small Modular Reactor. The results obtained in this test case demonstrate that the actual EMR is conservative, as expected, for the GenII reactor, while the new methodology could be applied for the definition of EMRs for the new generation Nuclear Power Plants, with a possible reduction of the emergency area without loss of safety level. By adopting both probabilistic and deterministic approaches, the study addresses possible accidents and corresponding release scenarios for the two types of reactor, calculates the areas where the accidents have an impact on the population and defines the new EMR considering the health effects on the population.

Effects of the water level on the flow topology over the Bolund island

We have analyzed the influence of the actual height of Bolund island above water level on different full-scale statistics of the velocity field over the peninsula. Our analysis is focused on the database of 10-minute statistics provided by Risø-DTU for the Bolund Blind Experiment. We have considered 10-minut.e periods with near-neutral atmospheric conditions, mean wind speed values in the interval [5,20] m/s, and westerly wind directions. As expected, statistics such as speed-up, normalized increase of turbulent kinetic energy and probability of recirculating flow show a large dependence on the emerged height of the island for the locations close to the escarpment. For the published ensemble mean values of speed-up and normalized increase of turbulent kinetic energy in these locations, we propose that some ammount of uncertainty could be explained as a deterministic dependence of the flow field statistics upon the actual height of the Bolund island above the sea level

Comparison of Airborne Laser Scanning Methods for Estimating Forest Structure Indicators Based on Lorenz Curves

The purpose of this study was to compare a number of state-of-the-art methods in airborne laser scan- ning (ALS) remote sensing with regards to their capacity to describe tree size inequality and other indi- cators related to forest structure. The indicators chosen were based on the analysis of the Lorenz curve: Gini coefficient ( GC ), Lorenz asymmetry ( LA ), the proportions of basal area ( BALM ) and stem density ( NSLM ) stocked above the mean quadratic diameter. Each method belonged to one of these estimation strategies: (A) estimating indicators directly; (B) estimating the whole Lorenz curve; or (C) estimating a complete tree list. Across these strategies, the most popular statistical methods for area-based approach (ABA) were used: regression, random forest (RF), and nearest neighbour imputation. The latter included distance metrics based on either RF (NN–RF) or most similar neighbour (MSN). In the case of tree list esti- mation, methods based on individual tree detection (ITD) and semi-ITD, both combined with MSN impu- tation, were also studied. The most accurate method was direct estimation by best subset regression, which obtained the lowest cross-validated coefficients of variation of their root mean squared error CV(RMSE) for most indicators: GC (16.80%), LA (8.76%), BALM (8.80%) and NSLM (14.60%). Similar figures [CV(RMSE) 16.09%, 10.49%, 10.93% and 14.07%, respectively] were obtained by MSN imputation of tree lists by ABA, a method that also showed a number of additional advantages, such as better distributing the residual variance along the predictive range. In light of our results, ITD approaches may be clearly inferior to ABA with regards to describing the structural properties related to tree size inequality in for- ested areas.

Analysis of the damage domains of sbo sequences with rcp passive thermal shutdown

The integrated Safety Assessment (ISA) methodology, developed by the Spanish Nuclear Safety Council (CSN), has been applied to a thermal-hydraulic analysis of PWR Station Blackout (SBO) sequences in the context of the IDPSA (Integrated Deterministic-Probabilistic Safety Assessment) network objectives. The ISA methodology allows obtaining the damage domain (the region of the uncertain parameters space where the damage limit is exceeded) for each sequence of interest as a function of the operator actuations times. Given a particular safety limit or damage limit, several data of every sequence are necessary in order to obtain the exceedance frequency of that limit. In this application these data are obtained from the results of the simulations performed with MAAP code transients inside each damage domain and the time-density probability distributions of the manual actions. Damage limits that have been taken into account within this analysis are: local cladding damage (PCT>1477 K); local fuel melting (T>2499 K); fuel relocation in lower plenum and vessel failure. Therefore, to every one of these damage variables corresponds a different damage domain. The operation of the new passive thermal shutdown seals developed by several companies since Fukushima accident is considered in the paper. The results show the capability and necessity of the ISA methodology, or similar, in order to obtain accurate results that take into account time uncertainties.

