Is real GDP stationary? Evidence from a panel unit root test with cross-sectional dependence and historical data

We use historical data that cover more than one century on real GDP for industrial countries and employ the Pesaran panel unit root test that allows for cross-sectional dependence to test for a unit root on real GDP. We find strong evidence against the unit root null. Our results are robust to the chosen group of countries and the sample period. Key words: real GDP stationarity, cross-sectional dependence, CIPS test. JEL Classification: C23, E32

An examination of male and female odds ratios by BMI, cigarette smoking, and alcohol consumption for cancers of the oral cavity, pharynx, and larynx in pooled data from 15 case-control studies.

BACKGROUND: Greater tobacco smoking and alcohol consumption and lower body mass index (BMI) increase odds ratios (OR) for oral cavity, oropharyngeal, hypopharyngeal, and laryngeal cancers; however, there are no comprehensive sex-specific comparisons of ORs for these factors. METHODS: We analyzed 2,441 oral cavity (925 women and 1,516 men), 2,297 oropharynx (564 women and 1,733 men), 508 hypopharynx (96 women and 412 men), and 1,740 larynx (237 women and 1,503 men) cases from the INHANCE consortium of 15 head and neck cancer case-control studies. Controls numbered from 7,604 to 13,829 subjects, depending on analysis. Analyses fitted linear-exponential excess ORs models. RESULTS: ORs were increased in underweight (<18.5 BMI) relative to normal weight (18.5-24.9) and reduced in overweight and obese categories (>/=25 BMI) for all sites and were homogeneous by sex. ORs by smoking and drinking in women compared with men were significantly greater for oropharyngeal cancer (p < 0.01 for both factors), suggestive for hypopharyngeal cancer (p = 0.05 and p = 0.06, respectively), but homogeneous for oral cavity (p = 0.56 and p = 0.64) and laryngeal (p = 0.18 and p = 0.72) cancers. CONCLUSIONS: The extent that OR modifications of smoking and drinking by sex for oropharyngeal and, possibly, hypopharyngeal cancers represent true associations, or derive from unmeasured confounders or unobserved sex-related disease subtypes (e.g., human papillomavirus-positive oropharyngeal cancer) remains to be clarified.

Quantitative integration of geophysical and hydraulic data : from the local towards the regional scale range