Hardware timestamping for image acquisition system based on FlexRIO and IEEE 1588 v2 Standard

Current fusion devices consist of multiple diagnostics and hundreds or even thousands of signals. This situation forces on multiple occasions to use distributed data acquisition systems as the best approach. In this type of distributed systems, one of the most important issues is the synchronization between signals, so that it is possible to have a temporal correlation as accurate as possible between the acquired samples of all channels. In last decades, many fusion devices use different types of video cameras to provide inside views of the vessel during operations and to monitor plasma behavior. The synchronization between each video frame and the rest of the different signals acquired from any other diagnostics is essential in order to know correctly the plasma evolution, since it is possible to analyze jointly all the information having accurate knowledge of their temporal correlation. The developed system described in this paper allows timestamping image frames in a real-time acquisition and processing system using 1588 clock distribution. The system has been implemented using FPGA based devices together with a 1588 synchronized timing card (see Fig.1). The solution is based on a previous system [1] that allows image acquisition and real-time image processing based on PXIe technology. This architecture is fully compatible with the ITER Fast Controllers [2] and offers integration with EPICS to control and monitor the entire system. However, this set-up is not able to timestamp the frames acquired since the frame grabber module does not present any type of timing input (IRIG-B, GPS, PTP). To solve this lack, an IEEE1588 PXI timing device its used to provide an accurate way to synchronize distributed data acquisition systems using the Precision Time Protocol (PTP) IEEE 1588 2008 standard. This local timing device can be connected to a master clock device for global synchronization. The timing device has a buffer timestamp for each PXI trigger line and requires tha- a software application assigns each frame the corresponding timestamp. The previous action is critical and cannot be achieved if the frame rate is high. To solve this problem, it has been designed a solution that distributes the clock from the IEEE 1588 timing card to all FlexRIO devices [3]. This solution uses two PXI trigger lines that provide the capacity to assign timestamps to every frame acquired and register events by hardware in a deterministic way. The system provides a solution for timestamping frames to synchronize them with the rest of the different signals.

Development of Brain-Computer Interfaces using Evolvable Hardware

Brain-Computer Interfaces are usually tackled from a medical point of view, correlating observed phenomena to physical facts known about the brain. Existing methods of classification lie in the application of deterministic algorithms and depend on certain degree of knowledge about the underlying phenomena so as to process data. In this demo, different architectures for an evolvable hardware classifier implemented on an FPGA are proposed, in line with the objective of generalizing evolutionary algorithms regardless of the application.

Modelo de computación conexionista inspirado en las redes de procesadores evolutivos y su aprendizaje

La informática teórica es una disciplina básica ya que la mayoría de los avances en informática se sustentan en un sólido resultado de esa materia. En los últimos a~nos debido tanto al incremento de la potencia de los ordenadores, como a la cercanía del límite físico en la miniaturización de los componentes electrónicos, resurge el interés por modelos formales de computación alternativos a la arquitectura clásica de von Neumann. Muchos de estos modelos se inspiran en la forma en la que la naturaleza resuelve eficientemente problemas muy complejos. La mayoría son computacionalmente completos e intrínsecamente paralelos. Por este motivo se les está llegando a considerar como nuevos paradigmas de computación (computación natural). Se dispone, por tanto, de un abanico de arquitecturas abstractas tan potentes como los computadores convencionales y, a veces, más eficientes: alguna de ellas mejora el rendimiento, al menos temporal, de problemas NPcompletos proporcionando costes no exponenciales. La representación formal de las redes de procesadores evolutivos requiere de construcciones, tanto independientes, como dependientes del contexto, dicho de otro modo, en general una representación formal completa de un NEP implica restricciones, tanto sintácticas, como semánticas, es decir, que muchas representaciones aparentemente (sintácticamente) correctas de casos particulares de estos dispositivos no tendrían sentido porque podrían no cumplir otras restricciones semánticas. La aplicación de evolución gramatical semántica a los NEPs pasa por la elección de un subconjunto de ellos entre los que buscar los que solucionen un problema concreto. En este trabajo se ha realizado un estudio sobre un modelo inspirado en la biología celular denominado redes de procesadores evolutivos [55, 53], esto es, redes cuyos nodos son procesadores muy simples capaces de realizar únicamente un tipo de mutación puntual (inserción, borrado o sustitución de un símbolo). Estos nodos están asociados con un filtro que está definido por alguna condición de contexto aleatorio o de pertenencia. Las redes están formadas a lo sumo de seis nodos y, teniendo los filtros definidos por una pertenencia a lenguajes regulares, son capaces de generar todos los lenguajes enumerables recursivos independientemente del grafo subyacente. Este resultado no es sorprendente ya que semejantes resultados han sido documentados en la literatura. Si se consideran redes con nodos y filtros definidos por contextos aleatorios {que parecen estar más cerca a las implementaciones biológicas{ entonces se pueden generar lenguajes más complejos como los lenguajes no independientes del contexto. Sin embargo, estos mecanismos tan simples son capaces de resolver problemas complejos en tiempo polinomial. Se ha presentado una solución lineal para un problema NP-completo, el problema de los 3-colores. Como primer aporte significativo se ha propuesto una nueva dinámica de las redes de procesadores evolutivos con un comportamiento no determinista y masivamente paralelo [55], y por tanto todo el trabajo de investigación en el área de la redes de procesadores se puede trasladar a las redes masivamente paralelas. Por ejemplo, las redes masivamente paralelas se pueden modificar de acuerdo a determinadas reglas para mover los filtros hacia las conexiones. Cada conexión se ve como un canal bidireccional de manera que los filtros de entrada y salida coinciden. A pesar de esto, estas redes son computacionalmente completas. Se pueden también implementar otro tipo de reglas para extender este modelo computacional. Se reemplazan las mutaciones puntuales asociadas a cada nodo por la operación de splicing. Este nuevo tipo de procesador se denomina procesador splicing. Este modelo computacional de Red de procesadores con splicing ANSP es semejante en cierto modo a los sistemas distribuidos en tubos de ensayo basados en splicing. Además, se ha definido un nuevo modelo [56] {Redes de procesadores evolutivos con filtros en las conexiones{ , en el cual los procesadores tan solo tienen reglas y los filtros se han trasladado a las conexiones. Dicho modelo es equivalente, bajo determinadas circunstancias, a las redes de procesadores evolutivos clásicas. Sin dichas restricciones el modelo propuesto es un superconjunto de los NEPs clásicos. La principal ventaja de mover los filtros a las conexiones radica en la simplicidad de la modelización. Otras aportaciones de este trabajo ha sido el dise~no de un simulador en Java [54, 52] para las redes de procesadores evolutivos propuestas en esta Tesis. Sobre el término "procesador evolutivo" empleado en esta Tesis, el proceso computacional descrito aquí no es exactamente un proceso evolutivo en el sentido Darwiniano. Pero las operaciones de reescritura que se han considerado pueden interpretarse como mutaciones y los procesos de filtrado se podrían ver como procesos de selección. Además, este trabajo no abarca la posible implementación biológica de estas redes, a pesar de ser de gran importancia. A lo largo de esta tesis se ha tomado como definición de la medida de complejidad para los ANSP, una que denotaremos como tama~no (considerando tama~no como el número de nodos del grafo subyacente). Se ha mostrado que cualquier lenguaje enumerable recursivo L puede ser aceptado por un ANSP en el cual el número de procesadores está linealmente acotado por la cardinalidad del alfabeto de la cinta de una máquina de Turing que reconoce dicho lenguaje L. Siguiendo el concepto de ANSP universales introducido por Manea [65], se ha demostrado que un ANSP con una estructura de grafo fija puede aceptar cualquier lenguaje enumerable recursivo. Un ANSP se puede considerar como un ente capaz de resolver problemas, además de tener otra propiedad relevante desde el punto de vista práctico: Se puede definir un ANSP universal como una subred, donde solo una cantidad limitada de parámetros es dependiente del lenguaje. La anterior característica se puede interpretar como un método para resolver cualquier problema NP en tiempo polinomial empleando un ANSP de tama~no constante, concretamente treinta y uno. Esto significa que la solución de cualquier problema NP es uniforme en el sentido de que la red, exceptuando la subred universal, se puede ver como un programa; adaptándolo a la instancia del problema a resolver, se escogerín los filtros y las reglas que no pertenecen a la subred universal. Un problema interesante desde nuestro punto de vista es el que hace referencia a como elegir el tama~no optimo de esta red.