Des progrès significatifs ont été réalisés dans le domaine de l'intégration quantitative des données géophysique et hydrologique l'échelle locale. Cependant, l'extension à de plus grandes échelles des approches correspondantes constitue encore un défi majeur. Il est néanmoins extrêmement important de relever ce défi pour développer des modèles fiables de flux des eaux souterraines et de transport de contaminant. Pour résoudre ce problème, j'ai développé une technique d'intégration des données hydrogéophysiques basée sur une procédure bayésienne de simulation séquentielle en deux étapes. Cette procédure vise des problèmes à plus grande échelle. L'objectif est de simuler la distribution d'un paramètre hydraulique cible à partir, d'une part, de mesures d'un paramètre géophysique pertinent qui couvrent l'espace de manière exhaustive, mais avec une faible résolution (spatiale) et, d'autre part, de mesures locales de très haute résolution des mêmes paramètres géophysique et hydraulique. Pour cela, mon algorithme lie dans un premier temps les données géophysiques de faible et de haute résolution à travers une procédure de réduction déchelle. Les données géophysiques régionales réduites sont ensuite reliées au champ du paramètre hydraulique à haute résolution. J'illustre d'abord l'application de cette nouvelle approche dintégration des données à une base de données synthétiques réaliste. Celle-ci est constituée de mesures de conductivité hydraulique et électrique de haute résolution réalisées dans les mêmes forages ainsi que destimations des conductivités électriques obtenues à partir de mesures de tomographic de résistivité électrique (ERT) sur l'ensemble de l'espace. Ces dernières mesures ont une faible résolution spatiale. La viabilité globale de cette méthode est testée en effectuant les simulations de flux et de transport au travers du modèle original du champ de conductivité hydraulique ainsi que du modèle simulé. Les simulations sont alors comparées. Les résultats obtenus indiquent que la procédure dintégration des données proposée permet d'obtenir des estimations de la conductivité en adéquation avec la structure à grande échelle ainsi que des predictions fiables des caractéristiques de transports sur des distances de moyenne à grande échelle. Les résultats correspondant au scénario de terrain indiquent que l'approche d'intégration des données nouvellement mise au point est capable d'appréhender correctement les hétérogénéitées à petite échelle aussi bien que les tendances à gande échelle du champ hydraulique prévalent. Les résultats montrent également une flexibilté remarquable et une robustesse de cette nouvelle approche dintégration des données. De ce fait, elle est susceptible d'être appliquée à un large éventail de données géophysiques et hydrologiques, à toutes les gammes déchelles. Dans la deuxième partie de ma thèse, j'évalue en détail la viabilité du réechantillonnage geostatique séquentiel comme mécanisme de proposition pour les méthodes Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) appliquées à des probmes inverses géophysiques et hydrologiques de grande dimension . L'objectif est de permettre une quantification plus précise et plus réaliste des incertitudes associées aux modèles obtenus. En considérant une série dexemples de tomographic radar puits à puits, j'étudie deux classes de stratégies de rééchantillonnage spatial en considérant leur habilité à générer efficacement et précisément des réalisations de la distribution postérieure bayésienne. Les résultats obtenus montrent que, malgré sa popularité, le réechantillonnage séquentiel est plutôt inefficace à générer des échantillons postérieurs indépendants pour des études de cas synthétiques réalistes, notamment pour le cas assez communs et importants où il existe de fortes corrélations spatiales entre le modèle et les paramètres. Pour résoudre ce problème, j'ai développé un nouvelle approche de perturbation basée sur une déformation progressive. Cette approche est flexible en ce qui concerne le nombre de paramètres du modèle et lintensité de la perturbation. Par rapport au rééchantillonage séquentiel, cette nouvelle approche s'avère être très efficace pour diminuer le nombre requis d'itérations pour générer des échantillons indépendants à partir de la distribution postérieure bayésienne. - Significant progress has been made with regard to the quantitative integration of geophysical and hydrological data at the local scale. However, extending corresponding approaches beyond the local scale still represents a major challenge, yet is critically important for the development of reliable groundwater flow and contaminant transport models. To address this issue, I have developed a hydrogeophysical data integration technique based on a two-step Bayesian sequential simulation procedure that is specifically targeted towards larger-scale problems. The objective is to simulate the distribution of a target hydraulic parameter based on spatially exhaustive, but poorly resolved, measurements of a pertinent geophysical parameter and locally highly resolved, but spatially sparse, measurements of the considered geophysical and hydraulic parameters. To this end, my algorithm links the low- and high-resolution geophysical data via a downscaling procedure before relating the downscaled regional-scale geophysical data to the high-resolution hydraulic parameter field. I first illustrate the application of this novel data integration approach to a realistic synthetic database consisting of collocated high-resolution borehole measurements of the hydraulic and electrical conductivities and spatially exhaustive, low-resolution electrical conductivity estimates obtained from electrical resistivity tomography (ERT). The overall viability of this method is tested and verified by performing and comparing flow and transport simulations through the original and simulated hydraulic conductivity fields. The corresponding results indicate that the proposed data integration procedure does indeed allow for obtaining faithful estimates of the larger-scale hydraulic conductivity structure and reliable predictions of the transport characteristics over medium- to regional-scale distances. The approach is then applied to a corresponding field scenario consisting of collocated high- resolution measurements of the electrical conductivity, as measured using a cone penetrometer testing (CPT) system, and the hydraulic conductivity, as estimated from electromagnetic flowmeter and slug test measurements, in combination with spatially exhaustive low-resolution electrical conductivity estimates obtained from surface-based electrical resistivity tomography (ERT). The corresponding results indicate that the newly developed data integration approach is indeed capable of adequately capturing both the small-scale heterogeneity as well as the larger-scale trend of the prevailing hydraulic conductivity field. The results also indicate that this novel data integration approach is remarkably flexible and robust and hence can be expected to be applicable to a wide range of geophysical and hydrological data at all scale ranges. In the second part of my thesis, I evaluate in detail the viability of sequential geostatistical resampling as a proposal mechanism for Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods applied to high-dimensional geophysical and hydrological inverse problems in order to allow for a more accurate and realistic quantification of the uncertainty associated with the thus inferred models. Focusing on a series of pertinent crosshole georadar tomographic examples, I investigated two classes of geostatistical resampling strategies with regard to their ability to efficiently and accurately generate independent realizations from the Bayesian posterior distribution. The corresponding results indicate that, despite its popularity, sequential resampling is rather inefficient at drawing independent posterior samples for realistic synthetic case studies, notably for the practically common and important scenario of pronounced spatial correlation between model parameters. To address this issue, I have developed a new gradual-deformation-based perturbation approach, which is flexible with regard to the number of model parameters as well as the perturbation strength. Compared to sequential resampling, this newly proposed approach was proven to be highly effective in decreasing the number of iterations required for drawing independent samples from the Bayesian posterior distribution.

Health and Social Care: Comparative Data for Northern Ireland and other Countries - May 2004 (PDF 121 KB)

Health and Social Care: Comparative Data for Northern Ireland and other Countries - May 2004

Testing kin selection with sex allocation data in eusocial hymenoptera

Sex allocation data in eusocial Hymenoptera (ants, bees and wasps) provide an excellent opportunity to assess the effectiveness of kin selection, because queens and workers differ in their relatedness to females and males. The first studies on sex allocation in eusocial Hymenoptera compared population sex investment ratios across species. Female-biased investment in monogyne (= with single-queen colonies) populations of ants suggested that workers manipulate sex allocation according to their higher relatedness to females than males (relatedness asymmetry). However, several factors may confound these comparisons across species. First, variation in relatedness asymmetry is typically associated with major changes in breeding system and life history that may also affect sex allocation. Secondly, the relative cost of females and males is difficult to estimate across sexually dimorphic taxa, such as ants. Thirdly, each species in the comparison may not represent an independent data point, because of phylogenetic relationships among species. Recently, stronger evidence that workers control sex allocation has been provided by intraspecific studies of sex ratio variation across colonies. In several species of eusocial Hymenoptera, colonies with high relatedness asymmetry produced mostly females, in contrast to colonies with low relatedness asymmetry which produced mostly males. Additional signs of worker control were found by investigating proximate mechanisms of sex ratio manipulation in ants and wasps. However, worker control is not always effective, and further manipulative experiments will be needed to disentangle the multiple evolutionary factors and processes affecting sex allocation in eusocial Hymenoptera.

GLUT4, AMP kinase, but not the insulin receptor, are required for hepatoportal glucose sensor-stimulated muscle glucose utilization.

Recent evidence suggests the existence of a hepatoportal vein glucose sensor, whose activation leads to enhanced glucose use in skeletal muscle, heart, and brown adipose tissue. The mechanism leading to this increase in whole body glucose clearance is not known, but previous data suggest that it is insulin independent. Here, we sought to further determine the portal sensor signaling pathway by selectively evaluating its dependence on muscle GLUT4, insulin receptor, and the evolutionarily conserved sensor of metabolic stress, AMP-activated protein kinase (AMPK). We demonstrate that the increase in muscle glucose use was suppressed in mice lacking the expression of GLUT4 in the organ muscle. In contrast, glucose use was stimulated normally in mice with muscle-specific inactivation of the insulin receptor gene, confirming independence from insulin-signaling pathways. Most importantly, the muscle glucose use in response to activation of the hepatoportal vein glucose sensor was completely dependent on the activity of AMPK, because enhanced hexose disposal was prevented by expression of a dominant negative AMPK in muscle. These data demonstrate that the portal sensor induces glucose use and development of hypoglycemia independently of insulin action, but by a mechanism that requires activation of the AMPK and the presence of GLUT4.

Hepatosplenic schistosomiasis in field-based studies: a combined clinical and sonographic definition

A combined clinical and sonographic classification of hepatosplenic schistosomiasis mansoni to be used in field-based studies is proposed herein. Seven hundred forty one individuals out of 892 (83%), living in an area endemic for schistosomiasis in Brazil, have been ubmitted to clinical and ultrasound examinations. Based on two stool examinations the overall prevalence for schistosomiasis in this area was 73%. Abdominal palpation was performed with patients in dorsal decubit, during deep breath, by two experienced physicians and a portable ultrasound was used for the evaluation of liver fibrosis, portal collaterals and spleen size. Four groups of individuals were identified using data obtained by abdominal palpation and ultrasound examination: (1) palpable spleen and intense periportal thickening in 9 individuals (1.2%); (2) spleen not palpable and intense periportal thickening in 15 (2%); (3) palpable spleen with light to moderate periportal thickening in 32 (4.3%), and (4) palpable spleen with a normal liver on ultrasound in 30 (4%). The definition of hepatosplenic schistosomiasis in field-based studies as the finding of Schistosoma mansoni eggs in the stools in an individual with splenomegaly is not acceptable anymore. Abdominal ultrasound should be combined with clinical examination to accurately identify hepatosplenics in endemic areas for schistosomiasis.