---ABSTRACT---This thesis deals with the recent research works in the area of Natural Computing {bio-inspired models{, more precisely Networks of Evolutionary Processors first developed by Victor Mitrana and they are based on P Systems whose father is Georghe Paun. In these models, they are a set of processors connected in an underlying undirected graph, such processors have an object multiset (strings) and a set of rules, named evolution rules, that transform objects inside processors[55, 53],. These objects can be sent/received using graph connections provided they accomplish constraints defined at input and output filters processors have. This symbolic model, non deterministic one (processors are not synchronized) and massive parallel one[55] (all rules can be applied in one computational step) has some important properties regarding solution of NP-problems in lineal time and of course, lineal resources. There are a great number of variants such as hybrid networks, splicing processors, etc. that provide the model a computational power equivalent to Turing machines. The origin of networks of evolutionary processors (NEP for short) is a basic architecture for parallel and distributed symbolic processing, related to the Connection Machine as well as the Logic Flow paradigm, which consists of several processors, each of them being placed in a node of a virtual complete graph, which are able to handle data associated with the respective node. All the nodes send simultaneously their data and the receiving nodes handle also simultaneously all the arriving messages, according to some strategies. In a series of papers one considers that each node may be viewed as a cell having genetic information encoded in DNA sequences which may evolve by local evolutionary events, that is point mutations. Each node is specialized just for one of these evolutionary operations. Furthermore, the data in each node is organized in the form of multisets of words (each word appears in an arbitrarily large number of copies), and all the copies are processed in parallel such that all the possible events that can take place do actually take place. Obviously, the computational process just described is not exactly an evolutionary process in the Darwinian sense. But the rewriting operations we have considered might be interpreted as mutations and the filtering process might be viewed as a selection process. Recombination is missing but it was asserted that evolutionary and functional relationships between genes can be captured by taking only local mutations into consideration. It is clear that filters associated with each node allow a strong control of the computation. Indeed, every node has an input and output filter; two nodes can exchange data if it passes the output filter of the sender and the input filter of the receiver. Moreover, if some data is sent out by some node and not able to enter any node, then it is lost. In this paper we simplify the ANSP model considered in by moving the filters from the nodes to the edges. Each edge is viewed as a two-way channel such that the input and output filters coincide. Clearly, the possibility of controlling the computation in such networks seems to be diminished. For instance, there is no possibility to loose data during the communication steps. In spite of this and of the fact that splicing is not a powerful operation (remember that splicing systems generates only regular languages) we prove here that these devices are computationally complete. As a consequence, we propose characterizations of two complexity classes, namely NP and PSPACE, in terms of accepting networks of restricted splicing processors with filtered connections. We proposed a uniform linear time solution to SAT based on ANSPFCs with linearly bounded resources. This solution should be understood correctly: we do not solve SAT in linear time and space. Since any word and auxiliary word appears in an arbitrarily large number of copies, one can generate in linear time, by parallelism and communication, an exponential number of words each of them having an exponential number of copies. However, this does not seem to be a major drawback since by PCR (Polymerase Chain Reaction) one can generate an exponential number of identical DNA molecules in a linear number of reactions. It is worth mentioning that the ANSPFC constructed above remains unchanged for any instance with the same number of variables. Therefore, the solution is uniform in the sense that the network, excepting the input and output nodes, may be viewed as a program according to the number of variables, we choose the filters, the splicing words and the rules, then we assign all possible values to the variables, and compute the formula.We proved that ANSP are computationally complete. Do the ANSPFC remain still computationally complete? If this is not the case, what other problems can be eficiently solved by these ANSPFCs? Moreover, the complexity class NP is exactly the class of all languages decided by ANSP in polynomial time. Can NP be characterized in a similar way with ANSPFCs?