Ecological Data of Travassosnema travassosi travassosi (Dracunculoidea: Guyanemidae) from the Humour of the Eyes of Acestrorhynchus lacustris from Tibagi River, Paraná, Brazil

Data obtained between 1990 and 1995 provide, for the first time, ecological information of the parasitic nematode Travassosnema travassosi travassosi Costa, Moreira & Oliveira, 1991 from Acestrorhynchus lacustris (Characiformes: Acestrorhynchidae) collected in the Tibagi River, Sertanópolis, Paraná, Brazil. These nematode occurred with low prevalences (7.7% to 28.6%) and intensities (1 to 3) during almost the whole year. The observation of mature females throughout the year indicate that liberation of larvae can occur during all the year around. This is the first report on the occurrence of T. travassosi travassosi inside the eyes. These nematodes were mostly located in humour of the eyes (87% of cases), being less frequently detected in tissues behind the eyes (13% of cases).

Carcinomes canalaires in situ: données anatomo-pathologiques actuelles [Ductal carcinoma in situ: current anatomo-pathologic data]

Ductal carcinoma in situ (DCIS), accounting for 15-25% of all breast cancers, is frequently diagnosed by mammographic examination. This heterogeneous disease requires a rigorous local treatment based, in about two-third of cases, on conservative surgery and radiotherapy. DCIS are currently classified on the basis of nuclear grade. Most lesions, and especially high nuclear grade DCIS, are limited to one quadrant. Micropapillary DCIS are likely to be of larger size/extent and thus a conservative approach is often difficult. A careful pathological examination of an oriented excisional biopsy is a pre-requisite for optimal therapy.

Gut-derived signaling molecules and vagal afferents in the control of glucose and energy homeostasis.

PURPOSE OF REVIEW: The control of glucose and energy homeostasis, including feeding behaviour, is tightly regulated by gut-derived peptidic and nonpeptidic endocrine mediators, autonomic nervous signals, as well as nutrients such as glucose. We will review recent findings on the role of the gastrointestinal tract innervation and of portal vein glucose sensors; we will review selected data on the action of gastrointestinally released hormones. RECENT FINDINGS: The involvement of mechanosensory vagal afferents in postprandial meal termination has been clarified using mouse models with selective impairments of genes required for development of mechanosensory fibres. These activate central glucogen-like peptide-1/glucogen-like peptide-2 containing ascending pathways linking the visceroceptive brainstem neurons to hypothalamic nuclei. Mucosal terminals comprise the chemosensory vagal afferents responsive to postprandially released gastrointestinal hormones. The mechanism by which the hepatoportal glucose sensor stimulates glucose utilization by muscles was demonstrated, using genetically modified mice, to be insulin-independent but to require GLUT4 and AMP-kinase. This sensor is a key site of glucogen-like peptide-1 action and plays a critical role in triggering first phase insulin secretion. PeptideYY and ghrelin target intracerebral receptors as they are bidirectionally transported across the blood brain barrier. The anorectic functions of peripherally released peptideYY may however be mediated both via vagal afferents and intracerebral Y2 receptors in the brainstem and arcuate nucleus. SUMMARY: These recent findings demonstrate that the use of improved anatomical and physiological techniques and animal models with targeted gene modifications lead to an improved understanding of the complex role of gastrointestinal signals in the control of energy homeostasis.

Multiple-scale hydrological and geophysical data integration through non-linear Bayesian sequential simulation

Significant progress has been made with regard to the quantitative integration of geophysical and hydrological data at the local scale. However, extending the corresponding approaches to the scale of a field site represents a major, and as-of-yet largely unresolved, challenge. To address this problem, we have developed downscaling procedure based on a non-linear Bayesian sequential simulation approach. The main objective of this algorithm is to estimate the value of the sparsely sampled hydraulic conductivity at non-sampled locations based on its relation to the electrical conductivity logged at collocated wells and surface resistivity measurements, which are available throughout the studied site. The in situ relationship between the hydraulic and electrical conductivities is described through a non-parametric multivariatekernel density function. Then a stochastic integration of low-resolution, large-scale electrical resistivity tomography (ERT) data in combination with high-resolution, local-scale downhole measurements of the hydraulic and electrical conductivities is applied. The overall viability of this downscaling approach is tested and validated by comparing flow and transport simulation through the original and the upscaled hydraulic conductivity fields. Our results indicate that the proposed procedure allows obtaining remarkably faithful estimates of the regional-scale hydraulic conductivity structure and correspondingly reliable predictions of the transport characteristics over relatively long distances.