Evaluación de la seguridad al deslizamiento de una presa de fábrica en un cimiento con una familia de discontinuidades y con un criterio de rotura con ley de fluencia no asociada

En España existen del orden de 1,300 grandes presas, de las cuales un 20% fueron construidas antes de los años 60. El hecho de que existan actualmente una gran cantidad de presas antiguas aún en operación, ha producido un creciente interés en reevaluar su seguridad empleando herramientas nuevas o modificadas que incorporan modelos de fallo teóricos más completos, conceptos geotécnicos más complejos y nuevas técnicas de evaluación de la seguridad. Una manera muy común de abordar el análisis de estabilidad de presas de gravedad es, por ejemplo, considerar el deslizamiento a través de la interfase presa-cimiento empleando el criterio de rotura lineal de Mohr-Coulomb, en donde la cohesión y el ángulo de rozamiento son los parámetros que definen la resistencia al corte de la superficie de contacto. Sin embargo la influencia de aspectos como la presencia de planos de debilidad en el macizo rocoso de cimentación; la influencia de otros criterios de rotura para la junta y para el macizo rocoso (ej. el criterio de rotura de Hoek-Brown); las deformaciones volumétricas que ocurren durante la deformación plástica en el fallo del macizo rocoso (i.e., influencia de la dilatancia) no son usualmente consideradas durante el diseño original de la presa. En este contexto, en la presente tesis doctoral se propone una metodología analítica para el análisis de la estabilidad al deslizamiento de presas de hormigón, considerando un mecanismo de fallo en la cimentación caracterizado por la presencia de una familia de discontinuidades. En particular, se considera la posibilidad de que exista una junta sub-horizontal, preexistente y persistente en el macizo rocoso de la cimentación, con una superficie potencial de fallo que se extiende a través del macizo rocoso. El coeficiente de seguridad es entonces estimado usando una combinación de las resistencias a lo largo de los planos de rotura, cuyas resistencias son evaluadas empleando los criterios de rotura no lineales de Barton y Choubey (1977) y Barton y Bandis (1990), a lo largo del plano de deslizamiento de la junta; y el criterio de rotura de Hoek y Brown (1980) en su versión generalizada (Hoek et al. 2002), a lo largo del macizo rocoso. La metodología propuesta también considera la influencia del comportamiento del macizo rocoso cuando este sigue una ley de flujo no asociada con ángulo de dilatancia constante (Hoek y Brown 1997). La nueva metodología analítica propuesta es usada para evaluar las condiciones de estabilidad empleando dos modelos: un modelo determinista y un modelo probabilista, cuyos resultados son el valor del coeficiente de seguridad y la probabilidad de fallo al deslizamiento, respectivamente. El modelo determinista, implementado en MATLAB, es validado usando soluciones numéricas calculadas mediante el método de las diferencias finitas, empleando el código FLAC 6.0. El modelo propuesto proporciona resultados que son bastante similares a aquellos calculados con FLAC; sin embargo, los costos computacionales de la formulación propuesta son significativamente menores, facilitando el análisis de sensibilidad de la influencia de los diferentes parámetros de entrada sobre la seguridad de la presa, de cuyos resultados se obtienen los parámetros que más peso tienen en la estabilidad al deslizamiento de la estructura, manifestándose además la influencia de la ley de flujo en la rotura del macizo rocoso. La probabilidad de fallo es obtenida empleando el método de fiabilidad de primer orden (First Order Reliability Method; FORM), y los resultados de FORM son posteriormente validados mediante simulaciones de Monte Carlo. Los resultados obtenidos mediante ambas metodologías demuestran que, para el caso no asociado, los valores de probabilidad de fallo se ajustan de manera satisfactoria a los obtenidos mediante las simulaciones de Monte Carlo. Los resultados del caso asociado no son tan buenos, ya que producen resultados con errores del 0.7% al 66%, en los que no obstante se obtiene una buena concordancia cuando los casos se encuentran en, o cerca de, la situación de equilibrio límite. La eficiencia computacional es la principal ventaja que ofrece el método FORM para el análisis de la estabilidad de presas de hormigón, a diferencia de las simulaciones de Monte Carlo (que requiere de al menos 4 horas por cada ejecución) FORM requiere tan solo de 1 a 3 minutos en cada ejecución. There are 1,300 large dams in Spain, 20% of which were built before 1960. The fact that there are still many old dams in operation has produced an interest of reevaluate their safety using new or updated tools that incorporate state-of-the-art failure modes, geotechnical concepts and new safety assessment techniques. For instance, for gravity dams one common design approach considers the sliding through the dam-foundation interface, using a simple linear Mohr-Coulomb failure criterion with constant friction angle and cohesion parameters. But the influence of aspects such as the persistence of joint sets in the rock mass below the dam foundation; of the influence of others failure criteria proposed for rock joint and rock masses (e.g. the Hoek-Brown criterion); or the volumetric strains that occur during plastic failure of rock masses (i.e., the influence of dilatancy) are often no considered during the original dam design. In this context, an analytical methodology is proposed herein to assess the sliding stability of concrete dams, considering an extended failure mechanism in its rock foundation, which is characterized by the presence of an inclined, and impersistent joint set. In particular, the possibility of a preexisting sub-horizontal and impersistent joint set is considered, with a potential failure surface that could extend through the rock mass; the safety factor is therefore computed using a combination of strength along the rock joint (using the nonlinear Barton and Choubey (1977) and Barton and Bandis (1990) failure criteria) and along the rock mass (using the nonlinear failure criterion of Hoek and Brown (1980) in its generalized expression from Hoek et al. (2002)). The proposed methodology also considers the influence of a non-associative flow rule that has been incorporated using a (constant) dilation angle (Hoek and Brown 1997). The newly proposed analytical methodology is used to assess the dam stability conditions, employing for this purpose the deterministic and probabilistic models, resulting in the sliding safety factor and the probability of failure respectively. The deterministic model, implemented in MATLAB, is validated using numerical solution computed with the finite difference code FLAC 6.0. The proposed deterministic model provides results that are very similar to those computed with FLAC; however, since the new formulation can be implemented in a spreadsheet, the computational cost of the proposed model is significantly smaller, hence allowing to more easily conduct parametric analyses of the influence of the different input parameters on the dam’s safety. Once the model is validated, parametric analyses are conducting using the main parameters that describe the dam’s foundation. From this study, the impact of the more influential parameters on the sliding stability analysis is obtained and the error of considering the flow rule is assessed. The probability of failure is obtained employing the First Order Reliability Method (FORM). The probabilistic model is then validated using the Monte Carlo simulation method. Results obtained using both methodologies show good agreement for cases in which the rock mass has a nonassociate flow rule. For cases with an associated flow rule errors between 0.70% and 66% are obtained, so that the better adjustments are obtained for cases with, or close to, limit equilibrium conditions. The main advantage of FORM on sliding stability analyses of gravity dams is its computational efficiency, so that Monte Carlo simulations require at least 4 hours on each execution, whereas FORM requires only 1 to 3 minutes on each execution.

Managing daily surgery schedules in a teaching hospital: a mixed-integer optimization approach

Background: This study examined the daily surgical scheduling problem in a teaching hospital. This problem relates to the use of multiple operating rooms and different types of surgeons in a typical surgical day with deterministic operation durations (preincision, incision, and postincision times). Teaching hospitals play a key role in the health-care system; however, existing models assume that the duration of surgery is independent of the surgeon's skills. This problem has not been properly addressed in other studies. We analyze the case of a Spanish public hospital, in which continuous pressures and budgeting reductions entail the more efficient use of resources. Methods: To obtain an optimal solution for this problem, we developed a mixed-integer programming model and user-friendly interface that facilitate the scheduling of planned operations for the following surgical day. We also implemented a simulation model to assist the evaluation of different dispatching policies for surgeries and surgeons. The typical aspects we took into account were the type of surgeon, potential overtime, idling time of surgeons, and the use of operating rooms. Results: It is necessary to consider the expertise of a given surgeon when formulating a schedule: such skill can decrease the probability of delays that could affect subsequent surgeries or cause cancellation of the final surgery. We obtained optimal solutions for a set of given instances, which we obtained through surgical information related to acceptable times collected from a Spanish public hospital. Conclusions: We developed a computer-aided framework with a user-friendly interface for use by a surgical manager that presents a 3-D simulation of the problem. Additionally, we obtained an efficient formulation for this complex problem. However, the spread of this kind of operation research in Spanish public health hospitals will take a long time since there is a lack of knowledge of the beneficial techniques and possibilities that operational research can offer for the health-care system.

Monitorización de la integración de sistemas intensivos software

El software se ha convertido en el eje central del mundo actual, una compleja creación humana que influye en la vida, negocios y comunicación de todas las personas pertenecientes a la Sociedad de la Información. El rápido crecimiento experimentado en el ámbito del desarrollo software ha permitido la creación de avanzadas estructuras tecnológicas, denominadas “Sistemas Intensivos Software”, capaces de comunicarse con otros sistemas, dispositivos, sensores y personas. A lo largo de los próximos años los sistemas se enfrentarán a una mayor complejidad, surgida de la necesidad de operar en entornos de grandes dimensiones y de comportamientos no deterministas. Los métodos y herramientas actuales no son lo suficientemente potentes para diseñar, construir,implementar y mantener sistemas intensivos software con estas características, y detener la construcción de sistemas intensivos software o construir sistemas poco flexibles o fiables no es una alternativa real. En el desarrollo de “Sistemas Intensivos Software” pueden llegar a intervenir distintas entidades o compañías software que suelen estar en ubicaciones geográficas distintas y constituidas por grandes equipos de desarrollo, multidisciplinares e incluso multilingües. Debido a la criticidad del resultado de las actividades realizadas de forma independiente en el sistema resultante, éstas se han de controlar y monitorizar para asegurar la correcta integración de todos los elementos del sistema completo. El objetivo de este proyecto es la creación de una herramienta software para dar soporte a la gestión y monitorización de la construcción e integración de sistemas intensivos software, siendo extensible también a proyectos de otra índole. La herramienta resultante se denomina Positioning System, una aplicación web del tipo SPA (Single Page Application) creada con tecnología de última generación como el framework JavaScript AngularJS y tecnología de back-end como SlimPHP. Positioning System provee la funcionalidad necesaria para la creación de proyectos, familias y subfamilias de productos que constituyen los productos software de los proyectos creados, así como la gestión de socios comerciales y gestión de contactos de dichos proyectos. Todas estas funcionalidades son fácilmente monitorizadas y controladas por gráficos estadísticos generados para cada proyecto. ABSTRACT Software has become the backbone of today’s world, a complex human creation that has an important impact in the life, business and communication of all people involved with the Information Society. The quick growth that software development has undergone for last years has enabled the creation of advanced technological structures called “Software Intensive Systems”. They are able to communicate with other systems, devices, sensors and people. Next years, systems will face more complexity. It arises from the need of operating systems of large dimensions with non-deterministic behaviors. Current methods and tools are not powerful enough to design, build, implement and maintain software intensive systems; however stopping the development or developing unreliable and non-flexible systems is not a real alternative. Software Intensive Systems” development may involve different entities or software companies which may be in different geographical locations and may be constituted by large, multidisciplinary and even multilingual development teams. Due to the criticality of the result of each conducted activity, independently in the resulting system, these activities must be controlled and monitored to ensure the proper integration of all the elements within the complete system. The goal of this project is the creation of a software tool to support the management and monitoring of the construction and integration of software intensive systems, being possible to be extended to other kind of projects. The resultant tool is called Positioning System, a web application that follows the SPA (Single Page Application) style. It was created with the latest technologies, such as, the AngularJS framework and SlimPHP. The Positioning System provides the necessary features for the creation of projects, families and subfamilies of products that constitute the software products of the created projects, as well as the management of business partners and contacts of these projects. All these features are easily monitored and controlled by statistical graphs generated for each project.

Effects of the water level on the flow topology over the Bolund island.

We have analyzed the influence of the actual height of Bolund island above water level on different full-scale statistics of the velocity field over the peninsula. Our analysis is focused on the database of 10-minute statistics provided by Risø-DTU for the Bolund Blind Experiment. We have considered 10-minut.e periods with near-neutral atmospheric conditions, mean wind speed values in the interval [5,20] m/s, and westerly wind directions. As expected, statistics such as speed-up, normalized increase of turbulent kinetic energy and probability of recirculating flow show a large dependence on the emerged height of the island for the locations close to the escarpment. For the published ensemble mean values of speed-up and normalized increase of turbulent kinetic energy in these locations, we propose that some ammount of uncertainty could be explained as a deterministic dependence of the flow field statistics upon the actual height of the Bolund island above the sea level.

Desarrollos metodológicos y aplicaciones hacia el cálculo de la peligrosidad sísmica en el ecuador continental y estudio de riesgo sísmico en la ciudad de Quito

En el presente trabajo de tesis se desarrolla, en primer lugar, un estudio de peligrosidad sísmica en Ecuador continental, siguiendo una metodología probabilista zonificada. El estudio se plantea a escala regional y presenta como principales aportaciones: 1) la elaboración de un Estado del Arte sobre Tectónica y Geología de Ecuador, concluyendo con la identificación de las principales fuentes sísmicas; 2) La confección de un Catálogo Sísmico de proyecto, recopilando información de distintas agencias, que ha sido homogeneizado a magnitud momento, Mw, depurado de réplicas y premonitores y corregido por la falta de completitud para la estimación de tasas en diferentes rangos de magnitud; 3) la propuesta de un nueva zonificación sísmica, definiendo las zonas sismogenéticas en tres regímenes tectónicos: cortical, subducción interfase y subducción in-slab; 4) la caracterización sísmica de cada zona estimando los parámetros de recurrencia y Magnitud Máxima (Mmax), considerando para este último parámetro una distribución de valores posibles en función de la sismicidad y tectónica, tras un exhaustivo análisis de los datos existentes; 5) la generación de mapas de peligrosidad sísmica de Ecuador continental en términos de aceleración pico (PGA) y espectral SA (T= 1s) , en ambos casos para periodos de retorno (PR) de 475, 975 y 2475 años; 6) La estimación de espectros de peligrosidad uniforme (UHS) y sismos de control mediante desagregación de la peligrosidad, para PR de 475 y 2475 años en 4 capitales de provincia: Quito, Esmeraldas, Guayaquil y Loja. Una segunda parte del trabajo se destina al cálculo del riesgo sísmico en el Barrio Mariscal Sucre de Quito, lo que supone incidir ya a una escala municipal. Como principales contribuciones de este trabajo se destacan: 1) definición del escenario sísmico que más contribuye a la peligrosidad en Quito, que actuará como input de cálculo del riesgo; 2) caracterización de la acción sísmica asociada a ese escenario, incluyendo resultados de microzonación y efecto local en la zona de estudio; 3) Elaboración de una Base de Datos partiendo de información catastral e identificación de las tipologías dominantes; 4) Asignación de clases de vulnerabilidad y obtención de porcentajes de daño esperado en cada clase ante la acción sísmica definida previamente, con la consiguiente representación de mapas de vulnerabilidad y daño; 5) mapas de indicadores globales del riesgo sísmico; 6) Base de datos georreferenciada con toda la información generada en el estudio. Cabe destacar que el trabajo, aunque no formula nuevos métodos, si plantea una metodología integral de cálculo del riesgo sísmico, incorporando avances en cada fase abordada, desde la estimación de la peligrosidad o la definición de escenarios sísmicos con carácter hibrido (probabilista-determinista), hasta la asignación de vulnerabilidades y estimación de escenarios de daño. Esta tesis trata de presentar contribuciones hacia el mejor conocimiento de la peligrosidad sísmica en Ecuador y el riesgo sísmico en Quito, siendo uno de los primeros estudios de tesis que se desarrolla sobre estos temas en el país. El trabajo puede servir de ejemplo y punto de partida para estudios futuros; además de ser replicable en otras ciudades y municipios de Ecuador. -------------------- ABSTRACT: ------------------ This thesis first develops a study of seismic hazard in mainland Ecuador, following a zoned, probabilistic methodology. The study considers a regional scale and presents as main contributions: 1) The development of a State of Art on the Tectonics and Geology of Ecuador, concluding with the identification of the main seismic sources; 2) The creation of a Seismic Catalog project, collecting information from different agencies, which has been homogenized to Moment magnitude, Mw, purged from aftershocks and premonitories and corrected for the lack of completeness to estimate rates in different maggnitude ranges; 3) The proposal of a new seismic zoning, defining the seismogenic zones in three tectonic regimes: cortical, subduction interface and subduction in-slab; 4) The seismic characterization of each zone, estimating the parameters of recurrence and Maximum Magnitude (Mmax), considering the latter as a distribution of possible values, depending on the seismicity and tectonics, and after a thorough analysis of the existing data; 5) Seismic hazard maps of continental Ecuador in terms of peak ground acceleration (PGA) and spectral SA(T=1), and return periods (PR) of 475, 975 and 2475 years; 6) Uniform hazard spectra (UHS) and control earthquakes obtained by hazard disaggregation, for PR 475 and 2475 years in four provincial capitals: Quito, Esmeraldas, Guayaquil and Loja. The second section focuses on the calculation of seismic risk in the Quito Mariscal Sucre parish, which is already supposed to be influencing at a municipal level. The main contributions here are the: 1) Definition of the seismic scenario that contributes most to the hazard in Quito, which acts as an input in the risk calculation; 2) Characterization of the seismic action associated with that scenario, including results of micro-zoning and local effect in the study area; 3) Development of a database, based on cadastral data and identification of key typologies; 4) Allocation of vulnerability classes and obtaining percentages of damage expected in each class faced with the seismic action previously defined, with the consequent representation of maps of vulnerability and damage; 5) Global maps of seismic risk indicators; 6) Geo-referenced database with all the information generated in the study. It should be noted that although new methods are not prescribed, this study does set a comprehensive methodology for the calculation of seismic risk, incorporating advances in each phase approached, from the hazard estimation, or definition of seismic scenarios applying a hybrid (deterministic-probabilistic) method, to the allocation of vulnerabilities and estimation of damage scenarios. This thesis aims to present contributions leading to a better understanding of seismic hazard in Ecuador and seismic risk in Quito, and is one of the first studies in the country to develop such themes. This study can serve as an example and starting point for future studies, which could replicate this methodology in other cities and municipalities.